For all those worried about swine flu right now...
Im really getting annoyed at the media coverage. Il point out the reasons this virus CANNOT become another 1918 style mass killer.
1. The basic one, a virus will only evolve/mutate when it deems it necessary to increase its transfer rate, and guaruntee its survival. Right now its doing a 99 percent perfect job of both of those, it has no need to evolve. Its highly contageous, and is being passed around perfectly.
2. A very deadly virus gives itself a problem. It kills the host. If the virus kills the host, it doesnt infect as many people, so its counter productive to the virus to mutate into this form.
3. In 2005, a team of scientists from Mount Sinai medical school rebuilt the 1918 influenza strain using fragments of old lung tissue from the victims of that strain. It was noted this is such a rare occurence, once in a 10 millenia. And that was the very worst a flu virus can get. Even faced with that virus again, nowhere near that number would die. After world war 2, poverty was rife, awful sanitary conditions, zero anti virals etc.... and squalid conditions meant that the virus passed through the very unhealthy population in comparison with todays people, incredibly quickly and violently. If that strain ever made another pass at us, the death count would be at least three quarters less than it was then. At least.
4. Flu chromosomes are quite simple — eight short strands of RNA that issue the genetic code for a grand total of 11 proteins. They break apart in a jumble inside cells they infect, and then they reassemble, picking up random bits of other flus, which makes the results unpredictable. The swine flu strain lacks several genes known to increase lethality, including those that code for two proteins known as PB1-F2 and NS-1, and one that codes for a tongue-twister called the polybasic hemagglutinin cleavage site.
PB1-F2 appears to weaken the protective membrane of the energy-producing mitochondria in an infected cell, ultimately killing the cell. Specifically, it attacks dendritic cells, the sentinels of the immune system. Its lethality could be accidental — a protein good at killing sentries might just go on killing other cells once inside the fort. All pandemic flus, including those of the Spanish, Hong Kong and Asian flus, make PB1-F2. So does the H5N1 bird flu. The current swine strain does not. The NS-1 protein also maims the immune response by blocking interferon, an antiviral protein made by cells. Hence the fact there are NO cytokine storms in any of the victims.
Basically.... This virus cannot even mutate into something as bad as the hong kong or asian flu, let alone the spanish influenza of 1918! Worst case scenario? It becomes resistant to tamiflu, which wouldnt be great, but since hardly anyone in the US is being given tamiflu out of the several million suspected cases they have had already, with only 30 deaths or so, most in previously ill people, its really nothing to be incredibly worried about. Right now its weaker than regular seasonal flu. And scientists cant see it getting any worse, it pretty much cant. The media have made the biggest crisis out of this as they can, and im sick of hearing two bit "experts" instead of the scientists who actually know about the virus.
Just my 2 cents, but hopefully it will reassure some of you.
Oh and.... just for kicks....
Lets try and keep things in perspectiveits not a serious illness. Promise
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Originally Posted by Donski
thank you
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