Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

[Lencoboy]

I know I may sound a bit on the negative side here, but I (an no doubt many others) am finding the frequent 'chopping and changing' of CV stats here in the UK every few days extremely confusing to say the least. Yesterday they said that the number of both newly confirmed CV cases and fatalities had slowed a bit, or at least levelled off for three consecutive days, and now there is mention of the ONS coming on board and adding further to the stats, with deaths occurring (and having occurred) in non-hospital environments. Not to mention the fact that changes were already made last Thursday (26th March) to include the full 24-hour period instead of the previous 12-hour period, which could very well have been one of the factors responsible for the sudden 'jump' in both CV-related deaths and newly-confirmed 'active' cases, and now this added on top.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not in anyway complaining, just extremely miffed.

[Scass]

I seem to remember this happening with China too. It’s really sad isn’t it.

[Lencoboy]

I suppose it's in order to try and make the stats more representative.

Mind you, this latest 'record jump' in new cases and deaths reported by the press will obviously make for more exciting reading as usual, as far as editorial teams are concerned.

[Lencoboy]

There seems to be a lot of inconsistency on the reporting of all of this at the moment as some sources have suggested that the record rises of both CV cases and deaths since yesterday were could have been partly attributed to the changes in the way the stats are counted, whilst others just seem to be stating them on a 'face value' basis with no real explanation, as if it is a genuine 'record jump' in actual cases/deaths and inadvertently having digs at the authorities, etc. Even the BBC seem to be at it ATM. So confusing.

[glassgirlw]

Quite honestly over here in the states I’ve just stopped looking at the numbers. We know it’s going to continually rise over the next few weeks so I’m hoping that as it does, if I don’t focus so much on the numbers maybe it will keep my anxiety a little more in line over it all. Maybe not, but we’ll see.

[Lencoboy]

Quite honestly over here in the states I’ve just stopped looking at the numbers. We know it’s going to continually rise over the next few weeks so I’m hoping that as it does, if I don’t focus so much on the numbers maybe it will keep my anxiety a little more in line over it all. Maybe not, but we’ll see.

And here they still seem to be downplaying the total recovery rates, as if there is some kind of hidden agenda involved (which I could be completely wrong, of course), and at the expense of many people's mental health.

[Pamplemousse]

There seems to be a lot of inconsistency on the reporting of all of this at the moment as some sources have suggested that the record rises of both CV cases and deaths since yesterday were could have been partly attributed to the changes in the way the stats are counted, whilst others just seem to be stating them on a 'face value' basis with no real explanation, as if it is a genuine 'record jump' in actual cases/deaths and inadvertently having digs at the authorities, etc. Even the BBC seem to be at it ATM. So confusing.

Even bigger rises today: 4,324/563. The inconsistency of how they are counting these is a problem.

[Lencoboy]

Even bigger rises today: 4,324/563. The inconsistency of how they are counting these is a problem.

That's exactly the problem all along, as nothing really seem to be telling us as to whether it's genuine or accountable for the latest changes, it's all seemingly very vague.

Sadly it's even more fodder for both the media and certain factions of our society who seem to revel in the 'worst-case scenario' narratives, CV or not.

Anyway, I'll shut up now!

[dorabella]

Johns Hopkins figures on recovery are more up to date - 179 rather than Worldometer's 135.

Even so, given the ever-changing methodology of accumulating data it's hard to make out what the situation is in the UK. Because they are NOT TESTING anyone except those poor souls who end up in hospital. Surely better to concentrate on antibody testing - as the Oxford study recommends - to work out the greater mass of the population who have had it, rule them out, and then concentrate on treating the remainder.

Rational thinking would surely tend towards the possibility that a lot of people had this virus earlier in the year - back in February and even January - but mistook it for seasonal cold and mild flu. They are all extensions of the same virus group. Surely better to rule these cases out - and let some of the population get back into working and getting business back on its feet. The lockdowns in Italy and Spain have taken their toll of shutting both infected and asymptomatic people up together and creating perfect conditions for viral spread. The China case was total lockdown under a strict regime and it did widespread testing of the Wuhan and Hubei populations, but Europe was too slack in enforcing these kind of measures and allowed unrestricted travel and movement of people whilst they were making their minds up to it.

Only Germany seems to have had the nouse to adopt the Oxford methodology ... vorsprung durch teknik!

And yes the media are loving this easy news feed of apocalyptic scenarios and skewed data.

[Lencoboy]

Johns Hopkins figures on recovery are more up to date - 179 rather than Worldometer's 135.

Even so, given the ever-changing methodology of accumulating data it's hard to make out what the situation is in the UK. Because they are NOT TESTING anyone except those poor souls who end up in hospital. Surely better to concentrate on antibody testing - as the Oxford study recommends - to work out the greater mass of the population who have had it, rule them out, and then concentrate on treating the remainder.

Rational thinking would surely tend towards the possibility that a lot of people had this virus earlier in the year - back in February and even January - but mistook it for seasonal cold and mild flu. They are all extensions of the same virus group. Surely better to rule these cases out - and let some of the population get back into working and getting business back on its feet. The lockdowns in Italy and Spain have taken their toll of shutting both infected and asymptomatic people up together and creating perfect conditions for viral spread. The China case was total lockdown under a strict regime and it did widespread testing of the Wuhan and Hubei populations, but Europe was too slack in enforcing these kind of measures and allowed unrestricted travel and movement of people whilst they were making their minds up to it.

Only Germany seems to have had the nouse to adopt the Oxford methodology ... vorsprung durch teknik!

And yes the media are loving this easy news feed of apocalyptic scenarios and skewed data.

As I've said before in other CV-related threads on here, It is very likely that myself and my parents had CV back in February (and mistook it for the 'normal' cold/flu) for just over a fortnight in total and then recovered, but my brother somehow wasn't convinced at the time as he said that we would have probably have felt like we were almost dying and feeling virtually unable to move had we actually had CV, but then again he admitted to having mild CV-like symptoms last week and has now more or less recovered and didn't ring NHS 111, but still followed all the other recommended self-isolation procedures.

I know I am sounding like a pessimist here, but it does seem like the authorities here in the UK have been dragging their heels over a lot of the antibody testing, which as you said, might help to define the situation a lot better, which would in turn lead to more stats on recoveries being published and certain restrictions pertaining to the current lockdowns possibly being eased, with those who were previously affected but now fully recovered being able to return to work, etc. And I also wish we had entered our lockdown at least one week earlier than we actually did, which would have probably slowed the spread much quicker.

Still the 'makeshift' Nightingale Hospital at the ExCel Centre in London will be opening at the end of this week, and others are now in the process of being set up in or near other major cities throughout the country, which should hopefully help to ease the pressures on existing facilities.

And another likely reason for the sudden jump in newly-confirmed CV cases since yesterday (and Monday's figures also subsequently being revised upwards) could be that more people have been tested for the virus once again, which seems to have been rather on the erratic side over the past few weeks, again, another inconsistency.

[Call me Edwin]

The "recovery stats" in the UK of 135, or 179 if you prefer, are completely unrealistic.
For example, we know that Prince Charles has recovered. So has TV newsreader George Alagiah (in spite of 6 years of chemo!) These are people who have definitely tested positive. So 2 out of the 179 who have "recovered" are celebrities while none of the 2,000 dead are celebrities? It doesn't bear scrutiny. Theferore, a LOT more people have recovered, including tens of thousands who have self-isolated and so were never diagnosed.

[Gary A]

Recent studies have suggested that as much as 50% of people infected with Covid-19 show no symptoms. The data was studied from cruise ships, which of course meant everyone on board was tested. Consistently this has shown that 50% of infected individuals show no obvious symptoms.

You can absolutely apply that to general population. Factor in “mild” cases which don’t require hospitalisation, then apply asymptomatic cases and that number is actually going to be quite staggering.

It’s actually very intuitive when you think about it. The rate of spread of infection is absolutely mind boggling, it really is utterly plausible to think that there were huge volumes of people walking around with this virus that didn’t even know it. How else could it spread so rapidly and go so undetected?

I really am interested to see the results of antibody testing here in the UK and elsewhere.

[glassgirlw]

I read an article on that earlier as well, Gary. I agree that it will be interesting to see the antibody tests!! I have a feeling there is an astronomical number of people that either had this with no symptoms or had this and thought it was a cold.

[Gary A]

I read an article on that earlier as well, Gary. I agree that it will be interesting to see the antibody tests!! I have a feeling there is an astronomical number of people that either had this with no symptoms or had this and thought it was a cold.

I have to say, the UK and US governments have made an absolute pigs ear of this. From Trumps downplaying to Boris and his “herd immunity” nonsense, the dithering has seen this virus absolutely cripple our entire infrastructure and it has undoubtedly cost lives.

Now we appear to be in a position that they’ve finally woken up to the fact that testing for this virus is the most important part of combatting it but what a cost this has come at.

Test, isolate and trace contacts. The Germans and South Koreans have been doing it since day dot and look how much better they are for it. When all is said and done with this virus, I really hope both nations make sure they’ve learned a valuable lesson.

[dorabella]

As I've said before in other CV-related threads on here, It is very likely that myself and my parents had CV back in February (and mistook it for the 'normal' cold/flu) for just over a fortnight in total and then recovered, but my brother somehow wasn't convinced at the time as he said that we would have probably have felt like we were almost dying and feeling virtually unable to move had we actually had CV, but then again he admitted to having mild CV-like symptoms last week and has now more or less recovered and didn't ring NHS 111, but still followed all the other recommended self-isolation procedures.

I know I am sounding like a pessimist here, but it does seem like the authorities here in the UK have been dragging their heels over a lot of the antibody testing, which as you said, might help to define the situation a lot better, which would in turn lead to more stats on recoveries being published and certain restrictions pertaining to the current lockdowns possibly being eased, with those who were previously affected but now fully recovered being able to return to work, etc. And I also wish we had entered our lockdown at least one week earlier than we actually did, which would have probably slowed the spread much quicker.

Still the 'makeshift' Nightingale Hospital at the ExCel Centre in London will be opening at the end of this week, and others are now in the process of being set up in or near other major cities throughout the country, which should hopefully help to ease the pressures on existing facilities.

And another likely reason for the sudden jump in newly-confirmed CV cases since yesterday (and Monday's figures also subsequently being revised upwards) could be that more people have been tested for the virus once again, which seems to have been rather on the erratic side over the past few weeks, again, another inconsistency.


Like you I too had two doses of what I thought was the usual winter bugs - although I hadn't had a dose for about 5 years previously. One mild dose in January, and a heavier dose in early February. Second dose had slight fever days 1 and 2, followed by the dry cough which turned into a wet cough and plagued me for nearly 3 weeks. Also had 4-5 days of loss of smell and taste - and have never lost both together with a winter bug. I work on a university campus in London and needless to say all of this coincided with the return of UK, European and international students (a lot of Chinese) from Christmas/New Year break. Too much of a coincidence??

[Gary A]

Like you I too had two doses of what I thought was the usual winter bugs - although I hadn't had a dose for about 5 years previously. One mild dose in January, and a heavier dose in early February. Second dose had slight fever days 1 and 2, followed by the dry cough which turned into a wet cough and plagued me for nearly 3 weeks. Also had 4-5 days of loss of smell and taste - and have never lost both together with a winter bug. I work on a university campus in London and needless to say all of this coincided with the return of UK, European and international students (a lot of Chinese) from Christmas/New Year break. Too much of a coincidence??

I also had a strange virus in late January which lead to conjunctivitis, something I’ve never had in my life. I wasn’t particularly ill but I was certainly feeling something with my breathing and then when I started having eye infections I was starting to think my immune system wasn’t quite doing what it should be.

My daughter, who’s 17, also had a horrific cough and flu like symptoms at around the same time. Maybe all of this was a coincidence, but it sure would be nice to find out if that was indeed linked to Covid-19.

[glassgirlw]

I have to say, the UK and US governments have made an absolute pigs ear of this. From Trumps downplaying to Boris and his “herd immunity” nonsense, the dithering has seen this virus absolutely cripple our entire infrastructure and it has undoubtedly cost lives.

Now we appear to be in a position that they’ve finally woken up to the fact that testing for this virus is the most important part of combatting it but what a cost this has come at.

Test, isolate and trace contacts. The Germans and South Koreans have been doing it since day dot and look how much better they are for it. When all is said and done with this virus, I really hope both nations make sure they’ve learned a valuable lesson.

completely agree here. We should have been testing all along. Matter of fact the state I’m in (and many others from other states) can’t get tested unless desperately ill because they say we don’t have the kits available. What kind of medical system is this?!? It’s unreal.

[dorabella]

I've been avoiding watching the constant news feed of 'experts' trotting out the same old mantra, but did see an interview with a scientist working in the Oxford university research group this morning who was very matter of fact and practical. He stated that the current rise in the figures - particularly the mortality rates - is only reflecting the state of affairs back in mid-February, before the lockdown and distancing measures had even been introduced. Takes about 4 weeks for the worst of the infection to emerge, hence we are now seeing the alarming rush to the peak of the crisis. We've now been in lockdown for nearly 3 weeks so if this is the case, the next two weeks to the end of Easter should hopefully start to show some easing of the statistics.

Of course, if the government and medical advisors were to get their asses in gear and get on with antibody testing and everything else that would certainly help to put things more in perspective.