PDA

View Full Version : Covid-19 discussion thread



Pages : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 [21] 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

Catkins
13-07-21, 12:00
It's recommended but won't be a legal requirement.

pulisa
13-07-21, 13:48
[QUOTE=Catkins;2012373]It's recommended but won't be a legal requirement.[/QUOTE

Recipe for a dodgy "grey" area. In my opinion we still need clear and consistent instructions. It's not all over.

pulisa
13-07-21, 14:16
Scotland have got the right approach.

NoraB
13-07-21, 14:27
I'll be wearing my mask and social distancing after the 19th. It's common sense, and also, I feel like a ninja. :ninja:

Carys
13-07-21, 14:58
I will also be wearing my mask and social distancing. :)


Scotland have got the right approach.

Totally, I feel, as many others do I'm sure - mystified by the removal of masks from the requirements.

AntsyVee
13-07-21, 15:52
Yes, even though we re-opened a month ago, I still wear my mask when I'm indoors with any people I don't know...like if I go to the grocery store or work.

Lencoboy
13-07-21, 17:07
I'll be wearing my mask and social distancing after the 19th. It's common sense, and also, I feel like a ninja. :ninja:

Ditto for me, at least in shops and on public transport.

BTW, 50 deaths today vs just 6 yesterday, but it is Tuesday after all!

My area down to 533 today vs 586 yesterday in the 7-day reported dashboard cases. Last week it was in the 600 range.

Catkins
13-07-21, 17:21
Yes I think I will be continuing with my mask un supermarkets etc. I think I'll still have to wear it at work, although as I'm on holiday this week I won't find out until I get back on Monday.

Catkins
13-07-21, 17:25
We're at 244 per 100000 at the mo, although I expect that to rise once the schools break up.

Lencoboy
13-07-21, 18:38
We're at 244 per 100000 at the mo, although I expect that to rise once the schools break up.

Or much rather as a likely result of the final easements of restrictions from next Monday onwards.

On the contrary, the schools breaking up for 6 weeks next week might even help to (partially) cancel out some of the expected increases in daily Covid cases over the next few weeks.

Catkins
13-07-21, 18:47
That would be good. It's just that it's a very touristy area here and with limited foreign holidays a lot of people will head up here.

MyNameIsTerry
14-07-21, 01:58
Scotland have got the right approach.

Unfortunately only until 9th Aug which I still think is too soon. Months or at least until after Delta would be safest to me. But yes, any delay is a good thing.

MyNameIsTerry
14-07-21, 02:01
We're at 244 per 100000 at the mo, although I expect that to rise once the schools break up.

272 in my ward but the city is at 426.

pulisa
14-07-21, 08:06
Unfortunately only until 9th Aug which I still think is too soon. Months or at least until after Delta would be safest to me. But yes, any delay is a good thing.

I expect NS will assess how things go in England and then make her decision for 9th August based on our data.

MyNameIsTerry
14-07-21, 09:17
I expect NS will assess how things go in England and then make her decision for 9th August based on our data.

Yep.

She might get lucky with the 9th since Scotland is passing it's peak. The same is happening in the worst hit areas of England when it started. It's running out if steam..

AntsyVee
14-07-21, 17:26
Mississippi is the new hot spot here. No one is surprised though...they are in the bottom 5 states for vaccinations. They usually run in the bottom 5 for everything anyway...health care, education, quality of life... It's just sad.

Pamplemousse
14-07-21, 18:03
Yep.

She might get lucky with the 9th since Scotland is passing it's peak. The same is happening in the worst hit areas of England when it started. It's running out if steam..

But not everywhere, Terry:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57836137

The NE of England is now taking over from the NW as a "hotspot" and the number of purple areas on the map at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases is growing quickly.

Also, first day with over 40,000 cases in a while.

Pamplemousse
14-07-21, 18:04
Mississippi is the new hot spot here. No one is surprised though...they are in the bottom 5 states for vaccinations. They usually run in the bottom 5 for everything anyway...health care, education, quality of life... It's just sad.

NY Times seems to be reporting an increase in NY, especially Staten Island.

I've been having a horrendous day today with anxiety, I think I'll just go to bed.

Catkins
15-07-21, 02:11
I know I shouldn't be on my phone on the night but I sometimes read on it. Anyway I've just been pinged and I have to self isolate for 6 days. Bugger!

MyNameIsTerry
15-07-21, 06:26
But not everywhere, Terry:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57836137

The NE of England is now taking over from the NW as a "hotspot" and the number of purple areas on the map at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/cases is growing quickly.

Also, first day with over 40,000 cases in a while.

Yes, it's the NE heading for it's peak. We are much the same around here (thankfully much lower than the NE though) but some close areas to me are seeing it start to slow down.

If the staff in that hospital have looked at Bolton they would see it is much worse. It's similiar here. They must be bracing themselves given how high their infection rates are.

Scotland was very high last week but many areas have passed their peak now. So are showing sharp decreases. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Dundee, Fife and more.

The same can be said for some of the earlier hit areas of England. Bolton and Blackburn with Darwin were noted but are now dropping. Manchester is dropping. But some are experiencing later, lesser, peaks to so that could still happen to those I'm mentioning for all I know.

I'm wondering how it will hit low 2nd jab rate places now it's hitting London? Hammersmith, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster, Tower Hamlets, etc. Their peaks aren't steep yet but you would expect it giving 2nd jab rates are near 30% lower than the national average. Scotland has high jab rates in the areas that still got hammered.

Combined with the American sounding 'Freedom Day' * and the football it could be about to go badly.

* I suppose a more British sounding 'VP' day is considered too old fashioned. Mogg would like it. We could go variant specific with 'VD' day but it may be confused with the old joke about the sailors coming home...:whistles:

MyNameIsTerry
15-07-21, 06:33
I understand that masks won't be required on public transport.

I think this is a huge mistake, but I can see why: who would enforce it and risk confrontation?

Can hardly blame people not earning very much wanting to avoid abuse. Same with retail staff. Managers get paid for the hassle. I wouldn't want to be a bus driver confronting some of the morons they get.

They don't seem to bother in the supermarkets around here anymore so next week will be a free for all.

pulisa
15-07-21, 08:06
I know I shouldn't be on my phone on the night but I sometimes read on it. Anyway I've just been pinged and I have to self isolate for 6 days. Bugger!

I'm sorry, Catkins. I suppose the contact happened over the weekend on your travels? Cases are really rising in the south and the football is having its repercussions inevitably.

Has your husband got pinged too?

Catkins
15-07-21, 09:05
No - I've just remembered he hasn't got the app!!

I think it probably was on the train. I have my suspicions it was drunk Scottish woman. He was actually further away from her - not sure what distances the bluetooth works on to be honest. The train was the only time we were anywhere for a prolonged period of time.

pulisa
15-07-21, 13:37
I wondered about her too...What a pain (both her and the effects of her)

Catkins
15-07-21, 14:14
I wondered about her too...What a pain (both her and the effects of her)

Alcohol and covid don't go well together and I think this weekend will probably show this.

I've still not heard back from Occupational Health .... I guess they must be really busy.

Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 15:38
I've just heard from my usual workplace that Covid restrictions are to remain until *at least* the 1st of September.

Seems sensible to me.

MyNameIsTerry
15-07-21, 15:57
I've just heard from my usual workplace that Covid restrictions are to remain until *at least* the 1st of September.

Seems sensible to me.

Good on them. And something to give you confidence too.

I hope all business sit back and wait. We don't need a confusing change right now. But businesses do need to get their policies out to the public because I can see a maskless rush coming next week simply because the law may be at odds with store policy.

MyNameIsTerry
15-07-21, 16:00
No - I've just remembered he hasn't got the app!!

I think it probably was on the train. I have my suspicions it was drunk Scottish woman. He was actually further away from her - not sure what distances the bluetooth works on to be honest. The train was the only time we were anywhere for a prolonged period of time.

Yeah, that makes sense. She didn't sound the sharpest tool in the box.

Hoping for a false alarm for you though.

I'm surprised the NHS aren't faster in contacting you as aren't you frontline? Is it because you're on holiday (If I'm remembering correctly)?

Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 16:22
Good on them. And something to give you confidence too.

I hope all business sit back and wait. We don't need a confusing change right now. But businesses do need to get their policies out to the public because I can see a maskless rush coming next week simply because the law may be at odds with store policy.

The workplace is being very sensible IMO; but there's a lot of people who are 'exempt', if you get my drift.

Looking at today's numbers, I can see - as I predicted to some derision a couple of weeks ago - that we are now heading towards 100 deaths a day, with cases just shy of 50,000. What it'll be like in a couple of weeks I dread to think and August is traditionally my "busy month", as I cover for those with families in the support team who want to take a holiday.

My head's already in a bad place, I don't need this but I need the money more....:shrug:

Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 16:27
I know I shouldn't be on my phone on the night but I sometimes read on it. Anyway I've just been pinged and I have to self isolate for 6 days. Bugger!

You, and it would seem, at least 520,193 others...

From the BBC live feed at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57846210


Some 520,194 alerts were sent to users of the NHS Covid-19 app in England in the week to July 7 with another 9,932 sent in Wales

Lencoboy
15-07-21, 17:32
The workplace is being very sensible IMO; but there's a lot of people who are 'exempt', if you get my drift.

Looking at today's numbers, I can see - as I predicted to some derision a couple of weeks ago - that we are now heading towards 100 deaths a day, with cases just shy of 50,000. What it'll be like in a couple of weeks I dread to think and August is traditionally my "busy month", as I cover for those with families in the support team who want to take a holiday.

My head's already in a bad place, I don't need this but I need the money more....:shrug:

Today's numbers would most certainly had got us fully locked down only just a few months back.

But Scotland now more or less appears to be past their spike.

pulisa
15-07-21, 18:01
We now have the Wembley variant at large whereas Scotland should be grateful for getting knocked out of the Euros when they did.

Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 18:03
Today's numbers would most certainly had got us fully locked down only just a few months back.

But Scotland now more or less appears to be past their spike.

Which is good... but the whole of Scotland has about half the population of Greater London!

AntsyVee
15-07-21, 18:09
Which is good... but the whole of Scotland has about half the population of Greater London!

Is that due to the weather or because Phil is up there? :roflmao:j/k Phil

Catkins
15-07-21, 18:30
You, and it would seem, at least 520,193 others...

From the BBC live feed at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57846210

I eventually managed to get through to Occupational Health after many many phone calls. Apparently I don't have to isolate. Because I didn't know the person who tested positive and it will have been based on a bluetooth connection with that person's phone for a 15 minute duration. They said the alert is advisory. I think it's because I work in healthcare.

It makes me question the usefulness of the app to be honest.

So now it's starting to cool a little I can take the dog out.

Gary A
15-07-21, 19:21
Is that due to the weather or because Phil is up there? :roflmao:j/k Phil

Yeah, it’s always really dreary and cold, puts you in a really bad mood and I’m forever hoping it’ll brighten up a bit.

The weathers not great either.

Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 20:09
I eventually managed to get through to Occupational Health after many many phone calls. Apparently I don't have to isolate. Because I didn't know the person who tested positive and it will have been based on a bluetooth connection with that person's phone for a 15 minute duration. They said the alert is advisory. I think it's because I work in healthcare.

It makes me question the usefulness of the app to be honest.


My thought was that for someone to receive notification, the app has to have been in close proximity to another app user *who has subsequently reported a positive test result*. Else it is indeed meaningless.

Phill2
15-07-21, 21:08
We had the same app here but the govt decided it was useless against Delta.
It has now mystreiously disappeared from our phones in favour of QR code sign in.

QUOTE=Pamplemousse;2012824]My thought was that for someone to receive notification, the app has to have been in close proximity to another app user *who has subsequently reported a positive test result*. Else it is indeed meaningless.[/QUOTE]

Catkins
15-07-21, 21:28
My thought was that for someone to receive notification, the app has to have been in close proximity to another app user *who has subsequently reported a positive test result*. Else it is indeed meaningless.

Exactly. I know they are going through the process of changing some of the notifications come the 19th - we got an email at work about it. But I thought that was from the 19th, not now. There were certain ones that we had to ignore (can't remember what they were). But to me perhaps they should have just told healthcare workers not to use the app. We have to switch it off when we're at work, so I would say is there any point in us having it at all? I guess they're concerned about staff shortages (which we've got without Covid) and because we still have to wear PPE (gloves/visors/aprons - don't have to wear goggles/visors unless covid is suspected) maybe they've adapted the rules.

I will have to do a lateral flow daily until the 10 days is up, but still. It's all very confusing.

MyNameIsTerry
16-07-21, 00:58
I eventually managed to get through to Occupational Health after many many phone calls. Apparently I don't have to isolate. Because I didn't know the person who tested positive and it will have been based on a bluetooth connection with that person's phone for a 15 minute duration. They said the alert is advisory. I think it's because I work in healthcare.

It makes me question the usefulness of the app to be honest.

So now it's starting to cool a little I can take the dog out.

So 15 mins near to ranting Scottish lady might be the case? A gift from the English she most likely is grumbling about.

Glad you got it sorted.

Catkins
16-07-21, 06:48
So 15 mins near to ranting Scottish lady might be the case? A gift from the English she most likely is grumbling about.

Glad you got it sorted.

👍

Catkins
16-07-21, 13:52
Second day lateral flow is negative.

Lencoboy
16-07-21, 15:50
Second day lateral flow is negative.

Good for you Catkins. I bet you were crapping yourself when you first found out you had been pinged!

Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 15:56
Second day lateral flow is negative.

Good to hear. :)

At work the social club is now being shut for a week after someone tested positive - so I'd better get some stuff to make sandwiches with for lunch.

Once again I feel like I'm sinking under water with this and other anxieties, slowly but surely. I've taken to listening to the calming sounds I've found on, of all places, CBeebies! The rain is definitely my favourite.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/cbeebies/curations/radio-calming

Catkins
16-07-21, 16:15
Good for you Catkins. I bet you were crapping yourself when you first found out you had been pinged!

I was! The thought of having Covid on top of everything else I've been feeling was horrendous. Plus being forced to stay in the house is a difficult one for me.

Lencoboy
16-07-21, 16:38
TRIGGER WARNING!!!







Not only have daily Covid cases breached the 50k mark but there are also reports of the first Norovirus outbreaks across England since very early 2020. Little wonder I've had diarrhoea today and feeling nauseous on and off the past couple of days, though haven't puked so far (touch wood). And I had already been feeling iffy before the BBC revealed the NV outbreak, so not psychosomatic symptoms. Plus Catkins mentioned similar symptoms during her trip to London last weekend.

So now we've got the double whammy of Covid and Norvid to contend with!

On a brighter note, deaths have dropped back down to 49 again today, cases in Scotland have decreased very slightly, and my area (Tamworth) is 474 today on the dashboard site, vs 493 yesterday (Thursday), 507 on Wednesday, 533 on Tuesday, and in excess of 600 last week.

Meanwhile, our neighbouring borough of North Warks is now catching up with us (451 today) and East Staffs is at 417 today, vs 402 yesterday.

AntsyVee
16-07-21, 16:52
Yeah, it’s always really dreary and cold, puts you in a really bad mood and I’m forever hoping it’ll brighten up a bit.

The weathers not great either.

LOL When I visit next, I'm gonna paint smiley faces on the trash cans ;) Don't worry, I got this, Gary!

Catkins
16-07-21, 19:21
Lencoboy - I think that more than likely I was ill at the weekend because of all the shit I'd eaten plus stress, then IBS kicked in and then because I was away from home anxiety overtook me and I ended up in a right old state (hindsight is a wonderful thing).

pulisa
16-07-21, 20:31
Yes I've had norovirus and its very grim and lasts for days...plus you have a fever and the shakes along with sickness and diarrhoea.

Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 21:01
Yes I've had norovirus and its very grim and lasts for days...plus you have a fever and the shakes along with sickness and diarrhoea.

Is this what us 50-somethings used to call "diarrhoea and sickness" when we were kids?

I had it a good few years ago and the mess was biblical in proportions; in an ideal world I'd have sat sideways on the bog to... contain both ends, but no. I ended up lying on the bathroom floor, shivering like a chihuahua in a pool of puke and shite, wondering if it would ever stop.

Since then I have always kept Dioralyte in stock.

I also understand it has an "R" number that makes Covid look a complete amateur, which is why the minute someone gets it in a hospital they're isolated and wards are closed.

pulisa
16-07-21, 21:09
I'd say its more ferocious than bog standard (ha!) D&V, PM.

AntsyVee
16-07-21, 21:10
I had it a good few years ago and the mess was biblical in proportions; in an ideal world I'd have sat sideways on the bog to... contain both ends, but no. I ended up lying on the bathroom floor, shivering like a chihuahua in a pool of puke and shite, wondering if it would ever stop.


Here we call that the "double dragon" LOL

Lencoboy
16-07-21, 22:04
Is this what us 50-somethings used to call "diarrhoea and sickness" when we were kids?

I had it a good few years ago and the mess was biblical in proportions; in an ideal world I'd have sat sideways on the bog to... contain both ends, but no. I ended up lying on the bathroom floor, shivering like a chihuahua in a pool of puke and shite, wondering if it would ever stop.

Since then I have always kept Dioralyte in stock.

I also understand it has an "R" number that makes Covid look a complete amateur, which is why the minute someone gets it in a hospital they're isolated and wards are closed.

I wonder if future Norvid pandemics will be treated like Covid and lead to national lockdowns, social distancing, etc, and weekly R-rates published every Friday?

I also wonder if the UK govt would introduce a dedicated dashboard site for Norvid?

Norvid is the latest nickname for Norovirus that I have coined today.

History in the making!!

dorabella
16-07-21, 22:44
I wonder if future Norvid pandemics will be treated like Covid and lead to national lockdowns, social distancing, etc, and weekly R-rates published every Friday?

I also wonder if the UK govt would introduce a dedicated dashboard site for Norvid?

Norvid is the latest nickname for Norovirus that I have coined today.

History in the making!!

For goodness sake don't put ideas in the government's head on that score Lenco - we'll end up in permanent lockdown for the common cold next. This is all getting out of hand.

NoraB
17-07-21, 08:05
So after my lad having to self-isolate all week (because he had contact with the kid next door who tested positive) one of the other mums texted me yesterday saying that school have closed our year due to a positive case. My lad was doing his happy dance until we rang up because we'd had no e-mail and they told us that he (and one other lad) can go in because they were off this week and someone else will teach them.

So now he's sulking...

Not sure how well being taught by a strange teacher (the week after he had a meltdown waiting for the result of his PCR test) will go down... (autism school)

Catkins
17-07-21, 08:23
Oh bloody hell that's crap NoraB.

pulisa
17-07-21, 08:45
It'll be a countdown next week to the school holidays I would have thought..? Hopefully more "fun" lessons than academia especially as the rest of the year group are off?

NoraB
17-07-21, 08:46
It'll be a countdown next week to the school holidays I would have thought..? Hopefully more "fun" lessons than academia especially as the rest of the year group are off?

Our kids are in school when most have broken up. But we get two weeks in the October/Nov half term...

Catkins
17-07-21, 09:25
Third day with a negative lateral flow test.

NoraB
17-07-21, 09:56
Third day with a negative lateral flow test.

We went to get PCR tests done last Saturday night. I was retching all over the place trying to poke the back of my throat. The nice young man had to provide me with a sick bag - just in case. :yesyes:

Worst part, by far, was that the mirror they provided (to aid throat-pokery) was magnified a trillion times and I got the shock of my life! :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:

No woman over the age of 50 should be subjected to mirror magnification. :lac:

I saw enough nasal hair to make a decent merkin! :wtf1:

Catkins
17-07-21, 10:31
🤣🤣

I've had to do so many swabs over the last 16 months, I'm an old hand at it. It is a very unpleasant experience!!

NoraB
17-07-21, 10:40
藍藍

I've had to do so many swabs over the last 16 months, I'm an old hand at it. It is a very unpleasant experience!!

My autistic son totally outplayed me. It took me 15 minutes for me to do the throat poke. It took him about 10 seconds. Hubs too.

I felt quite the prat. :whistles:

Pamplemousse
17-07-21, 10:53
I've not had to do any... yet. I can see my workplace insisting on them soon though, if things carry on the way they are.

Catkins
17-07-21, 11:12
I've not had to do any... yet. I can see my workplace insisting on them soon though, if things carry on the way they are.

The nose one feels like you're having pepper stuffed up your nose. The throat one is is a a similar feeling to sticking a finger down your throat.

It's one of those things that aren't nice but not horrendous.

NoraB - again you made me smile!!

Lencoboy
17-07-21, 11:19
For goodness sake don't put ideas in the government's head on that score Lenco - we'll end up in permanent lockdown for the common cold next. This is all getting out of hand.

I was only kidding Dorabella!

pulisa
17-07-21, 13:51
I was only kidding Dorabella!

I think Dorabella was too, Lenco!:)

Lencoboy
17-07-21, 18:47
Third day with a negative lateral flow test.

I bet you're relieved Catkins, as it's usually at least 2 days after exposure that people start testing positive.

Fingers crossed you'll be OK.

dorabella
17-07-21, 19:01
I think Dorabella was too, Lenco!:)

I was joking Lenco - but many a word spoken in jest....

MyNameIsTerry
18-07-21, 06:49
We went to get PCR tests done last Saturday night. I was retching all over the place trying to poke the back of my throat. The nice young man had to provide me with a sick bag - just in case. :yesyes:

Worst part, by far, was that the mirror they provided (to aid throat-pokery) was magnified a trillion times and I got the shock of my life! :ohmy: :ohmy: :ohmy:

No woman over the age of 50 should be subjected to mirror magnification. :lac:

I saw enough nasal hair to make a decent merkin! :wtf1:

I'm still laughing about Catkin's friend narrowly escaping a smear test on the car park :roflmao: I bet that cheered up the other nurses with a good giggle.

Thank god they haven't made a self test smear kit yet. Or treated it like Covid whereby you pull up to the drive through and present the goods through the car window * :roflmao:

* don't get the test site mixed up with local dogging meet either :ohmy::blush:

Catkins
18-07-21, 07:53
I bet you're relieved Catkins, as it's usually at least 2 days after exposure that people start testing positive.

Fingers crossed you'll be OK.

I am relieved. I'm double vaxed and know all the logic but I really would rather not get it.

Catkins
18-07-21, 07:57
* don't get the test site mixed up with local dogging meet either :ohmy::blush:

My first Covid test was at a drive through. When they came to check through the window that I'd done it right it got rejected due to a massive bogie being in the end of the swab. I was very embarrassed.

It's always worth giving your nose a good blow before taking the swab.

pulisa
18-07-21, 08:06
My first Covid test was at a drive through. When they came to check through the window that I'd done it right it got rejected due to a massive bogie being in the end of the swab. I was very embarrassed.

It's always worth giving your nose a good blow before taking the swab.

Now that's a very useful tip and maybe one to appear on the Gov.UK official guidelines re successful testing!:D How snot to get a test rejected?

pulisa
18-07-21, 08:08
I am relieved. I'm double vaxed and know all the logic but I really would rather not get it.

It must be a huge relief. Would have been a horrible legacy from your weekend away.

Catkins
18-07-21, 09:01
Now that's a very useful tip and maybe one to appear on the Gov.UK official guidelines re successful testing!:D How snot to get a test rejected?

🤣🤣

Lencoboy
19-07-21, 16:19
Something rather odd and unexpected about today's dashboard stats.

Today's dashboard cases are 39k, yesterday's were 48k and Saturday's were 54k.

Apart from reported vaccinations in NI over the latest 24 hour period being lower for some reason or other, there's been no reports of any hitches concerning the counting of cases on the dashboard site during the same period.

The largest drops in cases within the latest 24 hour period have been in England and Scotland, the latter below 2k cases for the first time in a few weeks.

A 'pleasant' puzzle!!

spectrum123
19-07-21, 17:10
Something rather odd and unexpected about today's dashboard stats.

Today's dashboard cases are 39k, yesterday's were 48k and Saturday's were 54k.

Apart from reported vaccinations in NI over the latest 24 hour period being lower for some reason or other, there's been no reports of any hitches concerning the counting of cases on the dashboard site during the same period.

The largest drops in cases within the latest 24 hour period have been in England and Scotland, the latter below 2k cases for the first time in a few weeks.

A 'pleasant' puzzle!!

Half the staff at the testing centre either got pinged or pissed off down the beach and chucked a sickie?

MyNameIsTerry
19-07-21, 17:27
Something rather odd and unexpected about today's dashboard stats.

Today's dashboard cases are 39k, yesterday's were 48k and Saturday's were 54k.

Apart from reported vaccinations in NI over the latest 24 hour period being lower for some reason or other, there's been no reports of any hitches concerning the counting of cases on the dashboard site during the same period.

The largest drops in cases within the latest 24 hour period have been in England and Scotland, the latter below 2k cases for the first time in a few weeks.

A 'pleasant' puzzle!!

Some areas of the North East were showing a slow down which is promising.

MyNameIsTerry
19-07-21, 17:35
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/19/covid-certificates-to-be-compulsory-for-crowded-venues-in-england?utm_source=upday&utm_medium=referral

Passport time for crowded venues.

Also reported was 35% of under 30s completely unvaccinated. Hardly surprising seeing how first jabs have been declining after the initial rush in this group.

Catkins
19-07-21, 18:17
Day 5 lateral flow test negative. One more to go!!

Pamplemousse
19-07-21, 18:18
Add in also that over a third of Londoners are unvaccinated, making it the area with the lowest take-up in England.

MyNameIsTerry
19-07-21, 18:29
Add in also that over a third of Londoners are unvaccinated, making it the area with the lowest take-up in England.

Yes, rates are so low down there. But currently they aren't getting as hammered by Delta as I would have expected. Do you think this is because more of them are protected by previous infection or that Delta is still getting started there considering how it showed similiar (slow start then a sudden spike) patterns as it spread from area to area?

With such low rates of vaccination I was expecting London to get hit like the North East and more since their rates are far higher.

Lencoboy
19-07-21, 19:01
Add in also that over a third of Londoners are unvaccinated, making it the area with the lowest take-up in England.

According to the ZOE site (forgiven again from my bad books for now), the Gtr London region has the darkest red on the map and highest in the cases ranking right now. By stark contrast, the other day it was NI, and now they're the lightest red on the map, and bottom of their cases ranking.

We (the Midlands) are about halfway down the list in the ZOE cases regional ranking today.

ZOE's cases have actually increased over the past 2-3 days but still behind the dashboard cases (33k vs 39k).

Most ironic and indeed baffling.

Perhaps one of the main factors behind the dashboard cases declining a bit over the past 2 days could be the glorious weather we've been having since about Wednesday, as A; most people will be more inclined to spend most of their time outdoors where Covid is generally less likely to spread, and B; it's been much-speculated that the UV rays from the sun and high outdoor temperatures in general can help to reduce infections.

I could be talking a load of baloney of course, and tomorrow's cases could (dare I say it) be way back up again!

Still, there was no explanation for today's sudden drop in cases on the dashboard site, so it could very well be a case of 'no news is good news'!

Lencoboy
19-07-21, 19:01
Day 5 lateral flow test negative. One more to go!!

That's good news Catkins.

pulisa
19-07-21, 19:41
Wonder how the drunken Scottish woman is? Were you at work today, Catkins?

Scass
19-07-21, 20:10
The pattern I’ve seen is that it starts in the south or north and then travels up or down the country. So cases were higher in the north for delta but then travelled down to London over a few weeks. The cases in my Greater London borough have now rocketed.
It’s bloody depressing.
However I don’t know anyone amongst my family, friends and colleagues who hasn’t had at least one vaccination. Oh actually, I know one.

I was at the shops today and almost everyone was wearing a mask. At school collection though there were only about 1/4 of parents wearing masks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Catkins
19-07-21, 20:25
Wonder how the drunken Scottish woman is? Were you at work today, Catkins?

Hopefully she's regretting getting so drunk on the train.

Yes, back to work. In the heat in PPE. Wasn't pleasant. Plus after last weeks setback was very anxious about being there. But it was OK - not great but OK.. No changes with 'Freedom' day which was a relief though.

pulisa
19-07-21, 20:35
I imagine you were relieved to get some structure back to your day?

pulisa
19-07-21, 20:36
The pattern I’ve seen is that it starts in the south or north and then travels up or down the country. So cases were higher in the north for delta but then travelled down to London over a few weeks. The cases in my Greater London borough have now rocketed.
It’s bloody depressing.
However I don’t know anyone amongst my family, friends and colleagues who hasn’t had at least one vaccination. Oh actually, I know one.

I was at the shops today and almost everyone was wearing a mask. At school collection though there were only about 1/4 of parents wearing masks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Our area is purple too, Scass. Hopefully the schools breaking up will improve things?

Catkins
20-07-21, 06:17
I imagine you were relieved to get some structure back to your day?

I was. I was completely knackered by home time though.

MyNameIsTerry
20-07-21, 07:01
Wonder how the drunken Scottish woman is? Were you at work today, Catkins?

I wonder if she a MP returning home? :biggrin:

'I hope the English lose' = SNP?

MyNameIsTerry
20-07-21, 07:10
According to the ZOE site (forgiven again from my bad books for now), the Gtr London region has the darkest red on the map and highest in the cases ranking right now. By stark contrast, the other day it was NI, and now they're the lightest red on the map, and bottom of their cases ranking.

We (the Midlands) are about halfway down the list in the ZOE cases regional ranking today.

ZOE's cases have actually increased over the past 2-3 days but still behind the dashboard cases (33k vs 39k).

Most ironic and indeed baffling.

Perhaps one of the main factors behind the dashboard cases declining a bit over the past 2 days could be the glorious weather we've been having since about Wednesday, as A; most people will be more inclined to spend most of their time outdoors where Covid is generally less likely to spread, and B; it's been much-speculated that the UV rays from the sun and high outdoor temperatures in general can help to reduce infections.

I could be talking a load of baloney of course, and tomorrow's cases could (dare I say it) be way back up again!

Still, there was no explanation for today's sudden drop in cases on the dashboard site, so it could very well be a case of 'no news is good news'!

BIB - straying into President Orange territory there, Lenco :biggrin:

I guess we have to wait and see if we get an announcement it got messed up? But looking at the test numbers there has been no obvious reduction. I half expected to see a big drop to create some good news to coincide with Freedom Day :winks:

Maybe Spector was right? It's hammering some areas but others are slowing down, hitting a plateau or greatly in decline. I've noticed two of the badly hit NE areas slowing down. But there some (like Bolton) that are now increasing again despite passing their peak. That's a concern and I suspect close proximity to increasing areas may be a culprit which is what has happened to Staffs Moorlands (They got over their peak when we were low but then we got hit and up went Moorlands with us).

My city is starting to slow down the last few days so I'm hoping we are near our peak. My brothers region (In Yorkshire) is now spiking as they started getting hit about a week after us.

31 in hospital and 8 on ventilation at our hospital.

MyNameIsTerry
20-07-21, 07:16
The pattern I’ve seen is that it starts in the south or north and then travels up or down the country. So cases were higher in the north for delta but then travelled down to London over a few weeks. The cases in my Greater London borough have now rocketed.
It’s bloody depressing.
However I don’t know anyone amongst my family, friends and colleagues who hasn’t had at least one vaccination. Oh actually, I know one.

I was at the shops today and almost everyone was wearing a mask. At school collection though there were only about 1/4 of parents wearing masks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks, Scass. I think I spoke too soon on London. They just seemed to be taking a while to really spike.

It is depressing. We were almost there and along comes Delta. A couple of weeks seems to be enough for it to peak if other areas are anything to go by.

The low jabs down there must be a big worry for you guys? We are 72 1st and 62 2nd, so we are lagging the national average, and I think we are disappointing. My brother's is more 82 and 72. There are places in Scotland around 94 for 1st!

So whilst the overall jab rates look good we have to remember it's an average and some areas are far from sorted no matter what the politicians say.

Catkins
20-07-21, 08:12
We've got 14 in hospital in the north of the county. Still not too bad. I heard on the radio yesterday that hospital stays are a lot shorter than they were, averaging about 5 days apparently

Lencoboy
20-07-21, 16:24
I was correct that cases would probably go back up again today (46k vs 39k yesterday), but still below 50k, whereas on Saturday (17th July) cases reached 54k.

In fact, I half expected today's cases to be above Saturday's 54k, but luckily not to be.

Yesterday's drop to 39k is still rather baffling. I wonder if it's the footie effects starting to wear off coupled with the hot sunny weather over the past few days that caused the drop?

However, I completely expect cases to skyrocket again from later this week onwards.

My area is starting to go up again after dropping last week (566 cases today vs 533 last Tuesday), but that won't as yet be caused by yesterday's easements.

pulisa
20-07-21, 17:44
Probably just the usual "weekend" effect, Lenco?

Seeing as restrictions are now lifted why do we need a daily tally of case numbers? Seeing as we are told we have to live with covid like we do with flu? Do we report daily flu cases?

dorabella
20-07-21, 20:00
Probably just the usual "weekend" effect, Lenco?

Seeing as restrictions are now lifted why do we need a daily tally of case numbers? Seeing as we are told we have to live with covid like we do with flu? Do we report daily flu cases?

Daily reporting of cases (or more properly positive results/infections) serves no purpose unless there is some specific meta-analysis of the nature of them - i.e. asymptomatic/symptomatic, by age group, with or without underlying disorders etc etc .... how are we supposed to interpret them? By reporting them in this way - and for some of the public anxiously scanning them - it just perpetuates the fear factor and prolongs the pandemic which by all accounts is now endemic.

We just have to decide for ourselves and get on with living with it in the same way as we do with every other of the hundreds of viruses floating about out there. Government got us into this perpetual lockdown and now, as many commentators opined quite early on, they don't know how to get out of it. I trust the general populace will eventually develop some sense of perspective on all this.

pulisa
20-07-21, 20:25
Dastardly Dom is plunging the knife even further into Boris....A body language "expert" would have a field day with him. Where is Big Brother's Dame Judy when you need her?:winks:

Lencoboy
20-07-21, 20:36
Probably just the usual "weekend" effect, Lenco?

Seeing as restrictions are now lifted why do we need a daily tally of case numbers? Seeing as we are told we have to live with covid like we do with flu? Do we report daily flu cases?

Cases usually do tend to go up on Mondays though, that is, when the general trend is upwards like now. Perhaps this Monday just gone might sadly be just a one-off blip.

As for your suggestion about whether or not publication of daily Covid case numbers is warranted any longer, I'm currently 'on the fence'.

TBH, the govt are basically damned if they do and damned if they don't right now, and will no doubt continue to get it in the neck whatever the event.

AntsyVee
20-07-21, 21:47
I think the daily reporting of cases is important, at least for transparency. With so many people that don't trust their governments, the flow of information can only help to increase accountability. What a person chooses to do with that information is ultimately up to them. But I would think that if numbers rise dramatically or a new variant pops up, then you all would face restrictions again. At least that's what's happened here in California...and we've always been a few months ahead of you all in this pandemic. We had our re-opening or "freedom day" on June 15th. But because the delta variant keeps spreading among the unvaccinated, LA county is already mandating that everyone wear masks again, regardless of vaccine status.

Most Californian adults are vaccinated...71%. Now many of these people are asking the state to somehow come up with penalties for those who are unvaccinated with no excuse (like health problems or chemotherapy) to try to encourage the rest of people to get vaccinated.

Pamplemousse
20-07-21, 22:15
Dastardly Dom is plunging the knife even further into Boris....A body language "expert" would have a field day with him. Where is Big Brother's Dame Judy when you need her?:winks:

Thing is, Cummings has ZERO credibility. It all sounds like the pathetic mewling of someone who thinks he's far smarter than he actually is, a bitter and twisted little man who discovered the hard way that he was disposable. His failure to provide any evidence to back up his many claims serves to illustrate this.

fishman65
20-07-21, 22:50
If I'm completely honest, after my second vaccination and the expected four weeks for it to bed in, I went into smug mode. I thought 'well this is all over now, I'm safe so that's OK'. So the anxiety switched back to traditional pursuits including social, generalised etc.

But as 'The Grand Opening' approached and cases started shooting up, I'm back to analysing stats, watching Dr Campbell and wondering whether I might be in that small percentage of the double vaccinated that has a bad outcome. Not just me of course but Mrs F with her catalogue of comorbidities and my Dad with his very advanced age/comorbidities. Though I'm hardly alone in this. Most of us have vulnerable people in our families and/or are vulnerable ourselves.

So is it just me, or does this feel like the most dangerous phase of this pandemic so far? The vaccination has proven efficacy after all. I don't know whether to stick or twist.

.Poppy.
20-07-21, 23:28
My county has been pegged by the CDC as an emerging hotspot. We are not a large county by any means - I live in the largest "city" and the population is still just 50,000. But only 40% are vaccinated and students are coming back soon. We are expected to start transitioning back into the office August 1st and were granted some leeway with expectations that we'll be there most/all of the time by the end of August. But, IMO, pretty much everyone who is going to get vaccinated already has, and restrictions are just opening up - it just seems like it's the perfect chance for more variants and greater spread.

My town only does weekly numbers reports now, so I'm waiting to see what they report tomorrow. Last week there were 120 new cases, which is more for us than even at the "peak" last year.

MyNameIsTerry
21-07-21, 00:12
Thing is, Cummings has ZERO credibility. It all sounds like the pathetic mewling of someone who thinks he's far smarter than he actually is, a bitter and twisted little man who discovered the hard way that he was disposable. His failure to provide any evidence to back up his many claims serves to illustrate this.

Absolutely this. He sounds like someone who's been dumped. He thought he was Teflon and now his pride is wounded.

MyNameIsTerry
21-07-21, 00:22
If I'm completely honest, after my second vaccination and the expected four weeks for it to bed in, I went into smug mode. I thought 'well this is all over now, I'm safe so that's OK'. So the anxiety switched back to traditional pursuits including social, generalised etc.

But as 'The Grand Opening' approached and cases started shooting up, I'm back to analysing stats, watching Dr Campbell and wondering whether I might be in that small percentage of the double vaccinated that has a bad outcome. Not just me of course but Mrs F with her catalogue of comorbidities and my Dad with his very advanced age/comorbidities. Though I'm hardly alone in this. Most of us have vulnerable people in our families and/or are vulnerable ourselves.

So is it just me, or does this feel like the most dangerous phase of this pandemic so far? The vaccination has proven efficacy after all. I don't know whether to stick or twist.

No, I think you are one of the many thinking the same. As Delta ramped up around here we discussed keeping shopping trips to the minimums we did early last year and later when we were put in tier 3 and then again early this year.

Being complacent could mean you are the unlucky one. I think when you have vulnerable people in your life this is normal. I think we take the flu jab for granted but we always know we can still get it. But that is different when your vulnerable loved ones get a cold. But pre flu jab it was a bigger killer and more feared. Maybe the difference is more that this still new to US all and in our faces daily? Even during the bad flu years we didn't have a daily forcefeeding of news about it.

It's Delta that is doing this because we are seeing huge numbers again and the media are happy as Larry churning out the doom. Pre Delta the odds were much more against coming into contact with infected people.

MyNameIsTerry
21-07-21, 05:59
I was correct that cases would probably go back up again today (46k vs 39k yesterday), but still below 50k, whereas on Saturday (17th July) cases reached 54k.

In fact, I half expected today's cases to be above Saturday's 54k, but luckily not to be.

Yesterday's drop to 39k is still rather baffling. I wonder if it's the footie effects starting to wear off coupled with the hot sunny weather over the past few days that caused the drop?

However, I completely expect cases to skyrocket again from later this week onwards.

My area is starting to go up again after dropping last week (566 cases today vs 533 last Tuesday), but that won't as yet be caused by yesterday's easements.

But has Tamworth really increased?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Tamworth#card-cases_by_specimen_date

Look how your last 5 days have gone. Click the data tab in the first graph.

I think yours appears artificially high due to reporting day cut offs in the schedule (both the BBC site and the gov ward tools have this) and you've had the odd spike day which inflates your average. You were up & down but then had the spike day over a hundred. But the last days show a big difference that you would expect indicates passing the peak.

Looking at those figures you are on a downward trend. It will probably show in the next reporting week

For me we have a constant upward trend. Now look at the daily cases and you will see a big reduction.

Phill2
21-07-21, 07:02
Arrests were made during anti-vaccine protests in central London on Monday, July 19, after all lockdown measures across England were removed.
Britain has recorded its highest Covid death toll since March 24.

Ninety-six people died in Britain from Covid-19 in the 24 hours leading to July 20.
That takes the country’s death toll to a shocking 128,823.
It marks a 60 per cent surge in the number of deaths since last week, The Sun reports.
Daily cases increased again on July 20 with 46,558 testing positive for the virus

Lencoboy
21-07-21, 07:40
Arrests were made during anti-vaccine protests in central London on Monday, July 19, after all lockdown measures across England were removed.
Britain has recorded its highest Covid death toll since March 24.

Ninety-six people died in Britain from Covid-19 in the 24 hours leading to July 20.
That takes the country’s death toll to a shocking 128,823.
It marks a 60 per cent surge in the number of deaths since last week, The Sun reports.
Daily cases increased again on July 20 with 46,558 testing positive for the virus


96 deaths does seem high, but remember yesterday was Tuesday and generally plays catch-up following the usual weekend lag where the deaths are almost always underrecorded, so was actually artificial. But yes, the deaths sadly are trending upwards, but thankfully so far not in excess of 1k per day like back in Jan and early Feb.

And it was covered by The Scum after all!!

Lencoboy
21-07-21, 08:06
But has Tamworth really increased?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Tamworth#card-cases_by_specimen_date

Look how your last 5 days have gone. Click the data tab in the first graph.

I think yours appears artificially high due to reporting day cut offs in the schedule (both the BBC site and the gov ward tools have this) and you've had the odd spike day which inflates your average. You were up & down but then had the spike day over a hundred. But the last days show a big difference that you would expect indicates passing the peak.

Looking at those figures you are on a downward trend. It will probably show in the next reporting week

For me we have a constant upward trend. Now look at the daily cases and you will see a big reduction.

Thanks for the link Terry.

I guess the media haven't really helped with much of their typical sensationalist reporting plus on another online forum a couple of weeks ago at the height of our local spike, someone posted venomous remarks (now deleted) which read something like 'well it is a chav town after all'!

Another (presumably local person) on the same forum replied in defence stating that my borough's reputation as a 'chav town' has generally lessened over recent years and was largely a 'moral panic', partly fuelled by the local press back in around 2003-05, but nevertheless, still sad that this pandemic is reopening old wounds from the past, and provoking the typical 'town-bashing' which sadly many people still seem to revel in nationwide!

But our local rag, the Tamworth Herald, is a completely different kettle of fish these days to what it was back in the early-mid 2000s, as it's now part of the Reach Group, whereas back then it was part of the Northcliffe Group, who allegedly owned the likes of the Daily Fail (surprise, surprise!!), so kind of demonstrates why they have toned things down so significantly over the past 15 years, probably coupled with people's general changes in behaviours during the same period.

Sorry for digressing and straying off in a tangent!

Phill2
21-07-21, 08:17
I don't know how the count works down here Lenco but that was in todays (Wednesday) paper

pulisa
21-07-21, 08:24
If I'm completely honest, after my second vaccination and the expected four weeks for it to bed in, I went into smug mode. I thought 'well this is all over now, I'm safe so that's OK'. So the anxiety switched back to traditional pursuits including social, generalised etc.

But as 'The Grand Opening' approached and cases started shooting up, I'm back to analysing stats, watching Dr Campbell and wondering whether I might be in that small percentage of the double vaccinated that has a bad outcome. Not just me of course but Mrs F with her catalogue of comorbidities and my Dad with his very advanced age/comorbidities. Though I'm hardly alone in this. Most of us have vulnerable people in our families and/or are vulnerable ourselves.

So is it just me, or does this feel like the most dangerous phase of this pandemic so far? The vaccination has proven efficacy after all. I don't know whether to stick or twist.


I feel the same, Fishman. My daughter's anxiety is really bad too. I'm finding it very hard to cope to be honest..I even took her pregabalin by mistake this morning!!! I don't know why!!

fishman65
21-07-21, 14:14
I feel the same, Fishman. My daughter's anxiety is really bad too. I'm finding it very hard to cope to be honest..I even took her pregabalin by mistake this morning!!! I don't know why!!Pulisa :hugs: I think we're in a position where we're relying on the common sense of others which has been the case all along but to a greater extent now. Due of course to the lifting of all legal constraints and the subsequent behaviour of the more selfish among us.

I have to take my Dad for a GP appt tomorrow due to anaemia. I phoned him earlier and made a point of us wearing our masks. Mrs F hasn't been able to sleep lately and I was assuming it was heat combined with pain but she's been worrying about the new covid status too. Did the pregabalin reduce your anxiety?

pulisa
21-07-21, 14:40
Pulisa :hugs: I think we're in a position where we're relying on the common sense of others which has been the case all along but to a greater extent now. Due of course to the lifting of all legal constraints and the subsequent behaviour of the more selfish among us.

I have to take my Dad for a GP appt tomorrow due to anaemia. I phoned him earlier and made a point of us wearing our masks. Mrs F hasn't been able to sleep lately and I was assuming it was heat combined with pain but she's been worrying about the new covid status too. Did the pregabalin reduce your anxiety?


I realised the moment I had swallowed it but couldn't bring myself to put my fingers down my throat..I panicked but decided just to carry on regardless. I feel pretty woozy and spacey so am relieved that I don't have to drive today. I'll go back to my escitalopram tomorrow! I prefer feeling alert!

I hope your Dad's GP appointment is useful and worth the hassle of a surgery visit. Is he still on iron tablets?

pulisa
21-07-21, 14:44
One of Keir Starmer's children has just tested positive for covid so he's going to have to self-isolate...

He just happened to be At PMQs today...

MyNameIsTerry
21-07-21, 15:00
One of Keir Starmer's children has just tested positive for covid so he's going to have to self-isolate...

He just happened to be At PMQs today...

I've heard he's so unpopular even the virus has given him a swerve.

I hope his child is ok.

Lencoboy
21-07-21, 16:39
Meanwhile, today's cases have dropped to 44k (46k yesterday), which I'm still (pleasantly) miffed about.

I know it's still only 2 days into the final easements of restrictions but I was half expecting daily cases to be above 60k once again today, especially as we keep being warned that cases might soon hit 100-200k cases per day.

Pamplemousse
21-07-21, 17:02
One of Keir Starmer's children has just tested positive for covid so he's going to have to self-isolate...

He just happened to be At PMQs today...

I understand SKS took a LFT test before he went to the Commons this morning (result was negative) and his son's news came at lunchtime.

Chatting to a colleague at work yesterday, he was telling me one booking he has expects a daily LFT to be taken.

Pamplemousse
21-07-21, 17:08
Meanwhile, today's cases have dropped to 44k (46k yesterday), which I'm still (pleasantly) miffed about.

I know it's still only 2 days into the final easements of restrictions but I was half expecting daily cases to be above 60k once again today, especially as we keep being warned that cases might soon hit 100-200k cases per day.

Yet look at the UK map on the Government website - turning ever more purple, with spots of a darker purple, just like when Alpha/Kent swept the country. My tiny little area has 25 cases now but allegedly, still no deaths for several weeks.

As you have said yourself, it's too early to see if 19/7 has had an effect. Wait three weeks, then another three weeks to look at deaths.

Lencoboy
21-07-21, 17:09
My day centre is now doing lateral flow tests on us clients every day from this week, of which I'm fully in favour of.
Bravo to the management!

I am now becoming quite well-practised at doing them myself anyway.

Lencoboy
21-07-21, 17:13
Yet look at the UK map on the Government website - turning ever more purple, with spots of a darker purple, just like when Alpha/Kent swept the country. My tiny little area has 25 cases now but allegedly, still no deaths for several weeks.

That's the whole irony of the current situation, slightly lower daily case numbers since Sunday, despite more purple patches appearing across the country.

Pamplemousse
21-07-21, 17:14
My day centre is now doing lateral flow tests on us clients every day from this week, of which I'm fully in favour of.
Bravo to the management!

I am now becoming quite well-practised at doing them myself anyway.

Good for them, and good on you too!

Elsewhere I read of places removing all screens, sanitiser, notices, the lot - these are the places (wherever they are) that will lead the Fourth Wave into Autumn.

NoraB
22-07-21, 07:42
Elsewhere I read of places removing all screens, sanitiser, notices, the lot .

That's insanity!

I would refuse to shop in those places. :lac:

pulisa
22-07-21, 13:46
I've met Eric Clapton when I was an inpatient many years ago and he was a returning ex-patient. An "interesting" character..

NoraB
22-07-21, 15:37
I've met Eric Clapton when I was an inpatient many years ago and he was a returning ex-patient. An "interesting" character..

Was it actually Eric Clapton, P? Or just a deluded peep who thought he was? :unsure:

My ma swore blind she spoke to Debbie Harry on the blower once. :shrug: She was certain it was Debs herself but I reckon it was Mum's highly eccentric (and slightly insane) lady friend playing a prank on her.. :whistles:

Me and the Hubster got pissed with Dave Berry's backing band in a hotel in Blackpool once. That's my claim to fame. :roflmao:

Hubs still has Dave's number I think? :huh: Not sure how he came to have it but we were ver ver pissed....

Lencoboy
22-07-21, 16:29
Wow, back down to 39k cases today.

But still baffling and most ironic (so far) considering we keep being promised that cases will top 100k over the coming weeks.

And I know it's still only 3 days since the final easements.

MyNameIsTerry
22-07-21, 17:01
Wow, back down to 39k cases today.

But still baffling and most ironic (so far) considering we keep being promised that cases will top 100k over the coming weeks.

And I know it's still only 3 days since the final easements.

It's about timing. Scotland is dropping at rates similiar to it's increases. Some of the NE is at plateaus. The badly hit Blackburn With Darwen has fallen loads but Bolton is going back to square one.

Big decreases fighting some big increases causing levelling out or dropping. But now as the SE starts ramping up it will likely cancel out the decreases and increase overall.

Perhaps this is another welcome effect of vaccination? It has slowed down the ability to spread thus causing a delayed effect as it spreads outwards.

Lencoboy
22-07-21, 17:11
It's about timing. Scotland is dropping at rates similiar to it's increases. Some of the NE is at plateaus. The badly hit Blackburn With Darwen has fallen loads but Bolton is going back to square one.

Big decreases fighting some big increases causing levelling out or dropping. But now as the SE starts ramping up it will likely cancel out the decreases and increase overall.

Perhaps this is another welcome effect of vaccination? It has slowed down the ability to spread thus causing a delayed effect as it spreads outwards.

You could be correct Terry.

Strangely (and most ironically), Scotland is the only UK nation to show a slight uptick in cases today (though still below 2k).

As well as the likely effects of the jabs, I reckon that people obviously spending more time outdoors due to the heatwave over the past week or so has probably helped slow the overall spread of infections.

But like you said, only time will tell as to how things pan out over the coming days/weeks.

Also, I read in the Metro paper on the train this morning on the way to Burton that 9 in 10 UK adults now have antibodies, though the cut-off date for said data was at the very end of June.

Lencoboy
22-07-21, 17:25
It's about timing. Scotland is dropping at rates similiar to it's increases. Some of the NE is at plateaus. The badly hit Blackburn With Darwen has fallen loads but Bolton is going back to square one.

Big decreases fighting some big increases causing levelling out or dropping. But now as the SE starts ramping up it will likely cancel out the decreases and increase overall.

Perhaps this is another welcome effect of vaccination? It has slowed down the ability to spread thus causing a delayed effect as it spreads outwards.

My borough is now being outdone by Stafford, Staffs Moorlands, Lichfield, East Staffs and North Warks, whilst Cannock Chase District still remains lower but increasing.

Gtr London is now seeing a big spike, as expected.

MyNameIsTerry
22-07-21, 17:26
You could be correct Terry.

Strangely (and most ironically), Scotland is the only UK nation to show a slight uptick in cases today (though still below 2k).

As well as the likely effects of the jabs, I reckon that people obviously spending more time outdoors due to the heatwave over the past week or so has probably helped slow the overall spread of infections.

But like you said, only time will tell as to how things pan out over the coming days/weeks.

Also, I read in the Metro paper on the train this morning on the way to Burton that 9 in 10 UK adults now have antibodies, though the cut-off date for said data was at the very end of June.

You should see Tamworth drop now. Whilst the rate per 100k is stubbornly rising the actual cases are dropping but because it's based on a snapshot of reporting weeks there is a delay to show the downward trend other than on the charts or in the daily data.

It's slowing down for us too. The new reporting week is now snowing the reduction despite our rate per 100k still rising.

One thing though. In the data tab on the ward level page just watch out with the last reporting day. There is a delay and new cases are being added in the next day. That's just a brief observation, you may notice even later cases being added. Right now Tamworth barely has any but tomorrow it might increase as your previous day has increased by about 30 cases today.

Good news in Burton. A relief for you there. It will be even higher now.

pulisa
22-07-21, 17:46
Glad to see that the Government ads are now saying that vaccination doesn't prevent infection or transmission of Covid.
I think that the complacency factor has played a big part in the spread of the delta infections.

Lencoboy
22-07-21, 18:14
Glad to see that the Government ads are now saying that vaccination doesn't prevent infection or transmission of Covid.
I think that the complacency factor has played a big part in the spread of the delta infections.

I don't think vaccines from the off were ever likely to completely wipe out Covid.

After all, the BBC website did keep reiterating about a year or so ago that vaccines are 'no magic bullet' against Covid, but do so far appear to be lessening infections to say the very least.

AntsyVee
22-07-21, 19:20
Our state is talking about going back to the color coding rating for each of our counties as Covid rates still rise here among unvaccinated :/

Lencoboy
22-07-21, 23:41
I'm still feeling a bit confused by the ZOE site, especially as they have chopped and changed the way they compile their numbers for the umpteenth time today with their daily cases currently over 60k, unlike the dashboard site which says 39k today.

However, the ZOE site has always been approximately 4-5 days behind at the latest, so would today probably be representing cases for Saturday-Sunday last weekend.

Meanwhile, going by the 'Cases by specimen date' measure on the dashboard site, cases actually exceeded 60k last Thursday (15th July), but the 'Cases by date reported' measure on that same day was lower (in the 40k range IIRC), before topping 50k on Friday and Saturday, then (apart from Tuesday), suddenly dropped mysteriously!

Lencoboy
23-07-21, 16:16
Dashboard cases down again today.

36k today vs 39k yesterday (Thursday 22nd July) vs 51k last Friday (16th July).

ONS weekly cases still up on last week, but they're always a week behind anyway.

pulisa
23-07-21, 17:45
16 cases of the Colombian variant to be added to the mix..No big deal apparently. The 19th July variant will be more significant, I feel.

Gary A
23-07-21, 20:30
My 7 year old daughter has had a positive result after being tested yesterday. She has absolutely no symptoms and was only tested due to one of friends testing positive and her being deemed a close contact. My partner has had two vaccines, also had Covid shortly after her first dose, my oldest daughter has had one vaccine, I’ve had two vaccines plus Covid. My daughter contracted Covid at least 8 days ago, yet the other 3 of us living with her who have had a mixture of vaccination and infection have all consistently tested negative.

Make of that what you will. For me that’s quite solid evidence that immunity is a real thing.

Scass
23-07-21, 20:41
Glad she’s ok Gary. Very interesting about the family & contact.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

pulisa
23-07-21, 20:58
Thanks for that info Gary and I'm glad your little girl feels well too.

Maybe the combination of covid plus 2 jabs makes a significant difference re resistance to reinfection? Your elder daughter's immune system must be pretty good. Is it possible that she's also had covid but it went undetected?

Gary A
23-07-21, 21:49
Thanks for that info Gary and I'm glad your little girl feels well too.

Maybe the combination of covid plus 2 jabs makes a significant difference re resistance to reinfection? Your elder daughter's immune system must be pretty good. Is it possible that she's also had covid but it went undetected?

Oh absolutely, especially given that both me and her mother have been confirmed positive in the past. It’s been a worrying few days really. I like to think I’m quite level headed when it comes to Covid but that really goes out the window when it’s your child. She’s really fine though, like not one hint of any symptom.

Now I’m just trying to take the positives. Ironically I’m taking the positives from how negative the rest of the family have proven to be.

NoraB
24-07-21, 08:13
My 7 year old daughter has had a positive result after being tested yesterday. She has absolutely no symptoms and was only tested due to one of friends testing positive and her being deemed a close contact. My partner has had two vaccines, also had Covid shortly after her first dose, my oldest daughter has had one vaccine, I’ve had two vaccines plus Covid. My daughter contracted Covid at least 8 days ago, yet the other 3 of us living with her who have had a mixture of vaccination and infection have all consistently tested negative.

Make of that what you will. For me that’s quite solid evidence that immunity is a real thing.

Good to hear your daughter is well Gary. The lad next door to us (and reason my son had to isolate) had no symptoms either..

Pamplemousse
24-07-21, 12:04
Looks like the Strines are now demonstrating against lockdowns...

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20210724-anti-lockdown-protests-grip-australia-clashes-erupt-in-sydney

Pamplemousse
24-07-21, 12:08
Meanwhile (after a text message spat), only now has my sister told me she tested positive for Covid after Christmas and the fact that both her father-in-law and I were unaffected 'proves this Covid business is crap'. :mad:

Lencoboy
24-07-21, 15:58
Oh absolutely, especially given that both me and her mother have been confirmed positive in the past. It’s been a worrying few days really. I like to think I’m quite level headed when it comes to Covid but that really goes out the window when it’s your child. She’s really fine though, like not one hint of any symptom.

Now I’m just trying to take the positives. Ironically I’m taking the positives from how negative the rest of the family have proven to be.

Well at least the schools have now broken up for the annual 6-week summer holidays, so one less potential super-spreading source for a while.

Lencoboy
24-07-21, 16:00
16 cases of the Colombian variant to be added to the mix..No big deal apparently. The 19th July variant will be more significant, I feel.

Well not a dickie bird (as yet) about it on the BBC website, but you said it's apparently no big deal.

MyNameIsTerry
24-07-21, 17:05
Originally Posted by pulisa

16 cases of the Colombian variant to be added to the mix..No big deal apparently.



What is the street value? :biggrin:

AntsyVee
24-07-21, 17:44
Awww, I didn't know you were a daddy, Gary!

Lencoboy
24-07-21, 17:44
What is the street value? :biggrin:

Oh very droll, Tel! Very droll! (lol)!

pulisa
24-07-21, 17:49
What is the street value? :biggrin:

Beans apparently....

Fishmanpa
24-07-21, 19:44
There's been a lot of news here in the US concerning the Delta variant and now, the Gamma variant. Cases are rising and those that are getting sick, being hospitalized and dying are practically all unvaxxed. Roughly 50% of the US population is vaxxed and its the other 50% that are getting sick are keeping the virus alive and well. Sadly, one can see the political divide when looking at the states where cases are rising and the vaccine rates. Fortunately, my wife and I are vaxxed but we're still taking precautions, masking in stores and practicing proper hygiene. It remains to be seen how things will be moving forward. In the mean time, use common sense (rare thing these days) get vaxxed, practice social distancing and use proper hygiene.

FMP

Pamplemousse
24-07-21, 20:19
I understand from today's New York Times that the C.D.C. is looking at the efficacy of Pfizer and Moderna over a period and debating whether or not vulnerable groups should be given a booster jab.

If anything, I shall be even more cautious now.

fishman65
24-07-21, 20:31
I understand from today's New York Times that the C.D.C. is looking at the efficacy of Pfizer and Moderna over a period and debating whether or not vulnerable groups should be given a booster jab.

If anything, I shall be even more cautious now.Relevant to this PM, I think booster jabs are going to be vital. Two broadcasts from Dr C, the first alarmed me last night and deals with waning transmission protection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAqVAiPXbJc

However this from today where the interval between the first and second jab of the Pfizer seems to make a difference. The interval for myself was barely 5 weeks. Though there are question marks as to whether this dropping off in infection protection is purely down to the interval. However its clear there is no waning in protection from severe illness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNbs4LCgrcY

Lencoboy
24-07-21, 20:56
31k cases today (according to Sky News) vs 36k cases yesterday.

Pamplemousse
24-07-21, 23:00
Relevant to this PM, I think booster jabs are going to be vital. Two broadcasts from Dr C, the first alarmed me last night and deals with waning transmission protection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAqVAiPXbJc

However this from today where the interval between the first and second jab of the Pfizer seems to make a difference. The interval for myself was barely 5 weeks. Though there are question marks as to whether this dropping off in infection protection is purely down to the interval. However its clear there is no waning in protection from severe illness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNbs4LCgrcY

This is pretty much what the C.D.C. are saying - that whilst infection protection wanes, the protection from serious illness doesn't. Which is a relief.

Pamplemousse
24-07-21, 23:01
Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/marclister3k/status/1418907451190038533

MyNameIsTerry
25-07-21, 07:32
31k cases today (according to Sky News) vs 36k cases yesterday.

The BBC page is messed up. Whilst it says 31k in the text all the tools, graphs, etc are stuck on the previous day. Someone probably wanted to knock off early :biggrin:

MyNameIsTerry
25-07-21, 07:35
Beans apparently....

One of my five a day :yesyes:

MyNameIsTerry
25-07-21, 07:45
Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/marclister3k/status/1418907451190038533

Hopkins must be coining it after getting booted out of Australia fully paid by Endemol. Strange really that they didn't think about the backlash which has cost them before they signed her. But with them it might have just been an advertising trick knowing she would raise their profile so the contract was really just an advertising fee.

Gary A
25-07-21, 08:54
Awww, I didn't know you were a daddy, Gary!

Hard to believe I know, but yes, I’m actually responsible for other human beings.

Lencoboy
25-07-21, 18:03
Daily Covid cases in the UK have dropped by almost a quarter over the past week.

Today (Sunday 25th July):
29k.

Last Saturday (17th July):
54k.

Obviously the real 'proof of the pudding' with regards last Monday's final easements will be over the next week or two, but still nevertheless, baffling but promising so far!

Also, Dr JC's latest video explains that the incubation period for Delta is 3-4 days on average vs 6-7 for the original Covid variant, which in turn makes the sudden drops in cases over the past week all the more ironic.

Pamplemousse
25-07-21, 18:07
Obviously the real 'proof of the pudding' with regards last Monday's final easements will be over the next week or two, but still nevertheless, baffling but promising so far!

It seems to be following the pattern established in India but whether or not India's figures are due to massive under-reporting, who can say?

I will definitely not be counting any chickens any time soon: my area's now turned purple with a case rate of 520.5 per 100k. Where I work is 652 per 100k :scared15:

MyNameIsTerry
25-07-21, 18:12
Daily Covid cases in the UK have dropped by almost a quarter over the past week.

Today (Sunday 25th July):
29k.

Last Saturday (17th July):
54k.

Obviously the real 'proof of the pudding' with regards last Monday's final easements will be over the next week or two, but still nevertheless, baffling but promising so far!

Also, Dr JC's latest video explains that the incubation period for Delta is 3-4 days on average vs 6-7 for the original Covid variant, which in turn makes the sudden drops in cases over the past week all the more ironic.

Spector is now saying the opposite. They likely expect the later spread to the south pushing it back up.

AntsyVee
25-07-21, 18:14
Hard to believe I know, but yes, I’m actually responsible for other human beings.

LMAO, I understand...so am I. People bring me their kids and drop them off at this big building where I work ;)

pulisa
25-07-21, 20:03
It seems to be following the pattern established in India but whether or not India's figures are due to massive under-reporting, who can say?

I will definitely not be counting any chickens any time soon: my area's now turned purple with a case rate of 520.5 per 100k. Where I work is 652 per 100k :scared15:

Good to know that the Indian cricket team are shortly to arrive in the UK for a series of Test Matches throughout the country then..

Lencoboy
25-07-21, 20:56
Spector is now saying the opposite. They likely expect the later spread to the south pushing it back up.

I'm finding ZOE rather confusing right now, especially with their constant chopping and changing.

Having said that, the dashboard site are hardly strangers to chopping and changing every so often, as they recently changed the way the vaccination rates are recorded, which meant some of the jab figures were omitted under the new system.

Pamplemousse
26-07-21, 09:05
I've just been speaking to a colleague at work who got Covid despite being vaccinated - he said he felt terrible for three days but has now recovered. I am now left wondering just how dangerous 'Delta' is, and even if you've been vaccinated but have co-morbidities, whether or not you'll still end up with a one-way trip to ICU...

Pamplemousse
26-07-21, 12:08
Could be an interesting development in vaccination against Covid:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57553602

Gary A
26-07-21, 12:11
I've just been speaking to a colleague at work who got Covid despite being vaccinated - he said he felt terrible for three days but has now recovered. I am now left wondering just how dangerous 'Delta' is, and even if you've been vaccinated but have co-morbidities, whether or not you'll still end up with a one-way trip to ICU...

It’s still entirely possible for anyone, even fully vaccinated, to contract Covid and end up in hospital. Vaccination greatly reduces the risk, but it doesn’t render it non-existent. Frankly, your risk of being hospitalised by influenza, despite vaccination, is quite a bit higher than your risk of hospitalisation if you get Covid.

Influenza isn’t as transmissible, of course, but any available Covid vaccine has far higher efficacy than any known flu vaccine. There’s always a risk, it’s just a lot lower now than it ever has been, and will most likely only get lower as far more of the population acquire immunity via vaccination or infection.

Pamplemousse
26-07-21, 12:48
I hope you and others are right Gary 'cos I'm as shit-scared now as I was back in December.

Gary A
26-07-21, 13:10
I hope you and others are right Gary 'cos I'm as shit-scared now as I was back in December.

I think you’re going to see a lot of apprehension going forward, I’d wager you’re far from alone in that regard. This virus has been a huge part of our lives for pretty much a year and a half so it’s only natural to feel nervous at the prospect of facing it head on, especially as we’ve all seen the devastation that high infection levels can cause.

It is, however, a scientific fact that this virus poses nowhere near the risk that it once did. Vaccination does reduce transmission, it does vastly reduce the risk of serious illness if you so happen to contract it. My youngest daughter has Covid right now and has most likely had it for around ten days. 3 others in the same house in constant contact are consistently testing negative every day. That simply would not be the case if we hadn’t been vaccinated. 6 months ago it’s likely everyone in the house would contract it.

The risk is there, PM, it’s just about trying to get a sensible perception of what the risk is. You may be feeling the same nervousness as in December, but the fact is that the risk from now to then has fallen by upwards of 85%. It can, and most likely will, fall further as infection levels are brought under control by population immunity.

Pamplemousse
26-07-21, 15:09
Thing is Gary, since December we've had four mutations so what may have been applicable in December may be utterly irrelevant now - that is what bothers me. The apparent fact that Delta puts young, unvaccinated people into ICU (which Covid 1.0 seldom did) to this simple soul at least suggests it's a lot more dangerous.

I spoke to a colleague today who's isolating after his wife showed symptoms (and subsequently tested positive) at the weekend, but those symptoms were the newer "like a bad cold" ones.

.Poppy.
26-07-21, 16:09
My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

Lencoboy
26-07-21, 16:16
My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

Unfortunately that's something we're all concerned about, but try only to worry about it if it actually happens (heaven forbid), but so far so good.

Lencoboy
26-07-21, 16:40
Wow, cases in the UK still continuing to decline today, and for 6 days on the trot as well!

24k today vs 29k yesterday.

Approximately 45k at the beginning of last week.

What's making this all the more remarkable right now is that it's without the aid of a (fourth) lockdown!

Still the real proof of the pudding will be in about a week or two's time re last Monday's final easements, and of course things can still change in due course, but nevertheless, still encouraging signs one week on.

Gary A
26-07-21, 17:19
Thing is Gary, since December we've had four mutations so what may have been applicable in December may be utterly irrelevant now - that is what bothers me. The apparent fact that Delta puts young, unvaccinated people into ICU (which Covid 1.0 seldom did) to this simple soul at least suggests it's a lot more dangerous.

I spoke to a colleague today who's isolating after his wife showed symptoms (and subsequently tested positive) at the weekend, but those symptoms were the newer "like a bad cold" ones.

The idea that the Delta variant is putting more younger people in hospital is a bit of a warped perception. The fact is that it’s simply more likely for a younger person to be hospitalised now but only in comparison to older people.

Younger people, right now, are going into an almost open society with a fair amount of them either only partially or completely unvaccinated. Whereas before the virus was affecting older folk in ratios far greater than younger, that’s no longer the case due to vaccination. Younger people aren’t all of a sudden more susceptible, the event of anyone below 40 being hospitalised is still incredibly rare, it’s just not being clouded by swathes of over 50’s taking the brunt, so it’s now far more noticeable.

It’s also worth noting that the idea of younger people being put in hospital may be getting a bit more airtime right now in order to encourage better vaccine uptake in that group. It’s surely no coincidence that as vaccine uptake slows, the media start publishing stories of severe illness in younger people.

spectrum123
26-07-21, 17:40
The idea that the Delta variant is putting more younger people in hospital is a bit of a warped perception. The fact is that it’s simply more likely for a younger person to be hospitalised now but only in comparison to older people.

Younger people, right now, are going into an almost open society with a fair amount of them either only partially or completely unvaccinated. Whereas before the virus was affecting older folk in ratios far greater than younger, that’s no longer the case due to vaccination. Younger people aren’t all of a sudden more susceptible, the event of anyone below 40 being hospitalised is still incredibly rare, it’s just not being clouded by swathes of over 50’s taking the brunt, so it’s now far more noticeable.

It’s also worth noting that the idea of younger people being put in hospital may be getting a bit more airtime right now in order to encourage better vaccine uptake in that group. It’s surely no coincidence that as vaccine uptake slows, the media start publishing stories of severe illness in younger people.


I agree with this view. In the midst of the pandemic while the deaths were piling up, there were still young people in hospital and as now generally surviving, but the big news was the death toll.

What we do know now, although the young were surviving, some are being left with permanent damage from the virus.

fishman65
26-07-21, 18:15
The obvious thing to do is just get vaccinated. My 22 year old daughter has had one jab so far, she asked me why she can't just let her immune system protect her. I explained that its far far better to have a vaccination trigger her immunity into action than the virus, its a no brainer.

AntsyVee
26-07-21, 18:31
My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

Yes, this is my big fear also. :scared15:

fishman65
26-07-21, 19:05
My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?But isn't there likely to be a trade-off with mutations? Increased transmissibility but decreased lethality or vice versa?

AntsyVee
26-07-21, 19:27
True, FM. More mutations usually decreases the severity/lethality.

Gary A
26-07-21, 19:31
But isn't there likely to be a trade-off with mutations? Increased transmissibility but decreased lethality or vice versa?

Well, a virus that is good at transmitting is seldom lethal. Think common colds. We’ve all had one, sometimes a few times a year, yet it’s nothing more than an annoyance.

Covid is very good at transmitting but it’s actually not very lethal. It looks lethal due to the numbers that succumb to it, but when you consider the sheer volume of infections the actual death rate is highly likely to be below 1%.

The SARS virus that spread in 2002 was far more “lethal” than the current virus, but it was contained rather easily due to how obvious symptoms became before a person can transmit. The same is true for MERS, another coronavirus.

Being more lethal is actually bad for the virus. It’s evolution, at the end of the day. Dogs evolved from wolves because they became less lethal and more suited to the dominant species, humans. The exact same thing is true for viruses.

pulisa
26-07-21, 19:58
I suppose it is the potential legacy from Covid which marks it out from other virulent viruses? Organ damage in young people, the enigma of Long Covid and whether it can be classed as a functional disorder or a neurological issue?

.Poppy.
26-07-21, 20:23
I suppose it is the potential legacy from Covid which marks it out from other virulent viruses? Organ damage in young people, the enigma of Long Covid and whether it can be classed as a functional disorder or a neurological issue?

This does concern me - I have heard that Covid is more vascular than respiratory. I know that there are a lot of "long haulers" and I know people who have had even mild cases that have had long lasting symptoms.

I do certainly hope everything can be contained and that it will get less lethal over time, but only time will tell.

fishman65
26-07-21, 20:25
That last point of yours is insightful Gary. I'd never looked at domestic dogs evolving to be less dangerous. Of course, we know the ancestor of all domestic dogs is the grey wolf, so clearly they have become more compliant. But how much of that is down to selective breeding on our part? Us picking the more obedient puppies and so on. Though the end result is the same. And a little of the wolf remains. Rolling in stuff that stinks is something that wolves do to disguise their own scent from prey and enemies. Dogs have retained that, much to the annoyance of many an owner as I can attest. Ditto howling.

I was also reading somewhere that the common colds that coexist quite happily with us all now, were probably much more harmful when our ancestors were first infected. But we've now earned the right, probably through a lot of deaths/illness, to live alongside them. Which underlines just how lucky we are to have vaccines, and how bizarre that some would still rather do it the old fashioned way.

Pamplemousse
26-07-21, 21:22
True, FM. More mutations usually decreases the severity/lethality.

Not necessarily true, Vee.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve/ (https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270)

fishman65
26-07-21, 22:56
Well that's guaranteed me a good night's sleep.

AntsyVee
26-07-21, 23:27
Not necessarily true, Vee.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270

(https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270)https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-will-the-coronavirus-evolve/



Usually**

Like Gary said, if a virus wants to keep itself alive, it's in its best interest not to kill its host.

MyNameIsTerry
27-07-21, 06:52
I agree with this view. In the midst of the pandemic while the deaths were piling up, there were still young people in hospital and as now generally surviving, but the big news was the death toll.

What we do know now, although the young were surviving, some are being left with permanent damage from the virus.

I agree also. To understand the true impact of Delta would be to remove all vaccination. The hospitals would have been in very serious trouble with this one. The focus is on who is left to feel it's impact. And without a comparison, in the young, that examines the % infected to become hospitalised all we are seeing are rising numbers and steep inclines in their group without context.

Rolling out vaccination earlier, and to greater numbers, means we have dodged a bullet. It's quite clear from watching the expanding patterns across the country that most areas aren't taking long to peak and fall. With a much larger number of people it would have accelerated faster but may not have fallen so quickly.

MyNameIsTerry
27-07-21, 07:03
That last point of yours is insightful Gary. I'd never looked at domestic dogs evolving to be less dangerous. Of course, we know the ancestor of all domestic dogs is the grey wolf, so clearly they have become more compliant. But how much of that is down to selective breeding on our part? Us picking the more obedient puppies and so on. Though the end result is the same. And a little of the wolf remains. Rolling in stuff that stinks is something that wolves do to disguise their own scent from prey and enemies. Dogs have retained that, much to the annoyance of many an owner as I can attest. Ditto howling.

I was also reading somewhere that the common colds that coexist quite happily with us all now, were probably much more harmful when our ancestors were first infected. But we've now earned the right, probably through a lot of deaths/illness, to live alongside them. Which underlines just how lucky we are to have vaccines, and how bizarre that some would still rather do it the old fashioned way.

That and how we have shaped them as work animals. But I suspect our dogs are far more cunning and at some point realised the futility of hunting in the wild vs doing a doggie cute face and just getting fed treats https://yoursmiles.org/ksmile/dogs/k4932.gif:yesyes:

MyNameIsTerry
27-07-21, 07:12
Usually**

Like Gary said, if a virus wants to keep itself alive, it's in its best interest not to kill its host.

I think we also need to remember the importance afforded to Covid. The world threw everything at it. If it mutates to make current vaccines ineffective wouldn't we throw the big money at it again?

If we do this then perhaps it will mutate to stay alive in a less lethal form? Or do we push it into a corner where it mutates into a more serious form, as mentioned in the first link PM posted that some do? The odds are on the former.

Pamplemousse
27-07-21, 10:45
I agree also. To understand the true impact of Delta would be to remove all vaccination. The hospitals would have been in very serious trouble with this one. The focus is on who is left to feel it's impact. And without a comparison, in the young, that examines the % infected to become hospitalised all we are seeing are rising numbers and steep inclines in their group without context.

This is the big issue with all this, and has often been the case - there's no control group.

Pamplemousse
27-07-21, 10:49
That and how we have shaped them as work animals. But I suspect our dogs are far more cunning and at some point realised the futility of hunting in the wild vs doing a doggie cute face and just getting fed treats https://yoursmiles.org/ksmile/dogs/k4932.gif:yesyes:

You've reminded me of my former neighbours and their endearingly cute cocker spaniel, Phoebe; she was very good at coming to the dinner table, plonking her head on the table on one side with big eyes and whimpering gently. One of neighbours' elderly relatives - upon seeing this - remarked "she's been here before", a remark implying said doggy had a soul from a previous life.

Pamplemousse
27-07-21, 20:42
So... over 130 deaths reported today.

It gives me no comfort to say this, but I predicted this would happen a couple of weeks ago and was practically accused of pulling figures out of my arse.

I await apologies from my accusers.

pulisa
27-07-21, 20:49
Who knows what's really going on though? What about the 100,000+ daily cases by mid-August?

Pamplemousse
27-07-21, 21:05
Who knows what's really going on though? What about the 100,000+ daily cases by mid-August?

Well, ZOE reckons about 62,000 per day at the moment and it's only late July: it has been posited that the .gov figures are both lagging by at least a week and will be subject to the removal of school testing figures. Cases may be falling (according to .gov) but hospitalisations and deaths are climbing. Locally the hospitalisation figure has doubled in a week but so far, no deaths.

Worth a read: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57971990

Gary A
27-07-21, 21:41
So... over 130 deaths reported today.

It gives me no comfort to say this, but I predicted this would happen a couple of weeks ago and was practically accused of pulling figures out of my arse.

I await apologies from my accusers.

Let’s not play games with words here PM. You asked me if I thought hundreds of deaths per day were acceptable, I then said that you pulled that figure out of thin air because I never said ANY FIGURE was acceptable. If you want proof of that then here you go;

https://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showthread.php?245216-19th-July-Reopening/page4

Perhaps it’s you who owes me an apology for twisting my words and making it seem like I said something that I never did?

Just another example of you seemingly getting irritated by someone genuinely trying to ease your concerns by using some context. You really need to start recognising help when you’re getting it. Even if it isn’t received it would be bloody nice for you to at least tell yourself that a person cares enough to try, rather than lashing out all the time.

elizabethalice
27-07-21, 23:04
My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

So I am not a scientist at all but I have been working with some recently (I just work on various websites behind the scenes!) And I've had the chance to ask them loads of questions!

Common consensus is that its very unlikely that a variant that evades vaccines would be more lethal. I'm not sure exactly what the science is behind that but partly to do with the fact that it's not in viruses interests to get more lethal, like mentioned here. So, if we do eventually get a vaccine resistant variant, it would likely be a lot less harmful.

Also, variants don't suddenly end up vaccine resistant. It's a gradual process. A mutation of Delta may be slightly more vaccine resistant, but only slightly. Then, scientists will tweak jabs for the dominant variant. That's why we have a different flu jab each year.

So the chances of a very dangerous completely vaccine resistant variant emerging all of a sudden are very low. Hope that helps!

Pamplemousse
28-07-21, 05:28
Let’s not play games with words here PM. You asked me if I thought hundreds of deaths per day were acceptable, I then said that you pulled that figure out of thin air because I never said ANY FIGURE was acceptable. If you want proof of that then here you go;

https://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showthread.php?245216-19th-July-Reopening/page4

Perhaps it’s you who owes me an apology for twisting my words and making it seem like I said something that I never did?

Just another example of you seemingly getting irritated by someone genuinely trying to ease your concerns by using some context. You really need to start recognising help when you’re getting it. Even if it isn’t received it would be bloody nice for you to at least tell yourself that a person cares enough to try, rather than lashing out all the time.

So let me get this right: you are in the wrong and yet you expect me to apologise to you?

I think you're starting to get a level of arrogance and self-importance that certain other posters on this forum have.

Blocked.

MyNameIsTerry
28-07-21, 06:37
But deaths were greatly reduced over the weekend so couldn't this be a reporting issue? If it drops back to normal it might just be late reporting.

Until I see trend I'll consider it a blip. One day isn't enough to tell us much.

MyNameIsTerry
28-07-21, 06:40
This is the big issue with all this, and has often been the case - there's no control group.

Agreed. But they could easily provide a % of young people infected leading to hospitalisation and compare to previous waves. I would be surprised if they haven't.

MyNameIsTerry
28-07-21, 06:42
You've reminded me of my former neighbours and their endearingly cute cocker spaniel, Phoebe; she was very good at coming to the dinner table, plonking her head on the table on one side with big eyes and whimpering gently. One of neighbours' elderly relatives - upon seeing this - remarked "she's been here before", a remark implying said doggy had a soul from a previous life.

My dog does something similiar. We get the head tilt with the eyes and often he lies down. Sounds a lot like Phoebe.

I'm sure I read something about this a while back. Something the species has evolved to influence us.

Lencoboy
28-07-21, 07:27
But deaths were greatly reduced over the weekend so couldn't this be a reporting issue? If it drops back to normal it might just be late reporting.

Until I see trend I'll consider it a blip. One day isn't enough to tell us much.

Deaths are always higher on Tuesdays due to the weekend catch-up.

But whilst even just one death is still one too many, at least it's not in excess of 1k per day like back in January-early Feb this year, which is increasingly less likely now due to the effects of the jabs.

Lencoboy
28-07-21, 07:35
Well, ZOE reckons about 62,000 per day at the moment and it's only late July: it has been posited that the .gov figures are both lagging by at least a week and will be subject to the removal of school testing figures. Cases may be falling (according to .gov) but hospitalisations and deaths are climbing. Locally the hospitalisation figure has doubled in a week but so far, no deaths.

Worth a read: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57971990

But ZOE's stats, whilst currently higher, are also lagging behind by a few days.

I personally don't know which set of stats to really trust, and I have been a bit suspicious of ZOE's stats recently anyway, especially as they're forever chopping and changing the way they compile their stats.

But having said that, the dashboard site also does the same every now and then.

Gary A
28-07-21, 07:36
So let me get this right: you are in the wrong and yet you expect me to apologise to you?

I think you're starting to get a level of arrogance and self-importance that certain other posters on this forum have.

Blocked.

Read back on the thread. Anyone who does can see that you’ve put words in my mouth.

Good riddance anyway, miserable little man.

MyNameIsTerry
28-07-21, 07:51
But ZOE's stats, whilst currently higher, are also lagging behind by a few days.

I personally don't know which set of stats to really trust, and I have been a bit suspicious of ZOE's stats recently anyway, especially as they're forever chopping and changing the way they compile their stats.

But having said that, the dashboard site also does the same every now and then.

795k with symptoms per the app. Makes you question how clean the data being entered is?

Between the BBC, .gov and ZOE (I've never looked at ZOE before) you get 3 different sets of data based on differing dates. Hardly clear for the public.

Lencoboy
28-07-21, 08:08
795k with symptoms per the app. Makes you question how clean the data being entered is?

Between the BBC, .gov and ZOE (I've never looked at ZOE before) you get 3 different sets of data based on differing dates. Hardly clear for the public.

Hence the confusion.

A similar analogy would be the crime stats which are based on 2 sets of data, that is the police-recorded stats and the Crime Survey stats, where often one has been known to have higher figures than the other, but neither are 100% accurate all of the time, but that's generally another story.

pulisa
28-07-21, 08:16
795k with symptoms per the app. Makes you question how clean the data being entered is?

Between the BBC, .gov and ZOE (I've never looked at ZOE before) you get 3 different sets of data based on differing dates. Hardly clear for the public.

Why do we need 3 different sets of data anyway? What's the point? It just leads to confusion for those who bother to study them religiously. It helps to know accurate case numbers in our own area though just to make sensible decisions.

Lencoboy
28-07-21, 08:21
Why do we need 3 different sets of data anyway? What's the point? It just leads to confusion for those who bother to study them religiously. It helps to know accurate case numbers in our own area though just to make sensible decisions.

I thought the BBC shared the dashboard data.

fishman65
28-07-21, 16:25
795k with symptoms per the app. Makes you question how clean the data being entered is?

Between the BBC, .gov and ZOE (I've never looked at ZOE before) you get 3 different sets of data based on differing dates. Hardly clear for the public.Exactly Terry, the Gov stats and Zoe are vastly different. Dr C on YouTube seems to accept the official Gov figures.

Lencoboy
28-07-21, 17:37
Dashboard cases back up a bit to 27k today (vs 23k yesterday), but still lower than last Wednesday (44k).

A bit of a disappointment, but probably best not to jump to conclusions just yet over just a single day's figures.

Equally, by the same token, it's also best not to jump to conclusions just yet about us being over the worst of the pandemic, or at least this third wave.

The ZOE case stats, however, are now starting to show signs of declining.

MyNameIsTerry
28-07-21, 18:30
I thought the BBC shared the dashboard data.

The BBC page lags behind the ward level data. Ward level showed passing the peaks days before the BBC did. Why the BBC are displaying out of date per 100k data I'm not sure.

Also I was saying look at the data behind which can be showing a downward trend despite graphs showing an upward one. That's because of reporting week cut off dates. I'm not sure if these differ between sites but cause confusion.

ZOE is down? Spector said a couple of days ago it had swung back upwards. ZOE shows 800k with symptoms today but it was 795k last night. Confused...:shrug:

MyNameIsTerry
28-07-21, 18:35
Why do we need 3 different sets of data anyway? What's the point? It just leads to confusion for those who bother to study them religiously. It helps to know accurate case numbers in our own area though just to make sensible decisions.

One is enough for me. I don't mind there being 3 if they explain the differences. The BBC is just late and not far out. ZOE seems to be based on something else and if that's untested self reported data I wouldn't see it as clean if it's based on the public spotting symptoms. It does says it's based on tests but it's numbers are nothing like test data.

ZOE is one I haven't really checked to be honest so I've not investigated how it gets it's numbers. Quick reading last night on their own site shed no light on the differences.

Considering Spector is causing confusion twice in two weeks it needs properly explaining.

I think I'm with Eddie Hitler's frustrated crossword answer on this one...

https://i.redd.it/lf7v48jlaj431.jpg

:whistles:

fishman65
28-07-21, 19:04
One is enough for me. I don't mind there being 3 if they explain the differences. The BBC is just late and not far out. ZOE seems to be based on something else and if that's untested self reported data I wouldn't see it as clean if it's based on the public spotting symptoms. It does says it's based on tests but it's numbers are nothing like test data.

ZOE is one I haven't really checked to be honest so I've not investigated how it gets it's numbers. Quick reading last night on their own site shed no light on the differences.

Considering Spector is causing confusion twice in two weeks it needs properly explaining.

I think I'm with Eddie Hitler's frustrated crossword answer on this one...

https://i.redd.it/lf7v48jlaj431.jpg

:whistles:I always remember an episode of the Young Ones where Rick says 'Borrrring!!! Might just as well be listening to Genesis'. My mate at the time was a big Genesis fan and I used to rib him over it.

Lencoboy
28-07-21, 19:40
One is enough for me. I don't mind there being 3 if they explain the differences. The BBC is just late and not far out. ZOE seems to be based on something else and if that's untested self reported data I wouldn't see it as clean if it's based on the public spotting symptoms. It does says it's based on tests but it's numbers are nothing like test data.

ZOE is one I haven't really checked to be honest so I've not investigated how it gets it's numbers. Quick reading last night on their own site shed no light on the differences.

Considering Spector is causing confusion twice in two weeks it needs properly explaining.

I think I'm with Eddie Hitler's frustrated crossword answer on this one...

https://i.redd.it/lf7v48jlaj431.jpg

:whistles:

I think the general consensus right now is (according to the 'experts') that daily cases are likely to 'bobble' up and down over the coming days/weeks, but it still all remains very much in limbo, and in the lap of the gods as to how things might or might not pan out, but hopefully things won't be anywhere near as dire as they were back in January.

Like I keep saying, only time will tell.

pulisa
28-07-21, 19:57
"They" can dress it up all they want but nobody knows basically.

Pamplemousse
28-07-21, 21:12
I think the general consensus right now is (according to the 'experts') that daily cases are likely to 'bobble' up and down over the coming days/weeks, but it still all remains very much in limbo, and in the lap of the gods as to how things might or might not pan out, but hopefully things won't be anywhere near as dire as they were back in January.

Like I keep saying, only time will tell.


I think what little faith I had in Neil Ferguson evaporated when only a week or so ago he forecast daily cases in six figures, yet today he said
‘I’m positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic’

He just seems to say whatever pleases the government at any particular moment.

MyNameIsTerry
29-07-21, 06:03
I think what little faith I had in Neil Ferguson evaporated when only a week or so ago he forecast daily cases in six figures, yet today he said
‘I’m positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic’

He just seems to say whatever pleases the government at any particular moment.

That and his escapades last year.

It's strange how they change with the wind. I'm not an expert but much of this wave has spread in a pattern I expected. I don't understand how they seem to be so far out? I appreciate they have to produce a range of models including worst case but, as you say, one minute it's up and the next down.

Recently we had Spector saying the opposite (going down when trend going up), which I thought (I believe mistakenly now) was due to regional differences in speed, but now seems he was predicting ahead. He was right but he didn't make that clear. Now he is predicting the other way so I will judge him based on what happens next. He seems to say it's based on data now but that doesn't make sense unless he sees something that either isn't published or doesn't reflect the government metrics. It sounds the latter.

MyNameIsTerry
29-07-21, 06:06
I always remember an episode of the Young Ones where Rick says 'Borrrring!!! Might just as well be listening to Genesis'. My mate at the time was a big Genesis fan and I used to rib him over it.

I never saw much of that. A bit before my time. I remember Richie (Bottom) calling hello to a passing copper from his kitchen window, his face showing the shitty response he got and replying 'no wonder they make programmes like The Bill to take the piss out of you' :roflmao:

Lencoboy
29-07-21, 09:01
That and his escapades last year.

It's strange how they change with the wind. I'm not an expert but much of this wave has spread in a pattern I expected. I don't understand how they seem to be so far out? I appreciate they have to produce a range of models including worst case but, as you say, one minute it's up and the next down.

Recently we had Spector saying the opposite (going down when trend going up), which I thought (I believe mistakenly now) was due to regional differences in speed, but now seems he was predicting ahead. He was right but he didn't make that clear. Now he is predicting the other way so I will judge him based on what happens next. He seems to say it's based on data now but that doesn't make sense unless he sees something that either isn't published or doesn't reflect the government metrics. It sounds the latter.

Yeah, both Ferguson and Spector seem to have a habit of forever chopping and changing their Covid 'forecasts'.

Whilst out walking the dog yesterday evening, I cast my mind back to the height of the first wave in March-April 2020 when the entire country was in strict lockdown for the first time (most ironically with far fewer 'known' Covid cases at the time, but of course with Covid vaccines then still some 6-8 months away), and how unreal (and indeed creepy on occasions) nearly everything was with barely a soul about, and only a handful of vehicles on the road.

Now, by stark comparison, we're probably the closest to the old 'normal' once again that we last saw during late February-early March 2020, despite overall daily cases currently being within the 20-30k range.

Lencoboy
29-07-21, 09:07
Another thing I have noticed so far since Monday (for better or worse) is the lack of posts on all the other Covid threads on here.

Nor any new Covid-related threads being created.

pulisa
29-07-21, 13:42
I would imagine that people are completely Covided-out..with virus fatigue.

Lencoboy
29-07-21, 15:19
I would imagine that people are completely Covided-out..with virus fatigue.

You could be right there Pulisa.

Mind you, there hasn't really been anything new reported over the past few days, Covid-wise.

.Poppy.
29-07-21, 17:20
My county had a huge spike in cases that was reported yesterday, and four new deaths. We're not a large county, so it's concerning.

I'm leaving for a long weekend today to go hiking with my friend and am glad we'll be mainly outside, but still...my personal covid anxiety is reigniting. I am vaccinated, but am still scared, and am finding myself panicking over every scratch in my throat. I also woke up last night via panic attack that I, and my parents who are in their 60s, are all going to get covid and just be wiped out.

I'm supposed to go back to work starting next week, but I honestly feel less safe now than I did last year. Our numbers locally are higher than they were in the midst of all of it, and still only about 40% vaccinated and holding firm.

AntsyVee
29-07-21, 17:35
Remember Poppy, yes, some people are having breakthrough covid (meaning they got it despite being vaccinated), but they are in the minority. And if they do get covid, it's a mild case. The numbers you're seeing are among the unvaccinated.

.Poppy.
29-07-21, 17:42
Thanks. I’m trying to remember that, and to challenge my thoughts. My mom yesterday mentioned she had a stuffy nose and felt like maybe a cold, which didn’t help my spiral either. It’s my birthday weekend though so I’m going to try and enjoy it!

pulisa
29-07-21, 17:50
Happy Birthday, Poppy and I hope you manage to enjoy your hiking despite your anxiety.

I'm in my sixties and double jabbed like your parents but have no intention of getting wiped out by covid. It's not incredibly old although to you it must seem it!:D

fishman65
29-07-21, 18:06
My county had a huge spike in cases that was reported yesterday, and four new deaths. We're not a large county, so it's concerning.

I'm leaving for a long weekend today to go hiking with my friend and am glad we'll be mainly outside, but still...my personal covid anxiety is reigniting. I am vaccinated, but am still scared, and am finding myself panicking over every scratch in my throat. I also woke up last night via panic attack that I, and my parents who are in their 60s, are all going to get covid and just be wiped out.

I'm supposed to go back to work starting next week, but I honestly feel less safe now than I did last year. Our numbers locally are higher than they were in the midst of all of it, and still only about 40% vaccinated and holding firm.You're not alone with much of how you feel Poppy. The other night near bedtime I was feeling worn out and slightly 'off'. And yes you guessed it, I straight away thought covid. But next morning I was fine.

I think we all know too much about this virus thanks to the internet, knowledge is a double edged sword.

Lencoboy
29-07-21, 19:52
Happy Birthday, Poppy and I hope you manage to enjoy your hiking despite your anxiety.

I'm in my sixties and double jabbed like your parents but have no intention of getting wiped out by covid. It's not incredibly old although to you it must seem it!:D

With regards to those who are double-jabbed and concerned about 'breakthrough' infections, Dr JC suggested on his video last night that the vast majority of such cases so far are largely inconsequential and could (ironically) act as a kind of third 'booster' jab.

Phill2
30-07-21, 01:19
I'm with you Pulisa.
My wife and I are 68 and double jabbed but we still take it very carefully.

MyNameIsTerry
30-07-21, 06:39
Happy birthday, Poppy :birthday::birthday1:

MyNameIsTerry
30-07-21, 06:45
Some good news here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-58014546

But a bit naughty to inflate that figure. It does provide insight into Covid after all measures are removed. I expect it's also underestimated going forward since it's modelled on original Covid and not Delta.

Pamplemousse
30-07-21, 08:13
Contrary to what Terry has just posted (and living up to my "miserable little man" moniker), a rather stark report about Delta from the CDC in the US:

C.D.C. Internal Report Calls Delta Variant as Contagious as Chickenpox https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/30/health/covid-cdc-delta-masks.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC EIPuonUktbfqohkT1UYAybVUNEjsh3Bjv_RwbB5jXP1aSSYTSp LiuEcGIubvUfRYK4pL_0C4wOmfv4Terk-WK41ieZFI01mTwTvrsrblsgJLShw89vtBiZrgZyUGOA2rG6vY2 LhI7onz-K0s0uIenCqDPKEqQApJApgo5VldV6syCZIkv-DSrgpr4E4ifQxBZl6RSMCYj2LvpTqDRZ9OdaBaHLM-1V8GrEZCXyIw4nqu_9Xex5SCFnFUHp1_W49jdpZM9sVN6r6RAU yQgJuxxiCMRySuLsRbXONkQ

Whilst collecting my prescription (and a pack of LF tests whilst they remain free) I spotted that the local chemist is now asking people to register for flu jabs when they become available.

Fishmanpa
30-07-21, 13:02
Many will misinterpret the article. One must look at the big picture. The vaccines are at the least 85% effective and at most 95% effective in preventing illness, even with the variant. Take the lower number for example. 85% - basically saying 15 out of 100 has the chance of getting sick. The actual number that get it is less than that.

What the article is saying is that vaccinated individuals who get the virus are just as contagious as non vaxxed. That makes sense. If you're sick, you're sick and can spread the virus. Where the article is spot on is in how contagious the Delta variant really is. Vaxxed or not, if you get it, you're going to spread it. Add to that the 100's of thousands that get very mild symptoms or are asymptomatic and here we are. But then again, we've known that for some time now.

FMP

MyNameIsTerry
30-07-21, 16:25
I think the general consensus right now is (according to the 'experts') that daily cases are likely to 'bobble' up and down over the coming days/weeks, but it still all remains very much in limbo, and in the lap of the gods as to how things might or might not pan out, but hopefully things won't be anywhere near as dire as they were back in January.

Like I keep saying, only time will tell.

ZOE going down in their estimations from 60-58k. I can't help wondering what Spector is seeing? :huh:

From the app has increased to 806k but it's not much.

Remains to be seen in the increase on the dashboard is a blip or an upward trend.

Lencoboy
30-07-21, 16:58
ZOE going down in their estimations from 60-58k. I can't help wondering what Spector is seeing? :huh:

From the app has increased to 806k but it's not much.

Remains to be seen in the increase on the dashboard is a blip or an upward trend.

Well today's dashboard cases have resumed the downward trend (29k vs 31k yesterday) and the ZOE case figures are now also starting to show signs of declining (58k today).

Also, deaths have dropped a bit today.

fishman65
30-07-21, 20:49
Well B&M have clearly declared the pandemic well and truly over. About 20% of staff masked, likewise the customers. No social distancing, no kind of order at all. However Dunelm are quite the opposite. A doorman controlling the number of customers, hand sanitiser pointed to by said doorman, all staff masked. But then B&M is for 'rough' people so it figures.

Catkins
31-07-21, 06:02
I often go in B&M, it's across the road from where I work. I must say I was really surprised at how quickly they dispensed with everything. I still wear my mask when I go in though.

MyNameIsTerry
31-07-21, 06:12
Well today's dashboard cases have resumed the downward trend (29k vs 31k yesterday) and the ZOE case figures are now also starting to show signs of declining (58k today).

Also, deaths have dropped a bit today.

Yes, and hospital numbers have dropped for two days.

But a lot of areas are showing an increase today. May just be a blip...of what the Spector of Doom prophesied.

MyNameIsTerry
31-07-21, 06:19
Well B&M have clearly declared the pandemic well and truly over. About 20% of staff masked, likewise the customers. No social distancing, no kind of order at all. However Dunelm are quite the opposite. A doorman controlling the number of customers, hand sanitiser pointed to by said doorman, all staff masked. But then B&M is for 'rough' people so it figures.

Oy mate, I go in there. Do you want a fight?!!! https://yoursmiles.org/msmile/loon/m0531.gif

They dumped it all here. There was one member of staff in a mask, ironically working at the cigs & alcohol counter which always has a protective screen anyway. Otherwise no masked staff. They were also sluggish to respond to guidelines when it began. My brother said he wasn't surprised as he used to work in their warehouses.

On the bright side for we rough people Home Bargains have made no changes.

Lencoboy
31-07-21, 08:08
Yes, and hospital numbers have dropped for two days.

But a lot of areas are showing an increase today. May just be a blip...of what the Spector of Doom prophesied.

My area is now mostly darker blue on the dashboard map wheras a week ago it was still mostly lighter purple.

Perhaps some of the areas showing an increase right now are the ones that were lesser hit previously, as many of the previously hardest hit areas now so far appear to be past their peak.

BTW, me and my dad have both had colds over the past few days, and I tested negative for Covid yesterday with a LFT kit we got from our local pharmacy the other day, whose instructions I followed thoroughly, so possibly just a coincidence.

Having said that, a friend of our family we briefly met last weekend tested positive for Covid on Monday (26th July) despite having been double-jabbed, and he has reportedly had similar symptoms to us over the past few days, though he said he believes that he is now over the worst of it, and so far hasn't needed to be hospitalised.

And he is 70+.

Spector of Doom? LOL!!

MyNameIsTerry
31-07-21, 15:34
My area is now mostly darker blue on the dashboard map wheras a week ago it was still mostly lighter purple.

Perhaps some of the areas showing an increase right now are the ones that were lesser hit previously, as many of the previously hardest hit areas now so far appear to be past their peak.

BTW, me and my dad have both had colds over the past few days, and I tested negative for Covid yesterday with a LFT kit we got from our local pharmacy the other day, whose instructions I followed thoroughly, so possibly just a coincidence.

Having said that, a friend of our family we briefly met last weekend tested positive for Covid on Monday (26th July) despite having been double-jabbed, and he has reportedly had similar symptoms to us over the past few days, though he said he believes that he is now over the worst of it, and so far hasn't needed to be hospitalised.

And he is 70+.

Spector of Doom? LOL!!

Proof the vaccine works! I'm glad your family friend has had it mildly. That is a good reminder to us all to trust the scientists.

On the rise I mentioned, it's a lot of places. Some have been hit hard before. I'm not sure there is a pattern other than them being towns & cities. Some are bigger increases than others. But this pattern isn't uncommon as there have been a few lower days, an increase, then back to lower days showing a continual downward trend as even the blip days get lower. I wouldn't care much about it other than because of what Spector has said. I'm interested to see if he's right but I'm hoping he's wrong.

Lencoboy
31-07-21, 17:55
Proof the vaccine works! I'm glad your family friend has had it mildly. That is a good reminder to us all to trust the scientists.

On the rise I mentioned, it's a lot of places. Some have been hit hard before. I'm not sure there is a pattern other than them being towns & cities. Some are bigger increases than others. But this pattern isn't uncommon as there have been a few lower days, an increase, then back to lower days showing a continual downward trend as even the blip days get lower. I wouldn't care much about it other than because of what Spector has said. I'm interested to see if he's right but I'm hoping he's wrong.

Both Spector and Dr JC believe that daily cases might have been underrecorded for various reasons in spite of last week's sudden decline in dashboard cases, as ZOE's figures continued their upward trend (though perhaps more slowly than before) but have since over the past few days, started to decline.

At face value, it all does seem a bit out of kilter, but at least for now, I feel that I can forgive Spector since he's explained the situation a bit better, also explained similarly by Dr JC.

Even in long-running Covid hotspot Bolton, cases are now starting to decline once again, plus my borough's recent spike was thankfully only shortlived.

fishman65
31-07-21, 21:35
This Tim Spector bloke, is he the one who produced some of the Beatles later hits?

AntsyVee
31-07-21, 22:34
Lol no, that’s Phil Spector

pulisa
01-08-21, 08:03
I think that's Fishman's sense of humour making its mark again, Vee..?!

Lencoboy
01-08-21, 08:14
I think that's Fishman's sense of humour making its mark again, Vee..?!

When I first discovered the ZOE site I was erroneously referring to Tim Spector as Phil Spector in conversation with others!

Easily done I suppose with a familiar name we have known for donkeys years!

Lencoboy
01-08-21, 08:21
Oy mate, I go in there. Do you want a fight?!!! https://yoursmiles.org/msmile/loon/m0531.gif

They dumped it all here. There was one member of staff in a mask, ironically working at the cigs & alcohol counter which always has a protective screen anyway. Otherwise no masked staff. They were also sluggish to respond to guidelines when it began. My brother said he wasn't surprised as he used to work in their warehouses.

On the bright side for we rough people Home Bargains have made no changes.

The B&M Riots?

I can just imagine violent stampedes for toilet rolls and Nutella spread in there!

10-15 years ago it was (Chav)sda that was often dubbed the 'common-as-muck' superstore.

Prior to then it was Kwik Save. Just imagine them today in this pandemic situation had they survived beyond 2007 when they went bust?

Lencoboy
01-08-21, 14:58
So far today I've noticed that there's far less Covid-related news on the BBC website.

fishman65
01-08-21, 19:24
I think that's Fishman's sense of humour making its mark again, Vee..?!I'd have to get up early to catch you out Pulisa :D

pulisa
01-08-21, 19:54
Sorry...I couldn't just Let It Be..for Vee...:D

AntsyVee
01-08-21, 21:57
LOL I never know with FM sometimes...he's a weird one ;) With either Specter you choose though, the options are not good...

MyNameIsTerry
02-08-21, 06:22
Well let's hope James Bond gets the right one https://yoursmiles.org/psmile/military/p0238.gif