View Full Version : The Corona Conundrum
As many of you may probably already be aware, confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK have been on a very steadily upward trend for the past month or so, after reaching a low point at the beginning of July.
Despite this, over the same period the overall number of related deaths has continued its steadily downward trend (or at least more or less stabilised), with the same trend also applying to hospitalisations.
Up until today, Scotland has reported no CV- related deaths since 17th July, and NI have gone even longer without reporting any, but Wales has fluctuated between reporting no deaths in some days to reporting a few on others, whilst finally, England, has still reported deaths on a daily basis, albeit on a downward (or at least stable) trend.
Three possible explanations for the continued downward trend in overall CV death rates (though not gospel):
1. More younger people (typically below 35) have been contracting the virus over more recent weeks, and that age group are generally thought to be more resilient and less liable to die directly of the virus, though there have be the odd exceptions.
2. The recently discovered steroid that is supposedly capable of reducing deaths and aiding speedier recoveries may now be starting to see more widespread use in treatments for CV, and inadvertently lowering the death rates.
3. As already suggested by some scientists around the world, the virus might now be starting to evolve into a less lethal strain, which is also likely to yield lower death rates.
I could be talking a load of bull but it's still food for thought.
I heard it was due to the fact that loads more tests are taking place in areas where there are local outbreaks, compared to general national testing.
I heard it was due to the fact that loads more tests are taking place in areas where there are local outbreaks, compared to general national testing.
You could be correct there, Carys, though what I have found most interesting (and indeed baffling but nevertheless reassuring), as I have already mentioned above, is the cases edging upwards over the past month, but strangely still not culminating in increased death and hospitalisation rates so far, though only time will tell, of course.
Pamplemousse
09-08-20, 18:23
I think you may be correct in your assumption in points 1 and 2, Lencoboy - I note today we've passed the 1,000 cases a day barrier again this time with two outbreaks in Swindon. I think point 3 may be wishful thinking, although it is in a virus's best interest not to kill its hosts as without them it too dies.
It proves the disease is still out there and it still kills people though; and remember, we're mid-summer at the moment. If cases continue to rise, I doubt October and November will see as little as double-digit daily deaths. The Express (I know) is already running with various doomsday scenarios such as a second lockdown next month. I hope school children can return to schools safely next month (I won't mourn the closure, perhaps final, of pubs if necessary) as their social development is very important.
I do expect lock-down for obese over-50s in the next month or two, especially with pre-existing conditions. Guess that's me taking my pension early then.
ankietyjoe
09-08-20, 18:26
I heard it was due to the fact that loads more tests are taking place in areas where there are local outbreaks, compared to general national testing.
This is pretty much it imo.
Early statistics were mainly people being tested for confirmation who were already in trouble. There was a higher likelihood of them having serious or fatal complications. Many more would have been infected without even realising.
I think you may be correct in your assumption in points 1 and 2, Lencoboy - I note today we've passed the 1,000 cases a day barrier again this time with two outbreaks in Swindon. I think point 3 may be wishful thinking, although it is in a virus's best interest not to kill its hosts as without them it too dies.
It proves the disease is still out there and it still kills people though; and remember, we're mid-summer at the moment. If cases continue to rise, I doubt October and November will see as little as double-digit daily deaths. The Express (I know) is already running with various doomsday scenarios such as a second lockdown next month. I hope school children can return to schools safely next month (I won't mourn the closure, perhaps final, of pubs if necessary) as their social development is very important.
I do expect lock-down for obese over-50s in the next month or two, especially with pre-existing conditions. Guess that's me taking my pension early then.
Just to put the record straight (in a non-confrontational manner), the 'wishful thinking' regarding my third point isn't instigated by me, as I am just quoting something that has been suggested by a couple of scientists, and had it simply been my own idea, I wouldn't even have dared to mention it on here.
And as far as the Daily Express (Depress) are concerned, like their other rabid right-leaning rivals the Daily Fail and The Scum, we have to take whatever stuff they whack out with a pinch of salt.
Ironically, given today's case count is the highest since 25th June, the BBC News website has so far kept it low-key, with it only being mentioned in the daily 'Look-up tool' page on there, whereas I personally thought they would have otherwise made a much bigger deal of it.
Like I already mentioned in the main CV discussion thread earlier, they also don't appear to be bothering as much with their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page of late, which I also find a bit baffling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way accusing Aunty Beeb of playing down the CV thing ATM.
Pamplemousse
09-08-20, 23:36
Like I already mentioned in the main CV discussion thread earlier, they also don't appear to be bothering as much with their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page of late, which I also find a bit baffling.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way accusing Aunty Beeb of playing down the CV thing ATM.
They're getting bored with it. Have you ever listened to Don Henley's Dirty Laundry?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AhZ5lmLacI
They're getting bored with it. Have you ever listened to Don Henley's Dirty Laundry?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AhZ5lmLacI
Or probably now realising that all things Corona have pretty much been done to death since about February or so, and that other news also matters, though on the other hand, I wonder if it also smacks of complacency, especially given yesterday's daily case count being the highest since 25th June?
Re Don Henley's song 'Dirty Laundry', I have heard it as my dad has the DVD of The Eagles 'Live In Melbourne' that features that song, and it's pretty cool.
Guess what?
The BBC have reinstated their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page on their News website this morning.
Also, today's Daily Express (seen via the 'Papers' page on the BBC News website) has the polar opposite headline on the front page compared to the 'Doomsday scenario' headlines yesterday (as pointed out by Pamplemousse), suggesting that this country may be 'defeating the virus'!!
From one extreme report to the other, another factor in this 'conundrum'!!
Little wonder many feel confused.
Guess what?
The BBC have reinstated their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page on their News website this morning.
Also, today's Daily Express (seen via the 'Papers' page on the BBC News website) has the polar opposite headline on the front page compared to the 'Doomsday scenario' headlines yesterday (as pointed out by Pamplemousse), suggesting that this country may be 'defeating the virus'!!
From one extreme report to the other, another factor in this 'conundrum'!!
Little wonder many feel confused.
About fifteen minutes or so ago, I dared to take a quick peek at the Daily Depress website (normally avoided like the plague by me but today I somehow couldn't resist it) as I was interested in today's front page headline about Britain 'defeating the virus', but yesterday's story speculating about a possible second national lockdown in September is still active on there (the 'one extreme to the other' syndrome) and features an image of BoJo, but was actually suggested by a person who is a former govt adviser from 2000-07 (whose name I have already forgotten), so IMO said article comes across as a little dubious as it seems to be based on the opinions of just one person, and also that it hasn't (AFAIK) been covered by the BBC and other outlets.
If anyone dares to visit the DE website today, be warned, there are other articles on there ATM that could be potentially disturbing and triggering to some people on here, so view at your own risk!!
I'm still bewildered (in positive ways) about the CV deaths still being lower (and non-existent in both Scotland and NI for over an entire month despite spikes in both nations over the same period), despite the average daily cases now being back above 1k (apart from today's 713) and we were having similar daily case counts during the last week or two of March when people were dropping like flies in the hundreds every day, unlike now where it's in the single (since Saturday) or even very low double digits (last Wednesday to Friday).
I know the counting method for deaths in England was radically changed last Wednesday, and brought into line with the other UK nations, but nevertheless I still have a feeling that the virus might now be evolving into a lesser strain, though I reiterate that this is still not gospel and only what I am personally surmising, even though it has already been suggested by a couple of scientists before.
I'm still bewildered (in positive ways) about the CV deaths still being lower (and non-existent in both Scotland and NI for over an entire month despite spikes in both nations over the same period), despite the average daily cases now being back above 1k (apart from today's 713) and we were having similar daily case counts during the last week or two of March when people were dropping like flies in the hundreds every day, unlike now where it's in the single (since Saturday) or even very low double digits (last Wednesday to Friday).
I know the counting method for deaths in England was radically changed last Wednesday, and brought into line with the other UK nations, but nevertheless I still have a feeling that the virus might now be evolving into a lesser strain, though I reiterate that this is still not gospel and only what I am personally surmising, even though it has already been suggested by a couple of scientists before.
Well, the UK started out by only testing folk who were ill enough for hospitalisation, so of course a higher proportion of positive cases would end up succumbing to the effects of the virus if the only people being tested were already very unwell.
Now, most tests are carried out routinely, or on anyone with symptoms. A lot more of the positive cases now are in younger healthier people who aren’t ill enough to need medical intervention. It would be nice if the virus were mutating into less aggressive strains, but right now there just isn’t the evidence to suggest it is.
Well, the UK started out by only testing folk who were ill enough for hospitalisation, so of course a higher proportion of positive cases would end up succumbing to the effects of the virus if the only people being tested were already very unwell.
Now, most tests are carried out routinely, or on anyone with symptoms. A lot more of the positive cases now are in younger healthier people who aren’t ill enough to need medical intervention. It would be nice if the virus were mutating into less aggressive strains, but right now there just isn’t the evidence to suggest it is.
I most certainly agree with your reply.
Regarding the strain of the virus, I did actually say that it's only what I am surmising ATM and I completely acknowledge that there still isn't any proof that the virus could now be becoming less lethal.
Only time will tell and the real proof of the pudding will be at least over the next month or two.
BTW, congrats to all the people of your home nation of Scotland for managing to keep your CV deaths at zero for an entire month, a remarkable feat, regardless of whether the virus is actually changing or not.
Ditto NI.
I most certainly agree with your reply.
Regarding the strain of the virus, I did actually say that it's only what I am surmising ATM and I completely acknowledge that there still isn't any proof that the virus could now be becoming less lethal.
Only time will tell and the real proof of the pudding will be at least over the next month or two.
There is a little buzz from a handful of scientists who say that the viral strains are weakening in potency, but they’re largely in the minority, unfortunately.
This second wave we keep hearing about, how likely does everyone think this might happen? Because haven't the Nightingale hospitals been taken down? That would seem a strange policy if a second wave is on the cards.
MyNameIsTerry
18-08-20, 04:48
I'm still bewildered (in positive ways) about the CV deaths still being lower (and non-existent in both Scotland and NI for over an entire month despite spikes in both nations over the same period), despite the average daily cases now being back above 1k (apart from today's 713) and we were having similar daily case counts during the last week or two of March when people were dropping like flies in the hundreds every day, unlike now where it's in the single (since Saturday) or even very low double digits (last Wednesday to Friday).
I know the counting method for deaths in England was radically changed last Wednesday, and brought into line with the other UK nations, but nevertheless I still have a feeling that the virus might now be evolving into a lesser strain, though I reiterate that this is still not gospel and only what I am personally surmising, even though it has already been suggested by a couple of scientists before.
Maybe it's the whisky? https://yoursmiles.org/tsmile/drink/t0310.gif:yesyes:
It's still really odd that despite just one CV death each occurring in both in Scotland and NI respectively last week that both nations' trend of zero deaths has pretty much since resumed, even more baffling considering both nations having higher numbers of cases over the past 2-3 weeks or so, and their R-rates being higher than average compared to both England and Wales.
I know things could very well change in due course, but nevertheless, the Corona Conundrum still lives on.
MyNameIsTerry
24-08-20, 00:33
Shouldn't it return to zero if they are managing it? Death rates not indicating any upward trend are what we want but there will be blips just as someone healthy might die.
Shouldn't it return to zero if they are managing it? Death rates not indicating any upward trend are what we want but there will be blips just as someone healthy might die.
Whilst I absolutely agree with what you're saying Terry, it's all the hysteria that ensues with people jumping to conclusions that the second wave has now started when we're still not even over the first wave yet, coupled with all the other typical Doomsday commentary, that really gets me.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not in any way attempting to downplay this pandemic,
and I appreciate the fact that even just one death is still one too many (as the saying goes), but in the grand scheme of things it's negligible compared to the situation back in late March right through to about June or so when UK-wide, people were dying of CV in the hundreds on a daily basis, even brushing with the thousands on a couple of occasions back in April, even going by the new counting system in England.
And it's still a possibility that those who test positive for CV might actually die from something else (and completely unrelated) within the prescribed 28 days alone, such as a car crash/being run over, falling down the stairs head-first, heart failure, strokes, cancer, overdose, suffocation, drowning, house fires, you name it.
Despite 1,715 confirmed cases today (the highest for almost 3 months), just 1 confirmed death.
Still not sure as to whether the lower numbers typically announced on Sundays and Mondays (under the previous system of counting in England) still apply under the newer system.
Whatever the event, the deaths still appear to be lower on average than they were at the start of this month, regardless of the recent changes to the counting methods in England.
ETA, the last time case numbers hit this (approximate) number was on Thursday 28th May, but we had 343 deaths on that date, unlike just 1 today.
And that is the recently revised figure.
I know this thread is almost a year old now but today's stats from both the dashboard and ZOE seem to be showing a gulf. The dashboard site today has confirmed 48k cases whilst the ZOE site has confirmed 32,919 cases plus the latter site is saying that 'cases have now started to plateau ahead of Freedom Day', which to me sounds like ZOE are in cloud cuckoo land right now!
Also, the BBC website (as yet) still hasn't been making a song and dancing about today's 48k (dashboard) cases and daily deaths above 60, which I'm finding rather odd.
On another note, my borough is below 500 cases today, according to the dashboard site, though it's pretty much odds on that the numbers will start going up again after next Monday.
I know this thread is almost a year old now but today's stats from both the dashboard and ZOE seem to be showing a gulf. The dashboard site today has confirmed 48k cases whilst the ZOE site has confirmed 32,919 cases plus the latter site is saying that 'cases have now started to plateau ahead of Freedom Day', which to me sounds like ZOE are in cloud cuckoo land right now!
Also, the BBC website (as yet) still hasn't been making a song and dancing about today's 48k (dashboard) cases and daily deaths above 60, which I'm finding rather odd.
On another note, my borough is below 500 cases today, according to the dashboard site, though it's pretty much odds on that the numbers will start going up again after next Monday.
Also only just a few weeks ago the ZOE daily cases were higher than those of the dashboard, again following the then-previous cycle of being lower than those of the dashboard.
ZOE forever seem to keep flip-flopping with their counting methods.
While dashboard daily cases have seemingly been cycling up and down since mid-July, it seems that both hospitalisations and deaths are now starting to fall after rising exponentially over the same period.
A strange but encouraging trend.
MyNameIsTerry
01-10-21, 06:43
While dashboard daily cases have seemingly been cycling up and down since mid-July, it seems that both hospitalisations and deaths are now starting to fall after rising exponentially over the same period.
A strange but encouraging trend.
They seem to bob up & down. I expect they will start to rise again soon. It's the lag but this time the spikes are more staggered across the UK.
They seem to bob up & down. I expect they will start to rise again soon. It's the lag but this time the spikes are more staggered across the UK.
While there's still the odd chance that the current downward trends in recorded Covid hospitalisations and deaths could be just a temporary blip, it's still nevertheless encouraging signs that the criteria for a possible fourth national lockdown still isn't being met.
Still only time will tell, of course.
Perhaps it might now be a consequence of the combo of the vast majority now having been double-jabbed, coupled with a significant proportion of the population having already had Covid (both jabbed and still unjabbed) and successfully recovered, plus the majority of those most vulnerable to dying of the virus have now died already?
While there's still the odd chance that the current downward trends in recorded Covid hospitalisations and deaths could be just a temporary blip, it's still nevertheless encouraging signs that the criteria for a possible fourth national lockdown still isn't being met.
Still only time will tell, of course.
Perhaps it might now be a consequence of the combo of the vast majority now having been double-jabbed, coupled with a significant proportion of the population having already had Covid (both jabbed and still unjabbed) and successfully recovered, plus the majority of those most vulnerable to dying of the virus have now died already?
I would seriously doubt there will ever be another full on national lockdown. In fact, that may even set us back. Immunity to this virus is only going to get stronger as it is. We now have a huge percentage of the population fully vaccinated and another fairly large percentage immune due to previous infection.
It’s now very clear that the vaccination campaign has reduced bad outcomes from this virus quite substantially. In January and February, we had around 1200-1400 deaths per day. This, keep in mind, was with most hospitality venues closed and strict measures in place to keep people apart. We don’t have that now, we haven’t for a few months. Deaths are still happening, and yes any death is awful, but we’re talking about a maximum of about 100 per day if you average it out.
That’s a huge difference even with control measures in place. It’s even more remarkable that this drop in deaths comes at a time when pretty much every control measure has been removed. Imagine what the death rate would be without vaccination and no control measures in place? You’re talking thousands per day.
In all honesty, I don’t think this is being talked about as much as it should be. Everywhere you look people are saying the vaccines aren’t working due to the high levels of infection still being detected. It’s so short sighted. People need to realise that without vaccination those infection rates would be far higher and the bad outcomes from them would be unimaginable.
I would seriously doubt there will ever be another full on national lockdown. In fact, that may even set us back. Immunity to this virus is only going to get stronger as it is. We now have a huge percentage of the population fully vaccinated and another fairly large percentage immune due to previous infection.
It’s now very clear that the vaccination campaign has reduced bad outcomes from this virus quite substantially. In January and February, we had around 1200-1400 deaths per day. This, keep in mind, was with most hospitality venues closed and strict measures in place to keep people apart. We don’t have that now, we haven’t for a few months. Deaths are still happening, and yes any death is awful, but we’re talking about a maximum of about 100 per day if you average it out.
That’s a huge difference even with control measures in place. It’s even more remarkable that this drop in deaths comes at a time when pretty much every control measure has been removed. Imagine what the death rate would be without vaccination and no control measures in place? You’re talking thousands per day.
In all honesty, I don’t think this is being talked about as much as it should be. Everywhere you look people are saying the vaccines aren’t working due to the high levels of infection still being detected. It’s so short sighted. People need to realise that without vaccination those infection rates would be far higher and the bad outcomes from them would be unimaginable.
With regards your last paragraph, I reckon a lot of it is coming from the die-hard antivaxxers who are essentially using it as justification for not getting jabbed, and basically saying 'what's the point?', despite still-strong evidence to the contrary.
Also remember back in July when some experts were heavily predicting daily cases to hit 100k + by early August onwards, which still hasn't (yet) materialised.
And you're correct that so far during this third wave, daily Covid deaths have been way down on what they were back in December 2020-February 2021, which is mostly thanks to the vaccines, coupled with elements of herd immunity, all despite Delta. Plus an increasing number of cases now are much milder and inadvertently, inconsequential for the most part. Also, we're probably now the closest to the 'old' normal than we've been since late February 2020.
I seriously dread to imagine what the situation might have been by now had Covid vaccines still not existed.
Definitely stacks more cases, hospitalisations, deaths and endless waltzing in and out of lockdowns/restrictions.
Pamplemousse
01-10-21, 13:27
If you want to see how low the anti-vaxxers can go:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10045923/Fury-shameless-Piers-Corbyn-tries-hijack-Sarah-Everards-murder.html
MyNameIsTerry
01-10-21, 14:18
If you want to see how low the anti-vaxxers can go:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10045923/Fury-shameless-Piers-Corbyn-tries-hijack-Sarah-Everards-murder.html
It wouldn't surprise me if he started turning up at funerals to justify anti lockdown.
MyNameIsTerry
01-10-21, 14:19
I would seriously doubt there will ever be another full on national lockdown. In fact, that may even set us back. Immunity to this virus is only going to get stronger as it is. We now have a huge percentage of the population fully vaccinated and another fairly large percentage immune due to previous infection.
It’s now very clear that the vaccination campaign has reduced bad outcomes from this virus quite substantially. In January and February, we had around 1200-1400 deaths per day. This, keep in mind, was with most hospitality venues closed and strict measures in place to keep people apart. We don’t have that now, we haven’t for a few months. Deaths are still happening, and yes any death is awful, but we’re talking about a maximum of about 100 per day if you average it out.
That’s a huge difference even with control measures in place. It’s even more remarkable that this drop in deaths comes at a time when pretty much every control measure has been removed. Imagine what the death rate would be without vaccination and no control measures in place? You’re talking thousands per day.
In all honesty, I don’t think this is being talked about as much as it should be. Everywhere you look people are saying the vaccines aren’t working due to the high levels of infection still being detected. It’s so short sighted. People need to realise that without vaccination those infection rates would be far higher and the bad outcomes from them would be unimaginable.
I agree. The BBC give figures showing infections, hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination but it's very muted.
That's the media for you, death good life bad.
Pamplemousse
01-10-21, 15:06
Now, driving home last night I'm pretty sure I heard the Midnight news on Radio 4 claim that 112,000 deaths have been prevented by vaccination. How do they calculate that?
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/covid-vaccines-saved-112000-lives-uk-deputy-medical-officer-says-2021-09-14/
I agree. The BBC give figures showing infections, hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination but it's very muted.
That's the media for you, death good life bad.
Yeah, because many people find all the bad news far more exciting, as always.
spectrum123
01-10-21, 16:48
Now, driving home last night I'm pretty sure I heard the Midnight news on Radio 4 claim that 112,000 deaths have been prevented by vaccination. How do they calculate that?
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/covid-vaccines-saved-112000-lives-uk-deputy-medical-officer-says-2021-09-14/
With the information we have relating to infection rates, hospitalisations, and deaths both pre- and post-vaccination you can model a curve of probabilities, ideally you take the middle of the curve for your figure. The media and political parties tend to use each end of the curve to suit their narrative.
Now, driving home last night I'm pretty sure I heard the Midnight news on Radio 4 claim that 112,000 deaths have been prevented by vaccination. How do they calculate that?
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/covid-vaccines-saved-112000-lives-uk-deputy-medical-officer-says-2021-09-14/
Just guessing but I’d imagine it’s by weighing up infection levels post vaccination against infection levels pre vaccination. It’s maybe then just a case of comparing death rates to infections pre and post vaccination. Perhaps they’d factor in restrictions or lack thereof.
Again though, just a guess. It’s actually starting to bother me how little effort is put into showing the actual bloody data and how they’re arriving at certain conclusions.
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