View Full Version : Noticed something odd about the numbers
WiredIncorrectly
05-09-20, 20:48
I've noticed something odd with the numbers relating to COVID. This is not related to any conspiracy lmfao!
Since the start of August the daily diagnosed cases were around 1000+ ish. Slowly rising. But the death rate has remained absurdly low for that amount of cases diagnosed. You can compare this with June which had around 1000+ish diagnosed cases. The death rates were over 100.
Any idea why the death rates are not rising even though the cases are?
Facts and figures here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
This is happening in our area as well because highest group of people contracting the virus now are younger, and they survive. But they still go through 3-4 weeks of misery though.
A younger demographic as Vee says. Also more testing going on so more cases found. Mask wearing now very common whereas earlier in the year it was patchy at best. There are theories that masks reduce the viral load, so the wearer receives a smaller amount of the virus that the immune system can deal with more effectively.
This winter is going to be interesting though.
Well, in my opinion, our government made a rip roaring arse of it during the early days in the peak of this pandemic. The deaths in care homes made up a ridiculous percentage of the daily deaths, and it’s simply not acceptable.
I have been saying since early March that testing and tracing was the way to go, but for god knows what reason we decided to only test those with symptoms that rendered people hospitalised. We removed older folk from wards in hospitals and placed them into care settings WITHOUT testing those same people for Covid-19 before they got there.
It honestly is the most stupid political decision I’ve ever witnessed in my life. Multiple doctors, scientists and politicians should be hanging their heads in shame right about now. Their failure to recognise that error before it happened is something that should never be forgotten. It’s also, again only my opinion, a decision that cost in the region of 20,000 lives.
As for what’s happening now, yes, death rates are low and infection rates are relatively high. That’s because we’re dealing with a virus that overcomes those with an already slight immune system. Those who are being infected now are those who were definitely being infected in March/April, but because our government decided to only test those ill enough to be in hospital, those infections at that time were simply not picked up.
There isn’t a big mystery here at all. This virus is highly transmissible and for the most part, risky to those with existing ailments. In the 8 months or so since we learned of its existence, we’ve learned how to control it better. Do not be at all surprised if cases rise to around 2500-3000 a day.
Our government have been aiming for herd immunity from the get go. They got caught with their pants down in March and made a mess of it. Now, they realise that 99.9% of our population can contract and survive this virus, they’re quite happy to send kids to school and people back to work. Some of us will get quite ill, less of us will get ill enough to end up in hospital. A minute percentage of us will die.
Covid-19 is nothing more than another life risk that we have to live with. We reacted early because we didn’t understand it. Science has had time to catch up with it now, and I’m genuinely beginning to think that we need to start getting a more sensible perspective on this whole thing.
I've noticed something odd with the numbers relating to COVID. This is not related to any conspiracy lmfao!
Since the start of August the daily diagnosed cases were around 1000+ ish. Slowly rising. But the death rate has remained absurdly low for that amount of cases diagnosed. You can compare this with June which had around 1000+ish diagnosed cases. The death rates were over 100.
Any idea why the death rates are not rising even though the cases are?
Facts and figures here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
I started a similar thread on here about a month ago, titled 'The Corona Conundrum', as I was baffled by the increase in daily cases seemingly not corresponding with increased death rates and hospitalisations, and said trends have more or less continued during the time that has since elapsed, plus the overall death toll being dramatically revised down from 12th August, due to the counting method in England being brought into line with that of the rest of the UK, which has obviously decelerated the deaths figures all the more, at least superficially.
Though of course only time will tell as to how things pan out over the coming weeks and months.
Pamplemousse
06-09-20, 12:53
Well, in my opinion, our government made a rip roaring arse of it during the early days in the peak of this pandemic. The deaths in care homes made up a ridiculous percentage of the daily deaths, and it’s simply not acceptable.
I have been saying since early March that testing and tracing was the way to go, but for god knows what reason we decided to only test those with symptoms that rendered people hospitalised. We removed older folk from wards in hospitals and placed them into care settings WITHOUT testing those same people for Covid-19 before they got there.
It honestly is the most stupid political decision I’ve ever witnessed in my life. Multiple doctors, scientists and politicians should be hanging their heads in shame right about now. Their failure to recognise that error before it happened is something that should never be forgotten. It’s also, again only my opinion, a decision that cost in the region of 20,000 lives.
It was never an error. Given that certain advisers close to the PM believe in eugenics and have employed eugenicists before righteous public outrage saw them removed I'm afraid it doesn't surprise me one iota. This Government has always looked for the cheapest solution and that was "herd immunity". So what if it kills your nan? She was going to die anyway. The spectacle of the so-called "Nightingale Hospitals" was just a PR stunt because they didn't have appropriate staff to man them.
Conspiracy theorist? No, just a realist who knows a neo-Fascist Government when he sees one, and I don't say that lightly. They're a bunch of clueless chancers who were elected solely to "get Brexit done" to appease Northern xenophobes and enable their mates to make a killing on 'shorting' Sterling when it all goes tits-up on 1/1/21.
It seems like today's cases have pretty much doubled overnight (2,988), though the hospitalisation rate still remains low (and stable at least), and just 2 confirmed deaths today.
Pamplemousse
06-09-20, 16:28
Deaths = weekend but I'm wondering if there has been an inclusion of historical cases as well.
It does nothing to dispel my suspicion of the clown car we call a government.
It does nothing to dispel my suspicion of the clown car we call a government.
LMAO! I know that feeling well!
Deaths = weekend but I'm wondering if there has been an inclusion of historical cases as well.
It does nothing to dispel my suspicion of the clown car we call a government.
Your former paragraph;
Could well be historical cases as well, but possibly more tests.
Your latter paragraph;
As much as I agree with you about our govt being a joke, the UK is not alone as as you know, France and Spain are also in the same boat with escalating cases.
But at least (as yet) it doesn't appear to be manifesting in significantly increased hospitalisations (or deaths), though time will tell, of course.
WiredIncorrectly
06-09-20, 18:44
Do not be at all surprised if cases rise to around 2500-3000 a day.
You seen the news today? You are fortune teller my friend. Do me a favor, PM me the lottery numbers :shades:
WiredIncorrectly
06-09-20, 18:46
It seems like today's cases have pretty much doubled overnight (2,988), though the hospitalisation rate still remains low (and stable at least), and just 2 confirmed deaths today.
If these cases continue like this then we should see a rise in death rates right? At least to some degree?
Pamplemousse
06-09-20, 19:59
The cynic/curmudgeon in me says they killed all the elderly off in the beginning and the vulnerable are now exceedingly cautious, whilst the low death rate can be attributed to people taking more than 28 days to die from it after the positive test.
If these cases continue like this then we should see a rise in death rates right? At least to some degree?
Not necessarily. Most of these infections are being found via routine screening, which implies that these folk have either mild illness or are completely asymptomatic.
As I said, these infections have been happening since the start of this pandemic, they’re being picked up now because of more access to testing.
ankietyjoe
06-09-20, 20:04
At the start, the official cases numbers were mostly from people already in hospital, and those are the ones that are far more likely to die. In other words, recorded cases were almost entirely from people in deep shit.
Now, mass testing is producing much higher numbers of cases versus deaths. People with only mild symptoms are being recorded as a statistic, and they weren't before.
Oy, I'd love to win the lotto.
Edit: If I win the lotto, I'm hiring a maid.
Seems fairly obvious that more cases are being reported now because (a) more tests being done and these are not restricted to hospital cases (b) lot of spread among among the younger population who have since lockdown was eased, been gathering en masse and (c) lots of people now coming back from holidays in Europe and bringing back infection with them.Numbers although high are probably a more actual reflection of infection in the community at large rather than as was the case back in March of just hospitalized cases or the vulnerable who copped the worst dose of it back then. If varied opinion is to be be believed, the infection rate back in March in the community was 5 times higher than official figures cited (these were not tested and went unreported). If looked at in this light the case numbers now are 5 times lower than back at the start of the epidemicI don't think the government is going for an official policy of herd immunity - this is just happening naturally as is the usual way with viruses.
Seems fairly obvious that more cases are being reported now because (a) more tests being done and these are not restricted to hospital cases (b) lot of spread among among the younger population who have since lockdown was eased, been gathering en masse and (c) lots of people now coming back from holidays in Europe and bringing back infection with them.Numbers although high are probably a more actual reflection of infection in the community at large rather than as was the case back in March of just hospitalized cases or the vulnerable who copped the worst dose of it back then. If varied opinion is to be be believed, the infection rate back in March in the community was 5 times higher than official figures cited (these were not tested and went unreported). If looked at in this light the case numbers now are 5 times lower than back at the start of the epidemicI don't think the government is going for an official policy of herd immunity - this is just happening naturally as is the usual way with viruses.
Agree with you Dorabella, especially about people returning from their holidays abroad (which they could have waited at least another year for IMO).
But of course, people will still be getting hysterical over today's case count and jumping to conclusions that the second wave has officially started and saying 'I told you so'!!
Still don't know as to whether or not a second national lockdown would be worth it. IMO, it would probably prove futile and would be met with widespread derision, especially following all the recent protests over various issues in central London and other major cities.
At the start, the official cases numbers were mostly from people already in hospital, and those are the ones that are far more likely to die. In other words, recorded cases were almost entirely from people in deep shit.
Now, mass testing is producing much higher numbers of cases versus deaths. People with only mild symptoms are being recorded as a statistic, and they weren't before.
Good point.
WiredIncorrectly
07-09-20, 00:13
I honestly feel a bit dumb here. I still don't get it. In July the numbers were around 1,000 reported cases and deaths around 100. 2 weeks ago the reported cases was around 1,000 but death rates higher. I don't get how in 1 month the cases are the same, but deaths absurdly low in comparison to the same figures in July. I hope I make sense here.
Ohhhh wait I think I get it.
Because more people are tested now it's revealing large numbers of less-symptomatic people that otherwise wouldn't have been picked up. So the testing is now catching the young etc who are not at risk of death.
Literally clocked it as I was writing so I'll continue to post this to show where my thinking was off. This is why I ask these questions because I know somewhere there's a logical explanation.
I honestly feel a bit dumb here. I still don't get it. In July the numbers were around 1,000 reported cases and deaths around 100. 2 weeks ago the reported cases was around 1,000 but death rates higher. I don't get how in 1 month the cases are the same, but deaths absurdly low in comparison to the same figures in July. I hope I make sense here.
Ohhhh wait I think I get it.
Because more people are tested now it's revealing large numbers of less-symptomatic people that otherwise wouldn't have been picked up. So the testing is now catching the young etc who are not at risk of death.
Literally clocked it as I was writing so I'll continue to post this to show where my thinking was off. This is why I ask these questions because I know somewhere there's a logical explanation.
Did you not learn of the changes to England's counting system for the CV deaths from the 12th August onwards, with the 28 day time limit between testing positive and death?
And young people have still been known to die from CV (albeit very rarely), but are more likely to survive and recover fully.
Not necessarily. Most of these infections are being found via routine screening, which implies that these folk have either mild illness or are completely asymptomatic.
As I said, these infections have been happening since the start of this pandemic, they’re being picked up now because of more access to testing.
I wish more people would view the current situation in the context you have stated above.
Sadly this bloke I know, who is a serial pessimist, is convinced the pandemic situation in the UK is now much worse than back in the spring, and keeps harping on about governmental conspiracies and the like. I did try to explain that it seemed that mainly the most serious cases were probably accounting for the bulk of our initial spike, those that result(ed) in hospitalisations and/or deaths, unlike now, less serious cases are now being accounted for, especially persons who are asymptomatic and/or are carrying dead cells.
But as per usual, he weren't having none of it. And still moans for England about having to mask up in shops and the like.
I wish more people would view the current situation in the context you have stated above.
Sadly this bloke I know, who is a serial pessimist, is convinced the pandemic situation in the UK is now much worse than back in the spring, and keeps harping on about governmental conspiracies and the like. I did try to explain that it seemed that mainly the most serious cases were probably accounting for the bulk of our initial spike, those that result(ed) in hospitalisations and/or deaths, unlike now, less serious cases are now being accounted for, especially persons who are asymptomatic and/or are carrying dead cells.
But as per usual, he weren't having none of it. And still moans for England about having to mask up in shops and the like.
The positive cases now are largely in folk who are either routinely screened, such as care home workers and healthcare workers, and people who kind of maybe have symptoms of Covid-19. The way I see it, if we were seeing 10,000 new cases per day when testing was kept for those who required medical intervention, you could probably add another 10,000 people to that list who either had mild illness or no symptoms at all.
As much as nobody wants to see the new cases rise, there is absolutely no question, for me anyway, that the rate of true new infections in the UK now are absolutely nowhere near what they were at the peak. Do also keep in mind that we are testing at a rate far and above what we were at the peak, and the percentages of positive tests are still incredibly low when measured up against tests performed. In Scotland, the rate of positive cases per day is around 1.8% of those tested. That’s honestly almost low enough to be called negligible.
MyNameIsTerry
07-09-20, 23:57
Well, in my opinion, our government made a rip roaring arse of it during the early days in the peak of this pandemic. The deaths in care homes made up a ridiculous percentage of the daily deaths, and it’s simply not acceptable.
I have been saying since early March that testing and tracing was the way to go, but for god knows what reason we decided to only test those with symptoms that rendered people hospitalised. We removed older folk from wards in hospitals and placed them into care settings WITHOUT testing those same people for Covid-19 before they got there.
It honestly is the most stupid political decision I’ve ever witnessed in my life. Multiple doctors, scientists and politicians should be hanging their heads in shame right about now. Their failure to recognise that error before it happened is something that should never be forgotten. It’s also, again only my opinion, a decision that cost in the region of 20,000 lives.
As for what’s happening now, yes, death rates are low and infection rates are relatively high. That’s because we’re dealing with a virus that overcomes those with an already slight immune system. Those who are being infected now are those who were definitely being infected in March/April, but because our government decided to only test those ill enough to be in hospital, those infections at that time were simply not picked up.
There isn’t a big mystery here at all. This virus is highly transmissible and for the most part, risky to those with existing ailments. In the 8 months or so since we learned of its existence, we’ve learned how to control it better. Do not be at all surprised if cases rise to around 2500-3000 a day.
Our government have been aiming for herd immunity from the get go. They got caught with their pants down in March and made a mess of it. Now, they realise that 99.9% of our population can contract and survive this virus, they’re quite happy to send kids to school and people back to work. Some of us will get quite ill, less of us will get ill enough to end up in hospital. A minute percentage of us will die.
Covid-19 is nothing more than another life risk that we have to live with. We reacted early because we didn’t understand it. Science has had time to catch up with it now, and I’m genuinely beginning to think that we need to start getting a more sensible perspective on this whole thing.
Also worth noting care homes weren't even being included early on and the mortality rates were still far higher than now.
I also don't buy the masks being a reason for less cases without further analysis. It raises questions about why we don't have higher hospitalisation and mortality rates. I suspect it's more a combination of factors e.g. pubs (as if drunks will be distancing when they can't follow other rules/laws), relaxation by people as the perception it's gone, more people forced together by return to work. Masks may be a factor but these are greater reasons for younger generations to catch it. The mystery is what factors prevent the worth cases happening. Have our hospitals got better at treating it?
MyNameIsTerry
07-09-20, 23:59
It was never an error. Given that certain advisers close to the PM believe in eugenics and have employed eugenicists before righteous public outrage saw them removed I'm afraid it doesn't surprise me one iota. This Government has always looked for the cheapest solution and that was "herd immunity". So what if it kills your nan? She was going to die anyway. The spectacle of the so-called "Nightingale Hospitals" was just a PR stunt because they didn't have appropriate staff to man them.
Conspiracy theorist? No, just a realist who knows a neo-Fascist Government when he sees one, and I don't say that lightly. They're a bunch of clueless chancers who were elected solely to "get Brexit done" to appease Northern xenophobes and enable their mates to make a killing on 'shorting' Sterling when it all goes tits-up on 1/1/21.
We're not all xenophobes up here, regardless of the way we voted in the referendum.
MyNameIsTerry
08-09-20, 00:03
I honestly feel a bit dumb here. I still don't get it. In July the numbers were around 1,000 reported cases and deaths around 100. 2 weeks ago the reported cases was around 1,000 but death rates higher. I don't get how in 1 month the cases are the same, but deaths absurdly low in comparison to the same figures in July. I hope I make sense here.
Ohhhh wait I think I get it.
Because more people are tested now it's revealing large numbers of less-symptomatic people that otherwise wouldn't have been picked up. So the testing is now catching the young etc who are not at risk of death.
Literally clocked it as I was writing so I'll continue to post this to show where my thinking was off. This is why I ask these questions because I know somewhere there's a logical explanation.
Yes, all the way from the start we were told the mortality rate would be around 2%. My local area was reporting 11-13% all the way once it really kicked off. The numbers were heavily skewed because they only reported those most likely to die i.e. hospitalised.
Germany reported the lot. Their numbers were much lower.
The positive cases now are largely in folk who are either routinely screened, such as care home workers and healthcare workers, and people who kind of maybe have symptoms of Covid-19. The way I see it, if we were seeing 10,000 new cases per day when testing was kept for those who required medical intervention, you could probably add another 10,000 people to that list who either had mild illness or no symptoms at all.
As much as nobody wants to see the new cases rise, there is absolutely no question, for me anyway, that the rate of true new infections in the UK now are absolutely nowhere near what they were at the peak. Do also keep in mind that we are testing at a rate far and above what we were at the peak, and the percentages of positive tests are still incredibly low when measured up against tests performed. In Scotland, the rate of positive cases per day is around 1.8% of those tested. That’s honestly almost low enough to be called negligible.
Very wise words there, Gary.
I think the problem with a lot of people, especially the 'serial pessimist' that I know, is so-called 'confirmation bias'.
On a more positive note, have a look at Dr Campbell's latest vid on YouTube, incidentally titled 'Optimism'.
Yes, all the way from the start we were told the mortality rate would be around 2%. My local area was reporting 11-13% all the way once it really kicked off. The numbers were heavily skewed because they only reported those most likely to die i.e. hospitalised.
Germany reported the lot. Their numbers were much lower.
Recent research by Queen Mary university is suggesting that gp’s recorded around 9000 suspected cases between February and April. These were never entered into official figures as these cases were never tested.
Obviously not all of those will be absolute cases, but at that time, during the peak in the UK, a fair percentage must have been. That’s not even mentioning those with mild illness or those asymptomatic cases that never went as far as reporting symptoms to a gp.
The study suggests that, at the height of the pandemic, cases were 3 times higher than those officially recorded.
It has always been inevitable that as time went by we would get a better and more accurate grasp on the true scale of infections and be able to more accurately deduce an actual mortality rate. At this point even a 2% mortality rate is looking quite wide of the mark.
Dr Campbell has suggested a mortality rate as low as 0.3% However its not just about deaths, there is what has been dubbed 'long covid' where people suffer symptoms for months after the initial infection.
Isn't Long Covid just a version of post viral syndrome? I've had chronic pain since having pleurisy nearly 3 years ago..Is it anything new or yet another Covid-related phenomenon receiving too much media attention?
So my 30 yr old cousin (remember aunt and uncles got it too) that got Covid has the long covid/post viral syndrome. He was feeling super sick for 3-4 weeks with Covid. He had no underlying health conditions and is pretty fit. Now he has that post viral syndrome where he is easily fatigued, has chest pains, and gets out of breath easily. I think the reason that they're making a big deal out of it is because it's pretty rare for fit 30 year olds like my cousin to have that kind of reaction. Even though these younger people with Covid survive, so many of them feel horrible for weeks on end.
WiredIncorrectly
08-09-20, 21:27
The past two days have been crazy. In the 2000's for daily cases. Prepare for another 6 months of s***t folks.
MyNameIsTerry
09-09-20, 00:44
Isn't Long Covid just a version of post viral syndrome? I've had chronic pain since having pleurisy nearly 3 years ago..Is it anything new or yet another Covid-related phenomenon receiving too much media attention?
I agree. I think we are in danger of creating another spectre here. We are used to the cold going away and everything is fine but the reality is many have weeks of symptoms afterwards. Some get worse and think they have caught another one.
I remember after being in hospital with pneumonia many years ago I spent nearly 2 months recovering. After a month I was due to return to college but spent a further month off due to a low platelet count.
So, the medical world need to be careful in explaining this as it may not be unique to this virus. If someone gets hit badly with covid they may spend time recovering whereas someone else doesn't but that's no different than flu to my knowledge or even colds.
MyNameIsTerry
09-09-20, 01:44
Recent research by Queen Mary university is suggesting that gp’s recorded around 9000 suspected cases between February and April. These were never entered into official figures as these cases were never tested.
Obviously not all of those will be absolute cases, but at that time, during the peak in the UK, a fair percentage must have been. That’s not even mentioning those with mild illness or those asymptomatic cases that never went as far as reporting symptoms to a gp.
The study suggests that, at the height of the pandemic, cases were 3 times higher than those officially recorded.
It has always been inevitable that as time went by we would get a better and more accurate grasp on the true scale of infections and be able to more accurately deduce an actual mortality rate. At this point even a 2% mortality rate is looking quite wide of the mark.
That's going to be very interesting, especially in light of the rising numbers now so people don't panic thinking the line on the chart means the same on the media sites.
The past two days have been crazy. In the 2000's for daily cases. Prepare for another 6 months of s***t folks.
I agree it's a major cause for concern, but let's just wait and see whilst trying not to jump to conclusions at this stage.
ankietyjoe
09-09-20, 13:18
So my 30 yr old cousin (remember aunt and uncles got it too) that got Covid has the long covid/post viral syndrome. He was feeling super sick for 3-4 weeks with Covid. He had no underlying health conditions and is pretty fit. Now he has that post viral syndrome where he is easily fatigued, has chest pains, and gets out of breath easily. I think the reason that they're making a big deal out of it is because it's pretty rare for fit 30 year olds like my cousin to have that kind of reaction. Even though these younger people with Covid survive, so many of them feel horrible for weeks on end.
This is all completely normal with a bad virus and not exclusive to Covid.
It took me nearly 3 months to even begin to get over a bad chest infection once. Remember, your body is battling with something that can kill you (covid, bronchitis, pneumonia etc etc), so you're not going to bounce back in a couple of days.
WiredIncorrectly
09-09-20, 15:01
This is all completely normal with a bad virus and not exclusive to Covid. It took me nearly 3 months to even begin to get over a bad chest infection once. Remember, your body is battling with something that can kill you (covid, bronchitis, pneumonia etc etc), so you're not going to bounce back in a couple of days. Bronchitis and pneumonia are deadly. Isn't it the pneumonia part that kills in COVID?
Another thing bugging me ATM is the R-rates seem to be at odds with some of the areas on the national CV watchlist (and vice versa), such as the entire county of Norfolk being on the watchlist despite Eastern England's R-rate not being above 1, whilst the South West of England's R-rate is just above 1 but not on the watchlist, though I'm not sure as to whether or not Swindon counts as the SW.
At least today's deaths are back down to single figures (8) so hopefully yesterday's figure of 32 might just have been a blip, though still in itself a far cry from back in April when the daily death count exceeded 1k on a couple of occasions, though there's now much speculation that the overall number of actual daily cases in this country could well have been in excess of 100k per day on average, which kind of makes sense.
Pamplemousse
09-09-20, 17:42
Have a squint at this, folks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347
Also, the Beeb did a piece about "long Covid" - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54031587
Have a squint at this, folks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54064347
Also, the Beeb did a piece about "long Covid" - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54031587
I did actually post the first link in the main discussion thread earlier on, but I still take my hat off to you for doing so on this thread nevertheless.
WiredIncorrectly
10-09-20, 04:01
Are there any public statistics on the numbers of tests done per day? Maybe a spreadsheet, or CSV file?
MyNameIsTerry
10-09-20, 06:06
Are there any public statistics on the numbers of tests done per day? Maybe a spreadsheet, or CSV file?
Dashboard here:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
WiredIncorrectly
10-09-20, 14:19
Dashboard here:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing
Thank Terry. My Google fu really sucks these days; or Google have made it harder to find what you need.
Thank Terry. My Google fu really sucks these days; or Google have made it harder to find what you need.
I think the problem is too many conflicting stats from too many rival sources trying to compete with each other.
I've given up viewing the Coronavirus discussion thread on Digital Spy because there are a couple of FMs on there who keep posting a myriad of figures from different sources (e.g, ZOE, Pathways, etc) in addition to the usual sources, and I find it both confusing and tedious, as some appear to have differing and sometimes, conflicting/contradictory info.
WiredIncorrectly
11-09-20, 11:09
I think the problem is too many conflicting stats from too many rival sources trying to compete with each other. I've given up viewing the Coronavirus discussion thread on Digital Spy because there are a couple of FMs on there who keep posting a myriad of figures from different sources (e.g, ZOE, Pathways, etc) in addition to the usual sources, and I find it both confusing and tedious, as some appear to have differing and sometimes, conflicting/contradictory info. Misinformation everywhere. Just follow the numbers, and common sense. I knew these numbers were off when I first posted this, and I even estimated in a couple of threads by the end of September we'll be in a lockdown situation. And thus far every prediction I've made has been true. And all I'm using is common sense. I was one of the first in the UK to pull my child out of school. Everybody said I was stupid. 3 days later the school closed anyway. I know people mean well an all but we've got to be realistic here for our own safety, instead of following media sources who have known to tell the truth and are always spinning yarns for sensationalism and advertising revenue.
Misinformation everywhere. Just follow the numbers, and common sense. I knew these numbers were off when I first posted this, and I even estimated in a couple of threads by the end of September we'll be in a lockdown situation. And thus far every prediction I've made has been true. And all I'm using is common sense. I was one of the first in the UK to pull my child out of school. Everybody said I was stupid. 3 days later the school closed anyway. I know people mean well an all but we've got to be realistic here for our own safety, instead of following media sources who have known to tell the truth and are always spinning yarns for sensationalism and advertising revenue.
Like I just posted in the main CV discussion thread, there is a lot of hyperbolic use of the term 'lockdown', which means what happened in Leicester over the summer, and nationwide over the spring, where as what's currently happening in Bolton and what will be happening in the worst affected areas of the W. Mids from Tuesday, are merely 'restrictions', and not full-on lockdowns.
I just wish journalists would get the facts straight, and not resort to highly emotive, hyperbolic and sensationalist lingo like 'lockdown', 'second wave', etc.
Even the BBC have been at it at times.
On the UK's CV dashboard site there are two different sets of figures for cases.
1. Cases by date of reporting, which corresponds with the daily cases reported on the BBC News, etc.
2. Cases by specimen.
I don't really know which is the more accurate of the two, but someone on Digital Spy mentioned it the other day.
With regards to the former set of figures, which seems to get the greatest media attention, it does appear that the daily case stats have been flip-flopping a lot over the past week. Last Friday we reached 3k territory for the first time since May, dropped back down to 2,621 on Monday, then soared to 3,991 on Wednesday, then back down to 3,395 yesterday. Perhaps this could be due to fluctuations in test processing, in which the cases by specimen might be more representative, though not completely sure.
There are also two different sets of figures for the deaths, with one stating the daily figures quoted by the BBC, etc, and the other one generally seems to have lower figures.
WiredIncorrectly
18-09-20, 16:19
In my area every school has had pupils with positive COVID tests. But the schools are still remaining open; they're just sending the kids with COVID home. Insanity. The other kids would have been in contact with the infected and they're going to pick it up anyway.
WiredIncorrectly
18-09-20, 16:20
With regards to the former set of figures, which seems to get the greatest media attention, it does appear that the daily case stats have been flip-flopping a lot over the past week. Last Friday we reached 3k territory for the first time since May, dropped back down to 2,621 on Monday, then soared to 3,991 on Wednesday, then back down to 3,395 yesterday. Perhaps this could be due to fluctuations in test processing.
Exactly that. There were reports of testing problems mid last week.
MyNameIsTerry
19-09-20, 00:19
Unless you are going to calculate the deviations to see whether fluctuations are within expected tolerance I don't think you can derive much from them other than trend over time.
WiredIncorrectly
19-09-20, 18:01
We now that that lovely smile.
It's just a shame other people were not cautious enough to notice it. They had their head in newspapers while congregating down the local pub :whistles: ... or they were shooting Grouse.
National lockdown here we come. The media has been softening the blow all week. Boris is about to announce it. I give it less than 7 days before we're all locked up again.
We now that that lovely smile.
It's just a shame other people were not cautious enough to notice it. They had their head in newspapers while congregating down the local pub :whistles: ... or they were shooting Grouse.
National lockdown here we come. The media has been softening the blow all week. Boris is about to announce it. I give it less than 7 days before we're all locked up again.
And we all know whose fault it is don't we?
I know there is usually a 3-week lag between confirmed positive cases and deaths and deaths have unfortunately started to edge up a bit over the past couple of weeks, but still at relatively low levels ATM compared to earlier in the pandemic. (37 for 2 days running, although yesterday was Tuesday of course). And this is despite the daily cases being back in 4-digit figures since the beginning of August, and during the latter half of March were having far more deaths per day with far less cases, that is if the cases were actually correct, of course.
Having said that in Spain and France, their 'second waves' of positive infections have been even greater than their first ones recently, whilst overall deaths in both countries have still remained lower than during their first respective waves.
I know there is usually a 3-week lag between confirmed positive cases and deaths and deaths have unfortunately started to edge up a bit over the past couple of weeks, but still at relatively low levels ATM compared to earlier in the pandemic. (37 for 2 days running, although yesterday was Tuesday of course). And this is despite the daily cases being back in 4-digit figures since the beginning of August, and during the latter half of March were having far more deaths per day with far less cases, that is if the cases were actually correct, of course.
Having said that in Spain and France, their 'second waves' of positive infections have been even greater than their first ones recently, whilst overall deaths in both countries have still remained lower than during their first respective waves.
Again, this so called “second wave” thus far is an absolute picnic compared to March and April. It’s estimated that in early April there were as many as 100,000 new cases per day that simply were not picked up due to testing being limited to those ill enough to be placed into medical settings.
It took until the end of April before testing was ramped up to anything like 100,000 per day, when you consider this compared to an average of 350,000 per day now, you can see the difference. The positive cases now are STILL lower than April, and that’s with this huge expansion in testing.
The important number that proves growth now is the percentage of positive cases to testing capacity. Anything above 5% per day signifies exponential growth, we are teetering on that brink now so we need to slam the brakes on for a bit just to get those percentages down.
I think looking at positive cases per day is a bit of a waste of time, you need to compare the testing volume capacity for that number to have any context whatsoever.
Again, this so called “second wave” thus far is an absolute picnic compared to March and April. It’s estimated that in early April there were as many as 100,000 new cases per day that simply were not picked up due to testing being limited to those ill enough to be placed into medical settings.
It took until the end of April before testing was ramped up to anything like 100,000 per day, when you consider this compared to an average of 350,000 per day now, you can see the difference. The positive cases now are STILL lower than April, and that’s with this huge expansion in testing.
The important number that proves growth now is the percentage of positive cases to testing capacity. Anything above 5% per day signifies exponential growth, we are teetering on that brink now so we need to slam the brakes on for a bit just to get those percentages down.
I think looking at positive cases per day is a bit of a waste of time, you need to compare the testing volume capacity for that number to have any context whatsoever.
You're probably right there Gary.
Also the current situation might very well be a walk in the park compared to back in the spring, especially as a lot more is now known compared to back then, coupled with the far greater number of daily tests now compared to the March-May period, though we should still keep being vigilant of course.
It does seem that the panic situation has now been mostly reversed, it's the govt that seem to be doing most of the panicking right now whilst much of the general public don't seem to give a damn, unlike back in February and early March this year much of the general public were trembling in their boots at the very mention of the word Coronavirus, whilst the govt were caught napping over it and more concerned about 'getting Brexit done'!!
glassgirlw
28-09-20, 03:10
I will say that although, admittedly our response to Covid here in the US has been just horribly embarrassing, thankfully our death rates have dramatically decreased here over the last couple months. At least in my state (Midwest). There is a daily broadcast by a couple high ranking doctors for the largest health system here in Kansas, they’re amazing, and give a calm and well thought out briefing each day. They also answer questions from the media and public. Both doctors largely attribute the decreasing death rate to not only the age of people being mainly affected now (under 40) but also to the fact that we know more now than we did in February about treating this virus,and what all it can affect other than just the respiratory system. I love watching them because they don’t fuel mass panic.
I will say that although, admittedly our response to Covid here in the US has been just horribly embarrassing, thankfully our death rates have dramatically decreased here over the last couple months. At least in my state (Midwest). There is a daily broadcast by a couple high ranking doctors for the largest health system here in Kansas, they’re amazing, and give a calm and well thought out briefing each day. They also answer questions from the media and public. Both doctors largely attribute the decreasing death rate to not only the age of people being mainly affected now (under 40) but also to the fact that we know more now than we did in February about treating this virus,and what all it can affect other than just the respiratory system. I love watching them because they don’t fuel mass panic.
Sounds like your local answer to the likes of our very own Dr John Campbell.
I agree that a lot more is now known about the virus the world over compared to back in February and what we had back then was just the tip of the iceberg. Our own Dr JC mentioned in his YouTube video yesterday in reference to our latest T&T app which suggests active cases of the virus are still very likely to be more widespread than the daily stats tell us, which gives even more credibility to the likelihood of overall infections back in February-March (in the UK in particular) actually being in excess of approximately 200k at the time, which is still far greater than at present.
Both my parents had their annual flu jab around this time last year as well (but not me) and all 3 of us had this nasty flu-like virus midway through February which had many of the hallmarks of Covid 19 (though I never had any major breathing difficulties but had the other symptoms), so I still believe it's odds on that we could well have had Covid back then, but disguised as hidden/unconfirmed cases, given our authorities were still mostly napping over it at the time, but if that was the case, we luckily survived and naturally recovered, though we had our illnesses for approximately 2 and a half weeks.
Perhaps the flu jabs my parents had last autumn demonstrates it could well have been Covid, but thankfully non-fatal.
Over on the Digital Spy forum ATM there are a couple of FMs who are blatantly disputing the decline in today's cases, saying stuff like 'it's the weekend lag effect', 'there are massive cock-ups in the labs', 'the govt are massaging the figures', etc. Some right know it alls.
I thought the weekend lag effect mainly affects the death count as I have actually known higher case counts on Sundays and Mondays compared to the days before. Also there have been sizable declines in confirmed cases for 3 consecutive days since Saturday, which IMO is most certainly telling, though whether or not it's sustainable is another matter, of course.
It's as if there are certain individuals who seem to revel in denial of cases falling, let alone the blatant Covid deniers, especially those mobs who were protesting in central London on Saturday, who must be more than prepared to face the music if this virus comes up and smacks them hard in the face!
I know I am probably cruel in saying the latter, but I can't help thinking about the possibility of karma striking those Covidiots, who were obviously trying to act 'ard and no doubt in pursuit of their 15 minutes of fame!
Pamplemousse
28-09-20, 20:12
There may be an element of truth in what they say re: cases - but looking at previous Mondays and Tuesdays should tell you what's happening. Don't forget there have been issues with the numbers because of delays in getting tests and subsequent results in recent weeks.
At the moment I'm quite concerned that France seems to be losing control: 14,400 cases today. I suspect M. Castex is going to have to make some difficult decisions before long. However, where I live is Covid-free again and the major city nearby is at 21 cases per 100k.
There may be an element of truth in what they say re: cases - but looking at previous Mondays and Tuesdays should tell you what's happening. Don't forget there have been issues with the numbers because of delays in getting tests and subsequent results in recent weeks.
At the moment I'm quite concerned that France seems to be losing control: 14,400 cases today. I suspect M. Castex is going to have to make some difficult decisions before long. However, where I live is Covid-free again and the major city nearby is at 21 cases per 100k.
Pleased to know your area is Covid free again PM.
Looking at the news today it does appear there have been issues with labs in Scotland (806 cases today there vs 222 yesterday), though not sure if the same is also happening in England, Wales and NI, we'll just have to wait and see later on this afternoon.
As far as daily cases are concerned, I still don't really buy into the much-touted weekend lag effect, because on some occasions I have known cases to be higher on a Sunday than the previous day (Saturday) and also higher on a Monday than the previous day (Sunday).
It's also been speculated that today's case stats (especially in Scotland) might also account for previously unrecorded cases last week, which has allegedly been known to happen UK-wide before where previously unrecorded cases from days, weeks or even months earlier, have been added to the daily case count, which can artificially inflate day-to-day figures.
It does seem that the way daily cases are compiled on the Covid Dashboard site has become a bit of a joke of late.
Probably already was a joke before, but at least they have finally come clean and prefaced the home page with the disclaimer notice alerting us to the likelihood of vast increases in daily confirmed cases over the coming days due to both technical issues and backlogs in counting since 24th September, rather than massive increases in actual infections.
Although I've been trying not to get too bogged down with the daily Covid stats over the past week or so, I have noticed that over the same period the daily cases have barely skyrocketed (last Tuesday was the highest with 19k odd cases) but seem to have remained mostly stable, though yo-yoing every other day on average. At the same time the news headlines have continued their gloomy narrative with Wales now set for a fortnight of national lockdown.
I wonder how long it will be before both Boris and Nicky are forced to bite the bullet and do the same in England and Scotland, respectively?
It does seem like all the restrictions introduced over recent weeks aren't working so far.
Personally, I wouldn't have any issue with a 2-week lockdown over Christmas,
which would probably make us reflect on the true meaning of the festive season which had sadly been lost over the years.
Meanwhile, there still barely seems to be any news on the progress of the Covid vaccines.
Meanwhile, there still barely seems to be any news on the progress of the Covid vaccines.
Pfizer have started mass producing their vaccine which indicates that trial results are going well. Same goes for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. They have to gather the data and asses it, no easy task in trails that include tens of thousands of people. There also must be enough positive cases within those groups to have reference point.
The earliest we’re going to see any type of vaccine is December this year. As for people under the age of 60 with no long term health issues, we’re about two to three years away from being inoculated. Those most at risk will get it first, then essential workers with age or health risks. Part of me thinks that the majority of the population won’t even be offered it once the most at risk are inoculated, as the sting from the pandemic is gone at that point.
The percentages of deaths and hospitalisations of younger fitter people are so low that it may render inoculation of those groups utterly pointless and basically a waste of resources.
Pfizer have started mass producing their vaccine which indicates that trial results are going well. Same goes for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. They have to gather the data and asses it, no easy task in trails that include tens of thousands of people. There also must be enough positive cases within those groups to have reference point.
The earliest we’re going to see any type of vaccine is December this year. As for people under the age of 60 with no long term health issues, we’re about two to three years away from being inoculated. Those most at risk will get it first, then essential workers with age or health risks. Part of me thinks that the majority of the population won’t even be offered it once the most at risk are inoculated, as the sting from the pandemic is gone at that point.
The percentages of deaths and hospitalisations of younger fitter people are so low that it may render inoculation of those groups utterly pointless and basically a waste of resources.
I do see your point there.
Perhaps hopefully once the first groups have been vaccinated the R-rate will probably start to drop, which will be a start.
I do see your point there.
Perhaps hopefully once the first groups have been vaccinated the R-rate will probably start to drop, which will be a start.
The aim is to get hospitalisations and deaths to as low a level as possible. If you can prevent, or greatly reduce the risk of those with higher risk factors being infected, then you‘ve pretty much blown the virus out of the water.
If the R is above one but that rate is only in those with little to no risk factors then all of a sudden the R loses significance. High infection rates amongst young fit people aren’t going to overwhelm healthcare systems, it’s not going to take a high amount of lives.
I think those of us who don’t suffer with adverse health or who are below a certain age need to be prepared to step aside for those who need it more. We need that vaccine but we need it to protect those most at risk. It’s going to be a few years before we can say that we’re all immune to this coronavirus.
MyNameIsTerry
20-10-20, 06:07
Pfizer. The company that tried to screw the NHS in recent times over prices by blocking out non branded.
Better watch them over this. In the US the issue exists that drug companies greatly overcharge for critical meds.
It does sadly seem like we've lost control of the virus here in the UK, we're now above 20k cases today, but hardly surprising though.
Though we're not quite at 50k per day at this stage as originally predicted a few weeks back, I do predict that what's about to happen in Wales might well also be on the horizon in England and Scotland in due course.
In some ways I now kind of wish Boris would just bite the bullet and lock England down as well for a fortnight at the same time as Wales.
glassgirlw
21-10-20, 03:14
This was the news this morning where I live. Daily media update given by a group of hospital docs, and health Dept officials....they’re usually pretty trustworthy and the only news I watch related to Covid.
Pfizer has announced that it will have a vaccine available sometime in mid-November.
Distribution will be rolled out in phases – with the first two being fairly close together – vaccinating hospital workers and those in vulnerable populations, such as long-term care facilities.
There will be a very limited amount of vaccine available immediately, but then production and distribution is expected to ramp up with it being fully available in the marketplace after mid-2021.
Pfizer has secured service agreements with Walgreens and CVS to vaccinate residents of senior care facilities.
It’s likely that many vaccines will be introduced around the same time. How do people decide which one to choose or whether or not to be vaccinated? Doctors recommend you follow the science. Following FDA approval, there will be extensive product reviews by an advisory council. Those reviews will also be important to follow.
And as vaccines are released, there will be changes as new discoveries are made. It could become very confusing.
There's definitely been something rather odd about the numbers the past 2-3 days.
Tuesday the daily case count went up to 21k odd, yesterday (Wednesday) went up even further to 26k odd, and today (Thursday) back down again to 21k odd.
I wonder if there's still been issues with undercounting, then followed by overcounting of daily cases as a consequence, like at the end of September and the very beginning of this month (October)?
I think that SAGE and the three horsemen of the apocalypse (Whitty, Handcock and Valance) are just using whatever data is available to justify their ridiculous agenda ... poor old Boris is forced to spout this nonsense and you can clearly see he's not convinced, together with a lot of the population how are questioning this whole sorry saga. If the government did a u-turn now and admitted that the have got it all wrong and let's try another approach they would get a hell of a lot of stick for whatever ensues.
So many stats flying about and it is impossible to make sense of any any of them ... the govt could tell us that on the basis of their statistics green is now orange with red spots and we would have no way of proving it isn't.
I agree in part with Gary, in that it appears the R-number is being driven by mostly younger, lower-risk generations, hence the NHS is not being overwhelmed. Herd immunity (oooh that dirty word) could be eased in if the government would just engage in some joined-up thinking, stop the panic and doom mongering, and make an effort to protect the more vulnerable in the population and treat the rest of us like adults who can exercise some common sense and evaluate the risk for ourselves. We might then see a better way out of this mess they have created. Can't keep locking everyone up until they find a vaccine .... which by the time they do will most likely not be of any use to the majority of the population who will have already reached a level of HI.
I think that SAGE and the three horsemen of the apocalypse (Whitty, Handcock and Valance) are just using whatever data is available to justify their ridiculous agenda ... poor old Boris is forced to spout this nonsense and you can clearly see he's not convinced, together with a lot of the population how are questioning this whole sorry saga. If the government did a u-turn now and admitted that the have got it all wrong and let's try another approach they would get a hell of a lot of stick for whatever ensues.
So many stats flying about and it is impossible to make sense of any any of them ... the govt could tell us that on the basis of their statistics green is now orange with red spots and we would have no way of proving it isn't.
I agree in part with Gary, in that it appears the R-number is being driven by mostly younger, lower-risk generations, hence the NHS is not being overwhelmed. Herd immunity (oooh that dirty word) could be eased in if the government would just engage in some joined-up thinking, stop the panic and doom mongering, and make an effort to protect the more vulnerable in the population and treat the rest of us like adults who can exercise some common sense and evaluate the risk for ourselves. We might then see a better way out of this mess they have created. Can't keep locking everyone up until they find a vaccine .... which by the time they do will most likely not be of any use to the majority of the population who will have already reached a level of HI.
I think I agree with many of your views there Dorabella.
It does seem that the govt are now mostly the ones getting hysterical about this so-called 'second' bout and much of the general public now blasé about the whole situation, seemingly the opposite to earlier in the year when it was much of the general public who were quaking in their boots at the Covid situation and the govt initially seeming uninterested with their heads in the sand.
Surely the govt, as much of a joke as I and many others think they are, will still get it in the neck whatever they say or do (or not). Keir and Co would no doubt be copping it just the same as Boris and Co right now had they been in power, and very likely the same for the Lib Dems, Green Party, UKIP, BNP, you name them!
I mentioned in the other thread earlier today about yesterday's BBC News reports of the UK's overall R-rate declining slightly over the previous week, and while some will no doubt pipe up with something like 'well it just ain't good enough', or 'it's too little too late', well that may well be so but even just a small downward trend for me is still far better than no downward trend, or in the worst-case scenario, the trend going from bad to even worse, which it seems like has been happening relentlessly over the past few weeks.
Though strangely, I'm no longer feel anywhere near as freaked out over it now like I did earlier in the year, in spite of the Covid situation getting worse again since the end of August.
YIKES! 33k cases today!
Why the sudden increase?
No explanation from anyone or anywhere thus far.
Even the BBC haven't yet elaborated on the possible reasons for this sudden jump.
What the hell has been going on?
More 'lost' cases from several days/weeks ago suddenly showed up?
The mass testing pilot programme in Liverpool?
More actual people suddenly becoming infected over the past 24 hours?
Especially when we're the first week into this second 'so-called' lockdown!
Probably Guy Fawkes day/Halloween/Dia de los Muertos/Samhein. Our cases have seen huge spikes this week because people got together over Halloween/Dia de Los Muertos. Unfortunately, people don't follow the rules on holidays, and with Diwali, Thanksgiving (here) and Chanukah and Christmas coming up, I think it's only going to get worse.
WiredIncorrectly
12-11-20, 21:22
Probably Guy Fawkes day/Halloween/Dia de los Muertos/Samhein. Our cases have seen huge spikes this week because people got together over Halloween/Dia de Los Muertos. Unfortunately, people don't follow the rules on holidays, and with Diwali, Thanksgiving (here) and Chanukah and Christmas coming up, I think it's only going to get worse.
I think it needs a couple more weeks to see any changes. At the moment it's constantly rising, but the lockdown is 1 week in. People will be showing symptoms round about now if they caught it pre-lockdown.
It's kind of like how I posted this thread and at first death rates were low (they're still very low compared to the infection numbers so that's a huge positive). My lawyer brother said "That will increase give it 2-3 weeks". He was right. It might be the same case here. Too early to begin to see any changes.
See, I am a source of positive information too :p I'm not always a pessimist.
People still have good levels of vitamin D from the summer sunshine; but not enough to stop them being ill, but enough to stop them dying from Covid-19. However, as there vitamin D levels drop off, death rates will start to rise again. I’ve been telling people to take vitamin D since last March, as vitamin D is the crucial ingredient for our immune systems to work. It’s not really a vitamin but a hormone, a hormone that regulates the immune system, telling ‘T’ cells to kill the virus and telling ‘B’ cells to make antibodies. It also regulates inflammation in the lungs, which is killing people. It’s that important, that the UK government is going to deliver two months supply to millions of vulnerable people in Britain in the next few weeks! I took 100ug (4000 IU’s) for a few month, got a vitamin D blood test from my doctor and it was 40ng/ml (100 nmol/l), which is where you want it. Does it work? Well I’m 72 with lot’s of underlying illnesses and my wife is 56. She got the virus and was ill for a week but I must have caught the virus but had no symptoms, but to verify I did actually get the virus, I was lucky to be picked for a random antibody test by the NHS, and it was positive. I did get the virus but my immune system – thanks to good vitamin D levels – killed it before it could hurt me, or possibly kill me.
Vitamin D certainly helps, but it's not as simple as take vitamin D and you won't get Covid. I'm not saying not to encourage people to take vitamin D, please do encourage them. But for those who don't spend their time educating themselves about this situation, I don't want to over-simplify it. There is so much misinformation out there already.
MyNameIsTerry
13-11-20, 00:54
YIKES! 33k cases today!
Why the sudden increase?
No explanation from anyone or anywhere thus far.
Even the BBC haven't yet elaborated on the possible reasons for this sudden jump.
What the hell has been going on?
More 'lost' cases from several days/weeks ago suddenly showed up?
The mass testing pilot programme in Liverpool?
More actual people suddenly becoming infected over the past 24 hours?
Especially when we're the first week into this second 'so-called' lockdown!
A paramedic just told me about this number and said they haven't been told yet. He did say it was going up like mad.
MyNameIsTerry
13-11-20, 01:00
Vitamin D certainly helps, but it's not as simple as take vitamin D and you won't get Covid. I'm not saying not to encourage people to take vitamin D, please do encourage them. But for those who don't spend their time educating themselves about this situation, I don't want to over-simplify it. There is so much misinformation out there already.
I would also advise caution. I can't remember the dosage without checking but D3 above a certain mg meds a balancing dose of vitamin k otherwise it causes calcified deposits in your bloodstream. And when I last looked into this there were D3 supplements on places like EBay that were above this.
MyNameIsTerry
13-11-20, 01:03
People still have good levels of vitamin D from the summer sunshine; but not enough to stop them being ill, but enough to stop them dying from Covid-19. However, as there vitamin D levels drop off, death rates will start to rise again. I’ve been telling people to take vitamin D since last March, as vitamin D is the crucial ingredient for our immune systems to work. It’s not really a vitamin but a hormone, a hormone that regulates the immune system, telling ‘T’ cells to kill the virus and telling ‘B’ cells to make antibodies. It also regulates inflammation in the lungs, which is killing people. It’s that important, that the UK government is going to deliver two months supply to millions of vulnerable people in Britain in the next few weeks! I took 100ug (4000 IU’s) for a few month, got a vitamin D blood test from my doctor and it was 40ng/ml (100 nmol/l), which is where you want it. Does it work? Well I’m 72 with lot’s of underlying illnesses and my wife is 56. She got the virus and was ill for a week but I must have caught the virus but had no symptoms, but to verify I did actually get the virus, I was lucky to be picked for a random antibody test by the NHS, and it was positive. I did get the virus but my immune system – thanks to good vitamin D levels – killed it before it could hurt me, or possibly kill me.
Just wanted to add to say that's great news about you and your wife.
A paramedic just told me about this number and said they haven't been told yet. He did say it was going up like mad.
It's more that cases had seemingly levelled off for over a fortnight and all of a sudden they've skyrocketed.
Even more baffling is that it's seemingly over a single 24-hour period and the govt last night denied that there were any backlogs in counting and also insisted that the mass testing programme in Liverpool won't be showing up in the daily stats just yet.
I think we're also being misled about this second lockdown in England, where the term 'lockdown' is being used as a misnomer, as this is worlds apart from the first lockdown in the spring. If things deteriorate even further from today onwards perhaps (dare I say it) the govt should go the whole hog and repeat the very same restrictions from late March-May.
But sadly that would only wreck the economy all the more!
Perhaps yesterday could have been just a one-off blip and we might end up being back down to 20k-odd cases again (and hopefully lower) in due course.
Also the first vaccines will soon start gradually being rolled out over the coming weeks, which is a ray of hope.
Mind you, I seem to recall that daily cases still continued to increase for the first 2-3 weeks of the first lockdown, so obviously correlates with a couple of weeks' time lag between the initial onset of people just becoming infected (pre-lockdown) and officially testing positive a couple of weeks later. It wasn't until at least mid-way through April that overall daily cases in the UK really started to decline, so we probably won't be seeing any early results until probably at least the end of next week.
Also, first time round, community testing didn't really start properly until towards the end of May, which was probably one of the reasons why cases didn't start to come down as quickly back then, plus that was probably the main reason why there were a lot of undercounted cases at that time.
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