View Full Version : I think there still might a bright side.
WiredIncorrectly
13-09-20, 18:43
Thus far shy of 1 million people have died from COVID globally. But, how accurate are these numbers? How many deaths are not a result of COVID. How many are false positives. etc.
Can we assume the number to be lower because at the start there wasn't any accurate testing. Death rates still seem relatively low even though we're seeing a rise in infections. Which is good news non the less!
With the above said, if we compare the flu "The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide."
If we discount deaths on the assumption that errors were made then COVID still isn't that much worse than the flu right? There's no immunity to flu either and we still live with it.
We may see a decrease in deaths during this spate of infections and if that remains than we could be dealing with something that is no more of an inconvenience than a flu for the majority of us?
Well I agree ... and it certainly concurs with what a lot of scientists have been saying for months .... pity the government and SAGE are not listening to them. A lot of these 'positive' cases may well be false i.e. picking up inactive virus particles from previous un recorded infections. Lot of T-cell immunity out there also which these PCR tests don't pick up which might explain why a lot of asymptomatics don't have symptoms or get sick. CV is just doing what all viruses do and working its way across the population until it gets weaker and less virulent. Such a shame that all governments over-reacted and are even now doing a Canute to try to stop it spreading - making it up as they go along I reckon.
Thus far shy of 1 million people have died from COVID globally. But, how accurate are these numbers? How many deaths are not a result of COVID. How many are false positives. etc.
Can we assume the number to be lower because at the start there wasn't any accurate testing. Death rates still seem relatively low even though we're seeing a rise in infections. Which is good news non the less!
With the above said, if we compare the flu "The World Health Organization estimates that 290,000 to 650,000 people die of flu-related causes every year worldwide."
If we discount deaths on the assumption that errors were made then COVID still isn't that much worse than the flu right? There's no immunity to flu either and we still live with it.
We may see a decrease in deaths during this spate of infections and if that remains than we could be dealing with something that is no more of an inconvenience than a flu for the majority of us?
The major difference between influenza and Covid-19 is that we know exactly what influenza does, we know which seasons it will hit hardest and we do have vaccination programmes and medical therapies that offer at least some protection and a degree of treatment.
Covid-19 is less than a year old, and while our understanding of it is improving daily, it’s still a very short period of time in which to fully understand the implications of it.
There is no vaccine and treatments are slowly showing signs of working in some cases, but we’re still a long way off understanding this virus as well as we do with seasonal influenza.
It is still too early to get an entirely accurate mortality rate, but, from what I’m reading, most epidemiologists and virologists are putting it around the 1-2% mark. Again, a low mortality rate, but the problem with Covid-19 is that it is very highly contagious and very easy to transmit. There is also no seasonality to it. Influenza hits harder in colder months, this virus doesn’t care what the weathers like, it burns and burns, therefore potentially putting healthcare systems under constant strain, rather than a seasonal uptick seen with influenza.
However, the data is now very clear that the vast vast majority of us will suffer mild illness. It’s obvious that the older and more infirm you are, or the more underlying conditions you have, the higher the risk. That doesn’t make it any less of an issue, obviously, but we do at least know who we should be prioritising as far as protecting them from this virus.
ankietyjoe
14-09-20, 14:07
Yes, the biggest 'positive' about normal flu is that it's relatively predictable, with well established routines and some built in immunity and vaccine protection.
It's the fact that Covid is new that causes the danger. We as a population are unprepared both physically and logistically, which means that that an entire season of normal flu patients could hit the hospitals in a week or two, theoretically.
One thing that has been illustrated though is the health of the Western populations as a whole seems to be a bit of an illusion. We're all a bit sicker than we think we are.
WiredIncorrectly
14-09-20, 15:58
Maybe I'm far too optimistic :roflmao: ... yesterday was anxiety hell, I had to justify a positive.
Maybe I'm far too optimistic :roflmao: ... yesterday was anxiety hell, I had to justify a positive.
I don’t think you’re necessarily wrong, it’s just that we need to gain a better understanding of this virus before we can truly make comparisons with other pathogens.
It’s good to try and think optimistically, so don’t stop doing that.
One thing that has been illustrated though is the health of the Western populations as a whole seems to be a bit of an illusion. We're all a bit sicker than we think we are.I think you're bang on the money here Joe. And the issue of obesity only seemed to become a factor once the pandemic reached western shores.
I was talking to one of the staff at our local Asda who happens to be an old friend of Mrs F. I asked again whether any staff members had been off work this year with illness and she said no. So I repeated my question and asked more specifically off ill with covid and she still said no. My daughter has been supervisor in our Spar since last December and no staff have been off there either. I find that astonishing considering how transmissible covid is. And these are people with very frequent contact with the public. On a busy day my daughter says they can get up to 600 customers.
WiredIncorrectly
14-09-20, 20:57
I think you're bang on the money here Joe. And the issue of obesity only seemed to become a factor once the pandemic reached western shores.
I was talking to one of the staff at our local Asda who happens to be an old friend of Mrs F. I asked again whether any staff members had been off work this year with illness and she said no. So I repeated my question and asked more specifically off ill with covid and she still said no. My daughter has been supervisor in our Spar since last December and no staff have been off there either. I find that astonishing considering how transmissible covid is. And these are people with very frequent contact with the public. On a busy day my daughter says they can get up to 600 customers.
My mother is a manager at Sainsbury's and she said the same. She's always in contact with people and hasn't caught anything.
Picking up from what you have all said, nearly every I have spoken to I know doesn't know anyone who has (knowingly) had CV ... who are all these positive cases? From what I have read (and not from the BBC channels I might add), scientifically it is estimated that as many of 70% of the population are just not susceptible to these viruses or have a natural immunity (strong T-cell response) and this would certainly explain why a lot of people who work in public-facing jobs don't all come down with it.
Totally agree with you all, husband & me have worked all the way through (apart from 2 weeks at start) we deliver new trucks to customers & meet people of all ages, size & nationality & not one of them has had or knows anyone who has had the virus.
MyNameIsTerry
15-09-20, 06:11
My brother works in a food distribution centre in Yorkshire. No cases.
His GF is a prison officer in a Cat A up there and several POs have had it. She said the prisoners were worried, poor little flowers...
My brother works in a food distribution centre in Yorkshire. No cases.
His GF is a prison officer in a Cat A up there and several POs have had it. She said the prisoners were worried, poor little flowers...
I'm sure they will be offered counselling and "time to talk" sessions..Can't have the poor lambs being stressed, can we?
My son is working again at a local Co op. No cases there either.
WiredIncorrectly
15-09-20, 13:20
My brother works in a food distribution centre in Yorkshire. No cases.
His GF is a prison officer in a Cat A up there and several POs have had it. She said the prisoners were worried, poor little flowers...
Remember there are innocent people in there on remand and/or sentenced :p Actually, unless she works at Belmarsh they'd all be sentenced (Belmarsh is also a local remand jail). And category A crimes are not something you mistakenly go to prison for. It happens, but rare.
MyNameIsTerry
17-09-20, 05:18
I'm sure they will be offered counselling and "time to talk" sessions..Can't have the poor lambs being stressed, can we?
My son is working again at a local Co op. No cases there either.
Oh yes, whilst the rest of us sit in the never moving mental health queue :winks:
Great to hear your son is working. That's such a massive step forward after the hell you've all been through. You must be very pleased.
MyNameIsTerry
17-09-20, 05:19
Remember there are innocent people in there on remand and/or sentenced :p Actually, unless she works at Belmarsh they'd all be sentenced (Belmarsh is also a local remand jail). And category A crimes are not something you mistakenly go to prison for. It happens, but rare.
Now wait a minute, I thought they were all innocent? :winks:
MyNameIsTerry
17-09-20, 05:22
So, on the subject of retail workers today I was shopping in Tesco where all the floor staff are wearing masks! This is a first. They didn't do it at the worst of lockdown other than some conscientious workers. I nearly fell out of my trolley seat! :biggrin:
I recall in the lead up to masks there were studies showing retail workers having higher infection rates. But most didn't protect themselves with masks in places I go...:whistles:
Oh yes, whilst the rest of us sit in the never moving mental health queue :winks:
Great to hear your son is working. That's such a massive step forward after the hell you've all been through. You must be very pleased.
Thanks, Terry..It's early days but he has support from the Richmond Fellowship this time and is on stacks of meds but he's coping..
WiredIncorrectly
17-09-20, 13:14
I'm sure they will be offered counselling and "time to talk" sessions..Can't have the poor lambs being stressed, can we?
My son is working again at a local Co op. No cases there either.
The same son you spoke about before? That's great news either way pulisa. I bet it gives you a bit of relaxing time?
I recall in the lead up to masks there were studies showing retail workers having higher infection rates. But most didn't protect themselves with masks in places I go...:whistles:Having spoken to a worker in our local co-op this morning, no cases there. So that's our local Asda, co-op and Spar with not a single case of covid between them, symptomatic covid of course.
WiredIncorrectly
18-09-20, 15:50
Now wait a minute, I thought they were all innocent? :winks:
This is true. Ask anybody on the inside if they're guilty and most will say no.
Hey, unless we're dead, there's always a bright side!
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