View Full Version : 19th July Reopening
Squishchips
01-07-21, 13:52
Hello :)
Not posted on here for a while - I needed a break from all things covid for a bit! Hope everyone is doing well and keeping safe.
I was just wondering if anyone else was as worried about 19th July as I am?
I've just been reading and it looks like most restrictions are being lifted even mandatory mask wearing.
I'm definitely not ready to go back to life as it was before (whatever the hell that looked like!) and it really worries me with how much the new variant breaks through vaccines. The thought of going into the office with a load of unvaccinated people is enough to make me want to become a complete hermit (only half joking I think lol)
Definitely feel like I've taken a few steps back recently in terms of fear of this virus - but not sure if I'm being overly cautious - be interested to know what other people are feeling at the moment?
Pamplemousse
01-07-21, 14:06
https://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showthread.php?237887-Covid-19-discussion-thread&p=2010667#post2010667
Hello :)
Not posted on here for a while - I needed a break from all things covid for a bit! Hope everyone is doing well and keeping safe.
I was just wondering if anyone else was as worried about 19th July as I am?
I've just been reading and it looks like most restrictions are being lifted even mandatory mask wearing.
I'm definitely not ready to go back to life as it was before (whatever the hell that looked like!) and it really worries me with how much the new variant breaks through vaccines. The thought of going into the office with a load of unvaccinated people is enough to make me want to become a complete hermit (only half joking I think lol)
Definitely feel like I've taken a few steps back recently in terms of fear of this virus - but not sure if I'm being overly cautious - be interested to know what other people are feeling at the moment?
I really don't know what to make of the final easements currently proposed for 19th July, though there must be some scientific explanation for it to be (provisionally) given the go-ahead.
Surely Whitty, Vallance, Ferguson, Harries, et el, would have been sticking their heels in by now if the situation was currently in serious doubt.
But I haven't heard or read anything from any reputable news outlets about the jabs being full-on ineffective against the Delta variant, in fact so far it's the opposite that's been (mostly) reported.
Hello Squishchips and good to hear from you!
I think there will be a promise of foreign travel if fully vaccinated as a pay off for keeping social distancing and face masks for the foreseeable.
I'm sure Boris wants a legit fancy holiday!
I think it will be hard for a lot of us to just overnight go back to life pre-Covid. I'll be keeping my mask on in shops and social distancing as long as the case numbers are really high which they are at the moment even with vaccines. I don't think that this would be OTT because I can't afford to get ill through carelessness.
Pamplemousse
01-07-21, 21:35
I'll be keeping my mask on in shops and social distancing as long as the case numbers are really high which they are at the moment even with vaccines. I don't think that this would be OTT because I can't afford to get ill through carelessness.
Same here. I don't have sickness protection insurance so ill = no money.
Hello Squishchips and good to hear from you!
I think there will be a promise of foreign travel if fully vaccinated as a pay off for keeping social distancing and face masks for the foreseeable.
I'm sure Boris wants a legit fancy holiday!
I think it will be hard for a lot of us to just overnight go back to life pre-Covid. I'll be keeping my mask on in shops and social distancing as long as the case numbers are really high which they are at the moment even with vaccines. I don't think that this would be OTT because I can't afford to get ill through carelessness.
I shall also continue to mask up whilst in shops, travelling on public transport, etc, beyond 19th July until further notice but will probably bite the bullet and ditch mask wearing at my day centre, where I feel safest in the knowledge that virtually everyone there (staff and clients) have been double jabbed, plus everything is still scrupulously managed within the place in terms of general hygiene and cleanliness, plus not forgetting weekly testing for Covid, which may still remain beyond 19th July.
They are already in the process of gradually phasing out the group bubbles (authorised by Staffs CC) that they have operated with since the place reopened last July following the first national lockdown.
Here in the States, there's been no official 'reopening' of things. Most businesses have posted on their doors that not wearing a mask is fine as long as you've been vaxxed. There are some businesses (like Walmart) that the wife and I will still wear masks but there are several we feel comfortable not wearing them. It will take time. We've all dealt with this in our own way and will continue to do so.
We're coming to the tail end of this and while there will still be situations that arise, we've gotten to a point of being able to turn the page. It still comes down to common sense. Get vaxxed, social distance and wear a mask when applicable for you.
FMP
I suppose if we didn’t have the delta variant that we’d be doing that too FMP. It seems so strange that we are in our 3rd wave and with high infection rates but life is about to open up. It’s been constant up and downs for 18 months and I personally find it a bit tricky at the moment.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It's all very unsettling isn't it, Scass? Probably the understatement of the year!!
I think the delta variant is the spanner in the works here as you say. We can't turn the page in the UK yet realistically although many people reached the end of the chapter a while back hence our 3rd wave.
I think if we were where we were at case rate wise last July, we'd be pretty much over the pandemic. But as cases are still rising thanks to Delta, it just doesn't seem to make sense to lift all restrictions. I do see that looking at the case numbers is important, but if they don't want to undermine everything we sacrificed with lockdowns last year, they need to explain things a bit better. I feel a hesitancy in them saying 'case rates are going up but it's fine because x,y,z' incase people get complacent and don't get jabbed. (I'm having my own issues with that if anyone has read my thread but that's a different story!) Maybe in a couple of weeks time they'll tell us why opening up is ok despite rising numbers.
In Wales we're being a bit more hesitant despite hospital admissions largely staying the same, and no deaths for a couple of weeks now. About 75% of cases are in under 25's though and seem to be worse in areas that haven't been hit hard before so don't have a lot of natural immunity around.
Speaking of natural immunity there seems to be a lot of hesitancy around telling us how well that fares. I know the European immunity certificate counts a previous infection or a vaccination as immunity, but there's no mention of that here, only vaccines. I suppose if they said that though everyone who 'thought' they'd had it wouldn't go for a jab either. Any research I find seems to be 'if you've had it before it's rare to catch it again but it can happen', which is pretty much the same as being vaccinated?
Anyway, I'm rambling now 🤣
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 10:11
On the subject of masks: the ones we commonly wear at the moment are really meant to protect those around the wearer, not the wearer themselves.
There was a recent report that said that "P3" masks can offer very high levels of protection to the wearer (I think it was in a hospital setting) Trouble is, the disposable ones are around £5 each and unsurprisingly, are quite difficult to breathe through because of their very high filtration rate. They're also unsuitable if you have a beard as they won't seal around the face properly.
I may still get some despite the cost. I'm not getting sick because Tories want me dead for the sake of the economy.
On the subject of masks: the ones we commonly wear at the moment are really meant to protect those around the wearer, not the wearer themselves.
There was a recent report that said that "P3" masks can offer very high levels of protection to the wearer (I think it was in a hospital setting) Trouble is, the disposable ones are around £5 each and unsurprisingly, are quite difficult to breathe through because of their very high filtration rate. They're also unsuitable if you have a beard as they won't seal around the face properly.
I may still get some despite the cost. I'm not getting sick because Tories want me dead for the sake of the economy.
Nothing is absolutely set in stone as yet PM, and the 19th July 'Freedom Day' is still more 'provisional' than 'absolute'.
The govt could still change their minds if the worst-case scenarios (heaven forbid) came to pass.
I reckon that the govt are also sh1t scared of the possibility of mass civil unrest occurring if restrictions aren't lifted on that date, let alone the odd chances of further restrictions being reinstated.
After all, they (the current Tory govt) are responsible for cutting services such as the police to the bone over the past decade, so they can basically 'own' the likely repercussions of such failings!
They never seemed to learn from the riotous events of August 2011, nor the terrorist attacks of 2017 in London and Manchester.
To be honest, for me workwise, I think we'll still be wearing masks for patient contact for the foreseeable future. I would be very surprised if they said we didn't have to.
To be honest, for me workwise, I think we'll still be wearing masks for patient contact for the foreseeable future. I would be very surprised if they said we didn't have to.
Probably the wisest thing to do in the meantime.
It also proves your professionalism.
I'm not getting sick because Tories want me dead for the sake of the economy.
You’ve been fully vaccinated, therefore reducing your risk of serious illness by around 90%. At a certain point, perhaps you should consider that it’s you who is being completely illogical and, frankly, over the top hysterical about your risk. Statements like the above are just not consistent with what’s happening right now, you should probably try harder to stop thinking like this or you’ll never get any quality of life back.
In the words of Jack Nicholson himself, what if this is as good as it gets?
I suppose if we didn’t have the delta variant that we’d be doing that too FMP. It seems so strange that we are in our 3rd wave and with high infection rates but life is about to open up. It’s been constant up and downs for 18 months and I personally find it a bit tricky at the moment.
The Delta variant is the prominent variant here too and it's hitting some places hard. Sadly, its still the political divide along with skewed thinking that is dictating the spread. There are pockets of high infection rates and hospitalizations in many of the rural and southern states that are considered 'red'. Coincidently, these states have the lowest vaccination rates.... go figure :doh:
FMP
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 13:36
You’ve been fully vaccinated, therefore reducing your risk of serious illness by around 90%.
If it has worked. I give you Andrew Marr. You yourself have admitted as much.
At a certain point, perhaps you should consider that it’s you who is being completely illogical and, frankly, over the top hysterical about your risk. Statements like the above are just not consistent with what’s happening right now, you should probably try harder to stop thinking like this or you’ll never get any quality of life back.
With due respect mate, you've not had the last fifteen years that I have.
I don't trust any politician to have my interests at heart - and especially not a former merchant banker who subscribes to the ideology of Ayn Rand. To those people, we're just "useless eaters".
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 13:38
Nothing is absolutely set in stone as yet PM, and the 19th July 'Freedom Day' is still more 'provisional' than 'absolute'.
I think you'll find it is set in stone - they've now decided that it's time to let the virus circulate and hope that vaccines work.
I thought it was now called "Terminus" Day? Or Cul de Sac Day which you may prefer, PM?:winks:
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 13:55
I thought it was now called "Terminus" Day? Or Cul de Sac Day which you may prefer, PM?:winks:
"Plain Bloody Foolish Day" will do for me, P.
Well, we'll see who's right by the end of August, won't we?
I'm sure that the Olympics will be a controversial issue in the coming weeks.
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 14:15
Considering the vast majority of Tokyo residents don't want them! The Olympics is a touring circus with an enormous environmental impact that has outlived its use, rather like the World Cup and Formula 1.
If it has worked. I give you Andrew Marr. You yourself have admitted as much.
Andrew Marr is fine. He had a rough few days but he certainly wasn’t on a hospital ward with a machine helping him breathe. You want an if? What if he wasn’t fully vaccinated? If you’re going to bring “what ifs” into it why not try to do it in a way that doesn’t keep you down?
With due respect mate, you've not had the last fifteen years that I have.
I never said I had, but from one human being to another I just think you’re far too ready to look toward the negative.
I don't trust any politician to have my interests at heart - and especially not a former merchant banker who subscribes to the ideology of Ayn Rand. To those people, we're just "useless eaters".
Well then don’t listen to politicians speaking on this matter. Listen to the science, the doctors and the people who do have your interests at heart. The science is telling us that despite surging new cases, the vaccines are providing very high levels of protection from severe illness.
Just look at the data compared to earlier waves. Surges like this would have seen us in full lockdown, yet we’re still going toward opening up. That’s because the rising infections are simply not syphoning into severe illness. Around 80% of new cases are in those aged under 40, which tells you that the vast majority of new infections are in those not yet fully vaccinated.
I can’t tell you that being fully vaccinated is going to make you immortal to this virus. What I can tell you is that if you do somehow manage to pick up Covid, your odds of surviving it have increased by around 90%. Personally, I can only hope that you’ll start to gain a bit more confidence due to that.
Andrew Marr is fine. He had a rough few days but he certainly wasn’t on a hospital ward with a machine helping him breathe. You want an if? What if he wasn’t fully vaccinated? If you’re going to bring “what ifs” into it why not try to do it in a way that doesn’t keep you down?
I never said I had, but from one human being to another I just think you’re far too ready to look toward the negative.
Well then don’t listen to politicians speaking on this matter. Listen to the science, the doctors and the people who do have your interests at heart. The science is telling us that despite surging new cases, the vaccines are providing very high levels of protection from severe illness.
Just look at the data compared to earlier waves. Surges like this would have seen us in full lockdown, yet we’re still going toward opening up. That’s because the rising infections are simply not syphoning into severe illness. Around 80% of new cases are in those aged under 40, which tells you that the vast majority of new infections are in those not yet fully vaccinated.
I can’t tell you that being fully vaccinated is going to make you immortal to this virus. What I can tell you is that if you do somehow manage to pick up Covid, your odds of surviving it have increased by around 90%. Personally, I can only hope that you’ll start to gain a bit more confidence due to that.
Wow Gary, you've beat me to exactly what I was going to tell PM!
I reckon Andrew Marr and the tiny minority of other double jabbed persons who have unfortunately still managed to slip through the net and caught Covid, were simply unlucky, though as you suggest, AM is finally on the mend now and wasn't hospitalised.
There is currently an article on the BBC website stating that whilst overall Covid infection rates in the UK have continued upwards over the past week, the vaccines are still saving lives.
There were also side-by-side graphs within said article showing the increases in cases throughout June vs the increases in cases throughout last October, both of which are broadly similar, plus the rates of Covid-related hospitalisations throughout June vs those throughout last October, and the Covid hospitalisation rates in June this year are well below those in October last year, with similar case numbers.
Also cases in the UK are down slightly today, albeit still just over 27k.
Wow Gary, you've beat me to exactly what I was going to tell PM!
I reckon Andrew Marr and the tiny minority of other double jabbed persons who have unfortunately still managed to slip through the net and caught Covid, were simply unlucky, though as you suggest, AM is finally on the mend now and wasn't hospitalised.
There is currently an article on the BBC website stating that whilst overall Covid infection rates in the UK have continued upwards over the past week, the vaccines are still saving lives.
There were also side-by-side graphs within said article showing the increases in cases throughout June vs the increases in cases throughout last October, both of which are broadly similar, plus the rates of Covid-related hospitalisations throughout June vs those throughout last October, and the Covid hospitalisation rates in June this year are well below those in October last year, with similar case numbers.
Also cases in the UK are down slightly today, albeit still just over 27k.
My only worry is that the government is going to dangle 'freedom' over us but with caveats - this seems to be the way it is all going. There is some suggestion that we are going to be stuck in this lockdown cycle for the next five winters. By the time we are let out again the winter virus season will be approaching .....
Abut time that they believed in their own words ' vaccine is the path to freedom' and we are just going to have to learn to live with the virus (and any other) which is now endemic. Gary is correct in some of his comments. Personally I just think enough is enough and time for all of this to cease to be the focus of everyday life.
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 18:28
Just look at the data compared to earlier waves. Surges like this would have seen us in full lockdown, yet we’re still going toward opening up. That’s because the rising infections are simply not syphoning into severe illness.
No, it's because the Tory scum in Government are more concerned about making money and protecting their future electoral hopes which they know will be dashed if there's another lockdown.
As ever, hospitalisations/deaths lag about four weeks behind cases; assuming schoolkids aren't cooking the books massively by pouring lemon juice or whatever TikTok tells them to use onto their free LFT kits to get time off school.
Let's see how many die per day in August, or are we now saying 700 - 1000 a week dead will be acceptable in return for going to the pub without a mask?
Squishchips
02-07-21, 18:59
Wow Gary, you've beat me to exactly what I was going to tell PM!
I reckon Andrew Marr and the tiny minority of other double jabbed persons who have unfortunately still managed to slip through the net and caught Covid, were simply unlucky, though as you suggest, AM is finally on the mend now and wasn't hospitalised.
There is currently an article on the BBC website stating that whilst overall Covid infection rates in the UK have continued upwards over the past week, the vaccines are still saving lives.
There were also side-by-side graphs within said article showing the increases in cases throughout June vs the increases in cases throughout last October, both of which are broadly similar, plus the rates of Covid-related hospitalisations throughout June vs those throughout last October, and the Covid hospitalisation rates in June this year are well below those in October last year, with similar case numbers.
Also cases in the UK are down slightly today, albeit still just over 27k.
My worry is that over the last few days I have seen quite a few people that are double jabbed testing positive - a friend of mine had both AZ jabs in May and is currently unwell - is coping fine enough at home but says she feels really awful.
This worries me as my husband is immune suppressed and although he's had covid, anxiety brain goes to worst case scenario
I know normality does have to resume though and it is needed for most people - just wish I could be more fearless about it all instead of worrying about every possible scenario - anxiety really is bloody annoying! ��
No, it's because the Tory scum in Government are more concerned about making money and protecting their future electoral hopes which they know will be dashed if there's another lockdown.
As ever, hospitalisations/deaths lag about four weeks behind cases; assuming schoolkids aren't cooking the books massively by pouring lemon juice or whatever TikTok tells them to use onto their free LFT kits to get time off school.
Let's see how many die per day in August, or are we now saying 700 - 1000 a week dead will be acceptable in return for going to the pub without a mask?
Who said it would be, PM? You’ve just plucked a number out of thin air there haven’t you? You’ve allowed your anxiety to combine with your political bias here, in my view anyway.
It wouldn’t matter who was in number 10 right now, the fact of the matter is that at some point we need to put the train back on the track. We can’t run and hide forever. However, if you feel that you’re still at a major risk, that your vaccine is a waste of time and that locking us all up until you personally feel safe is an option, I’d suggest you take whichever precautions you find necessary.
Some of believe in science and vaccination. I’m one of them. If cases start to show a huge surge in severe illness and ultimately deaths, then I’d be the first to say we need to put the brakes on. As it is that’s just not happening.
I'm not sure why we still need daily case numbers published if we need to get on with our lives though?
WiredIncorrectly
02-07-21, 19:49
I can say with certainty that the 19th of July will not be reopening. Javid is a complete dip****. First day in post and he promises we'll be out of lockdown on the 19th.
Hello? Is anybody in there? Knock. Knock. Anything between the eyes?
Politicians are funny, they think that telling the virus "we will reopen" means the virus will pack it's bags and head home.
Could be worse, this could be a war, and politicians saying "we will reopen" is them stamping their feet at the opposition :roflmao:
Squishchips
02-07-21, 19:50
I'm not sure why we still need daily case numbers published if we need to get on with our lives though?
I did wonder this as well though I do like the numbers being published (when they're low anyway lol). Local numbers I find more helpful but the Zoe app does give a good idea of that as well
I just don't see the point if actual numbers are irrelevant and the vaccines are doing their job effectively.
Who said it would be, PM? You’ve just plucked a number out of thin air there haven’t you? You’ve allowed your anxiety to combine with your political bias here, in my view anyway.
It wouldn’t matter who was in number 10 right now, the fact of the matter is that at some point we need to put the train back on the track. We can’t run and hide forever. However, if you feel that you’re still at a major risk, that your vaccine is a waste of time and that locking us all up until you personally feel safe is an option, I’d suggest you take whichever precautions you find necessary.
Some of believe in science and vaccination. I’m one of them. If cases start to show a huge surge in severe illness and ultimately deaths, then I’d be the first to say we need to put the brakes on. As it is that’s just not happening.
Dare I say it, I think Labour probably would have got it in the neck even more had they been in power during this pandemic, even if they did actually handle the situation far better.
They did (wrongly IMO) get the blame for the Global Financial Crisis back in the late 2000s after all, plus many people seem to revel in the endless conspiracy theories about Labour these days.
Let's face it, yesterday's by-election in Batley was hardly plain sailing for them, despite their (narrow) victory there, particularly with that gobsh1te George Galloway trying to do a Dollard by blatantly trying to deny his defeat!
MyNameIsTerry
02-07-21, 21:17
Look at the charts on the BBC covid page. The comparisons to a previous wave prove hospitalisations are low. The same levels of infection can be seen but hospitalisations no longer follow the upward trend. It's up but it's a very flat trend.
Since Delta has been with us for enough time to impact hospitals it's obvious it's not happening.
Yes, some double triple or 52x jabbed will die. Vaccination isn't 100%. And we don't know if these people are outside of expected tolerances for illness remembering many still die from flu despite jabs. Because some people can die from a cold.
Look at the charts on the BBC covid page. The comparisons to a previous wave prove hospitalisations are low. The same levels of infection can be seen but hospitalisations no longer follow the upward trend. It's up but it's a very flat trend.
Since Delta has been with us for enough time to impact hospitals it's obvious it's not happening.
Yes, some double triple or 52x jabbed will die. Vaccination isn't 100%. And we don't know if these people are outside of expected tolerances for illness remembering many still die from flu despite jabs. Because some people can die from a cold.
Absolutely Terry.
I also mentioned earlier today about the graphs on the BBC page.
And despite certain people whose names I shall not mention still not being convinced, you're correct in the sense that Delta has been with us for over 2 months now and in the last 3 weeks alone deaths and hospitalisations have hardly skyrocketed in line with cases following the typical 2-3-week lag.
And most certainly unlike last autumn so far.
Pamplemousse
02-07-21, 22:33
Who said it would be, PM? You’ve just plucked a number out of thin air there haven’t you? You’ve allowed your anxiety to combine with your political bias here, in my view anyway.
1st June: 6000 cases. Month later - 27 deaths.
2nd July: 27000 cases. Fourfold increase.
Shall we see if we hit a fourfold increase in deaths on the 1st August? And will you apologise for your remarks if I'm proven right?
1st June: 6000 cases. Month later - 27 deaths.
2nd July: 27000 cases. Fourfold increase.
Shall we see if we hit a fourfold increase in deaths on the 1st August? And will you apologise for your remarks if I'm proven right?
Apologise for what? You asked me if I thought that 700-1000 deaths per day were acceptable so people could “go for a pint without a mask”, and I said you’d plucked the number from thin air, which you had. I hadn’t said ANY number was acceptable, so what exactly would I apologise for.
Only one of us is trying to predict the future here, all I’m doing is going off of current evidence. I’m well aware it could change. Anyway, sorry for trying to stop you from being miserable.
MyNameIsTerry
03-07-21, 06:14
Absolutely Terry.
I also mentioned earlier today about the graphs on the BBC page.
And despite certain people whose names I shall not mention still not being convinced, you're correct in the sense that Delta has been with us for over 2 months now and in the last 3 weeks alone deaths and hospitalisations have hardly skyrocketed in line with cases following the typical 2-3-week lag.
And most certainly unlike last autumn so far.
That's true. And on that same BBC page scrolling to the bottom reveals it's the north west that is the main problem. Ever since it started their hospitals saw the increase whilst Scotland showed a slight increase and the rest of us were stable. More regions are now showing a shallow upward trend.
In previous waves hospitals were at breaking point. That's not happening now. 27k deaths prevented so far by vaccines. No doubt some north west hospitals may need some support because it's hit them slightly harder due to local factors such as poor vaccine uptake.
MyNameIsTerry
03-07-21, 06:38
I was talking to my dad about masks and social distancing. We are both agreed we shall carry on until we feel the time us right to relax this. For me that would be post Delta and double jabbed. If we go back to pre Delta things were looking really good with so few cases per week despite most things being open.
I'm not sure what my dad thinks about that but he will be playing it cautious due to mum being vulnerable.
Sadly I expect it will be a free for all. I've always thought a lot of people only wear masks because they are told too because their behaviour towards social distancing is indicative of how much they care.
That's true. And on that same BBC page scrolling to the bottom reveals it's the north west that is the main problem. Ever since it started their hospitals saw the increase whilst Scotland showed a slight increase and the rest of us were stable. More regions are now showing a shallow upward trend.
In previous waves hospitals were at breaking point. That's not happening now. 27k deaths prevented so far by vaccines. No doubt some north west hospitals may need some support because it's hit them slightly harder due to local factors such as poor vaccine uptake.
Pre-vaccines, this Delta variant-fuelled third wave would have meant an automatic full-on national lockdown.
Surely hospitalisations and deaths also would have been sky high by now.
But fortunately, thanks to the vaccines, so far so good.
Pamplemousse
03-07-21, 10:35
Pre-vaccines, this Delta variant-fuelled third wave would have meant an automatic full-on national lockdown.
Surely hospitalisations and deaths also would have been sky high by now.
But fortunately, thanks to the vaccines, so far so good.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57703959
From that link: 74% increase in cases in the last seven days, 55% increase in hospital admissions over the same period.
But hey, there's nothing like blind faith in a vaccine to make it all go away, is there? - or ridiculing those who can spot the mathematical trends and thus will remain ultra-cautious around the terminally stupid given their co-morbidities haven't gone away. Remember, half the country has an IQ of less than 100...
PM, perhaps it’s time to step away from the news for a bit. You can’t change anything by reading or watching it and it’s clearly upsetting you. I don’t say this to be patronising, I say it because it’s what I need to do sometimes too.
Most of the outcomes are out of our hands and we can only do what we can do to protect ourselves and our bubbles.
The scientists are scrutinising all the information that they have and I don’t doubt that we are in for some sensationalist headlines and reports for the next 2 weeks as hysteria about holidays and opening up builds. But it’s up to us to protect our mental health as much as our physical health, and it’s ok to back away from the figures for a while.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57703959
From that link: 74% increase in cases in the last seven days, 55% increase in hospital admissions over the same period.
But hey, there's nothing like blind faith in a vaccine to make it all go away, is there? - or ridiculing those who can spot the mathematical trends and thus will remain ultra-cautious around the terminally stupid given their co-morbidities haven't gone away. Remember, half the country has an IQ of less than 100...
That's a bit of a sweeping generalisation about 'half the country having an IQ of less than 100', PM.
Though I do agree that we have our fair share of thickos who only seem concerned about themselves and indignant about being denied their tri-annual trips to Benidorm for the second year running and believe that Covid is a hoax, and that jabs are bad for us or useless!
Pamplemousse
03-07-21, 12:18
That's a bit of a sweeping generalisation about 'half the country having an IQ of less than 100', PM.
No, it is not. The very definition of having an IQ of 100 is that it is average.
Go read about bell curves.
Pamplemousse
03-07-21, 12:20
Do we know which half, Mr Mousse?
They walk amongst us...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57703959
From that link: 74% increase in cases in the last seven days, 55% increase in hospital admissions over the same period.
But hey, there's nothing like blind faith in a vaccine to make it all go away, is there? - or ridiculing those who can spot the mathematical trends and thus will remain ultra-cautious around the terminally stupid given their co-morbidities haven't gone away. Remember, half the country has an IQ of less than 100...
It’s not blind faith, it’s based on data. Nobody is ridiculing you either, merely trying to get you to stop being such a bloody pessimist, and it’s for your own good.
However, I’ll leave you to play with your favourite doom and gloom toy because apparently asking you to put it down for ten minutes is a bridge too far.
No, it is not. The very definition of having an IQ of 100 is that it is average.
Go read about bell curves.
Simply out of interest, do you have any links to official stats to back that up?
Or perhaps the 'thickos' just happen to get the most media attention nowadays, as they and their antics obviously make for more exciting reading, but I wouldn't necessarily consider them the absolute 'be-all-and-end-all' of society today.
Pamplemousse
03-07-21, 14:17
Simply out of interest, do you have any links to official stats to back that up?
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-average-iq-2795284
Note the bell curve as mentioned: half of the distribution is at or below 100.
I had to laugh at the Woodcock-Johnson Cognitive Abilities test....
They walk amongst us...
I'm sure I'd score poorly
Pamplemousse
03-07-21, 14:32
I'm sure I'd score poorly
"Intelligence" is about so much more than IQ tests, P.
When I was in my late teens I did the MENSA entrance exam, which was basically puzzle-solving. I passed - IIRC my IQ was measured at 152.
However, subsequently I met people who were members of MENSA and, well... Groucho Marx applies. As for what my IQ is now - well, frankly I don't care.
I'd hate to have a high IQ because it can often bring its own problems. Bog standard would suit me fine.
What is "intelligence" anyway?
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-the-average-iq-2795284
Note the bell curve as mentioned: half of the distribution is at or below 100.
Don't mean to sound like a smart alec PM, but that particular site is of USA origin, and it's subject in question doesn't purport to be UK-specific in any way.
But thanks anyway.
I was a bit unsure about reopening but cases seem to have slowed. Full credit to the new health secretary a breath of fresh air really wants us to get back to normal masks going no QR codes no passports. I hope he does very well he would make an excellent PM better than the hopeless Johnston who has been a disaster.
I was a bit unsure about reopening but cases seem to have slowed. Full credit to the new health secretary a breath of fresh air really wants us to get back to normal masks going no QR codes no passports. I hope he does very well he would make an excellent PM better than the hopeless Johnston who has been a disaster.
Remember that reopening (or not) isn't only determined by the govt themselves, but also by expert scientists and advisors.
I'd rather listen to Whitty and Valance than to a newly appointed minister.
Pamplemousse
04-07-21, 14:45
I'd rather listen to Whitty and Valance than to a newly appointed minister.
And especially a Randist former merchant banker.
Pamplemousse
04-07-21, 16:10
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/04/uk-scientists-caution-that-lifting-of-covid-rules-is-like-building-variant-factories
Reacting to the comments, Prof Stephen Reicher at the University of St Andrews, a member of the Sage subcommittee advising on behavioural science, tweeted: “It is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who still thinks Covid is flu. Who is unconcerned at levels of infection. Who doesn’t realise that those who do best for health, also do best for the economy. Who wants to ditch all protections while only half of us are vaccinated.
“Above all, it is frightening to have a ‘health’ secretary who wants to make all protections a matter of personal choice when the key message of the pandemic is “this isn’t an ‘I’ thing, it’s a ‘we’ thing.”
Writing in a blog (https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/06/29/after-restriction-why-the-public-can-only-fulfill-its-responsibilities-if-the-government-fulfills-theirs/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage) for the British Medical Journal last week, Michie, together with Reicher and Prof Ann Phoenix at UCL’s Institute of Education, said Javid’s singular emphasis on the responsibility of individuals to identify and mitigate against Covid-19 risks, took the emphasis away from what the government must also do.
“If people are to act responsibly they need their government to fulfil its own responsibilities to make safe behaviour possible,” they said. “The fear is that when government talks about a “freedom day” when all restrictions are lifted, it doesn’t mean that the virus has gone away, and it doesn’t mean that measures are not needed to prevent a resurgence.
“What it does mean is that the government is planning to withdraw all forms of support and abandon us to deal with the pandemic on our own.”
Pamplemousse
04-07-21, 16:15
Also https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1411621102678417412
Squishchips
04-07-21, 16:27
Also https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1411621102678417412
Completely agree with this - it's complete insanity to me - not surprised considering the government we have and the new health minister in place.
I definitely understand the need to open but removing masks is completely reckless especially due to the amount of cases we're seeing at the moment.
I wonder how long it would be to get herd immunity if they let it run through the population if they do just remove everything as well?
Pamplemousse
04-07-21, 16:46
To me Squishchips, it's not so much returning to the no-cost ideal of "herd immunity" (after all, we do have a Government that knows the price of everything but the value of nothing) that bothers me but encouraging the creation of a virus mutation factory - and who's to say the next mutation won't be the one that renders all the vaccines utterly useless?
Then what? "Let the bodies pile high", as was rumoured to have been said?
It’s not just England
More of Wales' Covid-19 rules could change over the next few weeks from being legal requirements to government advice, according to a Welsh minister.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57707992
They have done all they can with vaccination due to be complete this month for first jabs. It’s time to move on as other countries like America have. If people still wish to wear a mask that’s personal
choice. I think it’s a welcome change of opinion from all governments.
France is considering mandatory vaccination though, Phil so not all countries have moved on if vaccination is at a lower level.
France is considering mandatory vaccination though, Phil so not all countries have moved on if vaccination is at a lower level.
That’s as they have lower levels I wonder will they bang down doors to jab people? Seemingly we have over 85% jabbed so won’t happen here hopefully. I don’t see how they can force people to take medical treatment. France isn’t really the ideal country not very forward thinking I believe Russia is the same
Bastille Day is fast approaching so maybe there will be a return to guillotine tactics, n'est-ce pas?:winks:
Bastille Day is fast approaching so maybe there will be a return to guillotine tactics, n'est-ce pas?:winks:
We are talking abut the least compliant population in Europe - the mob that rose up against tyranny of elites screaming 'Equalite, liberte et fraternite'.... current day 'maillot jaunes' ... the French just love to protest and kick back against the State.
Well Macron is no Robespierre nor a Louis XIV (L'Etat c'est moi) ... I'd love to see him try and get mandatory vaccination across the line
That’s as they have lower levels I wonder will they bang down doors to jab people? Seemingly we have over 85% jabbed so won’t happen here hopefully. I don’t see how they can force people to take medical treatment. France isn’t really the ideal country not very forward thinking I believe Russia is the same
We aren't France or Russia, Phil.
[QUOTE=dorabella;2011114]We are talking abut the least compliant population in Europe - the mob that rose up against tyranny of elites screaming 'Equalite, liberte et fraternite'.... current day 'maillot jaunes' ... the French just love to protest and kick back against the State.
Well Macron is no Robespierre nor a Louis XIV (L'Etat c'est moi) ... I'd love to see him try and get mandatory vaccination across the line
Let's see how the Vaccinons-Nous campaign goes..Plenty of enticements for the young as to what delights a jab or two will bring.
Pamplemousse
05-07-21, 08:18
Meanwhile at work, rising Covid cases and notifications are causing huge disruption to staffing and scheduling.
Still, as long as the terminally thick right-wingers get their holidays and pub visits, eh?
I have great admiration for the French; they wouldn't have suffered the cabal of mendacious fools that we allow ourselves to be ruled by.
P.S. The French protestors were dubbed "gilets jaunes".
Isn't the maillot jaune reserved for the leader in the Tour de France race?
Pamplemousse
05-07-21, 08:24
Isn't the maillot jaune reserved for the leader in the Tour de France race?
Yes. As in my earlier post, the protestors were dubbed "gilets jaunes".
Bastille Day is fast approaching so maybe there will be a return to guillotine tactics, n'est-ce pas?:winks:
Somebody's a Poirot fan... :yesyes:
Yes. As in my earlier post, the protestors were dubbed "gilets jaunes".
Gilets Jaunes = 'Yellow Vests' in English.
Surely there was talk of a related protest group in the UK around late 2018-early 2019, but never really gained a major foothold here, and had pretty much gone south by the end of 2019.
After all, there are quite a lot of copycatters in this country who seem to revel in aping stuff they see happening abroad simply for kicks, often 'disguised' as solidarity!
Pamplemousse
05-07-21, 10:55
Gilets Jaunes = 'Yellow Vests' in English.
Surely there was talk of a related protest group in the UK around late 2018-early 2019, but never really gained a major foothold here, and had pretty much gone south by the end of 2019.
Briefly adopted by the far right in this country.
Briefly adopted by the far right in this country.
But only shortlived, and seemingly petered out just as quickly as they first appeared!
Will we ever eradicate covid? I am afraid that the old normal will never return.
Squishchips
06-07-21, 09:14
Will we ever eradicate covid? I am afraid that the old normal will never return.
I don't think we will but over time it'll hopefully mutate into something more mild / vaccines will be able to cover more variants etc.
Let's hope so anyway as the UK gov seem to have washed their hands of trying to stop the spread
spectrum123
06-07-21, 09:30
We can't stop seasonal flu spreading, we can only try with the flu vax to reduce hospitalisations and deaths. We have to treat covid the same now and draw a line somewhere, we are never going to stop it completely.
I don't think we will but over time it'll hopefully mutate into something more mild / vaccines will be able to cover more variants etc.
Let's hope so anyway as the UK gov seem to have washed their hands of trying to stop the spread
I'm absolutely not a virologist, but I wonder if other coronaviruses (or common colds) started like this? When people started mixing more as populations increased back in Victorian times- weren't colds and coughs more deadly then? Maybe I read too much historical fiction 🙈 but it seems the norm that people took to their beds with viruses that hit them harder than most things we experience nowadays. Until now that it. Yes they mutate and now there's hundreds of strains of colds but they attack us in a similar way and to a similar intensity. Maybe because as a population as a whole we've developed some immunity to similar colds before? passed that partial immunity down to our offspring etc.
Fresher's flu (where a huge amount of students get ill in the first few weeks of university) springs to mind too. Maybe once this brand spanking new virus has done it's rounds (as is likely to happen now with absolutely everything opening up), it'll become more like your traditional cold.
Again, I'm not a viroligist or any medically trained in any way, these are just musings!
Pamplemousse
06-07-21, 10:04
Meanwhile, Humpty Dumpty has just warned that cases could rise to 100,000 a day once all restrictions are lifted.
As I suspected all along - it's "herd immunity" now, coupled with "survival of the fittest".
spectrum123
06-07-21, 10:16
Meanwhile, Humpty Dumpty has just warned that cases could rise to 100,000 a day once all restrictions are lifted.
As I suspected all along - it's "herd immunity" now, coupled with "survival of the fittest".
I wonder what the figure would be if we tested seasonal flu? 20-30% of people are asymptomatic with flu.
Squishchips
06-07-21, 11:46
I'm absolutely not a virologist, but I wonder if other coronaviruses (or common colds) started like this? When people started mixing more as populations increased back in Victorian times- weren't colds and coughs more deadly then? Maybe I read too much historical fiction but it seems the norm that people took to their beds with viruses that hit them harder than most things we experience nowadays. Until now that it. Yes they mutate and now there's hundreds of strains of colds but they attack us in a similar way and to a similar intensity. Maybe because as a population as a whole we've developed some immunity to similar colds before? passed that partial immunity down to our offspring etc.
Fresher's flu (where a huge amount of students get ill in the first few weeks of university) springs to mind too. Maybe once this brand spanking new virus has done it's rounds (as is likely to happen now with absolutely everything opening up), it'll become more like your traditional cold.
Again, I'm not a viroligist or any medically trained in any way, these are just musings!
I'm not either but as much as I understand (from what I've seen online!) - they've said viruses either get more deadly and die out (because they kill their hosts) which is why Ebola outbreaks are never (hopefully!!) that widespread as they kill people before they can continue to spread or they mutate to be much more manageable and treatable.
I'm guessing as well - as our knowledge of this virus continues so will treatment and medicine.
I'm sure the Spanish Flu did the same thing and eventually became something we could live with?
Pamplemousse
07-07-21, 11:43
From https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/data-predicting-2m-uk-summer-covid-cases-prompts-health-fears
Coronavirus infections are currently running at just under 29,000 a day UK-wide, and the health secretary told MPs that modelling suggested the figure could reach 50,000 a day by 19 July and then, later in the summer, 100,000 a day.
This would not overwhelm the health service, Javid said, because the vaccination programme had become a “wall” against mass severe illness and deaths: “Jab by jab, brick by brick, we have been building a defence against this virus.”
But 100,000 cases a day would be unprecedented during the pandemic in the UK, which hit a daily peak of just over 81,000 in late December.
While projections about the rise in cases vary considerably, even a relatively conservative estimate – a daily average of 35,000 cases a day from now till 19 July, and an average of 60,000 from then until 16 August – would give a total above 2 million.
Squishchips
07-07-21, 15:20
From https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/06/data-predicting-2m-uk-summer-covid-cases-prompts-health-fears
Those projected numbers are insane - if that actually happens - businesses will struggle as no staff, hospitals will definitely struggle as no staff and covid cases - so basically all the reopening they're doing will just delay everything anyway
The amount of people saying they're not going to be wearing a mask from 19th is insane as well - I hope at least one supermarket keeps it in place so there's somewhere vulnerable people can shop.
Trying very hard not to be completely negative but it's a bit hard not too!
Pamplemousse
07-07-21, 16:29
In the absence of a fridge here, Squishchips, I'm just having deliveries twice a week. It costs as much as I'd spend in petrol anyway.
Read BTL comments on websites and there's a lot of "delete the Covid app" and "I'm not isolating" and I can see a booming trade in refrigerated containers to keep the bodies in.
Squishchips
07-07-21, 17:32
In the absence of a fridge here, Squishchips, I'm just having deliveries twice a week. It costs as much as I'd spend in petrol anyway.
Read BTL comments on websites and there's a lot of "delete the Covid app" and "I'm not isolating" and I can see a booming trade in refrigerated containers to keep the bodies in.
We do as well - though did go to Aldi the other day and everyone except one in there had a mask on - people are quite good up here (Norfolk)
I do wonder if he'll backtrack on the 12th given the case numbers today but very much doubt it. Am no longer surprised by just how poor this government is.
Thoughts on this?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9765399/UKs-daily-cases-hit-highest-level-JANUARY-deaths-double-33.html
“hybrid immunity”
Meanwhile, Humpty Dumpty has just warned that cases could rise to 100,000 a day once all restrictions are lifted.
As I suspected all along - it's "herd immunity" now, coupled with "survival of the fittest".
Yes what’s everybody’s thoughts on herd immunity vs New Zealand going for zero covid?
Isn't Sajid Javed a breath of fresh air though, Phil?
Isn't Sajid Javed a breath of fresh air though, Phil?
Predictions, data, modelling ... when it comes down to it, you either believe that the vaccine works or it doesn't. Seems to be the ethos behind the recent statements on easing ... and frankly Javid's approach is refreshing. We have to open up sometime and better now than later.
When NZ opens up to the world again, they are going to get hit with it ... they might have been better off adopting an approach between Swedish and rest of European practice and building up a measure of exposure in their society. That's what I think.
Isn't Sajid Javed a breath of fresh air though, Phil?
Predictions, data, modelling ... when it comes down to it, you either believe that the vaccine works or it doesn't. Seems to be the ethos behind the recent statements on easing ... and frankly Javid's approach is refreshing. We have to open up sometime and better now than later.
When NZ opens up to the world again, they are going to get hit with it ... they might have been better off adopting an approach between Swedish and rest of European practice and building up a measure of exposure in their society. That's what I think.
Yep I fear one we are out of this in 2022 we could see Australia and NZ in full lockdowns and lots of cases. It will be like 2020 all over for them. I don’t think zero covid is possible at this stage.
Yep I fear one we are out of this in 2022 we could see Australia and NZ in full lockdowns and lots of cases. It will be like 2020 all over for them. I don’t think zero covid is possible at this stage.
It isn’t, and I genuinely haven’t heard anyone saying it is. Herd immunity probably isn’t going to happen either, given that we’re now dealing with a variant that is ridiculously more transmissible than the variant first detected in Wuhan.
As for the vaccine not working, I again have to point out that case levels seen over the past month or so would have previously seen is thrown into strict lockdown, hospitals would be jam packed and we’d probably be dealing with around 300-400 deaths per day.
As it is, hospitals are dealing with this with relative ease, death rates are around the same as daily fatal road accidents and with every day that passes we’re putting highly protective vaccines in the arms of tens of thousands more people.
As it stands, we remove restrictions. The data says it’s right. If the data starts to show huge growths in severe illness, we put the brakes on. At a certain point we need to fight this bloody virus, running and hiding is, at this point, no longer an option.
spectrum123
07-07-21, 19:19
Yep I fear one we are out of this in 2022 we could see Australia and NZ in full lockdowns and lots of cases. It will be like 2020 all over for them. I don’t think zero covid is possible at this stage.
Zero covid will be virtually impossible, I think we know that now. All countries can do now is limit it as much as possible, including ourselves. The vaccine will hopefully and any further boosters limit the amount of seriously ill and deaths. There will always be a few of the vulnerable and the unvaccinated who will always at risk of current and future variants.
The majority of certainly the UK, and most of Europe who are vaccinated will be able to carry on normal life, safe in knowledge they have protected themselves as much as they reasonably can without hopefully the need to isolate.
Only time will tell how successful we have been at beating covid.
Yup, I'm with you Spectrum, agree.
It isn’t, and I genuinely haven’t heard anyone saying it is. Herd immunity probably isn’t going to happen either, given that we’re now dealing with a variant that is ridiculously more transmissible than the variant first detected in Wuhan.
As for the vaccine not working, I again have to point out that case levels seen over the past month or so would have previously seen is thrown into strict lockdown, hospitals would be jam packed and we’d probably be dealing with around 300-400 deaths per day.
As it is, hospitals are dealing with this with relative ease, death rates are around the same as daily fatal road accidents and with every day that passes we’re putting highly protective vaccines in the arms of tens of thousands more people.
As it stands, we remove restrictions. The data says it’s right. If the data starts to show huge growths in severe illness, we put the brakes on. At a certain point we need to fight this bloody virus, running and hiding is, at this point, no longer an option.
Some extremely vulnerable people still need to hide from it though. Some people don't have the defences to fight it even when double vaccinated.
We're pretty "free" as it is. I haven't noticed troops patrolling the streets enforcing any curfews. It looks pretty free and easy at Wembley tonight.
Would keeping the face mask/social distancing in place for longer "destroy" healthy people's lives? Or would it allow the vulnerable minority to continue living their lives with more freedom?
It isn’t, and I genuinely haven’t heard anyone saying it is. Herd immunity probably isn’t going to happen either, given that we’re now dealing with a variant that is ridiculously more transmissible than the variant first detected in Wuhan.
As for the vaccine not working, I again have to point out that case levels seen over the past month or so would have previously seen is thrown into strict lockdown, hospitals would be jam packed and we’d probably be dealing with around 300-400 deaths per day.
As it is, hospitals are dealing with this with relative ease, death rates are around the same as daily fatal road accidents and with every day that passes we’re putting highly protective vaccines in the arms of tens of thousands more people.
As it stands, we remove restrictions. The data says it’s right. If the data starts to show huge growths in severe illness, we put the brakes on. At a certain point we need to fight this bloody virus, running and hiding is, at this point, no longer an option.
Why do you think herd immunity may not be possible? High case numbers? I heard today of someone double vaccinated got covid yet they are allowing vaccinated to travel? Surely long term they will see all it does is stop illness rather than spread. I know the other day we discussed testing less I mentioned Germany? It doesn’t go away but perhaps the point is why asymptomatic test? The at risk groups had a vaccine so they are now as safe as can be. These high cases appear to be mild illness like flu.
spectrum123
07-07-21, 20:10
Why do you think herd immunity may not be possible? High case numbers? I heard today of someone double vaccinated got covid yet they are allowing vaccinated to travel? Surely long term they will see all it does is stop illness rather than spread. I know the other day we discussed testing less I mentioned Germany? It doesn’t go away but perhaps the point is why asymptomatic test? The at risk groups had a vaccine so they are now as safe as can be. These high cases appear to be mild illness like flu.
We don't have herd immunity with flu, we are unlikely to achieve it with covid.
If you are vaccinated you can get covid, but without any underlying conditions it is very unlikely you will require hospital treatment, therefore you can carry on life as normal.
Vaccinated people have low transmission rates, even lower between two vaccinated people, but can still sometimes carry and transmit to the unvaccinated.
The unvaccinated, who may be unaware they have covid, are a massive risk of creating further mutations and transmitting it to the at risk who may not gain the full protection of a vaccine.
Pamplemousse
07-07-21, 20:52
Isn't Sajid Javed a breath of fresh air though, Phil?
I've been in fresher air sat in my car with the aircon off and the after-effects of a lamb dopiaza.
Pamplemousse
07-07-21, 21:00
death rates are around the same as daily fatal road accidents
Sorry Gary, but that's complete BS.
Road deaths from the last available figures (June 2020) are just over four per day - the latest figure from the DoT was 1580; the year before was 1827, or five a day.
The KSI figure, as in "Killed or Seriously Injured" was 24,470 for the year to June 2020 - 67 per day.
I've been in fresher air sat in my car with the aircon off and the after-effects of a lamb dopiaza.
Whoever sold those Hancock pics to The Sun must be keeping their fingers crossed now...
It isn’t, and I genuinely haven’t heard anyone saying it is. Herd immunity probably isn’t going to happen either, given that we’re now dealing with a variant that is ridiculously more transmissible than the variant first detected in Wuhan.
As for the vaccine not working, I again have to point out that case levels seen over the past month or so would have previously seen is thrown into strict lockdown, hospitals would be jam packed and we’d probably be dealing with around 300-400 deaths per day.
As it is, hospitals are dealing with this with relative ease, death rates are around the same as daily fatal road accidents and with every day that passes we’re putting highly protective vaccines in the arms of tens of thousands more people.
As it stands, we remove restrictions. The data says it’s right. If the data starts to show huge growths in severe illness, we put the brakes on. At a certain point we need to fight this bloody virus, running and hiding is, at this point, no longer an option.
Some very good points there, Gary, especially what you said about case numbers over the past month or so which 6-12 months ago would have automatically meant far more hospitalisations and deaths, plus inadvertently, full-on national lockdowns. And all without the jabs.
For a bit of perspective and context;
Today's cases: 32,548.
Today's deaths: 33.
Latest hospitalisations: 386 (3/7/21).
Latest daily Covid tests: 968,588.
(And with 86% now having received their first jab and 64% having received their second).
Compare that to the first time daily Covid cases exceeded 30k, on 12th November 2020, on that date;
Cases: 33,470.
Deaths: 563.
Hospitalisations: 1,687 (4 days earlier).
Daily Covid tests: 377,608.
(And all still pre-vaccines).
Quite a significant difference with the deaths, hospitalisations and even tests then vs now when measured against roughly similar case numbers on both occasions.
However, I agree with Pulisa that we still need to keep a close watch on the clinically vulnerable and immunocompromised, who are still most likely to slip through the net, despite their being double-jabbed.
As for those who are deliberately refusing the jabs (not counting those who have fully legit reasons for doing so) and still, inadvertently, ignoring and refusing to follow the guidelines, they can basically 'own' it and face the music!
Plus they're probably the ones who would most likely be having hissy fits if we were (heaven forbid) forced to have a fourth national lockdown!
I know I probably sound a bit harsh, but that's how I feel right now about the deniers and non-believers!
Some very good points there, Gary, especially what you said about case numbers over the past month or so which 6-12 months ago would have automatically meant far more hospitalisations and deaths, plus inadvertently, full-on national lockdowns. And all without the jabs.
For a bit of perspective and context;
Today's cases: 32,548.
Today's deaths: 33.
Latest hospitalisations: 386 (3/7/21).
Latest daily Covid tests: 968,588.
(And with 86% now having received their first jab and 64% having received their second).
Compare that to the first time daily Covid cases exceeded 30k, on 12th November 2020, on that date;
Cases: 33,470.
Deaths: 563.
Hospitalisations: 1,687 (4 days earlier).
Daily Covid tests: 377,608.
(And all still pre-vaccines).
Quite a significant difference with the deaths, hospitalisations and even tests then vs now when measured against roughly similar case numbers on both occasions.
However, I agree with Pulisa that we still need to keep a close watch on the clinically vulnerable and immunocompromised, who are still most likely to slip through the net, despite their being double-jabbed.
As for those who are deliberately refusing the jabs (not counting those who have fully legit reasons for doing so) and still, inadvertently, ignoring and refusing to follow the guidelines, they can basically 'own' it and face the music!
Plus they're probably the ones who would most likely be having hissy fits if we were (heaven forbid) forced to have a fourth national lockdown!
I know I probably sound a bit harsh, but that's how I feel right now about the deniers and non-believers!
Also, whilst on the same subject, how ironic would it be if the pro-lockdown brigades were to protest en masse in central London (and other major cities) during the run up to the final easements currently proposed for 19th July?
For a bit of perspective and context;
Nice to see someone actually doing this on this site rather than constantly hitting the panic button.
Lockdowns were a stall until vaccinations were administered. They have been administered. Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.
On a lighter note, congratulations to all my English friends on here for reaching a major final. A bit of sunshine in an otherwise awful time.
On a lighter note, congratulations to all my English friends on here for reaching a major final. A bit of sunshine in an otherwise awful time.
Thank you for your kind comments, Gary.
First time it's happened since 1966.
Nice to see someone actually doing this on this site rather than constantly hitting the panic button.
Lockdowns were a stall until vaccinations were administered. They have been administered. Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.
Yes, I actually studied the dashboard site in depth, making the best possible side-by-side comparisons with the first (and previous) time that cases exceeded 30k last November.
Of course, we're still at the mercy of whether or not more harmful Covid variants even worse than Delta develop in due course, but so far so good.
Good 'perspective and context' stuff, illustrating what Gary (and reports) have been saying for a few weeks now.......good to see in numbers like that though.
Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.
Yup, seems so.......and so onwards we have to go.....living with what it is right now.
MyNameIsTerry
08-07-21, 06:15
I think mask wearing and social distancing should continue since these aren't costing us any more than a little inconvenience. So I hope the NHS and business will continue given some PPE is already in place e.g. screens. I can't see the NHS changing this whilst Delta is in play. Granted, some costs remain to business (such as staff issued masks) but big business can weather that bill to their bottom line.
But it's not as simple as increased infection = increased mortality. It is, if you live in a corona-vacuum view of society. There has to be a measuring up of which is worse because regardless of which way, some are going to die. Cancer patients died during this period because the NHS wasn't running as normal. All those resources that exist to support us come at a cost that have to be balanced. If we lockdown for the rest of the year what is the impact on them? Vaccination means less impact allowing the NHS to refocus on it's BAU. But current rules prevent loved ones being there so I think we would welcome relaxation this way.
If NHS bosses can handle this whilst returning to other important treatments then the rock and hard place is more economical. After this all that mounting debt is going to hammer local services. No doubt people will complain when resources are cut and maybe taxes go up. Sadly belts will have to be tightened due to unforeseen circumstances. But many will moan anyway. Every party would have done similiar with lockdowns and financial support; some would have gone further and increased debt. But the cost is always coming back.
As services suffer you can bet so will people. Some may even die. The longer we postpone a return to some normality what is the impact downstream? Would less cancer drugs be purchased? Would less support to chronically ill people be available?
It will be interesting 5 years from now what experts believe to have been best. Future generations might be annoyed if we kick the can so far down the road they get saddled with it. Future patients denied treatments might disagree with previous strategies.
I do not agree with the personal responsibility route because it's a good way to wash your hands when you should be planning for pillocks. The government overreach mob (hard left and right) will complain but protection is more important than liberty to me in a health situation like this.
I still think it's important to understand why people are dying. It's still horrible if you are the unlucky family. But are we hoping for zero Covid when we think nothing of the many ways the same people die each year? Why don't we want all this PPE and extra rules then? Could it have made the difference? How do I know people dying are taking steps to protect themselves? Are the counting rules appropriate now?
It's always going to sound callous. We are back to pounds vs people. But at what point does Covid become another one of those which so many of us rarely consider unless it's in the media?
Squishchips
08-07-21, 07:23
Nice to see someone actually doing this on this site rather than constantly hitting the panic button.
Lockdowns were a stall until vaccinations were administered. They have been administered. Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.
I do understand what you are saying but I don't think it's hitting the panic button necessarily - it's now been seen this new variant can get through some of the vaccinated, we've got 30,000+ cases a day now and hospitalisations are going up (albeit nowhere near what it was thankfully!)
Over 100 doctors/scientists have now signed a letter saying these restrictions being removed early are dangerous (https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1412905190869643268?s=21)
I agree lockdown needs to end but to end it without the simplest of measures (keeping mask wearing) is dangerous in my opinion.
I guess time will tell and I'm really hoping I'm wrong obviously. I do have a tendency to look at the worst case scenario so maybe I am hitting that panic button after all but I just don't see how any of this can be positive personally.
spectrum123
08-07-21, 07:49
We have at least 10,000 deaths per year from flu, and we accept that, there has to be a level of deaths we must accept from covid now as it's clear it's not going away.
Your husband is vulnerable and you have suffered bereavement due to Covid, Squishchips. I don't think you've been hitting the panic button at all. I'm in favour of mask continuation whilst we are dealing with a third wave whether we have an effective vaccine programme or not.
My hairdressers are keeping things as they are now post July19th. I suppose small shops can do as they please.
We have at least 10,000 deaths per year from flu, and we accept that, there has to be a level of deaths we must accept from covid now as it's clear it's not going away.
Flu or pneumonia?
We have at least 10,000 deaths per year from flu, and we accept that, there has to be a level of deaths we must accept from covid now as it's clear it's not going away.
And the govt did warn us the other day that there's a chance that daily cases could reach between 50k and 100k over the coming weeks, despite the easements of restrictions currently proposed for 19th July provisionally getting the go-ahead.
ATM vaccination rates appear to be plateauing at fairly low levels, so unless some of those who are currently hesitant in getting jabbed have fully legit reasons for not doing so, I have very little sympathy for them right now, especially if their not getting jabbed is simply out of rebellion or can't be bothered-ness!
Squishchips
08-07-21, 08:58
Your husband is vulnerable and you have suffered bereavement due to Covid, Squishchips. I don't think you've been hitting the panic button at all. I'm in favour of mask continuation whilst we are dealing with a third wave whether we have an effective vaccine programme or not.
My hairdressers are keeping things as they are now post July19th. I suppose small shops can do as they please.
Thank you Pulisa - I do know my situation has made things different for me to view - sometimes hard to see what's normal and what's not
and that's good news re the hairdressers - at least you can get a safe haircut going forward!
We use a mobile hairdresser and she's said she's keeping masks and ensuring all clients wear a mask too - if they refuse she won't go to them so there's that at least
We have at least 10,000 deaths per year from flu, and we accept that, there has to be a level of deaths we must accept from covid now as it's clear it's not going away.
I understand this but covid isn't the flu.
Also the risk of mutations from it being left to go unchecked through the population is a risk. It's definitely not going away, you're correct but I do think there is a difference between accepting that and still being careful (masks / some restrictions) compared to a free for all where we allow it to completely run it's way through.
spectrum123
08-07-21, 09:19
Flu or pneumonia?
Flu and pneumonia in causation with flu.
Isn't that the same with covid that it then runs into severe pneumonia?
Covid is very different from flu though. It's far more than a respiratory infection for some unfortunate people. It's still an unknown quantity and then there's the Long Covid enigma.
spectrum123
08-07-21, 15:09
Covid is very different from flu though. It's far more than a respiratory infection for some unfortunate people. It's still an unknown quantity and then there's the Long Covid enigma.
Unfortunately I think we need to accept people will continue to die from covid for quite a while yet maybe long term. If we accept at the moment 10k deaths per year from flu and complications from flu, where do we set the limit for covid, the same amount?
Thank you for your kind comments, Gary.
First time it's happened since 1966.
For the men’s team.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Unfortunately I think we need to accept people will continue to die from covid for quite a while yet maybe long term. If we accept at the moment 10k deaths per year from flu and complications from flu, where do we set the limit for covid, the same amount?
I would hate to have to make such a clinical decision.
Quite apart from deaths the sheer disruption Covid brings with self-isolation/PCR/LF tests isn't something which we have ever needed with flu or norovirus outbreaks. Surely there is a case for trying to limit spread with a continuation of masks and social distancing? Vaccination doesn't appear to be sufficient with the Delta variant?
Pamplemousse
08-07-21, 17:59
I understand that LF tests will cease to be free very shortly.
I will be interested to see how businesses and workplaces react after 19/7: I get the feeling that where I work is very unlikely to change anything from where we are now, likewise I can imagine screens remaining in place in shops.
I imagine the biggest changes will be in the hospitality industry, especially pubs. I'm curious to know how the railway tour industry will behave as the more seats they can sell in the dining parts of the charter trains obviously means more money for the operator - and I'm booked on two such trains in late September and mid-October.
Hi all,
ive had a big flare up over the last week due to rising cases. After 18 months of being told to fear the virus, I’m finding it hard to understand how we can be opening back up with cases soaring. Talk of 100,000 cases a day has me worrying. I’m full vaccinated since Wed, but really struggling with the idea of fully unlocking. I’m terrified that a new variant is going to emerge and evade vaccines. In May I really thought we were out of this, but now I’m terrified that it will never end.
It seems like it's a question of trial and error now, doesn't it? I wonder what Matt Hancock thinks..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_DDqsqhrfE
Apologies if this link has been posted somewhere else, but Dr Campbell discussing a presentation from numerous scientists that the 19th July reopening is 'dangerous and premature'.
On a lighter note, congratulations to all my English friends on here for reaching a major final. A bit of sunshine in an otherwise awful time.Thank you Gary, that's a very magnanimous gesture. I salute you.
I find it weird that they put a date on this. All it's done is promote anxiety and dissent. The bottom line is, if you've been vaxxed, you can start to return to normality within reason. If not, 'good luck'.
Here in the US, most stores and public places have said that if you're vaxxed, you don't have to wear a mask. If not, mask up. Of course there's no way to check that unless you require showing your vax card. So.... If you feel confident going into places with the current rules, so be it, if not, wear a mask. It's not really that hard of a decision TBH.
FMP
So.... If you feel confident going into places with the current rules, so be it, if not, wear a mask. It's not really that hard of a decision TBH.
FMP
True Fishman.. So far, so good. We'll see what the fall and winter bring but I don't see us going back to a mandated lockdown, don't think our country can take another hit like 2020 and I also don't think people will tolerate it.
True Fishman.. So far, so good. We'll see what the fall and winter bring but I don't see us going back to a mandated lockdown, don't think our country can take another hit like 2020 and I also don't think people will tolerate it.
While I believe some countries less fortunate than ours may still have to contend with lockdowns, I believe most countries are, or are on the verge of returning to normality. It still comes down to getting vaxxed and using common sense.
FMP
What's common sense? It's in short supply here.
elizabethalice
11-07-21, 08:29
A lot of Brits unfortunately don't have common sense! I've been in Cornwall this summer- we've been hiking and camping so felt pretty safe ourselves covid wise - but the rates have shot up because of the amount of tourists who aren't social distancing, not wearing masks on buses and in shops, etc. Its such a tough situation for locals, who need the tourism money but also are struggling with a wave of infections in a place that's always had low covid levels until now. Lots of my family are from here and I haven't even been to see them because it's just not worth the risk when rates are so high. Also loads of restaurants and cafes having to close because of people isolating - even the railway service from London to Penzance had to run a limited service because so many staff members have to isolate! Just seems crazy to go full steam ahead when all of this is happening. Sorry, ranting a bit here!
A lot of Brits unfortunately don't have common sense! I've been in Cornwall this summer- we've been hiking and camping so felt pretty safe ourselves covid wise - but the rates have shot up because of the amount of tourists who aren't social distancing, not wearing masks on buses and in shops, etc. Its such a tough situation for locals, who need the tourism money but also are struggling with a wave of infections in a place that's always had low covid levels until now. Lots of my family are from here and I haven't even been to see them because it's just not worth the risk when rates are so high. Also loads of restaurants and cafes having to close because of people isolating - even the railway service from London to Penzance had to run a limited service because so many staff members have to isolate! Just seems crazy to go full steam ahead when all of this is happening. Sorry, ranting a bit here!
I agree completely but it's going to be the "cautious" lifting approach which is a nonsense really.
If England win tonight it'll be a real test for the vaccines.
Being in London this weekend it has surprised me how many people aren't wearing masks on the tube. Some will have been exempt, but others were wearing their masks under their chin, hanging from one ear or with their nose poking out. Doesn't make sense to me as in my eyes I would have thought that was a high risk scenario.
I must admit it has made me feel quite anxious.
Pamplemousse
11-07-21, 12:31
Being in London this weekend it has surprised me how many people aren't wearing masks on the tube. Some will have been exempt, but others were wearing their masks under their chin, hanging from one ear or with their nose poking out. Doesn't make sense to me as in my eyes I would have thought that was a high risk scenario.
I must admit it has made me feel quite anxious.
I've just been having a text chat with a friend of mine who found himself on a train yesterday in London and masks were conspicuous by their absence; the experience put him off travelling by train today to an event which he'd invited me to.
I've been invited to a social event in three weeks' time by a friend: I said I'd come, but I am very, very dubious. I suspect his perspective on getting sick is different to mine though.
Pamplemousse
11-07-21, 12:31
What's common sense? It's in short supply here.
There's no such thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_DDqsqhrfE
Apologies if this link has been posted somewhere else, but Dr Campbell discussing a presentation from numerous scientists that the 19th July reopening is 'dangerous and premature'.
Well should they go the whole hog and demand a fourth full national lockdown then?
Or even start up a pro-lockdown protest group?
I've just been having a text chat with a friend of mine who found himself on a train yesterday in London and masks were conspicuous by their absence; the experience put him off travelling by train today to an event which he'd invited me to.
I've been invited to a social event in three weeks' time by a friend: I said I'd come, but I am very, very dubious. I suspect his perspective on getting sick is different to mine though.
It's been like this in London for quite some time, but to be expected in a big city. Some of the trains and underground service very busy with masked and unmasked but others virtually empty at off peak times of day. Saw this morning that transport between London city and Wembley has been halted to stop crowds gathering I expect, although official reason is due to staff shortages.
Doesn't help that there are two major sporting fixtures going on at same time - Euro final and men's singles finals - absolute havoc for roads and rail transport.
Even at best of times of times i never travel in peak hours so hasn't made much difference to my movement but I can understand people being nervous of this. But I think that it will all be part of the learning to live with the virus scenario. We can't keep running from it and especially the younger generation won't stay cooped up and fearful forever. Virus is now endemic and we have to try and return to some semblance of 'normality' or keep kicking it down the road with never ending lockdowns.
July 19th is going to happen regardless of anything. "Freedom" Day means we are all free to choose how we live for the foreseeable.
July 19th is going to happen regardless of anything. "Freedom" Day means we are all free to choose how we live for the foreseeable.
Yeah, I think it's very much a case of 'damned if do, damned if don't' right now.
For yet another piece of perspective;
3-week period from 9th-30th Oct 2020 (when the second wave was really starting to gather momentum);
Cases: 414,066.
(13,864 on 9/10, 24,405 on 30/10).
Deaths: 3,550.
(87 on 9/10, 274 on 30/10)
3-week period from 18th Jun-
10th Jul 2021 (into the third wave);
Cases: 479,000.
(10,476 on 18/6, 35,707 on 9/7)
Deaths: 429.
(14 on 19/6, 34 on 10/7)
+64,934 more cases during 3-week period from 18th Jun-10th Jul 2021, compared to 3-week period from 9th-30th Oct 2020.
Obviously due to the current (Delta) variant being more contagious, whereas back in October we still mostly had the original variant.
-3,121 fewer deaths during 3-week period from 18th Jun-10th Jul 2021,
compared to 3-week period from 9th-30th Oct 2020.
Now; vaccines.
Then; still no vaccines.
Please forgive me for coming across as a potential 'know-it-all'/'smart alec', but I have this afternoon studied the dashboard site in depth in order to analyse the gulf between cases and deaths in the current third wave vs the gulf between cases and deaths when the second wave was really starting to get going last October, and the gulf between cases and deaths this time round is much wider.
All using the 'by date reported' measure, BTW.
Wow LBoy.... you're still really fixating on this eh? Guess what I'm saying is... Ok fine, you're following it, but can you really do anything about it and how healthy is it mentally?
FMP
Wow LBoy.... you're still really fixating on this eh? Guess what I'm saying is... Ok fine, you're following it, but can you really do anything about it and how healthy is it mentally?
FMP
I'm mostly trying to reassure those who are currently quaking in their boots over our current third wave that our death levels so far during this third wave, whilst still one too many, are still significantly lower than those seen with similar case numbers during the previous wave.
And also amid the divided opinions amongst many right now over as to unlock or not to unlock, of which I still cannot make up my mind over.
All we can really do is look after ourselves and our loved ones, use common sense and encourage others to get the vax. Other than that, what will be will be. We cannot control people nor do we really have a say in government business other than the right to vote.
FMP
All we can really do is look after ourselves and our loved ones, use common sense and encourage others to get the vax. Other than that, what will be will be. We cannot control people nor do we really have a say in government business other than the right to vote.
FMP
Trouble is, many people appear to have lost interest in getting the jabs of late, and not just in the UK, but also in many other Western nations.
And this is despite there being no reports of any vaccine shortages of late, plus reports of complications allegedly caused by the jabs have also received less media attention of late, so seems more a case of complacency and can't be bothered-ness.
I know you are terrified about a 4th wave though, Lenco and feel that you are also trying to reassure yourself with all this studying of statistics?
Just take care of your own mental health? Others will do as they please regardless of anything. It's pointless getting worked up about something beyond your control.
Trouble is, many people appear to have lost interest in getting the jabs of late, and not just in the UK, but also in many other Western nations.
And this is despite there being no reports of any vaccine shortages of late, plus reports of complications allegedly caused by the jabs have also received less media attention of late, so seems more a case of complacency and can't be bothered-ness.
Again, at this point, what can you or I or anyone else do about it? Our governments have provided a solution with the vaccines and I for one took advantage of it and will continue to do so. As a result, I'm returning to a a new normal and will move on. COVID is around to stay so what else can one do?
But all that said, if it gives you satisfaction researching statistics and trends, then so be it :shrug:
FMP
Again, at this point, what can you or I or anyone else do about it? Our governments have provided a solution with the vaccines and I for one took advantage of it and will continue to do so. As a result, I'm returning to a a new normal and will move on. COVID is around to stay so what else can one do?
But all that said, if it gives you satisfaction researching statistics and trends, then so be it :shrug:
FMP
Well I suppose what you're saying, as far as those who decline the jabs and fail to stick to the guidelines are concerned, that's their problem.
Let's keep hoping no further (and potentially more harmful) variants end up developing in due course.
Well I suppose what you're saying, as far as those who decline the jabs and fail to stick to the guidelines are concerned, that's their problem.
Let's keep hoping no further (and potentially more harmful) variants end up developing in due course.
That's exactly what I'm saying. Inevitably, there will be other variants and the pharm companies will tweak the vaccine to accommodate them. Much like they do with the Flu vaccines year to year. Those that get the boosters and vaxxes will have protection, those that don't, won't. Simple as that.
This pandemic took us by storm. Many here remember measles, chicken pox and a few others and were vaccinated against it. COVID will eventually become like the others and while there will still be those that elect not to protect themselves, that's on them. Look, I was pretty freaked by this as many were. I was part of the very vulnerable. It took a little while for me to feel comfortable after my vax but at this point, like I said, I use common sense and good judgement concerning mask wearing and am moving on with my life as many others are. We're coming on the tail end of this and I certainly there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I hope that eventually, many here will feel the same.
FMP
That's exactly what I'm saying. Inevitably, there will be other variants and the pharm companies will tweak the vaccine to accommodate them. Much like they do with the Flu vaccines year to year. Those that get the boosters and vaxxes will have protection, those that don't, won't. Simple as that.
This pandemic took us by storm. Many here remember measles, chicken pox and a few others and were vaccinated against it. COVID will eventually become like the others and while there will still be those that elect not to protect themselves, that's on them. Look, I was pretty freaked by this as many were. I was part of the very vulnerable. It took a little while for me to feel comfortable after my vax but at this point, like I said, I use common sense and good judgement concerning mask wearing and am moving on with my life as many others are. We're coming on the tail end of this and I certainly there is some light at the end of the tunnel. I hope that eventually, many here will feel the same.
FMP
I truly admire your optimism, FMP.
I truly admire your optimism, FMP.
"Life is 10% what happens to us, 90% how we handle it." - Charles Swindoll
elizabethalice
12-07-21, 09:44
It's a bit frustrating how vaccine uptake has slowed, but those of us who have only had first jabs and are waiting for 2nd still can't get it sooner. I moved mine forward a bit but I could have it now going by the actual vaccine guidelines (it's been over 3 weeks since first dose).
I have covid antibodies too from previous covid so I'm not too worried about myself and my partner, but I really want my sister and stepsister to be able to get theirs as they are only relying on one vaccine at the moment.
More counties like Germany to be added to green list. That means no quarantine for vaccinated or unvaccinated but still having to take tests on return. Progress maybe eventually the testing part won’t be required anymore.
Pamplemousse
12-07-21, 11:24
More counties like Germany to be added to green list. That means no quarantine for vaccinated or unvaccinated but still having to take tests on return. Progress maybe eventually the testing part won’t be required anymore.
What you're forgetting is what the country you plan to visit does on your arrival: the "green list" is not necessarily reciprocal. Current advice (from gov.uk)
From 7 July, the UK is designated as a ‘high-incidence area’, which means that you may only enter Germany from the UK if you are fully vaccinated (for any travel purpose), a German citizen, resident, or their spouse/partner/child under 18, serve in an important role or have an urgent need to travel. Otherwise travellers may not enter Germany from the UK. Further information about restrictions on entry is on the Federal Interior Ministry website, including information about what constitutes an urgent need for travel.
Travel from the UK is generally subject to pre-departure digital registration and 10-day quarantine with test and release available after 5 days. The fully vaccinated are exempt from quarantine.
So in other words - no tourism.
France?
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/france/entry-requirements
France is mandating vaccines I know I asked this loads but we have 87% but they could come after the the unvaccinated here too and could try and turn up at my door and pin me down to jab me? I know people said that won’t happen in France but what exactly does mandated jabs mean or in France having to take COVID tests to enter restaurants? Surely that won’t help tourism? I know many here support the jab but my wife has been advised to have a second dose due to a stomach reaction so I fear being discriminated against or they could force more doses on my wife?
What you're forgetting is what the country you plan to visit does on your arrival: the "green list" is not necessarily reciprocal. Current advice (from gov.uk)
So in other words - no tourism.
France?
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/france/entry-requirements
My parents are due to go on a cruise feb 2022 but I fear they won’t be able to go to be honest. I think travel is skewed seemingly we had ID cards or something after Spanish flu or the war and it took years to get rid. The government won’t give up power easy
My next prediction: we as a species will die by 2022. This virus is mutating far too quickly for us to handle.
My next prediction: we as a species will die by 2022. This virus is mutating far too quickly for us to handle.
Well I hope we can fit the Qatar World Cup in first..although maybe it should be brought forward from Dec 2022?:winks:
https://twitter.com/mark_j_harper/status/1414631564730843137?s=21
Are we going to pin people to a chair to jab them? In France how would mandated vaccines work they turn up at your door and they inject you on doorstep? Or strap you down? Can’t believe I have to ask this..
My next prediction: we as a species will die by 2022. This virus is mutating far too quickly for us to handle.
I predict - you are totally wrong.
My next prediction: we as a species will die by 2022. This virus is mutating far too quickly for us to handle.
It’s mutating quickly because it’s so widespread. Viruses mutate all the time, it’s just that this is a global virus therefore mutations get around far easier. As the virus becomes more controlled due to vaccination and naturally acquired immunity, less mutations will happen.
As long as it exists it will mutate, our job is to ensure we give it as little chance of mutating as we can. Even so, mutations aren’t always a bad thing. Over time, there’s just as much chance of it mutating to a point of being nothing more than a nuisance. It’s in the viruses evolutionary interest to keep us alive, if we die, it dies.
Your prediction is based on your anxiety and catastrophic thinking. The evidence in the real world just doesn’t point your prediction in any way at all.
https://twitter.com/mark_j_harper/status/1414631564730843137?s=21
Are we going to pin people to a chair to jab them? In France how would mandated vaccines work they turn up at your door and they inject you on doorstep? Or strap you down? Can’t believe I have to ask this..
It can, and probably will, be mandated in order to be able to do certain jobs and go to certain places. That in no way, shape or form means that a team of muscly medics are going to turn up at your front door and drag you to the ground to vaccinate you.
I think you know this. I think you know you’re being over the top. Once again, you need to learn to accept the possibility that refusing vaccination may restrict your life in certain ways. In the same way that you’re not allowed to drive without a seatbelt, you may not be allowed to go to crowded areas without proof of vaccination.
We all have to accept responsibility for our actions and decisions. Expecting everyone else to dance to our tune is just not how the world works.
Expecting everyone else to dance to our tune is just not how the world works.
Bravo !
Pamplemousse
12-07-21, 22:22
In France how would mandated vaccines work they turn up at your door and they inject you on doorstep? Or strap you down? Can’t believe I have to ask this..
As you're not a French health worker - for whom this is being suggested - this is of no concern to you.
It can, and probably will, be mandated in order to be able to do certain jobs and go to certain places. That in no way, shape or form means that a team of muscly medics are going to turn up at your front door and drag you to the ground to vaccinate you.
I think you know this. I think you know you’re being over the top. Once again, you need to learn to accept the possibility that refusing vaccination may restrict your life in certain ways. In the same way that you’re not allowed to drive without a seatbelt, you may not be allowed to go to crowded areas without proof of vaccination.
We all have to accept responsibility for our actions and decisions. Expecting everyone else to dance to our tune is just not how the world works.
What settings mandated care homes? Any others?and restrict for how long? Big difference between a few years until the pandemic is under control or over vs 2050 still testing for an endemic virus which maybe even has a cure by then.
As you're not a French health worker - for whom this is being suggested - this is of no concern to you.
True I mean listen if this is short term fair enough. I think ID cards and over athauritarian governments is another issue. If say we don’t end face masks now we may never will. The risk can’t be zero very few people are dying of covid but at the same time the vaccine isn’t 100%. Do we shut down forever to protect a tiny minority who the vaccine doesn’t work for?
What settings mandated care homes? Any others?and restrict for how long? Big difference between a few years until the pandemic is under control or over vs 2050 still testing for an endemic virus which maybe even has a cure by then.
Phil, I don’t know. Again, you’re going to have to accept that refusing vaccination may restrict your life in certain ways. I don’t know what those ways are, I don’t know how long it’ll last and I don’t know why you can’t get your head around the fact that you’re just going to have to deal with the consequences if and when they come.
Phil, I don’t know. Again, you’re going to have to accept that refusing vaccination may restrict your life in certain ways. I don’t know what those ways are, I don’t know how long it’ll last and I don’t know why you can’t get your head around the fact that you’re just going to have to deal with the consequences if and when they come.
It sucks that we are in this situation. I mean we discussed it loads during the early days of the pandemic. I hope these are mostly scare stories and common sense is seen. I don’t want my wife forced to have a 2nd jab she had a reaction too. It’s very worrying all I can do is contact my MP. In no means am I selfish I feel sorry for anybody who is unvaccinated or maybe had a reaction and can’t have a second dose who will face unfair discrimination.
It sucks that we are in this situation. I mean we discussed it loads during the early days of the pandemic. I hope these are mostly scare stories and common sense is seen. I don’t want my wife forced to have a 2nd jab she had a reaction too. It’s very worrying all I can do is contact my MP. In no means am I selfish I feel sorry for anybody who is unvaccinated or maybe had a reaction and can’t have a second dose who will face unfair discrimination.
This thing with your wife, I need to ask again, how was it determined that the vaccine caused these stomach issues? What was causing the problem and how did they link it to the vaccine dose?
You seem to feel sorry for the unvaccinated few but less sorry for people who have been fully vaccinated but may need to endure higher risk due to folk refusing vaccination.
This thing with your wife, I need to ask again, how was it determined that the vaccine caused these stomach issues? What was causing the problem and how did they link it to the vaccine dose?
You seem to feel sorry for the unvaccinated few but less sorry for people who have been fully vaccinated but may need to endure higher risk due to folk refusing vaccination.
The doctor seen her in person and confirmed the vaccine caused the stomach irritation. She still has issues some days but she has not followed it up anymore as they issued medication. Your not at risk though the vaccine protects you. People have got covid from animals I am sure and also some people can’t be jabbed as they have allergies. We have such high vaccination in UK have you worked out what % would be if you come into touch with someone unvaccinated?
The doctor seen her in person and confirmed the vaccine caused the stomach irritation. She still has issues some days but she has not followed it up anymore as they issued medication. Your not at risk though the vaccine protects you. People have got covid from animals I am sure and also some people can’t be jabbed as they have allergies. We have such high vaccination in UK have you worked out what % would be if you come into touch with someone unvaccinated?
So if I’ve got you correct here, she has some treatable stomach irritation and they have determined that she shouldn’t have a second dose due to this? That doesn’t seem to be a good reason to advise avoiding a second dose. I’m sure that would only happen if there were a risk of a bad outcome. I would be interested to get the full story here but I’ll take your word for now, I guess.
Let me try and explain why non-vaccinated people pose a “risk” to those fully vaccinated. For one, 10-15% of those fully vaccinated won’t be protected against severe illness. A larger percentage will still be vulnerable to mild or asymptomatic infection. The more places the virus has to run, the more chance it has to mutate.
I guess I’m far more concerned with emerging variants, a sizeable proportion of the population still being vulnerable and outbreaks in places that host vulnerable people than I am with you and folk like you having the ability to do exactly what you want.
Pamplemousse
12-07-21, 23:10
True I mean listen if this is short term fair enough. I think ID cards and over athauritarian governments is another issue. If say we don’t end face masks now we may never will. The risk can’t be zero very few people are dying of covid but at the same time the vaccine isn’t 100%. Do we shut down forever to protect a tiny minority who the vaccine doesn’t work for?
It's a 'few' deaths at the moment - but modelling suggests that by late August, as restrictions are removed/ignored we could be looking at up to 200 deaths a day. How long that sort of level is sustained for afterwards is anyone's guess: we can only sit back and observe but what will NOT be happening any time soon is a return to the UK as it was on 31/12/19. For the foreseeable future at least that world is gone, never to return.
Your not at risk though the vaccine protects you
Phil, at least half a dozen times on this forum you have stated that 'people who have the vaccine can still get covid'. You change your argument to suit yourself.
Pamplemousse
12-07-21, 23:14
It is also worth noting what has happened in the Netherlands:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-57811538
MyNameIsTerry
13-07-21, 06:05
The doctor seen her in person and confirmed the vaccine caused the stomach irritation. She still has issues some days but she has not followed it up anymore as they issued medication. Your not at risk though the vaccine protects you. People have got covid from animals I am sure and also some people can’t be jabbed as they have allergies. We have such high vaccination in UK have you worked out what % would be if you come into touch with someone unvaccinated?
It might just be that a specific ingredient is the issue so she needs another one. With the newness of these vaccines a GP might not have enough information to determine which is best. It's worth following up though.
My GF can't have the regular flu jab due to an intolerance to certain ingredients so she has to wait longer each year for another.
MyNameIsTerry
13-07-21, 06:17
True I mean listen if this is short term fair enough. I think ID cards and over athauritarian governments is another issue. If say we don’t end face masks now we may never will. The risk can’t be zero very few people are dying of covid but at the same time the vaccine isn’t 100%. Do we shut down forever to protect a tiny minority who the vaccine doesn’t work for?
Don't we already protect minorities? Isn't that what a socially conscious country does?
We could turn into certain US states (apologies to US members) who put some invisible right of liberty higher than the right to life. Not just Covid either so stuff the Welfare State and stuff the poor, old, sick, etc.
Protecting vulnerable people is an addition of the many things we already do. But we aren't shutting down forever and I have to question how you are even coming to this conclusion when barely any lockdown measures are still in place in the UK. We are relatively free already.
And why do you care what France are doing? Our vaccination programme is more successful hence why they are having to go that route to protect people who prefer to go on living over someone else's opinions over vaccines.
Why do you entertain the possibility you will be held down against your will? Have you been reading about that Scottish care home by any chance? If so, don't apply it to anyone else because that is about criminal abuse. Unless you live in China you won't face this.
You are connecting all the wrong dots. It's catastrophizing.
spectrum123
13-07-21, 07:57
True I mean listen if this is short term fair enough. I think ID cards and over athauritarian governments is another issue. If say we don’t end face masks now we may never will. The risk can’t be zero very few people are dying of covid but at the same time the vaccine isn’t 100%. Do we shut down forever to protect a tiny minority who the vaccine doesn’t work for?
Over 100 countries have ID cards, including most of Europe, this includes probably one most liberal countries in the world the Netherlands, they don't seem to have much of an issue with it.
Pamplemousse
13-07-21, 08:48
My photo driving licence has proven to be a blessing for identification purposes (like when we used to collect parcels from the post office - remember that?) I really cannot see any sensible reason for objecting to ID cards other than some concept of "liberty".
I'd be cool with ID cards, no issue at all, very useful for 'proving identity' at all sorts of places - and yes, my PO get to see my driving licence still on a regular basis. ;)
My next prediction: we as a species will die by 2022. This virus is mutating far too quickly for us to handle.
Have you been reading scare stories from dubious sources online?
No, but from what I've seen, releasing the general public to do their own thing will lead to millions more needless deaths.
Pamplemousse
13-07-21, 11:59
I think "millions" is unlikely, even allowing for the bovine stupidity of most of the British public; but tens of thousands, yes.
My next prediction: we as a species will die by 2022. This virus is mutating far too quickly for us to handle.
Nahhh... the stats alone show that won't happen. Not to say, as you said, there will be many more deaths, but the vast majority recover. We have a weapon against the beast and hopefully people will take advantage of it.
FMP
Pamplemousse
13-07-21, 12:16
Nahhh... the stats alone show that won't happen. Not to say, as you said, there will be many more deaths, but the vast majority recover. We have a weapon against the beast and hopefully people will take advantage of it.
FMP
And yet, from a forum I was reading earlier:
I'm confused about someone I've been to recently. Perhaps they've been living under quite a large rock. Mixing round all the relatives watching the match, whilst feeling unwell and having no sense of taste or smell.
"Oh I didn't know I had to get a covid test"
Sadly, as was said earlier, the lack of common sense is an issue and probably the biggest threat we face.
FMP
No, but from what I've seen, releasing the general public to do their own thing will lead to millions more needless deaths.
I think you're over-catastrophising a bit there, Frank.
Whilst they have warned that in the absolute worst-case scenario that daily deaths might reach around 200 per day at the very most at some point over the coming weeks, it's still far lower than what we witnessed back in January and early Feb this year, and also back in April 2020 during the height of the first wave when during both periods daily deaths exceeded 1k per day.
Whilst I reiterate (before anyone pipes up) that one death is absolutely still one too many, a sense of perspective and context is extremely important.
Pamplemousse
13-07-21, 12:48
Sadly, as was said earlier, the lack of common sense is an issue and probably the biggest threat we face.
FMP
5386
Sadly, as was said earlier, the lack of common sense is an issue and probably the biggest threat we face.
FMP
A similar analogy being those who leave valuables unattended on full display in their vehicles, despite knowing full well the risks of thieves coming along, breaking into the vehicle and having it away with the valuable items concerned, and then saying 'it's not my fault', 'what's the world coming to today', etc
Whilst the thieves are absolutely in the wrong, it's the fools who don't
use their own heads by taking such risks who are just as much at fault, by not taking such basic common-sense precautions in advance, which means that their loss, damage and indeed inconvenience, could well have been avoided!
47% of today’s 48,000 cases had the vaccine. I think that rules out the Covid pass. May need to return to testing for all or learn to live with Covid.
Hasn't it always been that we've got to learn to live with it ultimately?
The vaccine reduces the severity of covid if you get it, that's a win in my eyes.
spectrum123
15-07-21, 20:46
47% of today’s 48,000 cases had the vaccine. I think that rules out the Covid pass. May need to return to testing for all or learn to live with Covid.
But they aren't the ones in hospital now. It's the young and unvaccinated, and whilst the young won't die, instead they are being left with permanent lung and kidney damage that will affect them for the rest of their lives.
Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 20:48
47% of today’s 48,000 cases had the vaccine. I think that rules out the Covid pass. May need to return to testing for all or learn to live with Covid.
All I would say here, Phil is:
1. Source of that data?
2. One jab or two?
All I would say here, Phil is:
1. Source of that data?
2. One jab or two?
Apologies the source is here https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9790999/Symptom-tracking-app-claims-number-people-falling-ill-virus-day-FALLEN.html
47% of today’s 48,000 cases had the vaccine. I think that rules out the Covid pass. May need to return to testing for all or learn to live with Covid.
As we go forward and more people have the vaccine, it’s inevitable that more vaccinated people will test positive as the vast majority of us have a vaccine. As pointed out above, it’s still very much the case that serious illness and hospitalisation is falling more so on those that aren’t fully vaccinated.
40 odd thousand cases per day, a few months ago, were resulting in over 1000 deaths per day. Now it’s still far below 100. Nice try, Phil, but I’m afraid your never ending march to discredit vaccines to justify your own decision is going to need a lot more than this.
I have to point out again, that whatever restrictions fall on you for not being vaccinated are a result of YOUR decision and hence, they are YOUR problem. The vaccine uptake is remarkable and the way it’s reducing the severity of this virus is bordering on a medical miracle. If you’re trying to discredit that because you personally don’t want one then you’re genuinely an arse of a person.
As we go forward and more people have the vaccine, it’s inevitable that more vaccinated people will test positive as the vast majority of us have a vaccine. As pointed out above, it’s still very much the case that serious illness and hospitalisation is falling more so on those that aren’t fully vaccinated.
40 odd thousand cases per day, a few months ago, were resulting in over 1000 deaths per day. Now it’s still far below 100. Nice try, Phil, but I’m afraid your never ending march to discredit vaccines to justify your own decision is going to need a lot more than this.
I have to point out again, that whatever restrictions fall on you for not being vaccinated are a result of YOUR decision and hence, they are YOUR problem. The vaccine uptake is remarkable and the way it’s reducing the severity of this virus is bordering on a medical miracle. If you’re trying to discredit that because you personally don’t want one then you’re genuinely an arse of a person.
I won’t go into a debate about how much they work or don’t work as I don’t personally have an opinion on it. Have I heard of double jabbed very ill with COVID yes. My point is I seen today a pub saying vaxed only people can come in. When 47% testing positive had these jabs that doesn’t make sense as he could end up with a fully vaxed pub having to close for isolation. I am sure you can’t disagree with that one.
Oh and I can confirm someone in his 50’s I know personally double jabbed got COVID bad just this week. Saying that as someone online tried to say it was people with one dose.
Yeah, right.
It’s someone in my wife’s family and I can say that for fact over 50 double jabbed very ill. Deny it all you want but I seen Politics for all tweeting Whitty wants us back in lockdown in 5 weeks. (tweet now been deleted by politics for all)
Good job link below https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-warns-england-could-24546061.amp
Pamplemousse
15-07-21, 22:50
Apologies the source is here https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9790999/Symptom-tracking-app-claims-number-people-falling-ill-virus-day-FALLEN.html
Thanks Phil.
The one bit in that article you have to note carefully is the following line:
But 47 per cent of cases are among those who have received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine
Now, this is the danger of selective quoting to fit an agenda - something the MSM loves to do: does it break down how many had just one dose, and how many had two?
This other quote intrigued me:
Professor Spector suggested this may be the case because the virus is 'running out' of un-vaccinated people to infect
I'm not quite sure what's being said here.
spectrum123
15-07-21, 22:56
It’s someone in my wife’s family and I can say that for fact over 50 double jabbed very ill. Deny it all you want but I seen Politics for all tweeting Whitty wants us back in lockdown in 5 weeks. (tweet now been deleted by politics for all)
Well if loads of vaccinated are walking round infected, freedom day which you've been hankering after is going to be a double edged sword for you, as your exposure to possible covid infected people massively increases as mask get ditched.
Do you work dealing with the public, indoors?
Well if loads of vaccinated are walking round infected, freedom day which you've been hankering after is going to be a double edged sword for you, as your exposure to possible covid infected people massively increases as mask get ditched.
Do you work dealing with the public, indoors?
I like to keep my 2m distance but I don’t mind if they have a mask on. In Scotland they will remain it seems anyway.
MyNameIsTerry
16-07-21, 00:47
Thanks Phil.
The one bit in that article you have to note carefully is the following line:
Now, this is the danger of selective quoting to fit an agenda - something the MSM loves to do: does it break down how many had just one dose, and how many had two?
This other quote intrigued me:
I'm not quite sure what's being said here.
Agreed. I think phil also needs to reread the article which clearly points out things like one jab still dramatically reduces chance of hospitalisation.
I would add to what you point out by asking when they were jabbed? How many are so recent as to not really be vaccinated?
I think Spector just means, looking at the graphs, it ran rampant among the unvaccinated and has ran out of people it therefore the steady upward trend of vaccinated who catch it are converging.
Spector also says it's reaching a plateau, phil. Have you been watching Scotland over the past week? Dramatic drops in some areas which back up Whitty's statement about how the virus is either doubling up or down.
Whitty doesn't say he wants a lockdown. He says if things get so bad it's the most sensible course of action then it would be prudent.
MyNameIsTerry
16-07-21, 00:54
Oh and I can confirm someone in his 50’s I know personally double jabbed got COVID bad just this week. Saying that as someone online tried to say it was people with one dose.
You have to look at the case. If someone having chemo gets any virus they are at great risk. Someone with respiratory conditions can have complications from even a basic chest infection.
Vaccines protect us but our existing conditions can complicate things and the more severe the more chance support is needed. We can see it is stopping most from needing that though. Don't look at it as black & white.
Agreed. I think phil also needs to reread the article which clearly points out things like one jab still dramatically reduces chance of hospitalisation.
I would add to what you point out by asking when they were jabbed? How many are so recent as to not really be vaccinated?
I think Spector just means, looking at the graphs, it ran rampant among the unvaccinated and has ran out of people it therefore the steady upward trend of vaccinated who catch it are converging.
Spector also says it's reaching a plateau, phil. Have you been watching Scotland over the past week? Dramatic drops in some areas which back up Whitty's statement about how the virus is either doubling up or down.
Whitty doesn't say he wants a lockdown. He says if things get so bad it's the most sensible course of action then it would be prudent.
I'm feeling rather confused by Tim Spector's claim that cases are plateauing right now, unlike the dashboard cases that rose by 48k yesterday.
And as far as Whitty's comments about lockdowns are concerned, I take it he's referring to them only as an absolute last resort.
Like I said in the other thread, only just a few months back the current case numbers would have meant an automatic national lockdown.
In fact, during the height of previous waves of the pandemic, we locked down with much less daily cases than right now!
I won’t go into a debate about how much they work or don’t work as I don’t personally have an opinion on it. Have I heard of double jabbed very ill with COVID yes. My point is I seen today a pub saying vaxed only people can come in. When 47% testing positive had these jabs that doesn’t make sense as he could end up with a fully vaxed pub having to close for isolation. I am sure you can’t disagree with that one.
My neighbour has COVID. She has had ONE jab and she looks rough as a badger's @rsehole but she hasn't been HOSPITALISED and that's the point. :shrug:
My neighbour has COVID. She has had ONE jab and she looks rough as a badger's @rsehole but she hasn't been HOSPITALISED and that's the point. :shrug:
I reckon that's where a lot of the current confusion lies, as it all seems to be such a mixed bag right now regarding the severity of current Covid infections.
Luckily, and no doubt thanks to the jabs, hospitalisations and deaths are currently way down vs cases compared to the first two waves, plus only a small minority who have received both jabs have slipped through the net so far.
It's a bit of a bummer that the pinging app can allegedly penetrate through party walls of neighbouring properties, which not only means that it's oversensitive (and indeed overengineered!), but people needlessly having to self-isolate due to not actually being in direct contact with infected persons.
False alarms galore!
elizabethalice
16-07-21, 08:49
I think another point with the covid pass is that while some people are still getting covid with the vaccine, they aren't spreading it nearly as much - especially to other vaccinated people. If you get a group of vaccinated people together and one of them has covid, the risk of the others catching it is very low. However, if an unvaccinated person in that group has it, the risk of them spreading it to others is higher.
I also would strongly advise against using the Mail as a reliable resource - they over dramatize everything and sometimes just publish fake news. As seen with this article, when most of that 47% of people had one vaccine (we know that you need two to have the best protection).
I'd like to know when GPs will be coming back to their surgeries for face to face consultations. Do they "reopen" or stay hidden behind their phones?
I'll admit that I'm having doubts about my level of protection from covid despite being double jabbed. I just feel that this delta variant is a different ballgame.
Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 10:45
If I remember rightly there was a piece in the New York Times a day or two ago suggesting that 'Delta' is more infectious but not more dangerous.
I'm not taking any chances with it.
Squishchips
16-07-21, 11:01
I also would strongly advise against using the Mail as a reliable resource - they over dramatize everything and sometimes just publish fake news. As seen with this article, when most of that 47% of people had one vaccine (we know that you need two to have the best protection).
Exactly this! Thank you for sharing that - I don't read the daily mail at all and seeing the other post about half being vaccinated was alarming.
I do wish there was a better breakdown of it all somewhere - people in hospital what jabs they got ages etc. Would be much easier to make sense of it all but I'm guessing they dont want this data released for whatever reason
Squishchips
16-07-21, 11:04
I'll admit that I'm having doubts about my level of protection from covid despite being double jabbed. I just feel that this delta variant is a different ballgame.
This is exactly how I'm feeling as well.
I spoke to my husband about it the other day as he's a lot more relaxed than me (despite being immune suppressed) - If delta hadn't come about, I think I would be still worried as I'm an anxious idiot but far more relaxed about it all and ready to go back into everyday life / go on holiday etc
This new variant has just changed everything. I'm worried not only about catching it now but also about further mutations given we're just letting it spread with no restrictions now
Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 11:54
I do wish there was a better breakdown of it all somewhere - people in hospital what jabs they got ages etc. Would be much easier to make sense of it all but I'm guessing they dont want this data released for whatever reason
Well, there's a start here on figures:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
This is exactly how I'm feeling as well.
I spoke to my husband about it the other day as he's a lot more relaxed than me (despite being immune suppressed) - If delta hadn't come about, I think I would be still worried as I'm an anxious idiot but far more relaxed about it all and ready to go back into everyday life / go on holiday etc
This new variant has just changed everything. I'm worried not only about catching it now but also about further mutations given we're just letting it spread with no restrictions now
I'm glad I'm not the only one to feel this. I'd like to be more optimistic but it's not a reassuring picture and it doesn't help that Chris Whitty made that statement last night.
Now we've got the beta variant in France on our doorsteps unless action is taken quickly. Hope that lessons will be learned from last time with India.
I'm glad I'm not the only one to feel this. I'd like to be more optimistic but it's not a reassuring picture and it doesn't help that Chris Whitty made that statement last night.
Now we've got the beta variant in France on our doorsteps unless action is taken quickly. Hope that lessons will be learned from last time with India.
If I know our govt they will probably end up being caught napping once again like they were with Delta back in April.
I could be wrong though.
MyNameIsTerry
16-07-21, 16:02
I'm feeling rather confused by Tim Spector's claim that cases are plateauing right now, unlike the dashboard cases that rose by 48k yesterday.
And as far as Whitty's comments about lockdowns are concerned, I take it he's referring to them only as an absolute last resort.
Like I said in the other thread, only just a few months back the current case numbers would have meant an automatic national lockdown.
In fact, during the height of previous waves of the pandemic, we locked down with much less daily cases than right now!
If you look at the whole, it's all going up. If you look more locally you can see plateaus and sharp drops post peak. Whitty said it either doubling up or down.
Yes, the very article phil linked showed Whitty saying it was only if it gets to the point of causing problems with overwhelming the NHS.
MyNameIsTerry
16-07-21, 16:05
I'd like to know when GPs will be coming back to their surgeries for face to face consultations. Do they "reopen" or stay hidden behind their phones?
Mine sent me a text weeks ago explaining their 'new normal'. Now receptionists can even more nosy and uncooperative.
I don't think GP's will go back to normal for a very long time. I think they like less face to face contact.
In my job there has to be face to face contact, but that's what I like about my job. Although when/if that goes back to normal is anybody's guess.
I met my stepdad in town before for a coffee. We sat outside Costas under a brolly. When I was in there I asked how things would be changing for them. They said there would be no social distancing, all the tables would be reinstated and masks aren't compulsory. I don't know. Workwise I'll still have to wear one and I don't think I'm ready to stop in supermarkets, in fact anywhere where there is a lot of people and reduced space.
Funny story from last summer (well I think it's funny), a friend of mine got contacted to go for a smear and they were doing the wait in the car park until you were telephoned to go in. Well my friend was dutifully waiting and the nurse phoned her and said 'hello Mrs blahblah, don't worry about coming into the building, I'll come out to you'. After spluttering a bit my friend explained it wouldn't be appropriate for a smear, of course the nurse had thought she was there for a jab.
Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 16:39
Mine sent me a text weeks ago explaining their 'new normal'. Now receptionists can even more nosy and uncooperative.
I'm fairly certain those human junkyard dogs are now doing the triage...
I'd like to know when GPs will be coming back to their surgeries for face to face consultations. Do they "reopen" or stay hidden behind their phones?
My daughter got a face to face appointment this week. We were the only people in the waiting room. It was very odd.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Funny story from last summer (well I think it's funny), a friend of mine got contacted to go for a smear and they were doing the wait in the car park until you were telephoned to go in. Well my friend was dutifully waiting and the nurse phoned her and said 'hello Mrs blahblah, don't worry about coming into the building, I'll come out to you'. After spluttering a bit my friend explained it wouldn't be appropriate for a smear, of course the nurse had thought she was there for a jab.
Blimey...Let's hope it doesn't come to that in the future?!:blush: Could cause all sorts of scrapes for the NHS.....
I'm fairly certain those human junkyard dogs are now doing the triage...
Didn't they always..until you ask them a probing question and they plead ignorance "because they are not medically trained" so b*gger off..
I hate this system! A woman that lives behind me is a receptionist at my GP practice. Which of course means I sometimes have to tell her what's wrong with me, which is horrible. Oh and then there's another one that I know the mother of. Small town life has its disadvantages.
They act as "gatekeepers" to the precious GPs and don't they know it..Some really enjoy that "power" whereas others are decent and sensitive to patient anxiety.
Huge potential for gossip lovers though..I don't envy you, Catkins.
They act as "gatekeepers" to the precious GPs and don't they know it..Some really enjoy that "power" whereas others are decent and sensitive to patient anxiety.
Huge potential for gossip lovers though..I don't envy you, Catkins.
It isn't ideal. There's one other GP practice but it would be the same there.
I drew the line at someone who's drinking buddies with a friend of mine changing my coil. I had awful visions of them discussing my cervix over a glass of prosecco! I asked if someone else could do it.
The worst of it is that that both GP's are based in the same building that I work in. Fortunately there isn't too much mixing and I have to have faith that they stick to patient confidentiality.
It isn't ideal. There's one other GP practice but it would be the same there.
I drew the line at someone who's drinking buddies with a friend of mine changing my coil. I had awful visions of them discussing my cervix over a glass of prosecco! I asked if someone else could do it.
The worst of it is that that both GP's are based in the same building that I work in. Fortunately there isn't too much mixing and I have to have faith that they stick to patient confidentiality.
I'm sure they do.
I'm glad I'm not the only one to feel this. I'd like to be more optimistic but it's not a reassuring picture and it doesn't help that Chris Whitty made that statement last night.
Now we've got the beta variant in France on our doorsteps unless action is taken quickly. Hope that lessons will be learned from last time with India.
Non quarantine holidays in France are now not happening. France has become an "amber plus"/ "light red" listed country. Nearly crimson red but still with a tomato hue. Make it red tout de suite, Boris or else we'll have more merde being brought back to Blighty?
Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 20:55
Non quarantine holidays in France are now not happening. France has become an "amber plus"/ "light red" listed country. Nearly crimson red but still with a tomato hue. Make it red tout de suite, Boris or else we'll have more merde being brought back to Blighty?
https://scontent.flhr3-3.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.6435-9/187488965_331207815028539_1360458165419723508_n.jp g?_nc_cat=105&ccb=1-3&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=5GMjT_31iucAX82IQKT&_nc_ht=scontent.flhr3-3.fna&oh=f38de29027106f624d1d6a19845df84f&oe=60F63D50
Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 21:03
They act as "gatekeepers" to the precious GPs and don't they know it..Some really enjoy that "power" whereas others are decent and sensitive to patient anxiety.
Huge potential for gossip lovers though..I don't envy you, Catkins.
Yes, we've got both extremes at my practice. I suspect the helpful one's been sacked by now.
Pater Johnson will have his hopes dashed for a holiday in Bulgaria...Maybe Boris can negotiate a cyan and teal deal for Stanley?
Pamplemousse
16-07-21, 21:08
Pater Johnson will have his hopes dashed for a holiday in Bulgaria...
I'm more thinking this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KTsXHXMkJA
(One of my fave punk tracks, ever)
Non quarantine holidays in France are now not happening. France has become an "amber plus"/ "light red" listed country. Nearly crimson red but still with a tomato hue. Make it red tout de suite, Boris or else we'll have more merde being brought back to Blighty?
Well that's a turn up for the books Pulisa. Yesterday when the Beta alert in France very first came to our attention, I was half expecting Bozzer and Co to be blasé about it all as per usual like with India and the Delta variant back in the early spring of this year (which we're sadly paying the price for right now), and of course to be siding more with the travel industry, rather than putting our health first.
Which still begs the question, is non-essential international travel the 'be-all-and-end-all' of society today?
Apparently this has "ruined" Summer for many holidaymakers...They were warned though..Book a holiday abroad at your peril so no point whingeing. Lets keep the UK as safe as we can to be able to go back to being able to enjoy things here in the UK. The only people who truly pay the penalty are those with family abroad. Holidays are a luxury.
Pamplemousse
17-07-21, 13:36
Yet today, France is saying if you've had both jabs you can freely travel from the UK...
Returning locally, the local butcher/deli will be asking customers to remain masked in the shop from Monday. Can't enforce it of course, but they can see it's madness and I suspect they won't be alone. I think we may just find that retailers at least will be more sensible than that scruffy oaf we call a PM.
Sajid Javid has got covid!
Pamplemousse
17-07-21, 13:58
Yesterday when the Beta alert in France very first came to our attention
Which, according to some sources, is not prevalent in mainland France but is circulating in French territories...
Pamplemousse
17-07-21, 13:59
Sajid Javid has got covid!
Must... not... laugh...
Great excuse for a no show on "Freedom" Day. They will all be hiding away and SJ will be under tremendous pressure to recover quickly and avoid hospital at all costs. His symptoms will be officially "mild" come what may.
Pamplemousse
17-07-21, 14:42
Great excuse for a no show on "Freedom" Day. They will all be hiding away and SJ will be under tremendous pressure to recover quickly and avoid hospital at all costs. His symptoms will be officially "mild" come what may.
I'll believe this shower when I see pictures like this again:
https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/global/assets2/parliament2/interior/commons-chamber/pa-commons-chamber.jpg
I have a horrible feeling that national lockdown #4 could soon be on the horizon, especially now Javid has caught Covid, despite him being double jabbed, plus someone I know attended last Sunday's Euro final at Wembley and has now unfortunately succumbed to Covid, again despite him being double jabbed.
I reckon Delta mighy be far more resistant to the vaccines than we're being told, plus I can smell a possible cover-up.
Jeremy Hunt has already been hinting at restrictions being reimposed in the autumn, plus the daily cases over the past few days have shown a near-vertical upswing.
So much for Tim Spector saying cases have plateaued the other day, what BS!
Sorry for the rant, but I seriously despair with people in this country at times!
Pamplemousse
17-07-21, 16:51
Jeremy Hunt has already been hinting at restrictions being reimposed in the autumn, plus the daily cases over the past few days have shown a near-vertical upswing.
This is what we mean by "exponential growth" - I wish more people in this country understood the difference between linear and logarithmic progressions.
This is what we mean by "exponential growth" - I wish more people in this country understood the difference between linear and logarithmic progressions.
You're not kidding PM.
I seriously wonder what Tim Spector and Co have been playing at this week, as like I already said upthread, he proclaimed on Thursday that UK Covid cases are plateauing, and the ZOE site stats show only about 31k cases today, unlike the dashboard which shows 54k cases.
Seriously all of those at ZOE must have been kipping under a rock these past few days!
You're not kidding PM.
I seriously wonder what Tim Spector and Co have been playing at this week, as like I already said upthread, he proclaimed on Thursday that UK Covid cases are plateauing, and the ZOE site stats show only about 31k cases today, unlike the dashboard which shows 54k cases.
Seriously all of those at ZOE must have been kipping under a rock these past few days!
Probably very wise...Just hope they were all practising social distancing whilst sleeping under said rock...:winks:
You're not kidding PM.
I seriously wonder what Tim Spector and Co have been playing at this week, as like I already said upthread, he proclaimed on Thursday that UK Covid cases are plateauing, and the ZOE site stats show only about 31k cases today, unlike the dashboard which shows 54k cases.
Seriously all of those at ZOE must have been kipping under a rock these past few days!
Spector and the ZOE folks aren't the only ones living under a rock right now.
Surely Boris claimed on the live rolling page on the BBC website on Thursday that we're over the worst of this pandemic in the UK, then contradicted himself later by saying this pandemic is 'far from over'!
Another fool who is totally delusional, even at the best of times!!
A festival in Holland was COVID secure 1,000 tested positive despite fully jabbed and testing. Also our health secretary has tested positive so it seems passes would not just discriminate but create a false sense of security for those who are jabbed.
Also they are saying a second lockdown in September so what’s your thoughts Terry and Gary? I thought vaccines were the way out but the double jabbed are testing positive. Australia is talking about a in out lockdown where they open up lockdown open up lockdown. Seems this may happen here too. The jab seems to have had an effect but only small it keeps many people out of hospital but not enough as hospitals are over run with jabbed people which means the jabs will need improved.
All this jab avoiding quarantine what a lot of crap. I wonder if that’s why France now double jabbed have to isolate. I hope this means COVID passport scheme has died and also skipping quarantine if jabbed as these measures would risk the virus spreading further.
You're not kidding PM.
I seriously wonder what Tim Spector and Co have been playing at this week, as like I already said upthread, he proclaimed on Thursday that UK Covid cases are plateauing, and the ZOE site stats show only about 31k cases today, unlike the dashboard which shows 54k cases.
Seriously all of those at ZOE must have been kipping under a rock these past few days!
What worries me is in Scotland cases are falling but we may lockdown if we go with a national approach. It’s 50/50 isn’t it Sturgeon skipped lockdown 2.0 but i fear we may see cases fall and fall but could be plunged into a lockdown due to England and the open border?
What worries me is in Scotland cases are falling but we may lockdown if we go with a national approach. It’s 50/50 isn’t it Sturgeon skipped lockdown 2.0 but i fear we may see cases fall and fall but could be plunged into a lockdown due to England and the open border"?" (notice the reassurance pattern?)
You can always get vaxxed and help yourself and others :shrug:
FMP
You can always get vaxxed and help yourself and others :shrug:
FMP
Worked well for UK Heath secretary double jabbed tested positive and half the cabinet pinged and have to isolate. UK is in crisis.
Could this be the reason double jabbed are still getting infected?
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210604/pfizer-vaccine-india-variant
Could this be the reason double jabbed are still getting infected?
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210604/pfizer-vaccine-india-variant
Maybe but seemingly our health minister had the AZ Oxford one I think.
Worked well for UK Heath secretary double jabbed tested positive and half the cabinet pinged and have to isolate. UK is in crisis.
Better to have the jab, have 90+% protection and survive than die. The vast majority of hospitalized cases and deaths are among the unvaxxed :whistles:
I think it's time you stopped this nonsense, make a decision and live (or not) with it and stop bitching :whistles:
FMP
MyNameIsTerry
18-07-21, 06:36
What worries me is in Scotland cases are falling but we may lockdown if we go with a national approach. It’s 50/50 isn’t it Sturgeon skipped lockdown 2.0 but i fear we may see cases fall and fall but could be plunged into a lockdown due to England and the open border?
I don't think lockdowns are justifiable where it is under control. Business, and the economy, can't take it forever.
Scotland is seeing major decreases now so many areas are over their peaks. Edinburgh, Glasgow, Fife, Dundee, etc. All going down as fast as it went up.
This is why Spector most likely said this. National trend does not reflect everywhere and that's because areas are being hit at different times so have to pass through their cycles at different times. So if we go back to last year we had local lockdowns which are justifiable. You can't shut Exeter if they have 5 positive cases just because there is a spike in Sunderland.
Vaccination is the way out. The only way out. Unless you want to go for herd immunity or living in constant lockdowns. Australia have problems with rollout and France have a higher number of sceptics. Don't compare them to us because each country is different and their supply lines and economies just aren't the same.
But vaccination was never 100%. It's still early days for vaccines and better ones may come along in years to come. They are still learning about this virus and countering it's mutations.
You've got to be very careful in examining the double jabbed and we've said this to you before. Show me a case study breakdown of all the deaths. How do I know there aren't 90% chemo patients in there, 2% AIDS, 3% some other immunosuppressive disorders and the rest may be over 100 years old. Some clinically vulnerable can be seriously ill and die from catching colds. How do we know Covid was why? We know they had it but for all we know they could have been seriously ill in hospital and died from any number of complications.
Yes, around nearly half (47% jabbed was it?) had been jabbed. PM asked 1st or 2nd? I asked yesterday or 3 weeks ago? This 47% could be full of dirty data. What if 20% of them had their first jab yesterday? So not really vaccinated yet? Have these people been eliminated from the numbers? I can't say I've heard they have and so we have got rolled up figures with no understanding of what they mean.
So how can you say vaccination doesn't work? For all we know that 47% ends up a few % once proper analysis has concluded.
The same with 2nd jabbed. 2nd jabbed when? Yesterday? And with what as fishman has posed above.
And don't forget it's death with 28 days. Covid? Have they stopped counting blatantly false cases in this pot?
I won't rule out lockdowns. I'm listening to Whitty. It's common sense. If a new variant comes along that current vaccination doesn't work for then the game changes. Boosters are obvious as we don't know long term so it's prudent to carry on protecting those most vulnerable rather than get cheap and risk going back to square one. I don't see how what he said is any different to other situations where strategies change. A hospital won't want to do xyz but doesn't rule out a change in circumstance that forces a policy change.
Not read about Holland yet so no idea on that. But remember vaccination isn't 100% so 40k footie fans jumping on each other for an afternoon is bound to give the virus a better chance to transmit.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.