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View Full Version : In these United States :-(


NancyW
30-12-21, 11:41
+431,567 new cases yesterday

Oh my God.

With all of the rapid tests out there that no one is tracking, how many are there really? A million?

So with 329.5 million people in the US, how long will it take to blow through?
Pamplemousse
30-12-21, 13:28
Does that figure arise from results not being available over the holiday period and is thus cumulative? These sort of things tend to follow a Gaussian distribution and my maths isn't up to that standard. If they become available after they've been shown on the BBC (assuming you can't get BBC shows via a VPN or something), it's worth looking at this year's Royal Institution Christmas Lectures as they're all about Covid and how it spreads - one of the guests that explained the maths was Professor Julia Gog, whose biography reads thus:


Prof. Julia Gog OBE is Professor of Mathematical Biology at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge and the David N. Moore Fellow and Director of Studies in Mathematics at Queens' College, Cambridge. Julia is a specialist in modelling the spread and evolution of infectious diseases, particularly influenza and Covid-19. During the pandemic she has contributed to scientific advice to the UK government through Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and SPI-M, the group which provides input based on infectious disease modelling and epidemiology.

In 2020 Julia was awarded the Royal Society’s Rosalind Franklin prize, honorary membership of the Mathematical Association and an OBE for services to academia and the Covid-19 response.



Thing is... people are now getting infected more than once as Omicron is sufficiently different to Covid-19 v1.0... and you have an even bigger problem with vaccine resistance than we do.
NancyW
31-12-21, 01:59
No, and we are at 486,000 today. :-(
Pamplemousse
31-12-21, 11:40
No, and we are at 486,000 today. :-(

Oh Good Lord, Nancy... :ohmy: Worldometer has your new case count at 572,000?

Here in the UK, the government and the NHS publish detailed breakdowns of hospital admissions, vaccination status and all manner of things; does the CDC do anything similar in the US, because that might give a better picture of what's happening? You have 3x the cases cf. the UK, but 4x the deaths. However, you have 5x the population.
Lencoboy
31-12-21, 12:09
Oh Good Lord, Nancy... :ohmy: Worldometer has your new case count at 572,000?

Here in the UK, the government and the NHS publish detailed breakdowns of hospital admissions, vaccination status and all manner of things; does the CDC do anything similar in the US, because that might give a better picture of what's happening? You have 3x the cases cf. the UK, but 4x the deaths. However, you have 5x the population.

Hence the reason why direct like-for-like comparison is not really practicable.
NancyW
31-12-21, 12:14
There are numbers and breakdowns everywhere, they are all bad. The cdc just changed the isolation and quarentine rules.

Covid positive, isolate for 5 days only, wear a mask for the next 5 days. With so many cases, we can't be out for 10 days. New York has 30% of their firefighters out, this creates a different type of safety issue.

I'm a nervous wreck :-(
Pamplemousse
31-12-21, 12:23
There are numbers and breakdowns everywhere, they are all bad. The cdc just changed the isolation and quarentine rules.

Covid positive, isolate for 5 days only, wear a mask for the next 5 days. With so many cases, we can't be out for 10 days. New York has 30% of their firefighters out, this creates a different type of safety issue.

I'm a nervous wreck :-(

We've got large numbers out in the NHS too.
NancyW
31-12-21, 12:48
Have they changed you quarentine and isolation rules?
Scass
31-12-21, 17:26
They have changed it to release on day 7 if you test negative on a lateral flow on day 6 and 7. The problem is we are running very short of lateral flow tests.

Hope you’re ok Nancy, I know it’s a worrying time for everyone. Keep the news off, not watching it won’t change it x


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NancyW
31-12-21, 22:18
Thank you Scass, you're right its time again to stay away from the news. Not sure if you ever watch Dr John Campbell's videos but yesterday and today were positive and gave me hope.
Scass
01-01-22, 15:06
Thank you Scass, you're right its time again to stay away from the news. Not sure if you ever watch Dr John Campbell's videos but yesterday and today were positive and gave me hope.

I tend to try and ignore most covid things really, but I do feel that we’ve been made to fear this SO much that it’s hard to switch off the anxiety.


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NancyW
01-01-22, 16:02
This helped me today.. its not who's doing what to fool and scare us, its viral education. SO good!

Watch "Virology in Iran" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/hC44g4-YHMA