Is this statement true?

[Toby2000]

Hi,

I was just wondering if this statement is true or not:

"Every 1 in 5 people will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives."

Thanks
Toby

[Fishmanpa]

Having had cancer, there is a fact that stands out more than any statistic. "Everyone is different".

If I believed the stats concerning the cancer I had, I shouldn't be here. I will add that your post will only fuel the fears of many on the board. "What Ifs" are the enemy of the HA sufferer.

Positive thoughts

[Emilym80]

It might be true but that's probably a global average. In Australia, skin cancer is incredibly common because of the high levels of UV in the sun (or something like that). In Japan, stomach cancer is more common.

So you might be worrying because the statistics suggest that it's common (presumably) but remember that empirical evidence is often devoid of context. I imagine the stat is probably correct. I also know that it doesn't acknowledge many of the different factors that lead to the development of cancer. It's not with dwelling over

[Gary A]

What the statement doesn't include is the fact that the vast majority of cancers affect the elderly. That doesn't make it any better a statistic, of course, but that's the fact of the matter. It also doesn't state that there are very common forms of skin cancer that are actually relatively harmless, like squamous cell carcinoma. People can have that for decades and it very rarely spreads beyond the affected area. Some forms of prostate cancer can also be left virtually untreated in certain circumstances.

It's not a good statistic, but it's leaving out a few details. I must point out, as a poster above me has done also, that this type of statement does nothing to ease health anxiety one little bit.

[toffeeee]

If it is true it means that 4 out of 5 of us wont.

[Toby2000]

Thanks for the replies everyone

It's like getting 5 people from 5 different countries in the world and saying "One of you is getting cancer at some point!". I think it's a ridiculous statistic put out there to scare us into being more vigilant.

---------- Post added at 16:21 ---------- Previous post was at 16:19 ----------

If it is true it means that 4 out of 5 of us wont.

That's a good way of putting it. I feel sorry for the unlucky individual.

---------- Post added at 16:23 ---------- Previous post was at 16:21 ----------

Having had cancer, there is a fact that stands out more than any statistic. "Everyone is different".

If I believed the stats concerning the cancer I had, I shouldn't be here. I will add that your post will only fuel the fears of many on the board. "What Ifs" are the enemy of the HA sufferer.

Positive thoughts

Sorry to hear that you had cancer, I'm glad you're okay now! If you don't mind me asking, how advanced was your cancer? Sorry if I'm being rude.

I hate the "What ifs" but we have to live with them I guess :(

[Fishmanpa]

"If you don't mind me asking, how advanced was your cancer?"

SCC Tx N2b MO Stage IV HPV+ Simply put.... Baaaaad!

Positive thoughts

[Alice1]

Definitely don't trust statistics like this. Often the media makes things up. There is no way this has been tested, especially as not everyone is yet dead.obviously its an indication but seriously don't pay attention to this type of thing. Like university league table, useful to someone, meaningless to the majority.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Hi Toby,

Nope, thats that true. NHS England have it at a different figure in January.

I agree with FMP/Gary on this, some people will find this triggering and on that basis I am not going to post the actual 1 in X figure. I was wary of posting on this last night until some of you HA guys & girls posted on this basis and I hope what I write below isn't a trigger for anyone else but if it is please tell me what to edit out and will do it as soon as I can.

I don't know why you have asked this but if your HA is flaring up, I would address that as opposed to researching things like this. If you are ok and this is just an interest then I will tell you how to find the correct information or give you a link, but only if you state you are ok.

I realise you are only young and I don't think you would ever do or say anything that could effect others but its just something for next time.

You have to question statistics. Part of my career was analysis & statistics and figures like this are just meaningless headlines that are given out to external customers. Internally no one would care about these figures because the first question would be "that doesn't tell me anything, why is it 1 in 5, who does that affect most & why?". I'm sure CPE1978 as a manager in the NHS can attest to that or maybe the nurses that we have on here?

I was always taught in my A level economics about the use of "bad statistics" and the examples were often of the the ones you see on TV by news reports and definately those on political broadcasts as they are often missing some crucial standard elements eg. a graph thats just 2 axis and a squiggly line or some numbers!

My dad had a form of skin cancer a few years back. The specialist said "it is classified as a cancer but in reality it never progresses so it 100% treatable". He will be in their figures. The specialist also said it is very common due to specific trades and long term work in them. Again, lets remember 100% recovery in all cases. They just remove it under a local and patch it up and you are off home in a couple of hours. He also said there is no chance of any recurrence as long as they remove it all successfully via a standard easy operation.

So, how many people like my dad are in the figures which generate these "1 in X" predictions?

Then you have like Gary said, at risk age groups. My nan had colon cancer in her mid seventies and we are talking about 30 years ago so imagine how poor treatment was back then! She recovered 100% and died of natural causes some years later. She never had any later complications from her op. So, age is a factor but for those reading this, its not the be all & end all as I'm sure FMP can tell you far better than I ever could. (I'm not saying you are old FMP! Just that you know this stuff from your time in it and on those support forums you've talked about)

What about those that have a higher risk? Take smoking for instance. It may be "1 in X" but some people are more likely to be at risk due to health factors that our healthcare authorities are telling us about (lets ignore the newspaper though, at some point they will be reporting that simply buying their newspaper causes it! )

Also, think about other statistics. Think about births. Ever heard of the channel 4 programme "One born every minute"? There is a reason its called that. But I can't see women all down my street rushing out to the hospital. I've worked in large offices with 1000+ staff with only a handful of women on maternity for months on end.

The same for death rates.

You also have to consider that its "1 in X in a their lifetime". Not at this time or any other time, so naturally some times (using your 1 in 5 example) it could be 1 in 25, or maybe 1 in 100. Do you see what I mean? Its not a fixed value, its why its classed as a 'variable'.

So, do you see how statistics can be misleading?

[cpe1978]

I think the problem is that we are simple folk really when it comes to things. There are varying statistics around, and I think the point above about Cancer being a disease of the elderly is spot on. We ultimately have to die of something, and I think you would find a similar stat for coronary heart disease. The headline stats are a frustration in so many ways as they hide the real picture.

Take the claim that we should eat five fruit or veg a day. To my knowledge there is little or no evidence to suggest that five is the ideal number. It is a headline grabber that balances the fact that it is better for us to eat more fruit and veg and five a day is just about achieveable. Similarly the 5x30 exercise recommendation.

As far as Cancer is concerned I believe they estimate that upwards of 40% of Cancer is avoidable. So if you exercise regularly, don't smoke and eat a relatively healthy diet then you will do yourself a lot of favours.

FMP is of course right, everyone is different. Some families seem to have lots of cancer, others not so much. Take mine for example, in my entire family I only know of my grandma having bladder cancer in her mid 80s and my dad had renal cancer in his thirties. Both are still alive incidentally. But as a male in my family I certainly need to watch my heart!

Using stats as a means of reassurance is like any other.....temporary. You are much better living a good and healthy life and the law of averages would say that good health will most likely follow you into old age.