the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

It feels like this deal might go through but some feel he messed up not pushing on with the vote on Saturday as now the slippery snakes will create more obstacles this week. That does make sense. The whole Labour CU thing might re-raise it's head and Corbyn will want to add the protections back in that May gave into. Then we have the 2nd referendum which they plan on trying.

Yep, back to March we go again. Labour now trying to get the CU back on which May refused:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...cid=spartanntp

Will it get enough votes? It was slim last time under Clarke but I think they are missing that May's deal was in play and many Tories hated that too.

This is all short sighted to me anyway. They could introduce a CU in the FTA stage. Labour might even be in power via a GE when that is being discussed so can take over the talks. But sadly it's back to infighting.

At the end of the transition period unless we have a FTA we enter No Deal really with the exception of the bits in the WA. It seems the fear is this is all that will happen but this is years away and the EU won't mind extending that anyway as they take a long time discussing their own trade deals. There is nothing stopping the introduction of a CU proposal within the transition period to mitigate against the eventual No Deal we would end up with (since nothing changes during the transition period). Also those years need to be spent sorting out any association agreements with EU agencies that cover medicine, licensing, flight, security, etc which could surely be done as a separate exercise by a dedicated team?

But no, we are back to trying to stay in the EU as much as possible and all votes potentially failing. If this amendment passes then we will likely end up in a GE as the government won't want it. I expect to see Labour then trying to refuse that in favour of a 3nd referendum because they will fear losing a GE considering their ratings are consistently poor in polling.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Here is The Guardian's summary of the new WAB. It includes workers rights and working with the EU on climate change as part of a FTA. It enshrines all EU law post transition phase with a non regression clause on worker's rights. I wonder if Labour could point out where this means a race to the bottom for worker's rights and the environment? The WTD is kept in this. It feels like it's BS and just about wanting a CU instead...which doesn't come with these things so they would have to negotiate them separately (or perhaps trust in UK law ). The future FTA seeks to reduce tariffs to zero with unlimited quotas. I thought this was supposed to be a terrible deal? : https://www.theguardian.com/politics...l-actually-say

[MyNameIsTerry]

An interesting week in Parliament.

The Lewtin amendment effectively scuppered a proper vote but it did firm up a potential gap so not all bad. It would have been nice to know how MP's would vote on the new deal though. Today we have seen that as it passed 329-299 at 2nd vote stage. The next vote for the timetable failed 322-308 so Boris has put it on hold whilst they obviously look at another timetable and talk to the EU about the extension. It has been mentioned the UK might attach a get-out clause should the WAB be enacted. The PM has also said he would call a GE if the extension just led to watering down and endless squabbling as it has in the past.

At least we can see something. To be fair it might include votes by those who kicked the can down the road intended to craft it into something else through amendments at Committee Stage or perhaps to scupper it completely.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, expressed the EU’s relief that the Brexit deal had received MPs’ concern in a vote on the second reading.
He said: “It’s welcome that the House of Commons voted by a clear majority in favour of legislation needed to enact the withdrawal agreement. We will now await further developments from London and Brussels about next steps including the timetable for the legislation and the need for an extension.”

So, the Irish PM is happy to see it moving forward. The Remainers in Parliament might hate it but perhaps they should listen more to Varadkar and less to the DUP?

Boris did mentioned, to a question by a Labour MP, that trade NI-GB would be frictionless. I can't see how that is possible. We might accept it into GB (WTO rules might contravene this anyway, would have to check on that) but the NI seaports will now become zones for EU officials to ensure the integrity of the SM. BG firms exporting into NI will have to satisfy any paperwork to achieve that in the same way they would from Dover.

Interesting piece here from one of the most anti Brexit newspapers we have, the FT, showing their analysis of how voting may go:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...cid=spartanntp

The greatest threat is an amendment forcing the UK to enter a customs union with the EU after Brexit. Last time the issue was voted on by MPs, during a series of indicative votes attempting to break the Brexit impasse back in April, it failed to pass by a slim margin of three.
Since then, however, a significant number of Conservative MPs have changed their minds and are rallying behind Mr Johnson’s deal. This is particularly notable in the one nation group of moderate Tories, whose members do not wish to stop Brexit even if in private they might prefer a customs union.Paul Masterton, a one-nation Tory MP, explained the circumstances for voting had changed. “We now have a new deal and MPs need a clean vote on whether or not to approve it. These amendments are designed to wreck the progress that has been made,” he said.

All parties opposed to Brexit are likely to vote for the customs union amendment to wreck Mr Johnson’s deal, except the Scottish National party whose 35 MPs are expected to abstain or vote against in order to state their fundamental opposition to Brexit.Northern Ireland’s Democractic Unionist party has not yet decided how to vote. If the SNP and the DUP’s 10 Westminster MPs vote against, the customs union amendment would fail by 89 votes. If both abstain it would fail by 44.

That would be interesting. We are back into this "what CU is it?" issue with Labour. Will it be the EUCU, one of the other off the peg ones like the Tukey CU or Corbyn's MacGuffin with the added say in future trade deals? Maybe the EU would slip on that since they have shifted towards us for this WAB? But it's dodgy as it rakes up issues with an already unhappy Turkey. They might find the likes of San Moreno and Andorra asking questions too?

I expect this amendment will just be another slippery wording thing with Corbyn refusing to be nailed to something concrete.

A CU could also become part of the FTA stage. It would be better suited here in my opinion. This could mean Labour getting in via a GE are pushing for it or just trying for it through later amendments and tabled motions. This would cloud the WAB just as it would have May's if she had agreed to it in the failed cross-party talks after her WA failed in votes. And now the front bench are more willing to stand up than give in, although at times it feels like they give it to some things easily, I can't see Starmer having an easy ride on this one as he did against May's team.

Another part of the analysis was on the 2nd referendum amendment:

The other amendment that will challenge the government is to put the deal to a confirmatory referendum, presumably against the option of remaining in the EU. Last time a second plebiscite was voted on by MPs, it lost by a majority of nine.

The FT’s analysis suggests a repeat vote could fail to pass by as many as 41, as the politics in parliament has shifted significantly. Although 20 or so Labour MPs appear willing to support another referendum, there are at least 19 Labour MPs who are still expected to vote against it.The number of Conservative MPs supporting a second referendum has also dropped significantly (to zero) since the April indicative votes. Were any Tories to back this amendment, they would be kicked out of the party.Some independent Conservatives — the majority of whom lost the Tory whip for voting against the government to avert a no-deal Brexit in September — are eager to rejoin their old party and are therefore likely to vote against another referendum. One prominent member of this group predicted “most but not all” would vote with the government. Three are likely to back a referendum: Guto Bebb, Justine Greening and Dominic Grieve.The DUP has said its MPs also expect to say no to a second referendum amendment. It is therefore difficult to see how this amendment could find a majority, even if more independent Conservatives changed their minds.

That's very interesting. Who's bums will be the squeakiest now? Tory or Labour?

Parliament should have more time to digest the WAB and the usual 21 days for international treaties should be enough. But you just know they will want months beyond that to frustrate the process into oblivion as they have before.

[MyNameIsTerry]

A truly depressing poll revealing how many people, Leave or Remain, think violence to get their way is an option

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

The survey was based on polling by YouGov which found 71% of Leave voters in England, 60% in Scotland and 70% in Wales thought violence against MPs was a "price worth paying" for Brexit.Of Remain voters, 58% in England, 53% in Scotland and 56% in Wales thought it was worth it to stay in the EU.The survey's co-director Professor Richard Wyn Jones said he was "genuinely shocked" at the findings.

Those responding to the poll were also fine with seeing members of the public hurt. On both sides, people said protests in which some were "badly injured" would be a "price worth paying".
Among Leavers, it was 69% in England, 62% in Scotland and 70% in Wales. On the Remain side, it was 57% in England, 56% in Scotland and 57% in Wales.

Crazy

[lebonvin]

Welcome home Lord Pain. Poor Terry been talking with himself these past few days.

So you violent Brits back at your antics huh. Us yanks take the cookie for murders cozza guns but you Brits take the biscuit for mindless violence cozza your history of footpads and press gangs and slave traders.

Personally I'd love to rip the head offa a MP. Just loving that word. I'm talking about military police lol.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to them statistic. Folk is angry and say shit in polls they wouldn't do in real life.

50 bucks and a nut says Lady Pulisa won't react to this.

From a bitter miserable yank

[MyNameIsTerry]

Charlie, that's an important point - people are all Billy Big B0ll0ocks online or on the phone or driving past you at 50mph. Confronted with it, they shrivel up.

Don't forget our hooliganism. British footbal thugs led the way for decades

[MyNameIsTerry]

Frightening, but surely not altogether unexpected (especially within the nation’s security forces).

“Society is only ever three meals away from anarchy [four, if you’re in MI5].”

This unattributable(?) quotation is often used to illustrate just how fragile ‘civilised’ society is. It shouldn't be read as exclusively literal; all kinds of threats - perceived, trivial and actually serious - have the potential to provoke individuals, groups, or even a whole population into disorder and sometimes violence. Watch any news programme for global evidence.

What is truly disturbing is that folks were prepared to admit to that poll their feelings of extreme aggression.

Please note: This is an observation in reply, not a condoning of, or incitement to, violence!

People are angry but it's a weirdly high % on both sides. I wonder whether the questioning, or summing up, has produced a slightly skewed set of results? It would stagger me if such a high % of both sides wouldn't respond sensibly and even condone violence in public. Where did they get these people?

But yes, people are angry so the inline world will look pretty rabid at times. What I do question though is if so many people are willing to commit such acts why aren't they now? Why aren't they throwing threats at MP's? I know some are but it's fringe loons and nothing like what 40-70% of the population would look like (no matter how much MP's use it for publicity for themselves and why they can't use one of those buses they never use )

[MyNameIsTerry]

If EU ambassadors have ‘agreed’ to delay Brexit but haven’t defined a period of extension or put it to an EU vote by the 31^st, is this sufficiently binding to prohibit Boris from calling it a no-show and claiming we’re out? Hmmm, I see that little scallywag No Deal grinning at us again.

Jeremy Corbyn is tying himself in as many contortions as Boris has. He seems to believe a glittering future lies in incorporating into his McGuffin the banishment of No Deal from the hallowed portals of Westminster. But even he must have realised that one McGuffin is just enough to preclude him from premiership for eternity, no matter how vacuous and vacillating that McGuffin is.

Currently, UK politics is like one of those pointless machines made by mad inventor Wilf Lunn that he used to exhibit on Vision On: a complicated mass of weird and bizarre mechanisms made from tat which once triggered couldn’t be stopped before completing some ridiculously simple function. In the case of UK politics, that function will eventually be a well-deserved big boot up parliament’s backside!

Boris wants a GE.
Corbyn wants a GE.
The EU are waiting for a GE announcement before they decide on the extension date.
Corbyn won't agree to a GE unless No Deal is taken off the table.
Boris won't take No Deal off the table.
The EU won't take No Deal off the table.



I do hope the Tories in a GE don't run on a No Deal ticket. That would be a problem for many voters. The No Dealers will likely head to TBP. Will Farage run in Tory areas or let them through? It could be Labour by the backdoor if they get it wrong. But then Labour & Lib look unable to command anything anyway.

Does anyone who suspect Swinson will sell out to the Tories for a coalition?

They need to drop the CU issue. Get through the WAB, get a GE and then the FTA starts (Barnier has been appointed to lead the EU team) and then if they want to go for a CU the option will be there. The EU don't want to rake up issues with NI but a CU would only make things easier with customs checks/duty collections so beneficial to them really (subject to standards checks to maintain the SM).

For some strange reason Labour are so tied to getting this now rather than getting into power and getting it through more easily then. But it's more likely an off the peg than a new one and to be honest, we should negotiate a new one if we get that far. Services also need priority as they are one of our strengths that the EU will want access to.

Perhaps Corbyn's manifesto will be all about his main policies and the section for Brexit will reflect the Labour party's stance on a 2nd referendum, we will tell you after you vote us in?

[FrankT]

It's hopeless! A General Election won't help, either. As I see it, Labour will never return to power, given that the English Tory vote is too strong in the Midlands and southern counties. Then the BXP will mop up the discontent with those, and then you've got Norsefire.

You see now, don't you? We've created an elected dictatorship.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I'm in the Midlands, this city has always been a Labour stronghold. It is only passing to a Tory marginal, or becoming a Labour marginal, since Corbyn came in. Add to that it's a strong Leave region and Labour just vent votes. After the 2017 GE I suspect the remaining Labour seats here will flip to Tory because Labour are appearing to be an anti Brexit party and Boris can easily sell "well I tried" to everyone. Labour can repair all this damage but not under the current leadership and not over Brexit when party members are mostly Remain whereas their voters are the other way.