the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

This is an interesting explanation of the Turkey CU:

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/eu-...customs-union/

Note how countries that agree a FTA with the EU have little incentive to negotiate one with such as Turkey as they can push their goods through to them via the EU and always buy their Turkish goods from the EU.

Worth noting how that could mean we get a backdoor Trump

I'm not sure if I stated that Turkey can't negotiate FTA's but if I did, that's incorrect. The EUCU is a different animal since the EC negotiate all deals.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Brexit Day + 55

Terry… useful analysis/points-of-view on those ‘ten commandments’ (but they ain’t written in stone, folks!)

Hmmm… Mrs Leadsom’s ‘sovereignty’ comments were all future tense-loaded. But we all knew this – full sovereignty is one of the many parts of our ceded identity we’re going to reclaim from the EU when Brexit finally happens.

It seems like there’s a merry dance going on around that ‘May poll’ I mentioned yesterday – who’s the jester who’ll reach the top of that poll…?

Logical we should have Mr Redwood, Terry? Leave long and prosper, indeed!

“The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.” Mr Spock


Would the leavers be the “many”?

True. It's just a speech and letter to us so until we see the full draft we can't know what is truly implied by some of this. The various media outlets are spinning it to their narrative already.

But I have to object to the ten commandments as I sit here eating my porridge with an image of Mrs May's burning bush

What, Corbyn nicked his big line from Mr Spock?!!!

I thought, per Mr Major, we were the tyranny of the majority?

I suspect May's temporary CU is a way to plaster over getting Labour to agree whilst honouring the previous WA clause about determining a future customs agreement and stopping the backstop/resolving NI (for now). It will allow her to step down and head over into the sunset to get paid enormous sums of money for after dinner speeches and book deals, something no matter how bad you were you will get these days Some Tories aren't going to be pleased by a CU offer, some like Clarke may be given the indicative votes had a CU as the biggest winner...and it's a CU...not sure it's the one they were all thinking of when they cast their votes (were they even thinking of the same one? Maybe unicorn on toast like Corbyn?)

It seems a strange world where you may be in a temporary CU, with a say on EU deals, yet not have rights to sell into their FTA's. That say we could get might be as little as saying "we're out" but then all such CU's, aside from Clarke's "permanent" lock in views, should have an exit clause...somewhere

[Carnation]

Moving speech from Teresa May today announcing her resignation. I couldn't help feeling her failure and vast disappointment, but It was on the cards and was just a matter of timing. But, will it change anything within the House of Parliament?

[pulisa]

I think she has been treated horrendously and her mental health must be very fragile. I feel very sorry for her because I believe her to be a decent person tasked with doing an impossible job. I hope she has some peace after she resigns because she deserves it and I hope she has some mental health support in place now.

I actually don't care about politics but I do care about people being publicly hounded and vilified whatever their political persuasion. It makes a mockery of our so-called caring society.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I agree, she put her head above the parapet at one of the worst times. Lets not forget the likes of our current frontrunner, BoJo, chickened out when it was time to step up.

Never good to see someone in tears although I exclude Tony Blair as his were crocodile ones turned on whenever he wanted to appeal to our emotional sides.

I suspect she will have a very thick skin though being a seasoned politician because of the nature of the work but hope she will have support not to feel like the failure she is seen as because to be honest no one can resolve this, no one. Someone has to lose out here and with that will come consequences. For all Corbyn's banging on about a GE I doubt he would want the job.

I notice Labour have indicated they will vote against the GE. The funny thing many are waffling on about a referendum and the WA actually has that in it.

Like pulisa most likely does I find today's social media toxic. It's an online lynch mob, a crowd of people shouting abuse most are too afraid to do without a nice wall of people to stand behind, the tough guy driving past you at speed who is too afraid to get out to shout his inane comments. I don't know why people can't be respectful. Have a laugh and a joke but debate and not be so negative about individuals.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Brexit Day + 56

Reading the ‘Turkey’ news brought a wry smile to my face – I immediately thought ‘Boris-the-berk’, but not for the obvious reasons.

“Kadıoğlu-Novaky is a ruling Conservative Party member and the only British politician of Turkish origin running for an EP seat in this week's elections…”

But we already have a bloke with some Turkish ancestry and of Conservative political persuasion in our government; and he’s playing for the top prize (again).

Terry, I don’t really know enough about current Anglo-Turkish politics to guess if closer economic/trade links would be a good thing. It seems from that article Turkey may be pinning its hopes of a smoother (but still ‘semi-detached’) association with the EU based on whatever CU we can conjour up, with us paving the way. But from your perspective it seems as though there is potential for the UK and the EU to end up in a competition for Turkey’s amorously disguised intentions…? Would any CU become a three-way temporary-but-permanent ‘facilitating’ affair? (This could actually spell the end of the EU, so it’s unlikely to happen – it’d be no more attractive to the EU than my suggestion of a trading ‘union’ comprising UK and RoI, with anyone else invited to join.) But who really wants to deal with President Erdogan’s regime? Whatever transpires, we must not get sucked into any arrangement that has no clearly defined 'exit clause' (we've played that stupid game already, and look where we are now because of it).

If Mr Redwood is First Officer Spock, Mr Corbyn must be space trader Cyrano Jones (flogging McGuffin to anyone daft enough to buy it!).

I went to the polling station yesterday. It was a nostalgic experience – actually putting an ‘X’ in a box (the one marked with the big arrow) instead of scrawling cryptic comments on the ballot paper. The last time I behaved as a ‘responsible citizen’ was in the Referendum; and all we leavers have been scorned ever since for being ‘irresponsible’. And the same will happen again when the results of Euro-elections are announced – déjà vu!

Cyrano Jones, amongst other things described as a "general nuisance" in fandom. Or maybe that Dax character on DS9 who has an ageing symbiotic parasite inside her governing her behaviour?

Turkey might depend on who is in power? We don't mind more military or right wing regimes when it comes to selling them things that explode

Yes, it may be a competition for Turkey but with the EU weakening that CU by chasing other trade deals they may not be as concerned? Turkey are a bit of a pain in the ass for the EU with them blackmailing them over illegal immigration and those pay outs and I get the sense Merkel dislikes them. We would win any race to sign a deal though since the EU takes forever. If you ever look at their list of ongoing trade deals some of them have been ongoing for decades which in any other business wouldn't be considered ongoing. Turkey is also rising in the services stakes and there has been talk of a deal with the EU for those and when it comes to services the UK is the major player in the UK. Would that be competition for us, thus a disincentive, or a bonus or would it would be an industry we could attempt to control? The services talks with the EU seem dead in the water like their EU membership.

Whether it becomes a ménage a trois of CU's is going to depend on what CU we take with the EU. If we end up in a permanent Turkey-style one the EU we will all the prizes by obtaining the benefits of trade into both whilst being able to stop us accessing the FTA's on both sides. If we joined a full CU then we would have the FTA access and Turkey would remain somewhat isolated. It would be obvious to assume the EU would attempt to control us all as power grabs are how it works.

Did you manage to cast your vote without a milkshake being thrown at you by some pre-pubescent minded middle class adult type?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Just wanted to give a couple of missed points a bump:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ch-to-lib-dems

That YouGov/Datapraxis poll also looked at who you would vote for in the next GE and there was a very worrying vote for the major parties, TBP came in 2nd of 24% (+3) which could bring us a situation where we have a Tory/TBP style coalition? CHUK might throw in with them considering Corbyn for one half of CHUK and some of those ex Tories might be more amenable to them than to Labour?

The question about the TBP vote is whether it is powerful enough across regions as the UKIP vote was too widely spread. Something is telling me UKIP weren't polling anywhere near this high though to beat the Tories and LibDem's back.

I would how the LibDems would feel about a coalition with Labour? They instantly dismissed it at the last GE but they didn't have much of a say as such a minor player then. Or are they more after pushing Labour down? Maybe they could win more power out of a coalition now than before as they grow stronger with a weakened Labour?

Another point is about France. Macron parades around a lot but in this poll France was way ahead in being unhappy with both EU and domestic politics. I can't see him being around next time.

https://amp.theguardian.com/politics...-election-poll

[Carnation]

I agree with you Pulisa 100%!!!!
It has been uncomfortable watching a person, because that is what she is, slowly and painfully subjected to cruel remarks and experience her deterioration in what used to be a very strong and healthy human being. :(

[MyNameIsTerry]

Given the EU keep saying all deals are closed I wonder if they will even consent to the Turkey deal? If it's that it's No Deal it makes sense they would but I question whether this has been agreed despite earlier mention of choosing "off the peg" deals over the last couple of years. It just feels a bit rushed. It also leaves a gap for the Corbyn McGuffin which would be a much more significant negotiation: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...te-brexit-deal

[Hollow]

I felt sorry for Theresa May when she had a coughing fit on stage during her speech. I believe her conference was deliberately sabotaged in order to make her look bad.

However, we have to remember that Theresa May has been a shill for the oligarchs her entire political life. Hence, she was rewarded with the PM job. As home secretary, she covered up numerous child abuse inquires into the Westminster paedophile ring. Working for the spooks in MI5/MI6, she helped turn Britain into a police state with the Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill.

Under her "leadership", we adopted the IHRA definition of antisemitism which officially killed free speech in Britain. Like most women in politics, she doesn't have any children and therefore has no stake in the future of this country. Overall, Theresa May is just another traitor

Kincora: Theresa May accused over sex abuse probe 'snub'

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...-31062426.html