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Thread: the EU & the UK

  1. #1701
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    Mar 2014
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Citizens are becoming a bargaining chip again. But the question you have to ask is even if BoJo takes a stance to do something why does it have to be reciprocated? Why the tit-for-tat?

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

    Doesn't that send a bad message to immigrants from outside of the EU? If your country has issues with us, lets think of the US as an example, we will treat you accordingly as responsible for the errors of your government? So, all those Turkish residents will be pretty concerned then?
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  2. #1702
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    So, in a matter of days we've gone from "we are nowhere near any deal and the UK has not provided any real plan" to a deal both the UK & ROI are happy with?

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

    One area that will go down like a lead balloon in the UK is the rebate against tariffs. The UK will have to compensate NI with cash they pass onto businesses where the UK import tariffs are lower than the EU if I'm reading this right?

    I'm not sure the EU will like that either because won't that mean NI could shift to buying through the UK and to get the rebate at the cost of products they would normally buy from the EU?

    The other issue for the EU is the Stormont "lock". The EU said no chance to that. Now we will get to see whether that was posturing or ROI has some friends they can get onside.

    And now we get this...

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

    A few days again we were nowhere near "the tunnel". Now things have progressed so far, despite a lack of any oversight by either Parliament, that Barnier has green lighted it with the full support of the other 27 countries.

    So, it's deal here we come. But then we have the matter if our own Parliament...
    Due to more detail being released I can understand the rebate to NI now. It's Theresa May's "Customs Partnership" that both Boris and the ERG caused to be binned as they wanted the Max Fac solution instead. So, Mrs May must be sitting in the chamber with a smirk on at the moment

    The EU are cautious over this and they were when May raised it. They wanted more technical detail on how it would work but the ERG caused her to bin it a d it never got properly explored. There are some legitimate issues of concern though:

    1) controlling the collection and passing on of duties. The EU will want to bind that one up in something concrete and I'm not going to be surprised if they attempt to slip the ECJ in there as a ruling decision maker on disputes (something we will have to resist or amend in the way May did in her WA).

    2) if goods remaining in NI get a rebate what is to stop the firms then exporting them over the land border into the EU?

    3) what us stopping the above happening the other way i.e. no tariff from EU into NI and then passed on into the UK? Since NI are staying in our customs union, since this is not an EU CU solution or backstop, then we won't be applying tariffs back to NI.

    4) how long before an exporter sends it over a border? Will they just import up front and let it sit a month knowing it will then fall outside of applying a tariff to send it across that land border? Some are bound to try this. I can only see this being a matter of regulation and therefore fines levied were found.

    Already the EU are raising the NI ONLY backstop as the real solution which makes me think they are trying to turn this down. They have asked for more information though. But then we get this suspicious little nugget from the WTO who have remained silent over much of this...

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ard-brexit-fas

    That would appear to suggest a problem with BoJo's, or rather Mrs May's, offer for a Customs Partnership. And they are right! NI would offer a different tariff for trade from the rest of the UK (EU rates) which are rebated but we can argue this is just a fudge as NI would remain within the UK customs union anyway so it's little more than a regional policy. But then NI would align with UK wide external tariffs for all non EU countries to ensure WTO is satisfied, NI remain with us and the UK can set it's own trade tariffs. Would the WA be considered a FTA of sorts to allow this special agreement?

    So, already there is much crowing about this being a non starter and maybe that's why the EU are raising the NI ONLY backstop again?

    But no, there is another problem and one that makes me suspicious of why the WTO are getting involved now. The NI ONLY backstop causes the same problem. In this case NI stays in a customs union with the EU which means applying tariffs down the Irish Channel to the rest of the UK (just no rebate in this solution). NI then applies EU tariffs to non EU countries...which will ...differ to the tariffs the rest of the UK offers to non EU countries. Since NI remains part of the UK it then means we end up breaking WTO rules by offering two different sets of tariffs.

    Why has that not been mentioned before? The UK wide backstop prevents this but that wasn't about this issue, it was solely about the DUP wanting the same as the rest of the UK.

    Suspicious timing...

    Worth noting a later FTA might shore this up to satisfy WTO. The backstop wont though.

    About the Stormont lock Barnier has now said it's not something catered for by the GFA. What? The GFA that talks about the Irish having a say in their future and not Whitehall?
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  3. #1703
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    Mar 2014
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Pain,

    It's difficult to tell when you simply look at the poll results, and the "poll of polls". There is so much bias around that results get misrepresented as you say. I know from reading some that have been covered by the media the questions could be leading, they were not so much asking about Leave/Remain as something else like May's deal where both sides had a large number rejecting it, the people who commissioned some of these polls did so attempting to return something to back their cause (something which shouldn't happen since it's bad polling but then unscrupulous people exist), etc.

    The only way to know is a massive poll. Taking 1k people and trying to apply that over a country is poor. Anyone who works with data knows small samples can fall apart as you have failed to pick up things that later cause distortion. Some of these polls have even been split into regions which dilutes them even further because you end up with 50 people in a city being interviewed. How do you know you haven't missed important viewpoints? You can't unless you purposely attempt to include them, which means adding bias to the poll. It may be a science but it can be misused and such small samples are concerning.

    On May's deal you would have polled the whole ERG who would have said they hated it. Would that mean they get rolled up into a Remain/Reject bucket?

    If the first question was "are you sick of Brexit and do you want me to sod off and stop bothering you?" I think we would know the answer and it would attract a large % in the poll.

    If all the polls point towards Brexit being cancelled then you end up with a problem because a) the EU MEP elections didn't show that, why was May constantly winning in the polls until recently when the extension collapsed her support combined with Farage returning and c) why is Boris winning in the polls? The Lib Dems and Labour would be out in front, even Corbyn aside surely?
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  4. #1704
    Join Date
    Jun 2018
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    152

    Re: the EU & the UK

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    Due to more detail being released I can understand the rebate to NI now. It's Theresa May's "Customs Partnership" that both Boris and the ERG caused to be binned as they wanted the Max Fac solution instead. So, Mrs May must be sitting in the chamber with a smirk on at the moment....
    The banana skin that was Mrs May’s ‘deal’ is still lying around and I think Boris’s foot is hovering over it, like some Wile E. Coyote cartoon character. Will he…? Won’t he…? Oh No! He’s stepped back from the banana skin with a knowing smirk on his face, only to fall backwards over a precipitous cliff, while Road Runner zips smartly along, stepping on the banana skin without any misfortune whatsoever…. Choose your own hidden meaning, folks.

    More:

    Terry, have folks’ feelings about the Referendum result and subsequent Brexit really changed? I can answer this from a personal, almost valedictory standpoint. I’d made up my mind more than forty years ago that, if I were ever given the chance to vote to leave the EU, I’d jump at the chance. Now, having witnessed the EU’s noose of misappropriated authority and bureaucracy tightening year upon year around the UK’s neck, and the way in which they have behaved in the three-and-a-half years since my democratic vote to leave was counted in the majority, I have to say that my antipathy towards the EU is cast in stone for all time.


    Almost valedictory…? Well, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings I Got The Brexit Blues (no more) and dances The Last Brexit Waltz….
    Last edited by Pain; 14-10-19 at 11:58. Reason: More stuff

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