the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

Lol! Good stuff, Pain.I hear old Nigel took a milkshake bath today... that can only help him at the polls... when's the election? Tomorrow?

23rd. I've already voted via post though. Yep, Farage got doused. The bloke who egged Corbyn got 28 days jail time so let's see if the same applies.

[mezzaninedoor]

Im in USA whilst polls on.
I have voted Green and would normally vote Labour ' ish.

[MyNameIsTerry]

The WA gets voted down. Parliament passes a bill to stop a No Deal Brexit via revoking A50. If they don't get their logistics correct we would crash out since passing something in our Parliament is obviously not legal to the EU in this case. It's like we are back to who blinks first but this time just on our side...again. The WA is something the EU say they won't renegotiate. That Backstop issue is only going to push votes to Farage at later elections.

[MyNameIsTerry]

It's her ninth point which looks like the longest of long grass: "Nine - there will be a vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum."Has anyone got a lawnmower, or are we going to need a scythe?Mrs May is being an extremely foolish lady

And that referendum has to be held prior to approving the WA but there is a problem. This new agreement comes with a temporary CU which boots the NI issue down the road. How interested are they going to be in arranging this into the deal they present to us to vote on? So if they give us a referendum it will have to exclude this therefore we don't fully know what we are voting on and later they could add any CU deal they want. It does put the onus on Labour now. Starmer said it needed the referendum vote in there and he's got it with this temporary CU. That should mean Labour vote for the WA. If Labour won the next GE they would likely give up Corbyn's McGuffin and just take the full CU. So no ability to make trade deals. Notice that whilst May indicates we need this she hasn't included it in her 10 points which could allow this issue to be dropped and we remain as tied to the EU as before in this respect. The temporary CU is goods only.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain, take a look at the London only and Wales only polling on Wiki:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019...United_Kingdom

The trend in London, king of Remainers areas, broadly matches national trends. It does make you question who is being forgotten in London.

The trend in Wales differs to the rest. They swung from Labour to TBP bucking the narrative that UKIP types are Tories, something already proven nonsense by the shifts back to both major parties in the last GE as the UKIP vote collapsed, which is interesting. And they haven't seen any LibDem surge from Remainers.

Looking at the seat projection it is also interesting that Labour are clearly ahead of the LibDems. And a recent poll quoted in The Guardian, that I linked earlier (see "Guardian fail" post) and I'm not sure if that one been updated in the scatter chart on that Wiki page yet until I check the table to the other article, showed the LibDems still 2nd but their % had greatly decreased back in line with earlier polling. So, the LibDem surge seems less likely.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Intriguing, Terry. Or do you think it's just plain bizarre?

I think there is a measure of BS peddled by the media. London has Leavers too but there is only one poll so we can't see trends. The Welsh are unhappy with Labour so have switched to TBP whereas Plaid have remained pretty constant and offer a Remain option.

The lack of MEP seats projected for the LibDem's suggests polling has picked up pockets of support. Perhaps a similar issue to how UKP had more voters than the LibDem's yet nowhere near as many seats in the GE's (pre 2017). So, despite the big furore about them they may not end up as strong as we are being told? And Labour will only slip slightly. A big win for the LibDem's in terms of seats compared to now but lets remember they are one a woeful 1 seat at the moment.

The poll I quoted in The Guardian conducted by YouGov isn't in the Wiki link yet. Some points to note:

according to the survey of 1,600 people conducted by YouGov.

AND

The Brexit party is on course to secure twice as many votes as any other party, according to the YouGov-ECFR poll, which gives Nigel Farage’s party 33.4% of votes.


The survey found 17.3% of voters intended to cast their ballots for the Liberal Democrats, 16.1% for Labour and 9.2% for the Green party. The Conservatives are in fifth, on 8.3%.

You will notice the number asked is 1 less than the YouGov/The Independent conducted 20-22 May poll listed on the Wiki page. It's not the same one as the %'s are different but you will see they are largely the same and the Tory % probably went to TBP. But the Labour vote has decreased to leave them in 3rd place behind the LibDem's. But the LibDem % is pretty consistent across all those polls between 12-17% with the odd 19% outlier, if we call it that.

Where is the Labour vote going then? Despite what the press are telling us I can't see a big % shift to the LibDem's at all. It's a smaller shift if anything. If anything I would suggest it's going to TBP, LibDem's and Greens.

More press lies? More Labour party Corbyn bashing?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Brexit Day + 54

Can Mrs Theresa May be sacked from her ‘job’ as Prime Minister?

‘Recall of MPs Act 2015. Proceedings can be initiated only if an MP is found guilty of a wrongdoing that fulfils certain criteria. This petition is successful if at least one in ten voters in the constituency sign. Successful petitions force the recalled MP to vacate the seat, resulting in a by-election.’

Would that ‘wrongdoing that fulfils certain criteria’ cover the deliberate, wanton and wilful act of going against the result of a national democratic vote by use of an illegal instrument, namely: a contrived parliamentary position contrary to the wishes of the people…?

This could be a way of demonstrating the people’s grief at her poor leadership – a sort of popularity poll… the 'May Poll' (oh, don’t groan!)

Who’d replace her? My suggestion is... Sir John Redwood (oh, don’t say “Who?” followed by “He can’t even sing the Welsh national anthem yn yr iaith Gymraeg!”). He’s getting on a bit, but he is pro-Brexit and quite a sensible bloke (no, remainers - that is not an oxymoron!).

Redwood? "Leave long and prosper"

So May's 10 points...

One - the government will seek to conclude alternative arrangements to replace the backstop by December 2020, so that it never needs to be used.

Two - a commitment that, should the backstop come into force, the government will ensure that Great Britain will stay aligned with Northern Ireland.

Three - the negotiating objectives and final treaties for our future relationship with the EU will have to be approved by MPs.

Four - a new workers’ rights bill that guarantees workers’ rights will be no less favourable than in the EU.

Five - there will be no change in the level of environmental protection when we leave the EU.

Six - the UK will seek as close to frictionless trade in goods with the EU as possible while outside the single market and ending free movement.

Seven - we will keep up to date with EU rules for goods and agri-food products that are relevant to checks at border protecting the thousands of jobs that depend on just-in-time supply chains.

Eight - the government will bring forward a customs compromise for MPs to decide on to break the deadlock.

Nine - there will be a vote for MPs on whether the deal should be subject to a referendum.

And ten – there will be a legal duty to secure changes to the political declaration to reflect this new deal.

One - Eight removes the need for this but only if another CU follows it. So we could have a situation where a shift in policy, potentially due to a new government which may be a Labour on , removes the point of this. This is also where the technical solution sits as well as a mirroring of a CU with a Customs Partnership as May wanted.

Two - The ERP dislike this option. I dislike it as it leaves a potential for a permanent backstop with no say. What they decide in One may not be enough to prevent this in the EU's eyes.

Three - They have to vote for the May's trade deal and any others that may replace it. Pretty standard stuff that would likely be covered by what Miller's case clarified anyway?

Four - So the interesting thing about this one is that it may actually mean less workers rights as ours as said to be higher than the EU baseline. That needs investigating as to whether even Labour would have a problem with reducing our rights.

Five - Just a continuation of commitment to climate change goals. The EU will be able to change it though and we will be forced to respond.

Six - A bland "red, white & blue" soundbite. Without keeping standards the same as the EU you can't resolve the NI/ROI border issue anyway unless both sides agree to liabilities (and governance) pushed down onto companies to ensure they meet standards. But this is already the case really as no one if checking what we all export/import other than via current governance procedures. But this must not mean we can't be free to import/export to our own standard otherwise we are handing over our ability to govern commercial standards to the EU.

Seven - Just allowing EU standards to govern ours again. But it only for anything crossing between us and not a reflection of what is imported/exported from the rest of the world as long as we aren't passing it into the EU's domain afterwards.

Eight - This is May's Labour compromise. A temporary "Goods Only" CU until the GE. But it is interesting that her letter actually says "government" which could imply a reshuffle could be considered a party who could change it? Basically it's a way to halt the backstop, get Labour onside and allow May's government not to be bothered sorting it.

I wonder how the EU will respond to this? Will they be happy they run the rules on this and help ROI? Or will the likes of Macron be annoyed we are just kicking the can down the road to the next GE (5th May 2022). Perhaps a savvy Mrs Merkel will explain letting this by for now means the UK locks itself into it's own laws passing the WA and forcing them to come up with a preferred solution otherwise face legal challenges? It's sets a clock on us but it does kick the can down the road for years and the EU will need to be mindful Brexit won't be done until this one is sorted.

But according to May's letter it also includes Corbyn's McGuffin - the UK having a say in any trade policies of the EU. Question though - has she even asked the EU on this? I can't recall seeing anything from the EU about this possibility...which tells me either it's been closely guarded behind the scenes (As if, everything gets leaked by "a source" in politics) or they haven't. Given this reflects a new type of CU wouldn't this mean votes from heads of state? Are they really going to agree ONLY the UK has a new CU that allows them to have a say, or perhaps decide not to implement or opt out or terminate the agreement, when other CU's exist that don't include this? Turkey are bound to ask why they cant have it, for example. This smells very fishy to me but if you look at May's letter she says "one possibility" which suggests this is more an option to seek rather than an option negotiated with the other side. I have grave reservations about this as the EU won't budge on the 4 Freedoms or compromise the SM so why would they do this? The EU could simple say no and it's back to us to find a new solution AND the backstop rears it's head again.

And what is this "Goods Only" CU? It's the Turkish one. That excludes agricultural goods (see May's point Seven which may cover this just as Turkey have bilateral agreements for concessions?), services and public procurement. So, we are going to ask for a Turkish+ CU, that doesn't exist, and hope they pass it when Turkey will then ask why we are getting it and if so why can't they amend theirs?

Nine - Starmer's demand. There is no detail so we have no idea what this referendum will be about and that will come down to more fighting in Parliament, and most likely various votes, on what the question(s) should be. But they can't get the WA passed without preparing the question according to May's letter.

Ten - Just one of those statements saying they have to update a file somewhere to reflect the changes.

Will anyone vote for this? Without knowing if the EU have even agreed to a temporary non existent Turkey+ CU how can MP's be sure it will get through? They could vote for it and find it will never exist. How does that work? Will there be a locking clause in there that forces the government into a renegotiation with Parliamentary approval or the WA is rendered void? And if rendered void and we have left the EU by then what would the EU do since this is not binding on them? It would be No Deal surely and they would want to revert to the backstop but if the WA becomes void doesn't that open up a big hole in everything where the EU expect the backstop but we have backed of agreement to it?

Then there is the woolly referendum promise. I don't doubt MP's will vote for this as a last chance to grab a Remain victory. Some may even risk everything just to get this and hope they win so the damage of other areas in the WA they disagree with won't come into force. And they will expect us to vote on all this. They won't know the details and the EU CU won't be agreed and yet we are expected to vote on it :Wall: FFS seems the only appropriate response to be honest.

[MyNameIsTerry]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...cid=spartanntp

Erm...so it that an admission Parliament wasn't sovereign afterall? I thought they said it was ages ago

[MyNameIsTerry]

Interesting viewpoint about Turkey:

https://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy...ations-with-uk

This is pertinent to our "temporary CU" since it would likely mirror this model.

So, Turkey has to open up it's markets to 3rd party countries who sign trade deals with the EU but they don't have to open up their markets to Turkey. Therefore the EU signs deals that apply one sided to CU's they have that are not the main EUCU. This would likely be something we face to and those advocating the CU (undefined one) in those earlier indicative votes might have a problem with it...if our MP's even understand it

That doesn't seem such a great deal from the EU.

The article doesn't take into account a CU we are in which would remove our rights to negotiate with Turkey. This article has been written without considering this since our CU would lock us in again as well as preventing Turkey from discussing trade.

Worth noting the ONS March 2019 bulletin shows £9,586m imported and £2,231m exported to Turkey so one of our bigger players.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Some interesting concerns raised by Turkey of their CU:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...eu-latest-news

Obviously they will always strive for more, that's just good business, but I was drawn to this:

The Turkish Mission to the EU said a “crucial” way to eliminate the “structural problems in the customs union” would be to permit Turkish authorities “effective participation in the EU decision-making mechanisms” on trade policy.

However, Brussels has so far resisted such calls.

Tiziana Beghin, an Italian 5Star Movement lawmaker and the European Parliament’s rapporteur for the EU-Turkey deal, said: “Trade negotiations cover sensitive information of EU manufacturing and services sectors which could be misused by Turkey.”
Ankara is also hoping Brexit could change the landscape, with Mr Ulgen describing the prospect of Britain joining a customs union with the EU as an “opportunity”.

He said: “The economic weight of the UK will make this question much more politically expedient to resolve.”
The UK benefits from access to the EU’s trade policy committee, making it privy to sensitive discussions on trade talks, and the expectation in Brussels is that London will push to retain this after Brexit.
Pinar Artiran, a chair of the World Trade Organisation, said: “If this is being offered to the United Kingdom, I think Turkey - and rightfully so - would ask for the same possibilities."

So, Turkey are latching onto what we are considering. Will this mean we can get extra oomph to get the EU to agree or will they refuse us so they can refuse Turkey?

Interesting that later EU deals have hurt Turkey. Maybe we have some room in there for trade deals? It depends on who is more important as we know the Canadian deal is not useful to the UK anyway but a separate deal may be.

We would be asking for a temporary version of this CU so the EU may be able to accept it, just to get us finally to agree to something, whilst justifying why Turkey can't have a permanent say in EU trade policy. I think the EU are going to need to add some clauses to ensure we don't spend the next 20 years dithering in a temporary agreement.