the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

Bojo just seems to be running a GE campaign, telling everyone he will give them money and kissing lots of babies. He should be committing his time to Brexit, especially given how little we have now, but it seems the threat of a Labour driven GE has them worried so he's out campaigning to end all of societies woes as they all politicians of all stripes do when they want your vote.

Bojo has also endorsed the Scotland-NI road bridge idea. This is HS2 again, a massive cost and a load of time when we have bigger problems to sort out. One expert claimed the benefits (financial) per year of this, although I haven't seen whether that is including the huge cost to build it, and it is attractive to those countries. It also has an advantage of diverting some of the Dover sea traffic through Scotland which would be interesting to the UK (depending on what we do with Brexit) but it could also be a negative if Scotland does go independent.

ROI are interested in this bridge. They can pay for some of it then...or rather get an EU grant for their part. The trade boost is interesting considering one version of Brexit is said to make NI a wasteland so would it boost much? It depends on Brexit. I'm surprised if there is much boost to NI, unless NI became an EU import/export hub for the UK (if we put that line down the channel and the businesses move over there), and expect it might be more about Scotland and ROI. I wonder how that impacts on RoUK-Scotland trading? Will it make Scotland less reliant on everyone else meaning an easier case for independence? Or is it more for ROI to grab trade?

The DUP have a different tactic, they are going to enforce our culture on their people! Apparently it's all about having Union Jack flags on car number plates (well, can't knock that too much as they are only putting a sticker over the EU one ) and encouraging watching cricket! Cricket isn't exactly big in England and I would have thought it's a minor sport over there?

[MyNameIsTerry]

So are we aiming for a GE then? I bet your average EU citizen is wondering if we will ever come to a decision. The trouble is I can't see Labour winning it anyway and it will mean either coalitions or supply agreements. It's risky if a Con/BXP coalition came out of it as that would ram the lid down on votes passing. I guess it may come down to Swinson changing her stance on Corbyn, although I expect slippery behaviour from LibDems anyway so backtracking is very likely if it gets them the result they want.

[Noivous]

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/bre...kingdom/90783/

Pretty good editorial in the NY Sun, Terry.

Why not just let the Scots and N. Ireland go?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Perhaps the new chant will be "boo hoo Jeremy Corbyn and this was last year so imagine this year's figures considering he's really on the rocks now: https://news.sky.com/story/tens-of-t...orbyn-11780139

[MyNameIsTerry]

The current obsession seems to be a Government of Nation Union (GNU). This has led to Corbyn wanting a free PM job as "caretaker" without us actually voting him in. I think he wants to use it to boost his prospects at a time when he is failing and looking to be booted out. A GNU would be better than a free temporary takeover.

The Lib Dems seems to be using the possibility of a GNU for an "anyobody but Corbyn" campaign and suggesting Labour names that will undermine the Corbyn takeover. Swinson says she won't work wth Corbyn but thr trouble is the party membership is majority Corbyn supporters so there is no way to remove him. Even if he goes they will just replace him with the same stripe of politician and the same malarky continues.

So, maybe a GNU could be a useful way to bring someone in the ask Brussels for an extension and seek a GE to settle this? But then we have Kenneth Clarke saying he would do this:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/polit...cid=spartanntp

'It would have to be a very short term government with only one policy, which would be to sort Brexit,' he said.

But he suggested any Brexit deal settled with the EU by his administration would include 'staying in the customs union, staying in regulatory alignment', which would infuriate Brexiteers.

So, a GNU wouldn't be for the people at all, it would just be another Remainer coup. Clarke would use it to change policy without consulting us in the same they are complaining Bosis is doing. And all along waffling on about putting country before party

Brilliant, a government with ever less of a mandate than Boris' or May's, a government we were never given a say in! Where is the democracy in this? A GNU should be neutral and this is far from it. Clarke's powers should be restricted to the calling of the GE and EU extension only and there should be no negotiation powers. How will they even be able to spend so long in Parliament voting over & over on this nonsense when they are supposed to be very temporary? Maybe they should just get Clarke in and let him revoke A50? It won't be long before they seize on this possibility now he has said he will seek to take over negotiations.

[mezzaninedoor]

For me, all of the witterings regards Brexit at the moment are just noise!!!
Bojo has the inside rail and will push for his No Deal, I really can't see the House of Commons being organised enough to stop No Deal now as they just don't seem to have any agreement on how to approach it between the rebel Tories and the others.

Only 34 per cent of voters want the prime minister to carry out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October if necessary – while 49 per cent urge him to either delay, cancel Brexit altogether, or stage a fresh referendum.

The survey, carried out by BMG Research, also reveals the public is overwhelmingly gloomy about Mr Johnson’s chances of negotiating a fresh deal, with only 19 per cent believing he will.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I must admit it is looking more & more like crash out time. Those who could create an extension to look at the other options just can't agree to a common purpose. Corbyn sees an opportunity to be PM, Swinson sees an opportunity to oust Corbyn, the Tories will never vote for Corbyn. But it might actually be a really convenient way for Corbyn to get a No Deal, if that's what he secretly wanted, without taking as much of the flack as he would have before because now it is pushed back as other options can't happen due to anti Corbyn dogma across the parties.

Like we have been told all along by many a Remainer, the government decides the way we leave and that's what came from Miller's court case.

I expect the future will turn towards going back in or joining the CU or at least negotiation of a trade deal.

Boris can just sit back and watch the clock countdown as the rest squabble over the details. Look at the likes of Letwin, one of those who says he will do anything to stop No Deal, who won't back Corbyn. Realistically Corbyn is a no go as he just can't secure majorities as he is a polarising figure just as Boris is. Some say hold your nose and let Corbyn stop No Deal (are we sure that he wants to? ), others argue he will be another May unable to get cross party support. I think the latter is fair enough but I have questions over this GNU as it's scope should be very limited and nothing to do with the WA or negotiation as that needs to be returned to us in a GE if they go this route.

[mezzaninedoor]

Parliamentary numbers haven't really changed since May was trying to get deals sorted.
I think Boris can engineer us crashing out if he really wants that 'no ifs, no buts' however there will be repercussions over the next 2-3 years of that and some could be quite severe.
I'm sure the EU will work with us on life threatening conditions like Diabetes etc. where Insulin is needed as they won't want to be the bad guys.
However on conditions that are being held at bay or treated as non life threatening I can see issues potentially.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Another look at the polls shows some interesting things:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polls.svg

(can't post the image yet as whoever has updated it has resized it to a huge size!)

So, we have...

- the Tories have robbed the BXP vote back.
- Labour have robbed the LibDem and Green vote back.
- the Tories are out ahead consistently in polls.

So, Swinson isn't as safe as she thought. They only got those votes for the EP because of Brexit and now they have returned back to Corbyn.

Labour are overall down though when in the past they were consistently ahead in the polls. It looks like Boris appeals more and May was lukewarm for many.

[MyNameIsTerry]

So, Boris is on tour doing a May meeting the signifcant powers in the EU. It is interesting because we have gone from Juncker saying there is no chance of any changes to Merkel saying come back with a solution and Macron saying it can be changed if there is political will on bother sides. And the incoming Commission President, one of Merkel's long standing allies, said early on changes were possibly to broker a deal.

What I feel more confident in is...no matter what is put on the table UK MP's will frustrate it hoping it all gets cancelled. And then we crash out.