the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

You are right Terry.
Its still collosal so why lie / exaggerate. I think its the principle that matters. You know the 'if this then what else?' question that we apply in Corporate Business a lot to problems. You always ask, if the opposition, others, businesses will do such and such then what else might they do. I think Boris will be PM and in a way i think thats sad as I don't know that he has a lot of integrity about him but at least the Brexiteers get a Brexit PM however this isn't just about the 52 %, it is also about the 48%, we need Government to chart a course that works for the country hence me being anti No Deal whilst accepting the result of the referendum.

That's true, if they are so emboldened as to lie so publicly then what about the shady stuff they keep for themselves?

The only reasons I can think of as to why they used the full figure are:

1) to sensationalise it as much as possible.
2) because more savvy voters might find the lower figure closer to the benefits of the SM.
3) because politicians are thick.

Given we keep being told the bus swung the northern sheep, we thickos, then they didn't need to worry about 2) as we wouldn't know the difference anyway and haven't got enough pigs & sheep to use to count the difference. But it wouldn't matter anyway as the true figure is so high as too beyond what most of the public can get their heads around.

There is a 4th option for our conspiracy theorists. Perhaps they wanted to plant a seed to annul the vote if it went to Leave?

Regardless I remember seeing the £350m figure debunked as closer to £250m prior to the referendum. It was on the news! And it would have been a massive own goal for the Remain campaign not to raise it.

It's like Farage's Turkey poster hinting at a worst case scenario. It's not like Turks are going to empty their own country and then all of the end up in the UK. The seed is planted. The same was said over allowing Poland, Bulgaria, etc in. But it does cause damage as we can see to our services and that is not only because of the floodgates to cheap labour being opened but a failure in public spending to keep up with the rise in population.

Currently we stand in a position where Parliament can't agree on a single option and that includes the WA that the EU have agreed which includes protection for NI that meets Corbyn's criteria. We look more set to crash out simply because whilst Parliament are trying to pass legislation to stop No Deal thy will have forgot they also have to either seek an extension or revoke A50 or the EU will simply expel us. They won't be able to enforce the WA on us in this circumstance though.

Leadsom mentioned a managed No Deal. The EU refused this. I guess it's back to hardball time again? Any No Deal could be phased through but I suppose they are working on a total cut off as getting our Parliament to even agree on the stages would be impossible.

There is a kind of irony in that fact Gina Miller's legal case is currently forcing Parliament to make a decision and they can't which means we are sailing adrift into No Deal. I wonder if her backers can force a new case to overturn her previous ruling (but only future-looking ) so as to let the government enact the WA?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Boris-the-Johnson… hmm? I suppose I’ll have to drop the ‘berk’ appellation when he becomes PM (can’t be too disrespectful to PMs, unless his/her name is Tony Blair). The Boris is, after all, a Brexiteer… He is, isn’t he? Just making sure, because we’ve seen so many MPs lately not being what they purport to be – parliamentary representatives of the people.

The bogus bus barrage has lifted, for the time being. And you’re right, Terry. That £177 million is still colossal and never needed political exaggeration to make the point that we’d be a lot better off not having it extorted from us by the EU every week.

And that's much lower because in the period in question because FullFact state £350 million is roughly what we would pay to the EU budget without the rebate. The UK actually paid closer to £250 million a week.

There is also this figure not included in my previous post The Treasury figures note payments the EU makes directly to the private sector, such as research grants. In 2015, these were worth an estimated £1.5 billion, so including them could reduce our net contribution further still.

All uncertain money. The graph on the FullFact link shows the variance in contributions vs money back. One line being flogged is that it's thanks to the benevolent EU that many poor areas we live in benefit from their spending and it will disappear under a UK government. So, even our lovely Labour party aren't going to help us? But then it's inferred we will always have a Tory government. The same is said about benefits and standards, how the Tories will take us back to the Victorian age without the control of the EU. I'm sure the NHS will be sold off by the Tories in the same vein as if Labour, and the large % of the population who would be totally against this, don't exist. If the Tories plan to take all my rights away of course I'm voting for the opposition!

It's hard for most of us to quantify. The overall £18.6m (2017) is around half the defence budget and between a 6th-7th of the enormous NHS budget (2017-2018 period), over 11x the road maintenance budgets seen in the period 2014/2015, nearly 3x the railway subsidy (2017-2018, including HS2 funding), a 14th of social security funding (2-17-2018 period, which takes up 35% of spending that year), etc.

Here's an idea for a bus, add up all the crowd funding for ridiculous legal challenges that their lawyers always knew would fail and say "you've wasted x millions on BS, why not give it to charity?"

In other news, Elton John's wig has announced it's proudly European and leaving the EU means being an imperialist wanting to sail the waves triumphantly. Yet again someone who conflates the EU with Europe, something that must annoy Europeans who aren't in the EU as they are considered "other", whilst thinking anyone is still alive from that former UK.

[MyNameIsTerry]

What? Gove isn't drawing a line under it all?

McVey and Raab C. Brexit seem to be arguing for proroguing. Or should that be pro-rogue-ing?

On that note has anyway found it odd that both suggested leave dates fall when Parliament is out of session?

Sounds like a load of grandstanding to me. If the EU don't get their money they are bound to play hardball with any trade from there. McVey is going back to the original stance but that just re-opens it all and the EU say "non", "nein".

Part of the border issue is false anyway. The EU say there is a danger the UK could compromise the SM by allowing products in via NI/ROI that don't meet regulatory standards. We can already do that, it falls to companies to be ensuring they follow regulations. Some company could be importing products from anywhere that they sell back into the SM if they want to break regulations. Anyway, what of the continental meat scandals?

[Hollow]

Brexit is All About Making Israel Greater

https://www.gilad.co.uk/writings/201...israel-greater

In February, I published a translation of a Ynet article which reported that Israel had located itself as post-Brexit Britain’s gateway to the world: “Once out of the EU, Britain will have to sign separate trade agreements with each state, and Israel will be the first,” Ynet wrote. Just to remove any confusion, it added “Israel has become Britain’s strategic ally.”


For Right-wing agitators, the Alt Right, anti-Muslims and anti-immigration activists, Israel and its current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have become a major source of inspiration. Similarly, it is Jewish progressive ideology that arouses pro-immigration campaigners, open-borders enthusiasts and multi culturalists globally and especially in the UK and USA.

[mezzaninedoor]

Brexit Day + 72

Some interesting stuff from potential PMs.

Boris-the-bold: That £39 billion settlement shouldn’t be paid to the EU at all unless they’re prepared to renogitiate everything!

Esther McVey: That £39 billion settlement should only be paid to the EU in exchange for a deal in the UK’s favour.

Sajid Javid: The UK can pay £millions for the post-Brexit border arrangements between NI and RoI to ensure no ‘hard border’ and smooth transitional arrangements.

Maggoty-apple Gove: Is already talking the weasel-words of capitulation, offering no promises to get us out of the EU ever!


The most believable of these sentiments come from Gove and Javid. The border bribe sounds plausible and workable (you can buy anything if you’re prepared to pay). The Maggoty-apple’s words are exactly what I would expect from him – prevarication, pessimism, procrastination and a willingness to do nothing-at-all.

I don't want any of them.
They are all very flawed politicians imho.
Boris is a liar.
McVey has no empathy.
Javid is trying to appear hard right'ish.
Gove is another liar.

[Lola-Lee]

Attachment 4838Attachment 4839

[MyNameIsTerry]

Brexit Day +75

Three questions:-

What are the current agendas for the UK’s Parliamentary political parties regarding Brexit?

If the UK ‘can’t possibly leave the EU by the 31^st October 2019’, by what date can we leave?

With the EU refusing any further negotiation on a Brexit deal and ‘No Deal’ in the process of being killed, how do we fully escape the jurisdiction of the EU as per the 2016 Referendum?

Tory = stay in power
Labour = get in power
Lib Dem = get in power

You see where I'm going...

I guess Tory policy will veer more to the right on Brexit as the candidates are largely No Deal types. The Labour party, well that's anyone's guess when there are so many divisions now not only between Corbyn & non Corbyn but also his right hand bench mates. The rest we know as they are more firmly committed. Other parties don't have to worry so much about balancing votes as they are just taking the scraps from the Tory & Labour table. The SNP are a separate matter but then many of their supporters may be Leave anyway, the true believers who don't want to swap Westminster for Brussels (the ones the SNP so rarely acknowledge exist).

Parliament can pass laws to a) block No Deal, b) block proroguing, c) ensure their vote is assured, etc. What that also then need to do is tackle the EU because Westminster laws are meaningless in this respect. So, they will also need to force the government to seek a) extension or b) revocation. They can also force a new referendum but that still relies on EU extension.

I see many saying revocation will be accepted at some point as nothing changes. I can't see that as the impact to democracy will be bad. Also, recent polling and voting has but an enormous monkey wrench in the media's "they've all changed their minds" narrative. The issue isn't going away and revocation will just keep Farage going.

An in/out referendum could stop it. Not a Deal of No Deal style one as this allows for speculation about whether they are the same.

I suspect it will be the EU that forces the crunch point and I have done for some time. Our lot will dither and squabble forever but the EU want our financial commitments paying and they will only wait so long, as well as waste money on a process that should be long over. But in the case of the UK remaining in I also expect the EU tightening up on any possibility of leaving and looking closely at our perks. They have been firm on preventing anyone else leaving and their direction of travel into more centralisation. States like ROI can help slow that down as constitutional issues require referendums whereas our lot can just decide between about 650 people and suck us further in for their own financial gain.

Will the EU return to the table if a GE occurred? They might. They are saying they won't but that's more likely because they don't want to open that can of worms until they face it. But they won't be granting Corbyn his McGuffin CU as it has too many wider implications. It will be pick a CU or form a less controversial one but not one where we get says in how the EC negotiate trade deals as it would give us more rights than actual member states. Only an opt out would be possible, not a say at the table.

ROI mentioned Corbyn and "a CU". I don't think ROI will have the push to force a McGuffin, they would have to be Germany or France to do that. The EU has indicated that border issue is more important in terms of preserving the SM rather than preventing terrorism. Will they give us everything to be benevolent if we won't bring in a policy to manage that border? No chance. ROI may learn it's place at that too table is not as important as they think. I'm really not sure how much your average Europeans gives a shit about Ireland just as so many of the UK didn't when they voted.

The EU gave us until the end of the year originally so they might extend until then. But at some point the are going to pull that drawbridge up and say make up your mind or we will do it for you. Meanwhile our own MP's will be busy re-arranging those deck chairs while the water is getting higher

[Noivous]

Exactly right Pain. That's what I've been saying about Trump. A very flawed person. Like me, and you, and everyone reading this. It's part of the human condition. But he loves the USA and that's where it starts for me when considering a candidate. I don't believe his predecessor did.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Labour motion to legally block No Deal rejected:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

[MyNameIsTerry]

Sad, isn’t it? The current three main parties’ Brexit agendas only extend as far as to whether they can use any of it to keep or grab power. You know what, collectively they’re not interested in the spirit of Brexit at all!

I should have said ‘again’ when referring to the Parliamentary killing of ‘No Deal’. I think a bill should be proposed banning the hunting down and wanton destruction by MPs of the endangered but resilient ‘No Deal’.

“Tally-ho! There it goes – kill the beast! It’s hiding behind Boris’s bulky framework!”

Did I imagine it or was there recent mention of Leo Varadkar saying some in RoI would wish to throw in their lot with the UK rather than stick with the EU? That’d be a turn up for the books if it grew legs and started running.

No matter what the issue we can always count on political parties, and MP's, to be self serving. For instance, Boris and his tax cut which seems like a very unpopular thing to suggest (although it's more appealing to the Tory membership to put him in place and doesn't constitute a manifesto pledge, if such a thing can be seen as anything other than a suggestion even when it is ) will be very appealing (in secret) to our very own MP's who will be better off for it...all while we pay out to see services cut. Remember the MP salaries fiasco? Not so virtuous then were they?

So, you want to ban Brexhunting? You should know any such bans introduced are so watered down as to become pointless. If they follow the path of fox hunting bans then Brexhunting can still continue as long as everyone refers to it as "a training exercise" perhaps?

ROI have their own Eurosceptic party emerging:

https://talkradio.co.uk/news/irish-e...eu-19032830474

Their message seems more akin to how NI republicans want to break from the UK. They want freedom.

A couple of interesting points are also that they point towards old men (does this perhaps give us an idea this is an appeal to the young?) and how there is an intellectual on the books in the form of a professor!

I don't know about what Varadkar but Irish trade is very tied into the UK so they will want to minimise any damage from Brexit. No Deal is going to harm them more than most because of the % of their GDP but I expect the EU can respond by throwing money at them to prop their economy up thus pushing them back out of recently gained net payer status into net recipient again. In other words back in hock.

The same will apply to Scotland if they go independent.