the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

Yes, I guess that was always a risk.

I suspect it will then fall to a few others (Germany a main one) to talk to them. Macron likes rattling sabres but he also isn't afraid to make decisions that lead to damage as France has seen with the riots that have forced him to rollback his policy. Macron was also the one limiting this extension as Tusk was happy to go to the end of the year.

I suspect cool heads, rather than Boris waving two fingers and a cigar and Macron waving a tricolore, will win out. The EU don't want No Deal either as it will cost them plenty too.

The media are scaremongering saying we have 2 weeks to get the plan to the EU or it's No Deal. If you read lower down you find it's two heads of state only and it's not up to them anyway and they don't drive policy. It's also interesting that the MEP's have fought off Macron who sought to change the wording to remove a risk of No Deal from extension legislation. This tells me he has lost that fight there and I would hope the same when it comes to the votes but will he go against the rest? It's obvious he is stirring with the other PM just as our lot have been stirring with Hungary suggesting they vote against to allow us to No Deal without extension.

I had to laugh at the little leak from "a diplomat" about the meeting with Juncker where Boris is said to have had a "penny drop" moment. You would have to be living under a rock to think SPS checks on food (which is you read the Irish media have been agreed to continue for 9 months in the case of a No Deal anyway ) are anywhere near a solution to Irish border. I seriously don't believe that because we know full well about why that border is a problem due to having decades of terrorism because of the reasons behind it.

The government are saying they wont expose details until closer to the time. Whilst this leave us in the dark and suspicious I think normally this would be very practical because the minute the May government made a decision "an insider" just ran to the media on the UK or EU side. Given the seriousness of getting the DUP on board it would be prudent to nail it down first.

[MyNameIsTerry]

So days after "a diplomat" at the Boris - Juncker meeting reports Boris flabbergasted that SPS alignment continues but not being enough to deal with the border, the reported "penny dropped" moment, Juncker now says he is willing to not only amend the WA he has refuses to change but also remove the backstop from it! He spins it as him doing what is right for us all though. Funny that both he and Barnier have point blank refused any renegotiation of the WA, opposing the views of the incoming president and trade head, and now one of the big red lines is about to fall by the way side. I wonder how important Varadkar feels right now? https://news.sky.com/story/jean-clau...appen-11814207

[MyNameIsTerry]

they listed them somewhere
Some of them seem designed to be such that the EU cant agree
One of them is Northern Ireland has to be able to unilaterally leave the NI only backstop

It sounds like the red line was the one they used to scrub out the backstop in the recent submission

But here is the letter:

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...ines-1-5402898

So, no backstop mention then as it was early but you can see how they also need the transition period not to stop new trade deals and how the UK must retain full control of it's standards. I'm not sure the WA allows that.

Mark Francois seems to be turning the new solution down already:

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-28/...deal-backstop/

The thing here is the other side will turn it down because they don't want to leave. Those in between might turn it down because it doesn't do enough and leaves a vague future commitment rather than something defined.

Back to No Deal then with no agreement on any possible solution by the muppets who sit in the Commons.

But I wonder what the Irish think? The new option doesn't resolve various issues those close to the border have which I suspect might need some bespoke solutions e.g. the farmers with land across the border or the local businesses that work on either side who may be affected by tax issues. Then we have those that the mere sight of a line on a map upsets them with the dangerous fringe because lets face it, it's still a border even if you use a remote lorry park on either side. It has to comply with WTO whatever you call it or it must be a FTA or CU. So far it is being spun as a solution and ignoring this issue which hasn't changed.

It also misses one very big part out that they all seem silent on so far...tariffs. This is something that I agreed with from the start, the WA must be part of a trade agreement. The EU didn't want this and put the backstop in which sorted it all out by retaining the SM/CU. If the EU now accept an amended WA without a backstop they will have to consider the fact we will also have to revert to WTO tariffs on both sides. This means we now need to discuss a FTA/CU option to take care of that after the transition period.

A solution to use lorry parks and post border checks is a border. It's the same as No Deal. But if remote checks are based on companies through regulation then they shift all the work onto them. That would mean slowing down at the business end but may satisfy the border issue?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Just to add in the EU SM issue at the border:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47652280

To protect people's health, some plant and animal products that come into Northern Ireland from outside the EU, via Ireland, will still need to be checked. The UK government has said these checks will not happen at the border itself, but it has not specified exactly where they will take place.

It remains unclear what will happen to goods travelling from Northern Ireland to Ireland. Under EU rules, checks would normally be required at the point certain goods enter the EU single market.

The Irish government says it is securing additional space, and has recruited more customs and agriculture staff to allow for a "significant increase in checks and procedures".

How different is that to what is being suggested as a deal now?

It seems now it will be more about declaration? If agree to keep standards they won't care unless it has been imported before and then exported into the SM which is prevented by an agreement to standards at a compliance level? This was always possible if companies are mandated to follow it.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Just spent this afternoon reading around Yellowhammer and about Yellowhammer. I wasn't sure what to expect but though ministers scoff and are dismissive I think Yellowhammer shows that fears about No Deal are justified.

We have had the high handedness around mortality and the risk register from Jacob Rees Mogg. One feels that Boris Johnson's No Deal bluster may be misplaced with the idea that the cabinet is trying to normalise 2 day traffic jams, lack of medical supplies, hikes in energy prices, growth in the black and grey economies rolling back any in roads Government has made in these areas, I guess the roll eyes piece is about civil disobedience because I guess there there is no formula or numbers being 'run' its just a feeling that people might up and riot because of the other factors. Thats a pretty unhealthy punt that Government is making if it takes a No Deal on.

I always try to understand my friends when they say that you have to keep 'No Deal' on the table for negotiating, as I get that normally with negotiations you have to be ready to walk away because you have other options normally with negotiations, here walking away is self harming by the looks of the facts or rather analysis on the table.

We need a Deal. A Deal however is only the start of Implementation which means there is plenty more negotiating for the Government to do beyond just the initial Deal.

The obvious concern about civil disobedience is NI. I can't really see much rioting and protesting simply because there are food shortages i.e. you have plenty to eat but can't get the exact product you want so through a first world problems hissy fit. But people do like to moan so we can expect plenty of grumbling if they can't get what they want...which is like shopping at one of my local Tesco stores where Brexit seems to have been hitting them a lot over the last 10 years or so looking at the missing stuff on their shelves

I did laugh a bit when it said civil servants might have to do some 2.5 hour shifts (and hopefully some senior people and politicians too) as that's a junior doctor's life for years. Ironic, although not fair on those lower down the pay scale just doing the same as the rest of us in life.

Medicines seem to be getting managed well. I have seen it said there are shortages but this is not uncommon anyway as my pharmacist has explained about local shortages several times in recent years and we have seen media reports about certain drugs being in short supply (including antidepressants). Other than those products which can't be stored this shouldn't be a problem as demand will not change, although stockpiling will create some dips whilst manufacturers smooth it out but that's just business really I've seen some people saying they are stockpiling their own meds which I find very strange since doctors shouldn't be doing that and the NHS would be well against it. Perhaps it's just the usual BS?

Looking at the BBC report there are provisions in place to try to keep things moving but lets hope we still get somewhere with a deal.

One of the problems to manage is going to - people. Idiots who stockpile which is already going on. The more they do this the more they increase the chances of problems but they don't seem to care as long as they have their stuff.

[MyNameIsTerry]

UUP lord appeals to Varadkar to deal direct with London:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

I wonder if we didn't actually put a border up who at WTO would complain? Would it be the EU themselves or someone they encouraged to be a patsy? And if we put a border up around the rest of the UK then any country could surely only complain if they used the ROI/NI route over land?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Interesting internal poll for Labour:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

The real question is missing though - what would happen to their votes by non members if they don't declare a position? And what happens if they do declare they back the NEC by going Remain?

Members don't get parties elected and that 500k members they say is amazing is a drop in the ocean compared to the electorate. But how can Corbyn keep denying what the party themselves want?

If this reflected wider voting you could end up with two smaller opposition parties and one much large Tory one if BXP don't strip them off votes which is les likely under Boris.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Poll update:




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election

Despite it all the Tories are still in front but then BXP vote falling to 4th has played a major role in that. The Lib Dems are nipping at Labour's heels. Labour just seem firmly stuck in the polls.

Lets see if Corbyn backs the party or sits on the fence further. I'm not sure it would win people back now but it could certainly lose some either way.

[MyNameIsTerry]

So it seems Labour have come up with a way to ensure they don't upset one side of the Brexit debate - we don't want to form an opinion until after you vote us in via a GE Corbyn has tried to steer questions away from this in his interviews in recent months too. Whilst we should be voting based on much wider issues in society if he thinks he can stuff such an enormous current issue under a cushion of the sofa to pretend it's not there then I think he's in for a big shock. Again they won't commit to policy due to losing either sides votes knowing members just don't reflect the electorate.

[lebonvin]

Hey Terry, Mezza or whoever

You probably heard that a big tour company from your country just went bust. There are quite a few Brits "stranded" here but if I was them I'd think Yippee we can extend our vacation now. They can't possibly lose their jobs cozza that (or can they?)

I was just gonna ask yous if it got anything to do with Brexit?