the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

I disagree. I think a lot of the time the issue is that you have Remainers getting behind polls that support Remain and Leavers getting behind polls that support Leave. I think its too easy for one side to start saying, oooooOOO the MSM is always against the Leave argument or always against the Remain argument when thats blatantly not true. Most of the fourth estate have stayed true to their right wing , centrist or left wing editorial positions and I think we are pretty clear on newspaper bias over time and where it has been.

Its less true of the likes of the BBC & Sky News where I think we probably get unconcious bais of various shades. For it was odd that Mogg claimed this week that the Today programmer was a Lefty BBC programme when the Editorial bias in that has been for Leave for some time now. Kunnisberg comes in for a lot of criticism but I feel that she tries really hard to be fair minded and MPs seem to feel that too though I think her recent documentary gave Boris Johnson a bit of an easy ride. Marr appears to be a centrist and his programme I think shows that unconcious bias.

I think the latest No Deal supporting Polls are a result partly of peoples 'Oh God I Wish This was Over' supported by Theresa May trying that on as well as she understands the people rather than from people taking a considered opinion on the whole question.

I still feel that No Deal is an unsuitable outcome based on the referendum result 52-48. I dont have solutions for how the Commons gets there but it needs to get to a Deal outcome I feel, for the sake of the UK. I dont object to No Deal as a knee jerk reaction to any Project Fear but to the fact that I personally have read The Week, Newsweek, Spectator, Financial Times etc etc and read around this subject a lot and Business generally does not on balance want a No Deal and we want Business to thrive surely, WTO rules is not a place for UK business to thrive. Equally where we are at the moment with no conclusion is not a place for UK business to thrive either.

Sorry, I should have been clearer on that. I meant the public. Any bad news is blamed on Brexit to which Leavers shout "we haven't left yet". Any good news (in polls) is trumpeted as "the will of the people" by Remainers yet a poll that comes out Leave will be derided as flawed no matter what. It's a hypocrisy that exists on both sides.

Not sure about the other but I have always found the FT very anti Brexit. I check things they publish first. But business always wants stable, the status quo. The same reason they are saying Corbyn getting in would be worse than Brexit, he represents instability. They can't plan for it well and economists are bit like the fortune tellers with their crystal balls.

[MyNameIsTerry]

The Poll Industry acknowledges that it is always working with a margin of error. Thats why Poll of Polls tend to balance that out. Polling companies use all sorts of approaches to try and weight stuff and work to drive the margin of error down but there have been some horrendous misPolls over the years.

Yes, they have established margins of error. Summation seems to be respected as are the exit polls (can't remember the guys name off hand, a prof?).

But the run up to the referendum and the last GE showed some big flaws in polls. The same with Trump. It makes you wonder why they were so wrong?

For me it's a bit of a red flag when a poll has small numbers like a thousand. Multiplying that out into 40m people could give the wrong result. Another issue is the more you create splits in the poll (e.g. Tory, Labour, LibDem, London, Midlands, North, Wales, etc) you reduce your sample sizes greatly. If I see a poll of 10k then I might take more note of that.

The above YouGov one I posted had other questions in it that showed people were mixed. This is where media bias comes in because I checked the link Pain gave and The Metro to see the same results. The Indy were on Google search, I think. Taking one question alone doesn't show the mixed views throughout the poll that still show people are not happy.

[MyNameIsTerry]

May said she didn't want an extension past May because of EU elections. Now she's written to them to say end of June so that's EU elections and more wasted money for us. The EU may actually refuse requesting a longer extension too, which I think it likely or some rolling agreement of sorts. They won't want a "are they, aren't they" every Friday night.

I think this will be because of the talks with Labour who will need some time.

I wonder how compatible May's deal is with a CU. Will have to go through it in more detail. But which CU though? Corbyn never says which his view is. Clarke's would be an easy negotiation but a bespoke deal would likely mean that extra years extension I believe.

[MyNameIsTerry]

You sound like an old friend of mine who advocated growing old disgracefully But I suspect you have more grasp on the EU politics of the 70's than I. I have seen people saying how they were the younger generation back then who followed Benn in wanting out but were derided as the loonies of the day. The older generations being told by politicians they would have more wealth to enjoy.

Ah yes, Lord Tarzan. Isn't he one of those non farming rich farmers you were talking about earlier? One who gets a fat subsidy from the CAP? Wasn't Clarke telling us we needed the Euro, a bullet we dodged? And weren't the economists telling us we needed it too?

I think we should just put this bloke in charge of negotiations...



...and his till should be in charge of MP's expenses

Interesting QT there. Aside from this we have the senior ROI politicians saying they don't want to do it either AND Barnier's deputy was working on plans to have a post border haulage site for checking goods which she was saying was a solution to a hard border

Like this guy says, who is going to "make it so" then? What are the consequences? I've seen Remainers arguing it is international law we would break yet they were silent when Barnier's deputy was doing exactly the same.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Interesting piece here by The Guardian's economics editor:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...it-trade-goods

His conclusion is that the EUCU is overrated for us because our most important sector is financial services and we aren't good at manufacturing.

I do question some of his logic in this piece. He concentrates on business but forgets about cost to the customer. One of the big issues is import tariffs which will increase product pricing.

Now, The Guardian haven't been pro Corbyn in the past so perhaps this is a baised written piece aimed that way rather than for Brexit?

It does answer a question I have:
​

Jeremy Corbyn seems to agree. When the Labour leader sat down for talks with Theresa May, his argument was that Britain should be part of a customs union with the EU. The use of the indefinite article is important. Labour is talking about a customs union rather than the customs union.

So, we won't have a clue what this CU will be because Labour never define it. More detail needed from the talks. This doesn't seem about Clarke's Motion then.

Also, it won't allow for frictionless trade without the extra that the Single Market ensure. May's Common Rulebook is important there.

I've always regarded free movement of labour to be less important though and more for the big businesses to scoop the cheapest labour by moving around from a large base of people with disparate employment standards. I've seen it argued you can't have a Single Market without it, but why? If more people are needed why do you need the ability to let everyone walk across a border? Why can't you have a quota system that is robust enough to respond to the drive? Speed is an issue but why can't there be middle ground without having seemingly no control at all and taking a retrospective view of immigration control?

[MyNameIsTerry]

You sound like an old friend of mine who advocated growing old disgracefully But I suspect you have more grasp on the EU politics of the 70's than I. I have seen people saying how they were the younger generation back then who followed Benn in wanting out but were derided as the loonies of the day. The older generations being told by politicians they would have more wealth to enjoy.

Ah yes, Lord Tarzan. Isn't he one of those non farming rich farmers you were talking about earlier? One who gets a fat subsidy from the CAP? Wasn't Clarke telling us we needed the Euro, a bullet we dodged? And weren't the economists telling us we needed it too?

I think we should just put this bloke in charge of negotiations...



...and his till should be in charge of MP's expenses

Interesting QT there. Aside from this we have the senior ROI politicians saying they don't want to do it either AND Barnier's deputy was working on plans to have a post border haulage site for checking goods which she was saying was a solution to a hard border

Like this guy says, who is going to "make is so" then? What are the consequences? I've seen Remainers arguing it is international law we would break yet they were silent when Barnier's deputy was doing exactly the same.

This is what I needed to refresh myself on:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-46892372

I've read about the WTO impact before but my head seems to have flushed it out!

There is a level of bias in articles about this as they always talk about the UK being threatened with a panel that decides we have to compensate the complainant but seems to forget the complainant could raise it against the UK AND the EU. We would both be breaking the CU agreement if we kept the border down.

Also, multiple members could raise complaints. It's not a road we want to go down because if I was a leader I would see this as cash grab whether I care or not. Imagine Trump seeing this opportunity? Or China who the EU are being defensive against?

But we could seem to argue there is a security issue here and get that 2 years. Where we go from there though is the question so this isn't a good solution either.

So, the deputy negotiator was looking at haulage parks to make post border checks. I'm not sure the Irish would see this as an open border anyway but it would allow non trade crossings. I also don't see how it tackles those who straddle the border and trade e.g. a farmer. But in terms of WTO, this wouldn't be satisfactory because the EU would still do border checks on ever other nation exporting into their bloc. This could open up more claims against them than us couldn't it given their size?

[mezzaninedoor]

Corbyn’s ‘Customs Union’ is like Alfred Hitchcock’s ‘McGuffin’ – it’s really, really important to the plot for as long as it remains undefined; then as soon as it is defined, it loses all its mystery and no longer holds anyone’s interest.

I’m not keen on growing old, either gracefully or disgracefully. But the alternative looks even less attractive…. Sounds just like Brexit to me! (Kurt Cobain might have written it if he’d lived into middle-age…).

As Billy Connolly ruefully said: “I’m too old to die young.”

Absolutely, Corbyns custom union is a McGuffin, its something that is different to what we have now except its not because its not defined though of course its the only course of action that passes Corbyns tests !!!

I think it is best to grow old disgracefully, I also feel its pretty important to not grow up too much, you miss too much fun if youre the considered Wisdom within your family or friendship group

FRANCES LEAR:

“I believe the second half of one’s life is meant to be better than the first half. The first half is finding out how you do it. And the second half is doing it.”

[MyNameIsTerry]

Corbyn's McGuffin Sounds like something you might get some cream for...possibly with a rectal applicator

How many clues do we get and will we be able to avoid...



We certainly seem to be getting the comedy sketches for the clues

[Carnation]

Where do I get my new passport?
I can put it with the new brexit coin.

[Carnation]

Sorry, sarcasm seems to have taken me over since this charade in Parliament over brexit.
I even walked in to my local supermarket the other day chanting, "Only European fruit and veg, I just love stale and chemically sprayed food, yummy, yummy".
Following that, I popped in to the local antiques shop that is run by a German who was eating a piece of fruit when I walked in and was pulling a face as he did".
"what's wrong?" I asked.
It's stale/rotten", he replied.
"Well, there you go, you have experienced one of the gripes that us British people have to put up with", I said with slightly 'told you so attitude".
This chap is obviously a remainer. He's made a fine living from jaunting around Europe buying from the poorer lands and selling to the English aristocrats for their stately homes.
I will stick by my statement and still say that a large proportion of remainers have a lot to gain in the way of finances and recreational reasons and the rest of us are left with rotten fruit that many of us just can't afford to buy anyway.
Actually how many of these MPs in Parliament live in the real world? A two up, two down house or even one room?
How many of them have a budget for their housekeeping or have to cut down on their heating so they can eat?
How many people that can't get work because the employer takes the foreign applicant that will take the lower wage?
Everything boils down to money in the end.
And this ongoing game of chess in Parliament is costing the country shed loads of money when it could be used for the people's needs.
I'm now beginning to think that Parliament are hanging it our until enough of the older generation have died and eventually the time span will be so long that they can justify a 2nd referendum.
Only problem for them in the meantime is the public will have lost their faith/trust and they could find a situation where people don't vote at all in the future because it means nothing!