the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

Ah! But now we see the future…

Boris-the-berk is indeed our next Prime Minister. He’s formed a hastily cobbled-together Government, met Her Majesty, then immediately prorogued his new Government until November 1^st.

This is giving him loads of time to: get divorced, write a book about how he became Prime Minister, appear in a programme about how he became Prime Minister, play a lot of cricket, write an article for The Spectator about how he wrote about Winston Churchill, play some more cricket, get married, write a column for The Telegraph about how he became Prime Minister (likening himself to Churchill coming back from the wilderness) have a holiday, write another column for The Telegraph about how he emulated Sir Francis Drake (substituting cricket for bowls) and waited for Brexit to play itself out to it’s preordained concluding No deal.

Where was all angst and negotiation over Brexit? It is done!


It's a downright lie, Tez! I never laid a finger on it - it was that bunch of old geezers wot did the Hatton Garden job

Have you been peaking at some confidential papers? You do realise your post will likely appear rehashed in one of several newspapers tomorrow quoting "a source said".

Ah so it was they who melted it down into a nice big lamp chop for giggles then?

[MyNameIsTerry]

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-a...el-farage/amp/

Ahhhhahahaha-heeheehee-hohoho-ohohoho-hahahahaaaaaa!!!!

Can anyone say Trump and the Russians?

Like all the shady donations to every political party?

The thing is stuff like this doesn't influence that many people surely? Driving around on a bus to rallies? The only people that attend those things are political party fan boys aren't they? I'm struggling to understand why anyone would go to one of those rather than go out shopping.

Any wrongdoing needs addressing but I think too much is put into this, people are unhappy for a reason and it's not because Farage tells them to be. They look locally to their failing systems and Farage doesn't address those things as closely as he does the larger points. For instance, when your local distribution centres are now busing in Eastern European workers, starting all workers on local salaries than before and reducing standards so you really need a Farage to tell you why?

Sure, he does what they all do, that is parade around saying it's the fault of xyz. But politicians sailing close to the wind or completely over it, talking BS, misleading the public, promising unicorns and generally being a bunch idiots is hardly a new thing. If it is why do our older generations tell us it's never been any different?

The Russians at it again, eh? It's fair to stop what they are doing but I find it completely disingenuous because it is sold as if it's only them and our countries aren't doing exactly the same around the world. When we do it we seem to imply we are enlightening other peoples...as we try to get a party sympathetic to our wants into power.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Some interesting points in The Guardian as we await results:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other...cid=spartanntp

Mr Watson said: "Our performance (in the European elections) is a direct result of our mealy-mouthed backing for a public vote on Brexit when it is being demanded loud and clear by the overwhelming majority of our members and voters.

"Polls show Labour has been losing up to four times more voters to parties giving full backing to a people's vote than to (Nigel) Farage.

"And those same polls show we would have beaten him by a country mile if we had unambiguously backed a public vote on any form of Brexit."

He added: "Never again can we find ourselves hedging our bets when we needed to make an historic choice about which side we're on."

Watson is in fantasy land. Internal polls may be telling them to back a 3nd referendum but that's nothing if the general population don't back it. Watson is free to "pick a side" but how is he going to manage the wipeout Labour receives outside certain areas? At least McDonnell acknowledges this, Watson seems to care little for their Northern heartlands. Does he remember the GE in 2017 where Labour lost seats in heartlands like mine for the first time in their history?

Despite the political importance of Brexit, which has dominated the Westminster agenda for months, the election does not appear to have captured the public imagination, although some areas reported increased turnouts.

In the South West, a turnout of 40.5% has been recorded - three percentage points up on 37.4% from 2014 while the North East has 32.7%, slightly up on the 31.6% of 2014, and Eastern has 36.4%, much the same as the 36.6% of 2014.

The turnout for the South East is 39.36%, up from 36.3% in 2014, while in the West Midlands it dropped from 32.4% to 31.1% this year.

In the North West turnout was down from 33.3% to 33.1% in this year's elections.The turnout in Wales is five percentage points up on 2014 - 37.3% as against 32% in the previous Euro poll.

In Northern Ireland, which is at the centre of the Brexit storm over the nature of the border with Ireland, turnout was down to 45.1% from 51% in 2014.

So the only real region to consider this import out of those is NI? That's understandable given the more direct immediate effect on them on both sides of the coin.

It seems despite the furore voter apathy has won out again then.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Some interesting stats on here:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-expected-win/

Note their % share graphic which I think may be a little misleading when we consider differing populations and turnouts considering it doesn't seem to match the seats won

eu-election-brexit-bands.png



Some breakdowns of my own. Click the image or just use the inserted image table:

EP Voting By Party - National.
Shows the party, seats won, swing and vote share. Vote share is from the site above.

EP Voting By Party - National.png



EP Voting By Party - Regional
Same as above but shows you each region together as the above site filters them one at a time. This makes it easier to scan the differences between regions.

EP Voting By Party - Regional.jpg



Seats Won By Region
This shows seats by region split into Leave and Remain categories as well as the % share of seats by region and totals. I haven't included Labour or Tory in these. Change UK didn't win anything so aren't reflected and Other will only appear in cases like Wales where we know there is Plaid (and once updated Northern Island may contain some). So this is where we can judge the protest parties, those who have backed Leave or Remain, The Brexit Party, Lib Dems, Greens.

Seats Won By Region.png


Overall Leave Vs Remain
Shows the number of regions won and a % reflection. The parties used are the same as above.

Overall Leave Vs Remain.png



I will do something with the compromise parties along the same lines in the last two charts when I get chance and the rest have been updated. Please bare in mind only 10 out 12 regions have declared at this point and these are going to be more Remain regions. I expect this will close the gap between Leave % Remain %'s and also increase the number of regions for Remain to 3 thus reducing the total % Leave/Remain by overall.

It may be interesting to contrast this with 2014.

Some interesting points off the top of my head:

- UKIP are a wipe out, most likely losing their votes to TBP.
- Change UK are new but have failed to get anything in this which bodes badly for them at future elections.
- The Tories have collapsed too.
- Labour have made significant losses but more so in London.
- Plaid have failed to get much and TBP have come out in Wales by dumping Labour.
- Note I think I saw on the BBC tracker the SNP are predicted to win an extra seat and dump Scottish Labour out altogether.
- The Lib Dems have done well and stolen Labour seats. However if you look at the individual regional charts above you will notice that there are some anomalies such as the North West where it looks like the Labour and Tory seats were lost to a the Lib Dems and Greens. York & Humber, West Midlands (my region), East Midlands, East of England, South East are other examples. London is a bit of an oddity in that whilst there has been a swing to the Lib Dems the Tories have lost a seat which may have gone to TBP if we consider the UKIP seat obviously going that way or it could even one be on of those Labour seats going to TBP which you would assume when to the Lib Dems.
- The Greens have done well. See previous point about gains.

So, despite the media telling us Labour will crumble to the Lib Dems it's no so straight forward as this. There has obviously been some moves from the Tories too which is likely where the Tory Remainers sit. It may even been some leaching from the Lib Dems to Greens?

Pain, an interesting regional split there for London at 33.3% Leave. Remain central down there but then the Remain vote in 2016 was over 70%. These are the lost voices in London from the Leave side.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Some interesting points in The Guardian as we await results:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other...cid=spartanntp

Watson is in fantasy land. Internal polls may be telling them to back a 3nd referendum but that's nothing if the general population don't back it. Watson is free to "pick a side" but how is he going to manage the wipeout Labour receives outside certain areas? At least McDonnell acknowledges this, Watson seems to care little for their Northern heartlands. Does he remember the GE in 2017 where Labour lost seats in heartlands like mine for the first time in their history?

So the only real region to consider this import out of those is NI? That's understandable given the more direct immediate effect on them on both sides of the coin.

It seems despite the furore voter apathy has won out again then.

Just to add to this, Corbyn took a spanking in his own back yard...where he normally wins.

[Hollow]

Jewish groups thank outgoing British PM May for being a ‘true friend’

https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/05/...a-true-friend/

Among her accomplishments for U.K. Jewry, said van der Zyl, was that her “government has adopted the [International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance] definition of anti-Semitism; marked the Balfour Centenary with pride; banned terror organization Hezbollah; increased security funding” and opposed “anti-Israel bias at the U.N. Human Rights Council.”

The U.K.-based Jewish Chronicle also saluted May.

“If Theresa May’s overall achievements as Prime Minister are difficult to highlight – for British Jews she will be remembered by most as a leader who offered them and Israel unprecedented support,” wrote the paper’s political editor, Lee Harpin.

[Carnation]

The photos look like a bunch of ageing University profiles.
Does it mean if you adorn a suit it makes you more intelligent? or maybe a swept over hairdo with attitude will do the trick.

[MyNameIsTerry]

The photos look like a bunch of ageing University profiles. Does it mean if you adorn a suit it makes you more intelligent? or maybe a swept over hairdo with attitude will do the trick.

That picture of Gove always makes me think someone behind has poked a piece of grass up his bum

[Carnation]

[MyNameIsTerry]

Labour Remain MP tries to talk some sense opposing the nonsense spouted by the likes of Watson: https://amp.theguardian.com/commenti...neral-election