the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

I think I might put my money on Gove for PM. He is less likely to go No Deal than others and at the last leadership contest they dropped Leadsom like a stone and her views were known.

Now he has offered the 3m free passports he will be seen favourably by people across the political spectrum.

McVey has come out fighting but I question how toxic she is with the public given her past with IDS and the DWP.

The same with Hunt over the NHS. I never saw why they were so popular with the PM and assumed it was for their Leave support because they are pretty toxic characters to the public.

Amber Rudd seems to be getting lined up as the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer. Boris and Hunt seem to have offered here this opportunity. I'm not sure I would see her applying for PM at this point as she feels like someone working their way up to it. In such a senior position she is going to surely be a problem for the likes of Boris, and said she would only support him if he drops No Deal but we shall see how her principles hold in the face of ambition (and she can always spin it as fighting the system from within), but she might be a fit for the likes of Gove?

The spin is in over the EP voting though. The Guardian read Corbyn's comments as willing to offer a 2nd referendum but the BBC read them as falling just short of this and trying to remain on the fence again. Will he resign? Will they boot him finally? Uncle Len seems to be finding his way back to previous power but he doesn't actually want a 2nd referendum...after all that stuff he & his union cronies were spouting about being firm Remain and how the referendum result was wrong, didn't reflect their members, etc.

The vote share shows Remain got more votes, so it's being spun as a Remain win and a 2nd referendum is needed. Farage will spin it as a No Deal win as leading party with most MEP's appointed and most regions won. The map does show most of the UK as Leave which you would think would worry Labour but many of them seem to be so after regaining the lost LibDem votes that they have forgotten how actual GE/LE voting goes with their power bases.

It will be interesting to review what is behind the vote share, where the numbers fell. I've seen the total votes but what about the regional voting?

But we also mustn't forget how low the turnout was. For them to argue the UK is now Remain due to a low turnout vote is a big disingenuous.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Some interesting stats on here:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-expected-win/

Note their % share graphic which I think may be a little misleading when we consider differing populations and turnouts considering it doesn't seem to match the seats won

Attachment 4805



Some breakdowns of my own. Click the image or just use the inserted image table:

EP Voting By Party - National.
Shows the party, seats won, swing and vote share. Vote share is from the site above.

Attachment 4806



EP Voting By Party - Regional
Same as above but shows you each region together as the above site filters them one at a time. This makes it easier to scan the differences between regions.

Attachment 4807



Seats Won By Region
This shows seats by region split into Leave and Remain categories as well as the % share of seats by region and totals. I haven't included Labour or Tory in these. Change UK didn't win anything so aren't reflected and Other will only appear in cases like Wales where we know there is Plaid (and once updated Northern Island may contain some). So this is where we can judge the protest parties, those who have backed Leave or Remain, The Brexit Party, Lib Dems, Greens.

Attachment 4808


Overall Leave Vs Remain
Shows the number of regions won and a % reflection. The parties used are the same as above.

Attachment 4809



I will do something with the compromise parties along the same lines in the last two charts when I get chance and the rest have been updated. Please bare in mind only 10 out 12 regions have declared at this point and these are going to be more Remain regions. I expect this will close the gap between Leave % Remain %'s and also increase the number of regions for Remain to 3 thus reducing the total % Leave/Remain by overall.

It may be interesting to contrast this with 2014.

Some interesting points off the top of my head:

- UKIP are a wipe out, most likely losing their votes to TBP.
- Change UK are new but have failed to get anything in this which bodes badly for them at future elections.
- The Tories have collapsed too.
- Labour have made significant losses but more so in London.
- Plaid have failed to get much and TBP have come out in Wales by dumping Labour.
- Note I think I saw on the BBC tracker the SNP are predicted to win an extra seat and dump Scottish Labour out altogether.
- The Lib Dems have done well and stolen Labour seats. However if you look at the individual regional charts above you will notice that there are some anomalies such as the North West where it looks like the Labour and Tory seats were lost to a the Lib Dems and Greens. York & Humber, West Midlands (my region), East Midlands, East of England, South East are other examples. London is a bit of an oddity in that whilst there has been a swing to the Lib Dems the Tories have lost a seat which may have gone to TBP if we consider the UKIP seat obviously going that way or it could even one be on of those Labour seats going to TBP which you would assume when to the Lib Dems.
- The Greens have done well. See previous point about gains.

So, despite the media telling us Labour will crumble to the Lib Dems it's no so straight forward as this. There has obviously been some moves from the Tories too which is likely where the Tory Remainers sit. It may even been some leaching from the Lib Dems to Greens?

Pain, an interesting regional split there for London at 33.3% Leave. Remain central down there but then the Remain vote in 2016 was over 70%. These are the lost voices in London from the Leave side.

Updated with final results:

Some breakdowns of my own. Click the image or just use the inserted image table:

EP Voting By Party - National.

Shows the party, seats won, swing and vote share. Vote share is from the site above.

EP Voting By Party - National (Updated).png

EP Voting By Party - Regional

Same as above but shows you each region together as the above site filters them one at a time. This makes it easier to scan the differences between regions.

EP Voting By Party - Regional (Updated).jpg


Seats Won By Region

This shows seats by region split into Leave and Remain categories as well as the % share of seats by region and totals. I haven't included Labour or Tory in these. Change UK didn't win anything so aren't reflected and Other will only appear in cases like Wales where we know there is Plaid (and once updated Northern Island may contain some). So this is where we can judge the protest parties, those who have backed Leave or Remain, The Brexit Party, Lib Dems, Greens.

Seats Won By Region (Updated).png


Overall Leave Vs Remain

Shows the number of regions won and a % reflection. The parties used are the same as above.

Overall Leave Vs Remain (Updated).png

[jojo2316]

BORIS!!!
(scared face emoji)

[MyNameIsTerry]

BORIS!!!
(scared face emoji)

[Carnation]

I think it'll be Boris.
It's the era of weird and crazy, of course in the best possible taste

[Carnation]

Whatever anyone thinks of Farage, he certainly has fans. For a Party put together and launched at such short notice, he's struck a chord with many people's hearts. (And brains).

[Carnation]

I agree Lola, it'll be like a mirror image

[MyNameIsTerry]

I think it'll be Boris.
It's the era of weird and crazy, of course in the best possible taste

[jojo2316]

whatever anyone thinks of farage, he certainly has fans. For a party put together and launched at such short notice, he's struck a chord with many people's hearts. (and brains).

puke face emoji

[KK77]

puke face emoji

There ya go, JoJo