the EU & the UK

[jojo2316]

There ya go, JoJo

Thanks.
i feel old
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[Hollow]

There's no doubt that Nigel Farage is a smooth political operator but he is being backed by billionaire Oligarchs. The Brexit party has been bankrolled by Aaron Banks and Andy Wigmore so it's sudden rise shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Infact, these two characters poured millions into the whole Brexit campaign. Don't be duped by these fake populists, their job is to destroy genuine nationalism in Britain.

Tycoon Arron Banks 'funded lavish lifestyle for Nigel Farage after Brexit referendum'

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...n-banks-funded

A £4.4m home in Chelsea, a £30,000 car and driver, a private office in Westminster and personal assistant, as well as hundreds of thousands splashed on promoting “Brand Farage” in America are listed as some of the expenditure gifted to the now Brexit Party leader.

The plush three-bedroom property in West London is estimated to have cost £13,000 a month, while Mr Banks also bought furnishings ranging from chairs and crockery to a shower curtain.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Yep, the EP's were first the next referendum so all Remainers should rally, next they were definately not this as TBP popularity starting showing in polls and finally (post voting) we are back to the original stance with the likes of Cable even saying it shows a majority to Remain. All quite hilarious on top of previous endless arguments about how the non voters in the original referendum were't spoken for so Leave had no real majority (remember, non voters get added on top of Remain votes ) considering the EP's are low voting elections in the UK and despite all this furore of the battle to Remain/Leave the voting barely increased from previous levels of apathy

Like Prentice said, both sides will spin it to their advantage. Clearly a man who understands politics after many years...just like anyone who has been an adult a few years and worked out polticians are all like that no matter what colour the tie!

TBP even won a seat in Scotland. But I see Sturgeon is crying "Freedom!" already. So, further protest voting up there as well as Wales and London.

Lets have a referendum to break the deadlock! Great for the MP's as a) it absolves them from finding any way out of this and b) they can blame it on us if it goes wrong.

Farage's party is an interesting mix if you look at the candidates. Some are obviously capitalist types and there are several ex Communist Party. A very broad church but all wanting to leave the EU. So, when TBP is said to be a racist, xenophobic party does this include those from the left? All the usual "you are enabling a racist" stuff is coming out from a certain side of the political horseshow yet the left wing candidates seem to be immune? Or is it more they are seen as loony left by those slightly to their right on the left?

Which takes us to an interesting point:

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/0...eir-new-party/

Since polling opened in the European elections I have surveyed over 10,000 voters to ask how they voted, why they chose the party they did, and – at least as of this weekend – what they see themselves doing at the next general election.Who voted for whom?More than half (53%) of 2017 Conservative voters who took part in the European elections voted for the Brexit Party. Only just over one in five (21%) stayed with the Tories. Around one in eight (12%) switched to the Liberal Democrats. Labour voters from 2017 were more likely to stay with their party, but only a minority (38%) did so. More than one in five (22%) went to the Lib Dems, 17% switched to the Greens, and 13% went to the Brexit Party.

For all the success of the Lib Dems in these elections, only 69% of their 2017 voters stuck with them: 13% switched to the Green Party and 7% backed the Brexit Party. Nearly seven in ten 2017 UKIP voters (68%) switched to the Brexit Party, with just under a quarter (24%) staying put.To look at the question from the other end of the telescope, two thirds (67%) of the Brexit Party’s vote came from 2017 Tories, 14% from 2017 Labour voters and one in ten from former UKIP voters. The biggest single chunk of Lib Dem support in the European elections came from 2017 Labour voters (37%), with 31% coming from previous Lib Dems and 24% coming from 2017 Conservatives.

Overall, nearly two thirds (64%) of 2016 Leave voters backed the Brexit Party, with 9% voting Tory and 8% Labour. The Remain vote was split more evenly, with 36% going to the Lib Dems and 19% each going to Labour and the Greens. The Conservatives also received 9% of the Remain vote.

Some interesting points in that link. It does seem there is a fair amount of support for a No Deal (76%) but even more (84%) voted this way due to dissatisfaction (which is where my vote went then) however later is says that a No Deal within TBP is really 67% and a further 23% wanted a different deal to May's.

But what I also was interested in was that 1 in 10 Lib Dem voters didn't want to Remain. And 3 in 10 Labour voters wanted to Leave. So, this demonstrates how the EP's were not taken by all to be about Brexit and therefore adds to the opinions of those that worry a GE would look very different to all this (although that should be obvious as demonstrated in 2017 and if the LE's this year hadn't gone the way they did the Lib Dems would still be in the toilet and this wouldn't be now debated as a Remain surge).

Why did Lib Dems want to Leave? I've heard the same about Green voters too leaving for TBP but not tracked anything down yet. This suggests to me that they are frustrated Remainers who believe the referendum should stand, possibly concerned about the consequences to democracy if it doesn't, and are protest voting for the same reason as the rest of the protest votes?

Pain, I think Sid James demonstrated where the Oozlem Bird disappeared In further reference to the jungle MP's have been seen get their briefing about May's new 10 point policy ready for the vote:



They are also having a session on trade deals:



Juncker has come out and said the EU will not negogiate any further deals with a new PM. I hope Corbyn is also listening to that as his policy all the way has been to get in and make his own deal with them. The EU aren't going to keep delaying forever and why should they.

In other EU news the UN ha called on Spain to release Catalonian political prisoners. A non event in the EU. Where is the international pressure on Spain to stop acting like some tin pot dictatorship over this?

[MyNameIsTerry]

I’ll leave Terry-the-statistician to do the numbers (easily understood pie charts or ven diagrams…?) on turnout, percentile difference, overlap, etcetera.

Ok, the weirdest thing happened. I tried to create separate Ven and pie charts but they just came out looking the same



I tried it for other things (e.g. does the party believe it doing the right thing, does the party believe it is what the people want, does the party believe they can arrange the best deal, does the party believe they can lead the country the best way, etc) and the same happened.

Another quick chart was of the Labour Party and their position on Brexit when you consider the statements (interviews, party events, political discussion programmes social media, etc) of the Shadow Cabinet. Try as I might I just can't draw any sort of correlation through that!



Remember May stating a possibility of that "temporary CU"? I've yet to see a reaction from the EU on that. It may be that they won't even negotiate that and Junckers statement covers it all.

McVey and Raab saying if we can't agree by the end of October we just crash out. How do they deal with NI though and the GFA? And if no WA is ratified by Parliament the EU can't enforce that Backstop.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain,

You might want to look at the vote share when compared to Leave/Remain voting areas:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403131

It is interesting that (predictably) the higher the Leave area the greater the TBP support and the same trend for Remain areas with Lib Dem/Green/Labour. This only further reinforces what we know about Labour, they are split both ways. If they go Remain, as many of their MP's are saying, then kiss goodbye to the Leave regions. You won't get into government with only Southern votes. Plenty of marginal seats out there because of all of this which cant flip to Lib Dem/Green and will either remain Labour marginals or Tory gains (and Tory marginals in traditional Labour regions face a similar worry).

Those charts show us we are still where we were in 2016 to some extent. It doesn't show flips from one side to the other, the Bregetters we are told about (although there will be some on both sides).

Leave Remain % Shares And Adjustments.png



Suddenly that lead has dissolved and Mr Cable has gone very quiet

That doesn't include Green Remainers who agree we have to leave. I have put the UUP in Leave given they are unionists and not had chance to check them out. Are they Leave? If not I will amend these numbers but it will only make it slightly closer to 50/50 by the looks of the numbers involved.

So we have a 6.5% (more with Greens) hidden number if Lord Ashcroft's 10k poll has any accuracy in it.

I should point out I haven't looked at Tory Remainers in this. I wasn't sure whether to make an adjustment for them too. That's 9% of the Tory vote so it would push Remain slightly in the lead I think. I will have a look at it tomorrow. But either way it's much closer than the media are admitting too

[MyNameIsTerry]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ny-brexit-deal

Looks like Corbyn is edging closer to a 2nd ref but he seems reluctant to use the words and this is being questioned. In the past he has been more ambiguous but what he says here seems an admission finally.

The points made by Lavory are sensible and it is interesting how he says he has been under attack when defending the need to keep Leave voters on side.

Corbyn is supposed to be discussing a CU with Varadkar later today. I wonder if he has seen Barnier's statement today? He backs Juncker's statement that there will be no further deal negotiations but went as far as saying with anyone as opposed to specifically a new PM.

[Lola-Lee]

Attachment 4820

Trumps bro

[MyNameIsTerry]

New political party formed. Let's hope they don't get into hot water https://southendnewsnetwork.net/news...8c_glXDqDBm5Ec

[MyNameIsTerry]

Germany interference in a UK election process? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48377427

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain,

You might want to look at the vote share when compared to Leave/Remain voting areas:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403131

It is interesting that (predictably) the higher the Leave area the greater the TBP support and the same trend for Remain areas with Lib Dem/Green/Labour. This only further reinforces what we know about Labour, they are split both ways. If they go Remain, as many of their MP's are saying, then kiss goodbye to the Leave regions. You won't get into government with only Southern votes. Plenty of marginal seats out there because of all of this which cant flip to Lib Dem/Green and will either remain Labour marginals or Tory gains (and Tory marginals in traditional Labour regions face a similar worry).

Those charts show us we are still where we were in 2016 to some extent. It doesn't show flips from one side to the other, the Bregetters we are told about (although there will be some on both sides).

Leave Remain % Shares And Adjustments.png



Suddenly that lead has dissolved and Mr Cable has gone very quiet

That doesn't include Green Remainers who agree we have to leave. I have put the UUP in Leave given they are unionists and not had chance to check them out. Are they Leave? If not I will amend these numbers but it will only make it slightly closer to 50/50 by the looks of the numbers involved.

So we have a 6.5% (more with Greens) hidden number if Lord Ashcroft's 10k poll has any accuracy in it.

I should point out I haven't looked at Tory Remainers in this. I wasn't sure whether to make an adjustment for them too. That's 9% of the Tory vote so it would push Remain slightly in the lead I think. I will have a look at it tomorrow. But either way it's much closer than the media are admitting too

Updated charts to reflect Tory EP election voters polled who favour Remain. According to Lord Ashcroft this is actually 28% rather the the 9% I previously mentioned. The 9% was actually Leave voters in the 2016 referendum who supported Tory in the EP elections. This number likely reflects those who have changed from Leave to Remain, only for EP Tory voters though.

Leave Remain % Shares And Adjustments V1.1.png



As the % was higher than I thought this has pushed Remain slightly further into the lead.

I checked out the UUP position which was indeed pro Brexit.

We still don't know how many Green's may agree with Leave.

So, now we have a 4% shift due to Leaver voters who didn't vote with the Leave EP parties as per the rules in the previous quoted post.

Edited: Edited legend below first graph to reflect correct Tory Remain vote % from 9% to 28%