the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

Crumbs! This just takes the Brexit Cue a load more biscuit jokery (we've been here before...).

Nothing wrong with hobnobbing They seem pretty militant when it comes to jaffa cakes. I wonder what they think of fig newtons...and if they've seen any since my childhood when i remember visiting my gran and seeing them everywhere?

[Noivous]

Has anyone else noticed the new tactic by the left/globalists/deep state when they lose an election they launch an investigation into the winner?

I.E. Trump, Farage, and now Boris.

Evil stuff Indeed.

BTW if Johnson becomes the new PM the big question will be which country's leader has better hair the US or the UKs?

[MyNameIsTerry]

It's that Boris bus. The funny thing is in the run up to the referendum that was on the news explaining why it wasn't a completely accurate figure (rebate not taken into account) as I remember laughing about it as it was just more stretching of the truth by politicians. They love giving spurious figures out without the real detail we need to understand an issue. I would love the court to create some precedent that politicians had to be truthful and not misleading. Wouldn't they need to update the curriculum for those politics courses? Boris hair always reminds me of Sesame Street or The Muppets

[MyNameIsTerry]

Seems like Corbyn wants to keep Remain off that 2nd ref Well, if Brussels now say they won't renegotiate after a GE Corbyn will be sunk with this plan and it will be exposed as just to get a GE. So, a GE, a period of renegotiation, then a referendum...the EU will need some patience for another couple of years to watch that happen: https://amp.theguardian.com/politics...-way-off-backs

[MyNameIsTerry]

Worrying times for both Labour and Tory parties as a GE poll reveals the LibDems in first with a close second by TBP. Interesting coalitions to come? https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...heresa-may/amp

[MyNameIsTerry]

Brexit Day + 62


Terry… very interesting analysis. If your assumptions about allegiances (leave/remain) are correct (not including those parties you didn’t take into account) and you’ve tallied up accurately (no reason to believe otherwise), then that difference is 0.16% favouring leave… But both you and I know it isn’t that simple!

Nationwide, didn’t approximately half of those who turned out for the referendum stay away from the Euro-elections (they probably had something infinitely more important to do)?

It’s very difficult to quantify motivation; why folks vote, or won’t – in a particular way on any particular occasion. There are those who will always vote the same (predictables), those who can be persuaded (floaters) and those who make up their minds on the spur of the moment (randomists – thinks: Jeremy Paxman!). Then there are all those who will never vote in anything (apathetics). I think the positive motivation effect only come into play when folks think something important is at stake – Euro-elections are a good example of this (ok, this 2019 one was a bit quirky, in that it shouldn’t even have taken place in the UK, Brexit Day being 29^th March 2019 – just in case anyone’s forgotten!). Even with the Brexit Party coming into existence solely on the back of Brexit being fudged into oblivion by the Lab/Con’s dithering, and the militant remainers being collectively up-in-arms in self-righteous indignation, there wasn’t enough motivation to get that other approximately 35% of voters to turn out (ignoring the 30% who never turn out). But there were still, among those Euro-voters, some who were voting matters not Brexit.

So, Referendum with an In/Out choice on a matter of pereceived importance/significance (clear-cut objective, no complicated ‘issues’) = motivation. But elections of any type for candidates who’ll operate remotely from the electorate with ‘views and opinions’ (messy and ambiguous) = demotivation. Which is why that, although the Euro-election produced a valid indication of some folks voting reasons, it was not fully indicative of what most originally motivated folks thought about Brexit. This was, without a shadow of a doubt, what those who voted Brexit Party showed – no room for ambiguity or interpretation in the Brexit Party’s message.

There’s a big problem with holding a Bref2 – many folks will say, quite correctly, that ‘We’ve already done this with the Referendum of 2016. What’s the point?’ = reduced motivation. Alter a Bref2 to something more fudge-like (remain/Mrs May’s deal or other vague, poorly comprehended choice) = demotivation (certainly for leavers). We end up with a Bref2 which only appeals to remainers; therefore only remainers are motivated to vote. Result: landslide victory for remain (fair? absolutely not!) Bref2 was to be a manipulated proposition right from the moment it was first mooted. Would it be democratic? That depends on your definition: a properly conducted ballot? probably; a confirmatory ballot on a previously decided matter? not at all!

We've no gone from 0.16% to a very similar % difference we had in the referendum, since I added Tory Remainers, and so I look forward to an onslaught of cries that such a small % can not be sufficient reason to change anything and obviously John Major will give us another rendition of his tyranny of the majority

The EP's were a useful exercise in seeing where people sit now we have TBP. The previous LEs gave us an idea of the Remain shift from Labour and the Tory collapse. But you are right, not many people care about the EPs. I can't remember voting in them before, and I've missed the odd LE too, due to work being more important. Is it a Remain surge to show we don't want to leave? Did Leavers respond to fight off that surge? I don't think so. Some have but the typical apathy of irrelevant elections can easily be seen as winning out here as the % turnout isn't much higher than normal and when you compare it to other states (not considering mandatory voting states like Belgium...where they are currently dismantling the high streets in brotherhood with Macron's fans) we are still disinterested.

Perhaps we need to remember that the difference between this turnout and the referendum one, the latter being a truly important election as you say, hides a lot of people who are of the "I'm bored just get on with it" mindset who span both sides? The funny thing is we heard how the non voters in the referendum were being betrayed by Brexit because they never gave their view and yet here we are being told we should remain when a far large % of the electorate didn't turn out. It's the nature of hypocrites though.

Yes, we can see from Ashcroft's poll that some voters ignored all this and voted based on who they thought was best for them. Fair play to them. It's sad tactical voting is needed right now and these people, who may even get castigated for sticking with their principles, voted more true to their normal beliefs.

As far as a confirmatory vote goes I think a 2 stage would ne needed. That at least prevents both sides trying to pull it to their preferred outcome of No Deal or Remain. We need to factor in that people may still want to leave but not on the terms offered in a vote otherwise there is danger it will be spun as Remain win when the reality is a lot of people are still unhappy. It will also allow people to less likely be dragging into tactical voting. And we don't want anything other than binary or we will get vote splitting.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Brexit Day + 63

Fig Newtons, Terry? They were never called that in Britain – now if you mean fig rolls…? Yes, they’re still available from a variety of manufacturers – hmm, lovely! (and they keep you regular). Old joke: how do you make a fig roll?...



Noivous… in *football (soccer) this is known as playing the man, not the ball. It can turn into a nasty tactic – hack a good player’s legs from under him; he’ll go down, with a bit of luck for the rest of the match (and hopefully the hacker will be sent off – but justice doesn’t always prevail!).

Boris-the-berk’s bogus bus baloney never registered with anyone I know as anything other than a publicity gimmick – it was just another ‘faction’ (fiction presented as fact, but with a microscopic grain of truth hidden within). I mean, if MPs and potential MPs are going to have to cease uttering untruths, where will it all end? We could end up with real democracy and a decent, honest society; for goodness sake!

The real threat posed by all this protracted procrastination about Brexit is that ordinary folks stop listening to, or believing in, anything about it. It becomes irrelevant background noise – like old fashioned radio static – only occasionally popping into their consciences as an unwanted nuisance. If/when Brexit passes into another ‘extension’ period, it’ll become mythical – something in the public imagination that never has and never will exist. In that miserable situation, a key (perhaps the only key) to its survival is Mr Farage and the Brexit Party. Their endeavours to be trouble-makers within the EU Parliament and a rallying force for the flagging spirit of leavers will, we trust, carry us onwards and upwards to a brighter future outside the EU (all rise for Land Of Hope And Glory… no slouching!).

There is a problem with the Brexit Party standing in a General Election: at the moment it really is a ‘one-policy-party’. That’s where its strength and popularity lay in the Euro-elections. If they start diluting its Brexit message with all the sorts of useless baggage domestic political parties feel they must have – policies on all and sundry – those would-be Brexit MPs will go the same way as UKIP…. Disagreement >in-fighting>ridicule > political plug hole!


*I have no interest in football but I did once enjoy playing it

To be fair I was young so my main take on fig rolls/newtons was "eeuugghhh!!!"

Taking one for the team. Opposition striker on a run, take out his legs and accept the card

I just buy anyone, who has been voting for years, is taken in by a pledge by a non party that we could spend all the money on the NHS. You would have to be incredibly naïve to buy that given every manifesto ends up watered down. Such naivety is more likely in the young than the more mature who have had many years of being let down by these people

The fizzle out. This is why I welcomed the return of the Farage because if nothing else he's a major pain in the ar5e for the mainstream politicians. People are sick of Brexit and if they dragged out long enough then just maybe it could be relegated? Maybe. But with Farage back stirring the pot there is no chance. And now he is seeing polling as a political party that seems to indicate greater traction than UKIP got, at a time when both major parties are in a serious slump, there will have to be reaction or it's going to hit them at the polls and later elections.

I'm not keen on a TBP manifesto for the same reasons you say. We do need them to get certain quarters motivated but I would prefer the whole Brexit issue removed from the rest of politics. If they head towards a UKIP manifesto then they will lose support, in my opinion. Those more likely to vote to the left are going to struggle with this one. And some of TBP are from the left so the church is going to be incredibly wide making a manifesto difficult for them. Could they operate anywhere outside the centre if they have such a widespread of people? I guess it depends on where the MP's will sit on the spectrum but given several of the MEP candidates were ex Communist Party you do wonder.

Back onto Boris for a moment. Prentice has produced a poll showing him the front runner and stating he may be the one to pull the Tories back together. Do we have a shudder emoticon?

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...s-Brexit-Party

It seems the lack of popularity of the others might be adding to that. Given each day we get a new candidate announcing themselves it could end up being a popularity poll of the whole party It's a contrast to the lack of people willing to put themselves up for it before and makes you wonder why? They've sensed weakness but it could still be a poison chalice.

There has also been an article about how Labour just need to win back the Remain support.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factch...-backed-remain

So, despite getting very little out of the LEs, getting trounced in the EPs and recent polling showing they are in joint 3rd place behind even TBP (more polls needed to clarify trend) they could only lose 8 seats? So, who is going to win all those lost Tory seats? I won't be the Lib Dems surely? So, doesn't that mean the Lib Dem/Greens may only capitalise on current trends by winning 8 seats? That doesn't make them any more popular considering they gained very little in 2017. This report seems to show the Tories losing to Lib Dems and that seems to buck the trend. It also shows Labour sitting still when the Lib Dems, we are told, are stealing all their voters

Obviously there is a greater range of issues to consider in a GE. Here's one - Corbyn. Even before the referendum he was seen as unpopular outside London and the Labour party were forever trying to get rid of him saying he couldn't win anything. In 2017 he did well but lets not forget he was up against one of the worst Tory campaigns in memory. Even now he is bombing when May is drowning. He has consistently polled lower as a leader than May despite his party being ahead.

Has this all been forgotten in the rush to win back Remain Lid Dem voters? Have they forgot about the Labour strongholds lost or that have become marginal seats because of Corbyn? My seat was lost for the first time in it's history from Labour and the others in the city are now marginals. So, Labour doesn't need all those seats further up the country then and will become metropolitan Labour? They certainly won't get anything out of Scotland and Wales is looking bad for them now.

I do also question it when the say Labour Leavers are less committed. Labour have already lost a lot of them over this.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Now the EPs are over here is an update of the polling trend:



It seems the they weren't too far off.

The Labour collapse can be seen, as can the Lib Dem and Greens gain. The Tories also dropped further.

I wonder whether this is because polls were slightly off or whether voters switched at the last minute? Lord Ashcroft, of his poll, said:

Nearly half (45%) of Brexit Party voters said they had decided how to vote within the last month, with only 17% saying they decided on the day. Those who voted Conservative were more likely to say they did not make up their minds until polling day (37%). Labour voters were the most likely to say their voting decision had not been in question since the campaign got underway.

It looks pretty clear Labour were venting support to the Lib Dem and Greens for some time. Maybe those "on the day" voters swung it further?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain,

You might find this interesting. Lord Ashcroft made a split of Leave/Remain in the EPs based on their voting in the 2016 referendum and it only moves the %'s closer.

Total Votes % Share & Adjustment For Ashcroft Polling - Leave Remain Voters 2016.png


That 4% represents a good 700k voters though so it's not that insignificant.

He also showed the shift of Leave to Remain and vice versa from the 2016 referendum.

Total Votes % Share & Adjustment Of Voter Position Shift For Ashcroft Polling - Leave Remain Vot.png



As you can, the shift of Remainers is higher. This must show Remainers in the EP who believe in honouring the referendum result. This number could be higher but Remainers may be mindful of a looming No Deal scenario or do not favour May's deal? The Leavers who have shifted represent the Bregretters and perhaps those who believe May's deal is worse for us and are less likely to favour No Deal?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain,

Earlier you mentioned the turnout levels. It is interesting to look at them over the years to determine whether there has been a surge or not.

European Parliament Elections - Voter Turnout % By Year.png

It doesn't look like a surge to me. If it is, what about the other ones in previous periods? And was 1999 when we surged in Euroscepticism?


It will be interesting to perform some comparisons to LE/GE voter turnouts. Obviously the biggest one is the 2006 referendum

Given the huge % of missing voters you mentioned earlier we know it's just not as important and if it were truly a Remain surge then the numbers would be much higher given their numbers in the referendum. And if the Leavers tried to compensate for this then their numbers would have also greatly increased the turnout rate. So, this "Remain surge" seems a bit of a flop.

Compared to other nations we are pretty average/low.

http://www.ukpolitical.info/european...on-turnout.htm

What might also be interesting is how the LEs have been seen as a Lib Dem win but the independents have been forgotten about. We have no idea which way they go in this and its fair to say many of their voters might have viewed the this LE as an opportunity to vote more based on their principles than get stuck in the old tactical and major party voting mire that dogs most elections? Given their vote share in the LEs could they be significant given the rhetoric that Labour just need to entice the Remain vote back off the Lib Dems?