the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

Barclay says there is a deal in discussion but it will be made public after the Tory party conference this week. He says it will allow time before 17th Oct for a vote and the EU conference. It will be interesting to see what this is but if it turns out to be another fake plan then I can't see how we can consider them as having a plan or trying for one.

The SNP have just said they would suport Corbyn as caretaker PM for the sake of getting an extension and triggering a GE. This mirrors what Ken Clarke said in that he would agree to support it but Corbyn would need to be on a tight reign. This amused me since Clarke also said if they made him caretaker PM he would also run off to agree a deal with the EU to put back to Parliament. Bit of a hypocrite there eh Ken?

Swinson doesn't won't Corbyn and still argues for others from the back benches. Would she agree if Corbyn was on a tight reign for two things only? It would be a very short leadership.

Personally I favour a non runner, not a party leader. They might as well as Bercow to do it for the scope a caretaker PM is supposed to have. It's just...an official receiver really.

Rory Stewart has said a new centrist party could now immerge. He must have missed the last few months with whatever their current name is and who is a member/not a member. Here's an idea for the party emblem...a dying fly.

But we do have the Tory rebels who have been ousted. Their vote is needed to do anything. One has headed for the Lib Dems, who seem to have more seats due to defections than legitimate votes, but the rest don't seem to be moving.

I don't know if BXP will win seats. They may steal votes like UKIP though and I expect they will do much better than they ever did due to where we are now.

Polls-wise, slight wobble for the Tories but it's not looking much different so far. We need another week or so to gauge it though as it's too early and the dates might overlap with the court case.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I find it interesting that we are being told leaving could push us into recession. No one wants a recession but I find it strange that Brexit is the big reason when loads of countries across the Eurozone have been in & out of recession for years.

Only recently we have reporting that Germany, the business powerhouse that props up the figures for the under performers, is on the edge of recession. They managed to avoid recession at the end of 2018 too. The US-China trade war is hitting them, which is fair enough, but they will be hammered by No Deal.

We are told as one country a hammering will hit us much worse, which makes sense, but without an EU bailout I find it hard to believe Germany will weather the storm considering they are already on the edge of recession that seems to be haunting them.

The EU has to make up the losses causes by our leaving. The divorce bill is to be paid over a long period of time so doesn't achieve this. If big players like Germany are struggling then it's a big hit as most countries are recipients.

So perhaps the spreading of impact across the EU is a little disingenuous when certain key countries are already wobbly?

Is this why Merkel is so cautious and willing to talk as opposed to Macron with his flouncy bluster?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain, yes it's how the EU does business. If you want into their protected market they want to restrict your ability as a competitor elsewhere. That's why they love CUs.

Who would this caretaker government be? The focus is on the leader but what of the other offices of state? A mixed bunch of Labour, Lib Dems and SNP ministers. What laws will be in place to stop them inacting their own policies and will they start raising Bills to overstep their mandate? Could we see McDonnell trying to introduce some of his policies? Would it allow a court case to rule the caretaker role has been stepped over? Better tightly word it. Oh and who will be doing the wording since this is a very vague area?

How will normal business progress? Anything being discussed with the current government can't continue as the new "temporary" lot will have their approaches & visions. And what about anything urgent that arises that is the remit of the executive and not Parliament?

Better a GE than the mess a GoNU could rake up.

Already opposition parties, and even Tory MPs, are swanning off to talk to the EU about alternatives so it would be possible the same undermining will take place by caretakers.

[MyNameIsTerry]

The people right on this complex border really need a special policy as it seems impossible to unpick them from either side. There was some talk of reverting to the customs free zones at ports, an obvious risk due to criminals, but maybe something similar needs creating that crosses both sides of the border within a separate international treaty. Will it happen? I doubt it because all ROI seem bothered about it stopping any change and all the EU plan for beyond a deal is the WTO way but with some lorry parks to try to mask a border being a border. We don't seem to be interested in these people either as again it's all about the border impact to countries rather than regions. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-border-brexit

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pain, remember when they wanted to have the ECJ able to overrule UK courts when ruling on EU citizens in the UK included in the deal? Or how they wanted trading disputes under any deal to be decided by the ECJ alone? At least May saw through that.

Guy V and his lauded promise to let UK citizens buy an EU citizens pass seems to have disappeared.

If we No Deal it will make getting a later deal hard. The NI issue will resurface with the same demands about the backstop although I've never thought the EU cared about ROI and it was all about the SM to them, I saw how easily Merkel booted the backstop down the road despite all the cries it must be dealt with at the first stage in a political declaration. Even now Juncker has said it's about protecting the SM and they rarely mention the threats of terrorism unlike economy which is always mentioned. They want to stop the US using that border which they can do by tieing us into regs that restrict US - UK trade or remaining in some form of EU apparatus that allows the same by default. I'm not saying we should trade with the US merely pointing out I don't believe they care that much about ROI.

Citizens right on either side can be dealt with via internal legislation in the event of No Deal. We can raise a Bill to achieve the same.

I think the divorce bill will be the biggest sticking point to getting a trade deal post a No Deal. Reneging on this will look bad internationally anyway but I suspect the backstop and citizens rights will pale next to this. It was the one issue they talked about the most post referendum and wanted committing to early

So, under No Deal do we end up back to square one if we approach them for a trade deal?

[mezzaninedoor]

I'm beginning to completely lose the thread now regards the Brexit and Parliament stuff.
I'm thinking my headspace is completely full and I can't cogitate regards it anymore !!!!
I read around some of the Sunday Papers and basically got 4 completely different journalistic views on the same things. Mail / Mirror / Times / Observer

[lebonvin]

I thought this Brexit gig was cozza too many poles (Polish folk) taking your best fish n chip shop jobs. Then I read a blog what said it was cozza animal rights. So you should give animals the vote

[MyNameIsTerry]

I'm beginning to completely lose the thread now regards the Brexit and Parliament stuff.I'm thinking my headspace is completely full and I can't cogitate regards it anymore !!!!I read around some of the Sunday Papers and basically got 4 completely different journalistic views on the same things. Mail / Mirror / Times / Observer

Was it a knee, a thigh, an inner thigh? Was it a brush or a meaty grab?

[mezzaninedoor]

On a more personal level, my wife and I have found that leavers and remainers have an empirically different view of the world in which we’re now living. I read an online blog which stated that leavers were more prepared to look for and try to understand the arguments for remain than vice versa. We know the transition from EU to an independent Britain won’t be easy – we can’t cast off forty-five years of EU regulatory immersion and political interference without considerable re-adjustment. But surely that’s what it’s all about? I think it’s naïve for anyone to expect the change to be seamless – it would be rather worrying if it were, because that would mean very little if anything had changed.

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But thats the thing, reading 1 Blog does not make that true Pain.
It's hard to gather the proper empirical data about stuff thats subjective like that. Leavers trying harder to understand Remain, Remain trying harder to understand Leave position, the problem is we can all try to look beyond our own view but we are also in our own echo chambers at the same time.
I'm trying to look outside my own echo chamber but everything becomes partly polarised but also partly just stops making sense.

You state that Remainers see the EU as a responsible, respectable club of worthy and worthwhile idealism – all citizens of the world (albeit a world that only encompasses continental Europe and a few offshore territories) – which is certainly worth the costs in both money and freedom, and which only fools would want to eschew.

I don't think thats at all how all Remainers see the EU. I dont think there are freedoms being given up for the EU as you Leavers do, your projecting your Leave view onto a Remain view in part.

Brexit is not a War and I think the use of combatative language has been a big minus in the MPs sadly, its helped stoke division whereever its come from.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a6850626.html from 2016

[lebonvin]

Ouch Pain that musta hurt lol

Who was that shortass historic dude who said you Brits was a nation of shopkeepers? Guess what. Our supreme commander is gonna turn all your national parks into golf courses with resort hotel for planeloads of Polish tourists.. You Brits will be known as a nation of caddies and greenkeepers. Big Ben will get sold to Putin as souvenir and got replaced by Trump Tower. Great times ahead for you Brits!