the EU & the UK

[mezzaninedoor]

Reassemble the suspended NI Assembly and make the border and its administration the responsibility of NI and RoI without interference from either the EU or the UK – after all it's NI and RoI's homeland. Wait a moment! I suggested this none too radical solution over a year ago and Mrs May never listened. Perhaps Boris heard and was just awaiting his chance to try to put it into action….

Pain, yup, agreed totally, that or shift border into Irish Sea

[MyNameIsTerry]

Ah but it's also the EU's border That means the commission controlling the import/export policy as the state isn't allowed to. But doesn't that seem to be at odds with the spirit of the GFA?

[MobileChicane]

We've had loads of Poles here since WWII and no issues. But then Blair opened the immigration floodgates to fill jobs and naturally people looking for a better life made use of it. Years later we have the NHS struggling worse because they haven't invested in it at the same pace they allowed immigration in and GP surgeries are overloaded.

And what proof do you have that the poor conditions in surgeries are due to EU immigration? Evidence suggests that EU immigrants pay more in the state than they take away. The majority of the strain on the NHS is the elderly population.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/rece...3-0e250df6dbba

"The average UK-based migrant from Europe contributed approximately £2,300 more to UK public finances in 2016/17 than the average UK adult. In comparison, each UK born adult contributed £70 less than the average, and each non-European migrant contributed over £800 less than the average.

The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

Taken together, this means that the migrants who arrived in 2016 will make a total net positive contribution of £26.9 billion to the UK’s public finances over the entirety of their stay. The value of this to the UK’s public finances is equivalent to putting approximately 5p on income tax rates (across all marginal rate bands) in that year."

Most EU immigrants are aged from late teens to late 30s. Barring for childbirth and the few who may have pre existing health conditions they probably rarely even see a medical professional. Immigrants provide plenty of NHS workers though. Let's not forget the 65,000 EU NHS staff.

https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7783

Blaming it on immigrants is lazy. It’s scapegoating to avoid the real issue which is crippling underinvestment, staff shortages in the region of 100000 and ideologically driven cuts to services (not just acute health but education, public health and social care) which is straining the whole system.

Wages have been supressed because employers don't need to pay as much knowing they have a steady stream of cheap labour coming in (and some employers go over there to bus them over here) and we get to Brexit.

https://fullfact.org/immigration/imm...s-immigration/
https://fullfact.org/immigration/doe...-reduce-wages/

Every time anyone actually studies immigration the conclusion is always "the effect on wages is either zero or so small as to be negligible", but explaining that requires a more complex answer about the nature of supply and demand, economic growth, and the bias towards youth that immigrants tend to have. It's always far easier to suppose that people from poor places = willing to undercut locals. It requires zero understanding of economics. It sounds simple.

UK wages have not gone up because UK productivity has not gone up. You can blame immigrants (though Germany's performance, as do Sweden's and the Netherlands' hit that on the head, as they also import loads of unskilled immigrants), or emigrants (Poland managed the best result of the lot, despite sending a million educated citizens to the UK), or no immigration or emigration at all (Japan), but at the end of the day it comes down to unit labour costs and productivity, which is a consequence of investment in people, production and process. We are rubbish at it in the UK, working long hours ineffectively.

projected-real-wage-growth-europe-2018.jpg

Claiming FOM has a significant effect on wages compared to other factors has little to no economics basis. We lag behind most of the EEA.

But the EU expanding into countries that were struggling meant their people naturally saw a way to escape poverty, and who can blame them? The EU don't care, we are numbers to them and as long as big business is getting it's cheap labour they will happily ship off anywhere within the EU and sack anyone to save cash.

Ironically it was the UK that pushed for the accession of much of eastern Europe to join the EU during its Presidency in 1992 and the following decade.

DEZKIqwXcAEP7DB.jpg

DEZKVTQXoAMZ81k.jpg

You talk about UK and it's place in the EU as 'us and them'. What do you mean we are numbers to them? We are the EU.

[mezzaninedoor]

And what proof do you have that the poor conditions in surgeries are due to EU immigration? Evidence suggests that EU immigrants pay more in the state than they take away. The majority of the strain on the NHS is the elderly population.

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/rece...3-0e250df6dbba

"The average UK-based migrant from Europe contributed approximately £2,300 more to UK public finances in 2016/17 than the average UK adult. In comparison, each UK born adult contributed £70 less than the average, and each non-European migrant contributed over £800 less than the average.

The average European migrant arriving in the UK in 2016 will contribute £78,000 more than they take out in public services and benefits over their time spent in the UK (assuming a balanced national budget), and the average non-European migrant will make a positive net contribution of £28,000 while living here. By comparison, the average UK citizen’s net lifetime contribution in this scenario is zero.

Taken together, this means that the migrants who arrived in 2016 will make a total net positive contribution of £26.9 billion to the UK’s public finances over the entirety of their stay. The value of this to the UK’s public finances is equivalent to putting approximately 5p on income tax rates (across all marginal rate bands) in that year."

Most EU immigrants are aged from late teens to late 30s. Barring for childbirth and the few who may have pre existing health conditions they probably rarely even see a medical professional. Immigrants provide plenty of NHS workers though. Let's not forget the 65,000 EU NHS staff.

https://researchbriefings.parliament...mmary/CBP-7783

Blaming it on immigrants is lazy. It’s scapegoating to avoid the real issue which is crippling underinvestment, staff shortages in the region of 100000 and ideologically driven cuts to services (not just acute health but education, public health and social care) which is straining the whole system.



https://fullfact.org/immigration/imm...s-immigration/
https://fullfact.org/immigration/doe...-reduce-wages/

Every time anyone actually studies immigration the conclusion is always "the effect on wages is either zero or so small as to be negligible", but explaining that requires a more complex answer about the nature of supply and demand, economic growth, and the bias towards youth that immigrants tend to have. It's always far easier to suppose that people from poor places = willing to undercut locals. It requires zero understanding of economics. It sounds simple.

UK wages have not gone up because UK productivity has not gone up. You can blame immigrants (though Germany's performance, as do Sweden's and the Netherlands' hit that on the head, as they also import loads of unskilled immigrants), or emigrants (Poland managed the best result of the lot, despite sending a million educated citizens to the UK), or no immigration or emigration at all (Japan), but at the end of the day it comes down to unit labour costs and productivity, which is a consequence of investment in people, production and process. We are rubbish at it in the UK, working long hours ineffectively.

projected-real-wage-growth-europe-2018.jpg

Claiming FOM has a significant effect on wages compared to other factors has little to no economics basis. We lag behind most of the EEA.



Ironically it was the UK that pushed for the accession of much of eastern Europe to join the EU during its Presidency in 1992 and the following decade.

DEZKIqwXcAEP7DB.jpg

DEZKVTQXoAMZ81k.jpg

You talk about UK and it's place in the EU as 'us and them'. What do you mean we are numbers to them? We are the EU.

Thanks MobileChicane

[MyNameIsTerry]

You talk about UK and it's place in the EU as 'us and them'. What do you mean we are numbers to them? We are the EU.

Then you've misunderstood because when I talk about the EU I mean politicians. I'm not going to type out the exact names of each part I'm talking about simply to save time and I would hope it's understood that when discussing politics it's not about the general population unless stated. I say the same about our own. We are numbers to politicians, they are remote to us and I don't believe many care about much more than their careers.

We have voter apathy because it feels like there is no point bothering because the majority are interested in strategic votes to secure the win and anyone in a stronghold is stuck with tactical voting or voting the way they want to knowing it will achieve little than keeping a party deposit. Local council elections are different as there is a chance to vote for the individual but with GE's its a different matter.

Like you stated the underinvestment and cuts have only led to the situation and naturally apathy in a remote bunch of MP's will increase. Closure of services and lack of filling the positions of doctors leaving in many cases has squeezed existing surgeries as population continues to increase.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Reassemble the suspended NI Assembly and make the border and its administration the responsibility of NI and RoI without interference from either the EU or the UK – after all it's NI and RoI's homeland. Wait a moment! I suggested this none too radical solution over a year ago and Mrs May never listened. Perhaps Boris heard and was just awaiting his chance to try to put it into action….

The top prize for ‘misleading misnomer of the year – 2019’ looks set to be won by Government of National Unity. Given the context in which it is being spouted out, it is as blatantly gibberish as last year’s winner Meaningful Vote.

Pain, yup, agreed totally, that or shift border into Irish Sea

Well, forgetting Boris and his 10 mile exclusion zone it seems that their idea now is to have 2 borders so the Irish Sea is still one. NI have more ability to influence (wording seems to suggest they do all the work and Whitehall rubber stamp so there will still be fights with the government) whether they stay aligned with the EU or the UK. If the UK stays aligned with EU then it's not going to matter anyway but if we start to diverge then if our standards drop it will surely mean NI keep to EU standards if the economic argument backs it up. The DUP have their ideology but they might stay silent on this if their supporters include the businesses that would end up back in the mess things are in now due to potential divergence from the EU market.

If they get beyond the WA then perhaps as part of the trade agreement they can deal with the concerns Irish businesses have on the SME's and tariffs? This deal seems to be failing them on this front so it's possible that becomes part of the next stage to tie things up because it can't be done in this stage without reverting straight back to the backstop again.

It seems tempting to the EU in some ways and against their policies in others. Whether it is enough of a compromise we will have to wait and see but if not we are going to be back to backstop, CU's (and Corbyn's McGuffin CU that doesn't exist) and the ever real possibility of No Deal.

It's interesting that this new one can be reviewed every 4 years. A headache perhaps for future governments and the EU. Maybe NI will feel less disenfranchised? And keeping NI standards to EU if we diverge might even be another stepping stone to border polls?

Not sure what to think to be honest reading what Irish business are saying. Pushing regulation onto businesses is easy and expect years of headaches over lack of governance and policies but if it gives both sides of the border a way to prevent border infrastructure then it might be a possibility with money thrown at it?

[MyNameIsTerry]

Interesting article from The Guardian detailing cross party support coming in for BoJo's deal:

https://www.msn.com/g00/en-gb/news/u...c.encReferrer=

Worth noting they have another article showing the opposition:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

Lib Dems are against, as are SNP and Labour. Some Labour are for, as are the ERG lot.

Interesting that the Labour MP's are not the usual Hoey types from what I can see unless anyone can shed any light. Smeeth is no Corbyn fan though.

If they vote it down then it's going to be extension time and the PM is saying he will ignore the court ruling. Back to court then. Aren't they trying to bring the date forward though in a new court case?

What a mess.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Not sure if the Mail are misquoting Varadkar and Barnier here. Varadkar seems to think there would be two customs zones on the Ireland. That would only be the case if NI saw the UK diverge in standards and decided to stay aligned whilst the alignment didn't match the EU. Of course NI could have zone to ROI and one to the rest of the UK but he's talking like that's any of his business when it's outside of his country. The other issue is with Barnier saying if NI did drop out later the EU would have guaranteed no border but that's nonsense as NI dropping out of EU standards means the same as now, WTO rules take over therefore the EU hasn't guaranteed anything (and they could add a clause anyway) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...exit-plan.html

[MyNameIsTerry]

Terry… GoNAD or even GoNE – Government of Non-Existence (I’d vote for that at the moment – what we really don’t need is another three-and-a-half years of HoC chuntering on about Brexit at our expense… but you can see it coming a mile off, even after we’ve left the EU).

RT had an interesting news report last night concerning how around thirty percent of remainers are very anxious/depressed. There have been a number of studies commissioned on the UK zeitgeist following Brexit, and they all seem to come out with varying degrees of how much misery/anger/jubilation/depression/aggression abounds throughout the population. However, the RT report mentioned one aspect which I thought interesting: the greater the remain sentiment in a given area, the fewer road accidents. This was analysed as being because depressed folks are known to take fewer risks… every cloud has a silver lining. (For a much greater in-depth examination of risk, chance and probability and how it affects humans, readThe Norm Chronicles: Stories and Numbers about Danger by David Spiegelhalter and Michael Blastland – a fascinating book.)

Well it will just switch from revoke to rejoin with some parties. The Lib Dems will be chasing votes so they are likely to follow this path. The SNP will but in their usual pursuit of independence. But yes, they would keep asking for years of extensions if they could. Getting kicked out starts to become more likely. A GE could give a new government a run at it but no option ever commands a majority as we have seen so eventually we end up back where we are now.

Not seen the RT article but are we talking unhappiness at losing privileges as opposed to real mental health upheaval as we know it on here? Understandable if you are living/working here from the rest of the EU though given the mess our politicians have made of it and nailing down citizens rights early on (the EU shoulder blame there too).

So a Brexit boon in road safety! If 30% are unhappy then does that mean 70% are happy suggesting a net average that things are all good?

GoNE sounds good My GoNAD can also be alleged or alternative The Lib Dems should be on board with it, they have the t shirts for it

[lebonvin]

Hey Pain your a funny guy my man lol

Your remain - depression - road accident theory has gotta be the most crackpotest theory I ever read.

As a yank your Brexit gig don't concern me but it interests me. So far I ain't read any good arguments for Brexit except for the racist one about migrants which I reckon this is all about. Anal sorry animal rights my foot hot damn predicted text