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Thread: the EU & the UK

  1. #1641
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Nope, not twisting anything. Of course we have far right nutters who want an all white homegrown utopia (whatever that is) and right wing elites who benefit from relaxing regulation. But how are these minority groups going to change society that doesn't want what they do? The BNP are dead. Tommy Robinson has a vocal group of like minded idiots but they are a tiny minority. UKIP couldn't win at elections and after the EU referendum in 2016 they shrunk to barely existing. As for "the elites" the rich do what the rich do regardless of the politics they say they support. The rich bankers are all pro EU and they caused so much damage in the banking crisis. We need to keep pushing forward with greater rights and ensure protections via law (and some of ours are greater than the EU anyway). But I agree we do need to keep a watch on the governments we have. As for the far right, they are a minority and the police can take care of stamping on their racism.
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  2. #1642
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    You guys should be asking yourself what is some dumb yank doing messing in UK stuff he don't know scratch about and it ain't gonna effect the outcome anyways you guys are too nice and genteel by half I'm outta here

  3. #1643
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    We are very tolerant of everyone's opinions on here,Charlie so you are free to say what you like as you do. There won't be a reaction though-sorry.

  4. #1644
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    I thought it worth dumping the polls tracker for the Leave/Remain polls in here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...hip_referendum

    Just scroll down to the post-referendum polling section. Here is a not so nice graph (as the one for the GE polls) showing it at a glance:



    The devil is going to be in the detail with these because from the articles in the media about them as they were published many had questions that led people to saying they were unhappy over things like May's deal.
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  5. #1645
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Citizens are becoming a bargaining chip again. But the question you have to ask is even if BoJo takes a stance to do something why does it have to be reciprocated? Why the tit-for-tat?

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

    Doesn't that send a bad message to immigrants from outside of the EU? If your country has issues with us, lets think of the US as an example, we will treat you accordingly as responsible for the errors of your government? So, all those Turkish residents will be pretty concerned then?
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  6. #1646
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    So, in a matter of days we've gone from "we are nowhere near any deal and the UK has not provided any real plan" to a deal both the UK & ROI are happy with?

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

    One area that will go down like a lead balloon in the UK is the rebate against tariffs. The UK will have to compensate NI with cash they pass onto businesses where the UK import tariffs are lower than the EU if I'm reading this right?

    I'm not sure the EU will like that either because won't that mean NI could shift to buying through the UK and to get the rebate at the cost of products they would normally buy from the EU?

    The other issue for the EU is the Stormont "lock". The EU said no chance to that. Now we will get to see whether that was posturing or ROI has some friends they can get onside.

    And now we get this...

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...cid=spartanntp

    A few days again we were nowhere near "the tunnel". Now things have progressed so far, despite a lack of any oversight by either Parliament, that Barnier has green lighted it with the full support of the other 27 countries.

    So, it's deal here we come. But then we have the matter if our own Parliament...
    Due to more detail being released I can understand the rebate to NI now. It's Theresa May's "Customs Partnership" that both Boris and the ERG caused to be binned as they wanted the Max Fac solution instead. So, Mrs May must be sitting in the chamber with a smirk on at the moment

    The EU are cautious over this and they were when May raised it. They wanted more technical detail on how it would work but the ERG caused her to bin it a d it never got properly explored. There are some legitimate issues of concern though:

    1) controlling the collection and passing on of duties. The EU will want to bind that one up in something concrete and I'm not going to be surprised if they attempt to slip the ECJ in there as a ruling decision maker on disputes (something we will have to resist or amend in the way May did in her WA).

    2) if goods remaining in NI get a rebate what is to stop the firms then exporting them over the land border into the EU?

    3) what us stopping the above happening the other way i.e. no tariff from EU into NI and then passed on into the UK? Since NI are staying in our customs union, since this is not an EU CU solution or backstop, then we won't be applying tariffs back to NI.

    4) how long before an exporter sends it over a border? Will they just import up front and let it sit a month knowing it will then fall outside of applying a tariff to send it across that land border? Some are bound to try this. I can only see this being a matter of regulation and therefore fines levied were found.

    Already the EU are raising the NI ONLY backstop as the real solution which makes me think they are trying to turn this down. They have asked for more information though. But then we get this suspicious little nugget from the WTO who have remained silent over much of this...

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ard-brexit-fas

    That would appear to suggest a problem with BoJo's, or rather Mrs May's, offer for a Customs Partnership. And they are right! NI would offer a different tariff for trade from the rest of the UK (EU rates) which are rebated but we can argue this is just a fudge as NI would remain within the UK customs union anyway so it's little more than a regional policy. But then NI would align with UK wide external tariffs for all non EU countries to ensure WTO is satisfied, NI remain with us and the UK can set it's own trade tariffs. Would the WA be considered a FTA of sorts to allow this special agreement?

    So, already there is much crowing about this being a non starter and maybe that's why the EU are raising the NI ONLY backstop again?

    But no, there is another problem and one that makes me suspicious of why the WTO are getting involved now. The NI ONLY backstop causes the same problem. In this case NI stays in a customs union with the EU which means applying tariffs down the Irish Channel to the rest of the UK (just no rebate in this solution). NI then applies EU tariffs to non EU countries...which will ...differ to the tariffs the rest of the UK offers to non EU countries. Since NI remains part of the UK it then means we end up breaking WTO rules by offering two different sets of tariffs.

    Why has that not been mentioned before? The UK wide backstop prevents this but that wasn't about this issue, it was solely about the DUP wanting the same as the rest of the UK.

    Suspicious timing...

    Worth noting a later FTA might shore this up to satisfy WTO. The backstop wont though.

    About the Stormont lock Barnier has now said it's not something catered for by the GFA. What? The GFA that talks about the Irish having a say in their future and not Whitehall?
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  7. #1647
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Pain,

    It's difficult to tell when you simply look at the poll results, and the "poll of polls". There is so much bias around that results get misrepresented as you say. I know from reading some that have been covered by the media the questions could be leading, they were not so much asking about Leave/Remain as something else like May's deal where both sides had a large number rejecting it, the people who commissioned some of these polls did so attempting to return something to back their cause (something which shouldn't happen since it's bad polling but then unscrupulous people exist), etc.

    The only way to know is a massive poll. Taking 1k people and trying to apply that over a country is poor. Anyone who works with data knows small samples can fall apart as you have failed to pick up things that later cause distortion. Some of these polls have even been split into regions which dilutes them even further because you end up with 50 people in a city being interviewed. How do you know you haven't missed important viewpoints? You can't unless you purposely attempt to include them, which means adding bias to the poll. It may be a science but it can be misused and such small samples are concerning.

    On May's deal you would have polled the whole ERG who would have said they hated it. Would that mean they get rolled up into a Remain/Reject bucket?

    If the first question was "are you sick of Brexit and do you want me to sod off and stop bothering you?" I think we would know the answer and it would attract a large % in the poll.

    If all the polls point towards Brexit being cancelled then you end up with a problem because a) the EU MEP elections didn't show that, why was May constantly winning in the polls until recently when the extension collapsed her support combined with Farage returning and c) why is Boris winning in the polls? The Lib Dems and Labour would be out in front, even Corbyn aside surely?
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  8. #1648
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Pain View Post
    The banana skin that was Mrs May’s ‘deal’ is still lying around and I think Boris’s foot is hovering over it, like some Wile E. Coyote cartoon character. Will he…? Won’t he…? Oh No! He’s stepped back from the banana skin with a knowing smirk on his face, only to fall backwards over a precipitous cliff, while Road Runner zips smartly along, stepping on the banana skin without any misfortune whatsoever…. Choose your own hidden meaning, folks.

    More:

    Terry, have folks’ feelings about the Referendum result and subsequent Brexit really changed? I can answer this from a personal, almost valedictory standpoint. I’d made up my mind more than forty years ago that, if I were ever given the chance to vote to leave the EU, I’d jump at the chance. Now, having witnessed the EU’s noose of misappropriated authority and bureaucracy tightening year upon year around the UK’s neck, and the way in which they have behaved in the three-and-a-half years since my democratic vote to leave was counted in the majority, I have to say that my antipathy towards the EU is cast in stone for all time.


    Almost valedictory…? Well, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings I Got The Brexit Blues (no more) and dances The Last Brexit Waltz….
    An ACME Brexit, it turns up in a box...and fails to work. "Meep Meep!"

    I believe some have changed, yes. Some will have seen how things played out and switched to Leave for some of the reasons Leavers have cited about the EU and their deal making. Others will have switched to Remain because they know more now or fear the outcome from 3 years of endless bad news. Some voted Remain because they didn't think Leave could win anyway or didn't vote at all because of that. Those at the fringes on either side will have hardened as the debate has become even more toxic.

    However, that's a long way from what we are being told that the UK wants to change it's mind. We had polls for years leading up to the referendum and many of those said we wanted to stay. We are very split and because of this it's impossible to say without a very large poll i.e. referendum. Otherwise one day we are Leave, another Remain.

    If they want to know they need to re-run the original. Neither side wants that for their own reasons though (I mean politicians, not us). Besides it's easy to try to influence a new one with naff vs very naff and then declare it a revoke win when no one wants naff no matter what side they are on.

    I can't say I know anyone who has changed their opinion but I have seen people declare it online. Obviously there will be some sock puppets in there but it's unrealistic not to believe some will just as they do after any election.

    I was originally just over the edge into Remain but ended up a soft Leaver. The attitude of the EU since has only backed up opinions I held about how they operate but I still see many good things about EU membership and if there was hope of change then I could swing. But I don't see any hope of change and the EU has only backed that up with "more EU" rather than learning the lessons of 2016. But the thing is the direction of travel is not one the UK is fully behind anyway.

    I was a baby when the first referendum took place (so my knowledge of the EU was probably on a par with many in Parliament now ) but do you believe we were taken in with a bad deal from the beginning? Were our strengths at the time services and not manufacturing, the opposite of Germany? I understand from those who were it was largely sold to them as a future with cheaper goods they can enjoy and it was the young that were campaigning against it on Benn's side (and now we have a Benn Act trying to get in the way ).
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  9. #1649
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Mrs Merkel raises the issue of the UK's services market:

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...cid=spartanntp

    This is something that has really fallen off the radar after the first 6 months of the referendum result when we were bombarded about banks leaving us. It will be interesting to see where this goes since it's our big industry.
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  10. #1650
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    Re: the EU & the UK

    Quote Originally Posted by Pain View Post
    An interesting news link you’ve helpfully provided, Terry. In fact, so interesting it’s worth quoting, emphasising and repeating what for me is the message in Mrs Merkel’s words:

    ‘“With the departure of Great Britain, a potential competitor will of course emerge for us,” Mrs Merkel told journalists at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Sunday.

    “That is to say, in addition to China and the United States of America, there will be Great Britain as well.”’

    […] Central to that approach was Mrs May’s commitment to a “level playing field” after Brexit, which would have kept the UK aligned to EU competition and tax rules as well as social and environmental protections.

    ‘But Mr Johnson scrapped the commitment earlier this month, signalling the UK will become a direct competitor with the EU as soon as it leaves the bloc.’ (via MSN I News: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexi...cid=spartanntp )

    Are you worried or optimistic about this outcome, Terry? Is there genuine concern from Mrs Merkel that GB will once again be an independent player on the world stage, playing in the premier league? Does the prospect worry China? Was Mr Obama wary of this Brexit outcome, but not Mr Trump?

    Today:

    From the news this morning, it looks like all those negotiations are yet again heading to nought or, in other words, another Groundhog Day. And I still think that plucky little devil ‘No Deal’ is hiding behind Boris’s bulky framework….
    Optimistic. I don't listen to willy wavers like Macron who just wants his legacy. Merkel is always more cautious, pragmatic and less prone to waving flags about.

    There is no doubt when nations club together they represent a greater power but that doesn't mean they aren't a significant power individually. We are powerful when it comes to services, security, military, etc. Germany aren't powerful in the military sense anymore but they are a major power in manufacturing for one. I suspect if Germany decided to leave tomorrow we would be seeing an about turn on many issues by the hardcore believers who think the UK will sink into the abyss because surely Germany would too as they couldn't cope outside the EU which they would never admit? But they would and from a manufacturing point of view alone they would be a major global competitor as they are now.

    So, Mrs Merkel is just acknowledging that fact. It's already dismissed because we wouldn't be the UK or China but is that really the point? Is the world only about a few countries and the rest amount to nothing? And it's not like all associations are being disbanded just because one country is leaving the EU.

    Obama was just a user. The minute we voted out he was cosying up to Germany as "our special relationship". He just used us like Japan do, a way into the SM and hearing what goes on behind those closed doors. Regardless of Dem or Rep the US looks after itself. I'm not sure how Trump feels about that issue but like all American politicians they don't want major competitors anyway just as Russia and China don't.

    The news is just a mess of "deal close", "Deal far away", "source says", etc at the moment. One minute one says a deal is likely this month and the next news article sees another senior diplomat say the opposite. But I don't see a deal without an extension now, it's too late for a Parliamentary vote and the legal eagles for Remain are already compiling their next case to stop such a vote due to a UK law being in the way regarding NI taxation.

    The EU are pushing for a NI Non backstop. A customs union that isn't called one or a backstop. This will be a permanent one and they want to dilute the Stormont lock to make it even more EU governed. I say hold fast and get the extension in. Don't jump just to fulfil a promise to leave if that deal means giving in.

    If it goes the way the EU now want it we will still have the WTO problem. NI would be applying EU duties from what I can see and the rest of the UK whatever they want to levy. That's a breach of WTO rules...unless we just follow EU duties (can you hear me groaning? ).
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