the EU & the UK

[MyNameIsTerry]

So Boris got his proposed deal past the EU then. Despite the push backs in the media the couple of weeks what is mentioned in here seems to be what he proposed. Over to our own Parliament to eff it up: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/...arnier-brexit/

[MyNameIsTerry]

So is it a deal or a white bunny rabbit that’s in the act of being magicked out of Boris’s top hat? I thought I glimpsed a flash of white, but that might have been the flag the DUP are accusing Boris and his team of waving in concessionary-fashion. But Terry, you’re right; it’s a big mess from ordinary folks' viewpoint, and not helped by the media doing its usual thing of pumping out conjecture and calling it ‘news reporting’ as a substitute for fact.

The chances of any ‘deal’ getting through parliament still seem pretty slim. I’m of the opinion now that even if a ‘deal’ saying we’re staying in the EU (ye gods and little fishes, NO! NO! NEVER!) came before HoC, the remainers would vote against it on principle

Well it looks like the rabbit might have popped out of the hat all the way down to the line (isn't that how EU negotiations tend to end up? ) so we shall see where this goes.

I suspect you're right though, I can see Corbyn saying no just because it's not his deal no matter which option is picked. I'm a little behind tonight but I have spotted online threads about Swinson caving into supporting Boris if he attaches a confirmatory referendum (and there are some stories popping up about a "win" for MP's regarding this but I haven't caught up yet) which seems at odds with their revoke at all costs stance (does this add some weight to the rumblings she would prop up Boris in a coalition to gain power as they did before? ).

The SNP will block all the way, No Deal plays into their hands anyway if they want push independence over their economy (sound familiar? Yet that's patriotism to many). The Greens will do what they do too. The DUP might have to take one for the team (is there merit in a t-shirt with the slogan "bend over for Boris"? ). The Labour rebels might be more than originally thought and I could see them voting for it despite Labour's deselection rumblings and whip removals. No idea about "the dying fly" party under Soubry (that really should be their logo ). Farage hates it but then he's only a threat at a GE, maybe. Plaid = see SNP/Greens.

The DUP have a problem in that now the government can become Remainers and quote "NI people voted to Remain" back at them whilst twisting their arm for a deal (cash?). They get an opt out so more power than Labour would give them. It solves the problems the people of NI are really concerned about and ticks the box regarding terrorism, all Ireland economy, etc.

EDIT: On the 2nd ref issue it's Letwin's call for a vote on Saturday which the speaker can select. It was narrow but it will obviously get a new vote. If we do get the ref then it's going to interesting considering there is the threat of No Deal and the impacts onto NI which Boris can say his deal mitigates. Obviously Remain is what they want on that ticket but if Leave wins again it's going to be hard going as it might be seized as a No Deal opportunity. The EU are going to get even more frustrated if it drags on further and from Juncker's comments about stopping further delays now a deal is done it's obvious any extension will be on the basis of allowing Parliament to push through any Acts for the deal. If Parliament turn it down on Saturday the EU are at some point going to have to force the issue even if they give an extension. I can also see Corbyn using Saturday (and beyond) to try to amend it to add the workers rights, environmental protections, etc back in but that means going back to the EU again (as Boris was supposed to be stripping this out, although we haven't see the full text, and Barnier's comments seem to reflect the WA is purely focussed on the original 3 issues leaving the rest to the transition period).

EDIT 2: Letwin's amendment is to vote to ensure the whole process is followed for a WA Act. At the time the media were reporting he was adding a 2nd referendum amendment which has turned out to be Kyle's amendment where No Deal is voted through.

[MyNameIsTerry]

So Boris got his proposed deal past the EU then. Despite the push backs in the media the couple of weeks what is mentioned in here seems to be what he proposed. Over to our own Parliament to eff it up: https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/...arnier-brexit/

From what I can see from this:

- Backstop gone.
- NI legally stays in UK customs territory BUT aligns to SM & EUCU for the purposes of frictionless trade, all Ireland economy, etc.
- Stormont lock applies but moved to 8 years in certain circumstances (Stormont not sitting) which seems no big deal.
- Rebates to importers where products stay in NI (the EU wanted clarification on this "Track & Trace" policy so they must be happy enough to give it 2 years or so to be implemented to agree to this in the deal as it was seen as a stumbling block a few days ago?). This still seems like a lot of work is needed as it will end up another smuggling issue on both sides of the border.
- Irish Sea border with customs checks into NI from the UK.
- NI applies EU tariffs to EU countries, and countries they have FTA's with I presume, where the goods will enter ROI or the rest of the EU. But UK tariffs on anything that stays in NI or the rest of the UK. This seems a bit of a fudge to get around the WTO issue as NI applies UK tariffs externally and only applies some sort of pass on charge? What about if our tariffs are higher though does that mean a rebate rather than a charge to the 3rd country? I still think WTO will have an issue with NI charging one set of tariffs to 3rd countries in line with the UK and one set to EU countries but the question is whether this constitutes a FTA? If it does then WTO won't care. The EU seem happy with it though so it's hopeful.
- Labour amendments (worker's rights, environmental protections, etc) removed.
- ROI must be happy with it to get this far?

I guess we need to see the Political Declaration though which might include things about rights. Hopefully citizens on both sides are protected (there are some questions about how pensions, healthcare, etc will work that need clarifying and some ex pats are already feeling the pressure from local contact).

If this passes we then leave (unlikely 31/10 though, not enough time to push it through anyway) and get into the 2 year transition period. Everything stays the same and all the No Deal emergency planning it pushed back 2 years to the end of the transition date. No doubt the EU won't mind extending that anyway to protect businesses and cut down on all the extra red tape of crash out. And transition will need to cover the amendments to customs checks on both sides which is a reasonable amount of time.

NI has an issue in that they can still choose to diverge by leaving this UK-EU agreement. That then raises the exact same problem we have now (and is a backstop without calling it a backstop in a way) but the good thing about this is that is have effectively been removed from the rest of the UK's negotiations to leave the EU. An issue that has halted things gets kicked down the road and then it won't have the power it has now...and NI might find themselves with less support if the political winds change and what NI wants starts upsetting what could be important to both Leave & Remain sides.

[Quinn1]

If this all goes through? I will miss all the fun,now i’ll have too watch Aussie parliament arguing over Drought relief and Trump and his antics.

[lebonvin]

Hey Pain

Your sure living up to your handle lol

Even if I never knew nothing about your Brexit gig which I don't, I just look at the folk yous aligning yourself with what is alt right, private school elitists, racists, soccer hooligans, billionaires etc and I know the opposite must be right. You worried about a Vitta vyreauxracy!? Try filling in a US income tax form. You got that coming to yous and worse. Your an old man, you should care more about the younger folk who will gotta live in a mini USA

[lebonvin]

Hot damn I forgotten the obvious

Our supreme commander wants Brexit. That alone should be enough to settle any arguments.

Pain yous arguments are boring and one track. You could never win a mass debate

Enjoy your Havana cigar and Napoleon's

Charlie

[lebonvin]

Phoney liberal

It's almost beggars belief that yous still think the same way today as at age 15 decades ago. The world has changed since Charlie Chaplin but you aint.

It all comes down to whether yous care about the common good but you already made it clear you got a selfish personal grudge against anything what ain't British shoot me if I'm wrong

God save the Queen (and her fascist regime)

Charlie

[MyNameIsTerry]

Boris, with a roll on the drums and a final flourish, materialised not just a white rabbit but also a deal with a faint odour of over-heated Mrs May’s traditional English fudge. But the all-significant sword-of-Damocles ‘Backstop’ and its restrictive non-Brexit terms and conditions has sort of been taken out of the mix (and replaced with ‘new improved’ ingredients ). However, what serious Brexit-watchers suspected is NI becomes a piggy-in-the-middle if this deal stands, and there are implications. As George ‘belted’ Galloway said on RT last night, this new arrangement could become the fast-track to a reunified Ireland… and for once the bloke was actually talking sense! I can’t blame the DUP for being up in arms – they and their country they represent are going to be squeezed out of existence unless some other safeguard is introduced to protect them.

Are we really on our way out of the EU? It’s too early to say, but Boris seems to be jogging things in the right direction. Now, if he’d become David Cameron’s successor all those years ago instead of Mrs May….

No rabbits were harmed in the making of this deal.

Juncker says no extension, Macron says no extension. Merkel says extension, Tusk says extension. A united EU?

The reality is it's very unlikely Boris could get his deal through by the 31st because it the Benn Act requires not only the vote but the process to formalise it. So, we are talking the Lords for a start and they are bound to through it back. We have Corbyn who will want to frustrate it by muddying it with workers rights, environmental protections, etc (which we can just put through via our own Parliament without an international treaty). Swinson will want her 3nd ref. Blackford will want an independence vote because...his milkman delivered his full fat late so they obviously need to untie themselves from Westminster! The DUP will want an extension to fight off this Irish Sea division I suppose? To be fair it's not enough time to review something so huge anyway so MP's should have more time to read through it (hasn't one Labour MP said she refuses to and will vote against it regardless? ).

So, the EU can be clever here and say they are offering extension but only to allow the deal to be legally processed at our end. This would be if Boris wins his vote on Saturday (today). That might focus some remainer minds but to be honest I think we all know it's all BS and they will all change and flip flop for another 50 years if they are allowed.

Galloway is right in that it might mean a quicker push to reunification but if that's what NI & ROI want then that's up to them. NI legally remains in the UK custom's area and not the EU one per the EU themselves which is better than the backstop which legally put NI under the EU wing. At least with this solution NI duties can be controlled by the UK and some fudging can be done to make it fit with the EU.

A question I have is whether NI can diverge on standards as long as it's selling away from the EU? They can with duty but what about product standards? If they can diverge it reopens the border issue again so it may be a matter of aligning with EU standards no matter which way they ship. That does take away from us but until technology moves on it's a better compromise than something like a backstop which is inescapable.

I have no idea how they are going to prevent goods exported to NI not reaching the EU where UK duties have been applied. There is some text about EU officials being present for inspection but how they are going to see into the future to detect someone selling on months later, or who always intended to send it over the border, I have no idea. It would seem more a policing issue and a reactive strategy as problems are found. Even if the UK supports the EU on this it doesn't matter as it's about exporters who may choose to smuggle. There will be a body set up to work this out so I expect it's one for the transition period.

Another question remains about rebates. What if the EU rate is lower than the UK duty? Are we going to give money to exporters or will the text say it's tough luck? There could be future legal challenges to that.

Merkel has now said they understand the direction the UK is taking for the first time. Under May she said it was unclear what the future relationship would look like. Is this because May tried to fudge things for everyone into a deal which ended up looking poor?

This looks like our best chance to leave and it's happened impressively quickly. It took years to get anywhere under May. Whilst much of that was about research, and Boris has nabbed elements of May's deal, it still seemed very slow after May had published her original deal. She didn't have the ERG support Boris has but also it felt like she was beaten down under the endless questions and "are we there yet" in Parliament that just resulted in it taking longer to produce anything.

The thing with DUP might be that they will end up losing anyway. The country is still pretty split on reunification, isn't it? But there are other parties nipping at the heels of both the DUP and Sinn Fein, more moderate parties. NI did vote to Remain but it wasn't that big when you consider the difference with Gibraltar:

NI
Leave = 44.2% (349,442)
Remain = 55.8% (470,707)

Voter turnout = 62.69%

Gibraltar
Leave = 4.1% (823)
Remain = 95.9% (19,322)

Voter turnout = 83.6%

Gibraltar has big issues with citizens travelling across the Spanish border daily to work. But no one cares. They also worry about the Spanish trying to take them back. But no one cares.

A much larger number turned out. You would have thought a massive turnout for NI given the huge impacts into them and possibility of terrorism resurfacing. But no, lots of voter apathy. But everyone cares!

So, the issue of NI is more complex still. What do the rest want? Are they picked up polling? That seems unlikely when for something so important to them, and both sides of the Unionist and Republican coin big reasons to get involved, just isn't quite as important as it has seemed for the past few years since. Mobilising these people might change how things go for the DUP, Sinn Fein or anybody else. Why don't they care about the border? Or did they just think there was no point voting in that referendum? If a NI specific one was ran and they still didn't vote it would be telling us not everyone is so bothered about the problems.

But removing the border issue from the WA by nudging it down the road helps the rest of the UK as the EU (And ROI) can't hide behind it saying no to everything. If it's between that and a UK wide backstop, or a backstop at all, then it's better in my eyes.

[MyNameIsTerry]

HMS Boris was sunk before he even left the harbour.

To be fair to Parliament this was all very rushed so a vote towards the end of next week would be better. But that's it. I'm sure there will be lots of proposed amendments as Corbyn tries to add bits back in but hopefully this will all be halted otherwise it will just end up like last time again and no one will vote it through - him included!

Get the letter of to the EU over the weekend. They extend to perhaps the end of the year which Tusk always said he supported anyway (forget about listening to Macron's bluster, just like Hollande before him, and both will fall inline with what Merkel advises. Funny that Macron has said he was right last time and stuck to his guns...erm, you gave in and allowed the extension ). Hopefully they will impose something onto this extension for it to be on the basis of getting the current agreed deal through the Commons and Lords to Royal Assent.

But I'm sure we are in for another couple of months of nonsense from the media and games from the Commons.

The current legal challenge failed in Scotland. It did seem to be jumping the gun to stop Parliament discussing the deal because a previous Act may stand in the way...they just remove the blocking Act. I would expect this would be for the ECJ too since this is an agreement with the EU who believe it is legal. And the wording is supposed to say NI stays in the UK customs area and just implements EU rules, it doesn't say NI is in the EU customs area. So, it would probably fail in court anyway but then these are all desperate attempts by legal bods creaming the cash and making names for themselves (I wonder if they give a toss which way it ends up?).

[MyNameIsTerry]

That’s it! Terry…. A fully-binding toss of the coin! But, as fickle Lady Luck lies at the moment, I’d bet as an absolute certainty it’d come down on its edge.

Hark…

They say we’re young and we don’t know….

Shall we meet here for another update in, say, three-and-a-half-years?

I don't know, Pain, I can imagine there are a few double headed coins floating around that place.

Three and a half years and how many deals and PM's sounds about right.

Have to laugh, Letwin getting lauded as some sort of Remain top bloke. The man who defrauded us in his expenses. Whilst they were cheering outside Parliament I wonder if they also heard him say he would vote to back Boris' deal anyway? Imagine having Letwin as your integrity compass? Ken Clarke too. Now Amber Rudd, again her principles seem to be variable.

It feels like this deal might go through but some feel he messed up not pushing on with the vote on Saturday as now the slippery snakes will create more obstacles this week. That does make sense. The whole Labour CU thing might re-raise it's head and Corbyn will want to add the protections back in that May gave into. Then we have the 2nd referendum which they plan on trying.

Tusk has said they will see how we go on Monday before the talk about the extension date. I bet they are hoping his deal passes so they can get on with it.