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Thread: UK election predictions?

  1. #41
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Noivous View Post
    Wasn't it Boris that called for the election? If that's the case I would imagine he's quite confident. Though I've read recently where the gap is narrowing But that is typical of most elections when they near. All's I know is many US Presidents have come and gone during my lifetime and I just keep getting up and going to work.

    N.
    Yes, he tried and they all blocked it. Then the LibDems made a big mistake in offering to support it in an attempt to get a 2nd referendum and here we are. The Tories have been well ahead in all the polls ever since May went and The Brexit Party has all but fizzled out as voters are returning to their normal homes.

    Yes, the media said the gap has closed. The next day the other "wing" of the media published the next poll saying it had widened again. The reality is that the polls have been like this all the time but it's which media is choosing to highlight something to attempt to swing people. If you look at the polls tracker on Wiki you can see the trends and the one the media were talking about was one of the <10% ones "gap into single figures blah blah blah" which you will see has happened many times so it's BS media crap as usual. Obviously not all polls are equal anyway and some scrutiny of the questioning, and chosen few (has anyone ever met anyone who has been in one of these polls?), may depend upon which side of the debate commissioned the poll

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election
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  2. #42
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phill2 View Post
    Not that I know of but it would be great if the QLD mob went.
    It might have been this then, I can't remember:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tored-document
    https://www.theguardian.com/australi...top-judge-says

    Seems like a very poor attempt to show the Mayor up and he's got them by the danglies
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  3. #43
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    It might have been this then, I can't remember:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australi...tored-document
    https://www.theguardian.com/australi...top-judge-says

    Seems like a very poor attempt to show the Mayor up and he's got them by the danglies
    Just the usual BS - nothing serious.
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  4. #44
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Noivous View Post
    Wasn't it Boris that called for the election? If that's the case I would imagine he's quite confident. Though I've read recently where the gap is narrowing But that is typical of most elections when they near. All's I know is many US Presidents have come and gone during my lifetime and I just keep getting up and going to work.

    N.
    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    Yes, he tried and they all blocked it. Then the LibDems made a big mistake in offering to support it in an attempt to get a 2nd referendum and here we are. The Tories have been well ahead in all the polls ever since May went and The Brexit Party has all but fizzled out as voters are returning to their normal homes.

    Yes, the media said the gap has closed. The next day the other "wing" of the media published the next poll saying it had widened again. The reality is that the polls have been like this all the time but it's which media is choosing to highlight something to attempt to swing people. If you look at the polls tracker on Wiki you can see the trends and the one the media were talking about was one of the <10% ones "gap into single figures blah blah blah" which you will see has happened many times so it's BS media crap as usual. Obviously not all polls are equal anyway and some scrutiny of the questioning, and chosen few (has anyone ever met anyone who has been in one of these polls?), may depend upon which side of the debate commissioned the poll

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election
    N, just as an addition this may not solve anything either. Boris is expected by many to win this, some believe with a majority. That may sound like Brexit gets passed and we all move on a stage? But his Brexit Bill still have to be passed which means back to Parliament to vote.

    There are 650 seats in our Parliament. For a party to form a majority it needs 326 (so 50%+1). But then these MP's can vote against their own party or abstain. Sinn Fein don't take their seats so auto abstain in all votes which means (currently) 7 seats are unused. However, when it comes to Brexit we see all sorts of games and it is not beyond reason to find Boris losing to a coalition of other parties if his own MP's won't vote to support him. But that does mean the Noes need to beat them without those Sinn Fein seats. In the current climate this is possible because of the split nature over Brexit and despite a new party more likely to be onboard with the current strategy.

    This is the current breakdown:

    https://members.parliament.uk/partie...ate=2019-11-05

    The Speaker has the casting vote in deadlock but convention means he will vote with the status quo. There are only 2 parties on there that are Leave committed. One, the DUP, have been shafted by Boris and have been vocal about scuppering his deal hoping for a harder Brexit that doesn't annex NI in the process. Every other party on there have been part of the delaying so many of them will just collaborate again and we are yet again stuck in limbo.

    So, ideally Boris needs more than a 326 majority to account for a small % of those who vote against or abstain as well as the smaller parties like the DUP who could oppose them due to tribal issues.

    Another scenario is yet another minority government. In this case we will see both Tory and Labour try to form a government although I believe convention states the highest number of seats means first bite at the cherry. But what if that's Boris and he can't get the confidence of the Commons? That could mean a backdoor Corbyn if he can. This takes us back into the plotting of Remain groups.

    The Change UK lot are most likely to lose their seats to the major parties they left (what a massive failure this enterprise was, the party emblem should be a dying fly ) as they may not be very popular locally anyway e.g. Ann Sourby who has spent the last 3 years a hard Remainer despite a Leave constituency which is fine but then she has been quite vocal about her constituents not being educated enough as covered by local media at the time. So, in a seat with a new Tory they will pick up her traditional voters and the Labour candidate will pick up their usual. No Labour voter is surely going to pick Soubry who is a Tory of old and the only Tory voters she picks up are the possible LibDem ones looking for a more moderate MP/party. This party is a likely wipe out but then on some issues they back their old Tory roots anyway (although they are Remain committed on Brexit issues).

    If Boris gets a good majority then he will likely romp home with votes on his bill very quickly and we move forward. The other circumstances could mean more zombie Parliaments and likely more GEs to try to change it.

    An interesting outcome with this would be how it addresses the medias message about Brexit wanting to be cancelled or needing a revote. If Boris romps home (not sure any of us want to picture a "romping Boris"? ) then they are going to find it hard to continue stating this. The other issue though is Corbyn. The bigger the Boris majority the more likely it will also be seen as a no to Corbynism. That will be quite a kick in the nads for Labour and they will surely have to reconsider how they rebrand themselves away from Corbyn to stand a future chance. If they won't then we could be in a situation where Boris could do anything and fear nothing at the ballot box, a criticism Labour have been facing for some time already.
    Last edited by MyNameIsTerry; 10-12-19 at 07:45. Reason: Fixing Emoji Code
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  5. #45
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phill2 View Post
    Just the usual BS - nothing serious.
    It's amazing what is normal these days now we have the Donald. I wonder if they all feel they need to up their game to get noticed in the scandal stakes?
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  6. #46
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    It's amazing what is normal these days now we have the Donald. I wonder if they all feel they need to up their game to get noticed in the scandal stakes?
    If I was a yank I'd rather the Don than OBummer as many that I talk to over there have said.
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  7. #47
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phill2 View Post
    If I was a yank I'd rather the Don than OBummer as many that I talk to over there have said.
    It's going to be funny if he gets re-elected. Certain quarters will probably self combust.

    Can't say I ever rated Obama much.

    It was funny to see some US media complaining that Trump has authorised a hit on that major terrorist leader. Obama was the great hero for his hit...or did he rope in and deop him himself (the fuss that was made of him)? Will we get a Hollywood film for the Donald signing a form?
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  8. #48
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    The Don will get back in no problem
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  9. #49
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phill2 View Post
    The Don will get back in no problem
    I think he will but the Democrats are definitely more aligned with my policies than Donald Trump and the Republicans.
    I thought Obama was a great gift on the world stage for the USA, he was seen as a statesman and that he was an aspirational President.
    Im well aware that the USA has differing opinions on its Presidents to the rest of the world though.
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  10. #50
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    Re: UK election predictions?

    I don't know that you and President Trump are that different from one another, Mezz.

    Tell me if you agree wih any of this stuff.

    The lowest unemployment among blacks in the history of the country.
    An extremely robust economy.
    Lowest unemployment overall in over 50 years.
    Controlling illegal immigration.
    Increase in middle income wages
    Getting out of the Middle East
    Stopping the US from trying to be the worlds police.

    There's more but I think you see the point.

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