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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
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    503

    Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    I know I may sound a bit on the negative side here, but I (an no doubt many others) am finding the frequent 'chopping and changing' of CV stats here in the UK every few days extremely confusing to say the least. Yesterday they said that the number of both newly confirmed CV cases and fatalities had slowed a bit, or at least levelled off for three consecutive days, and now there is mention of the ONS coming on board and adding further to the stats, with deaths occurring (and having occurred) in non-hospital environments. Not to mention the fact that changes were already made last Thursday (26th March) to include the full 24-hour period instead of the previous 12-hour period, which could very well have been one of the factors responsible for the sudden 'jump' in both CV-related deaths and newly-confirmed 'active' cases, and now this added on top.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not in anyway complaining, just extremely miffed.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    2,554

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    I seem to remember this happening with China too. Itís really sad isnít it.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
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    503

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    I suppose it's in order to try and make the stats more representative.

    Mind you, this latest 'record jump' in new cases and deaths reported by the press will obviously make for more exciting reading as usual, as far as editorial teams are concerned.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
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    503

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    There seems to be a lot of inconsistency on the reporting of all of this at the moment as some sources have suggested that the record rises of both CV cases and deaths since yesterday were could have been partly attributed to the changes in the way the stats are counted, whilst others just seem to be stating them on a 'face value' basis with no real explanation, as if it is a genuine 'record jump' in actual cases/deaths and inadvertently having digs at the authorities, etc. Even the BBC seem to be at it ATM. So confusing.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2016
    Posts
    509

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    Quite honestly over here in the states I’ve just stopped looking at the numbers. We know it’s going to continually rise over the next few weeks so I’m hoping that as it does, if I don’t focus so much on the numbers maybe it will keep my anxiety a little more in line over it all. Maybe not, but we’ll see.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
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    503

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    Quote Originally Posted by glassgirlw View Post
    Quite honestly over here in the states I’ve just stopped looking at the numbers. We know it’s going to continually rise over the next few weeks so I’m hoping that as it does, if I don’t focus so much on the numbers maybe it will keep my anxiety a little more in line over it all. Maybe not, but we’ll see.
    And here they still seem to be downplaying the total recovery rates, as if there is some kind of hidden agenda involved (which I could be completely wrong, of course), and at the expense of many people's mental health.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Posts
    678

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    There seems to be a lot of inconsistency on the reporting of all of this at the moment as some sources have suggested that the record rises of both CV cases and deaths since yesterday were could have been partly attributed to the changes in the way the stats are counted, whilst others just seem to be stating them on a 'face value' basis with no real explanation, as if it is a genuine 'record jump' in actual cases/deaths and inadvertently having digs at the authorities, etc. Even the BBC seem to be at it ATM. So confusing.
    Even bigger rises today: 4,324/563. The inconsistency of how they are counting these is a problem.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Posts
    503

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pamplemousse View Post
    Even bigger rises today: 4,324/563. The inconsistency of how they are counting these is a problem.
    That's exactly the problem all along, as nothing really seem to be telling us as to whether it's genuine or accountable for the latest changes, it's all seemingly very vague.

    Sadly it's even more fodder for both the media and certain factions of our society who seem to revel in the 'worst-case scenario' narratives, CV or not.

    Anyway, I'll shut up now!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    254

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    Johns Hopkins figures on recovery are more up to date - 179 rather than Worldometer's 135.

    Even so, given the ever-changing methodology of accumulating data it's hard to make out what the situation is in the UK. Because they are NOT TESTING anyone except those poor souls who end up in hospital. Surely better to concentrate on antibody testing - as the Oxford study recommends - to work out the greater mass of the population who have had it, rule them out, and then concentrate on treating the remainder.

    Rational thinking would surely tend towards the possibility that a lot of people had this virus earlier in the year - back in February and even January - but mistook it for seasonal cold and mild flu. They are all extensions of the same virus group. Surely better to rule these cases out - and let some of the population get back into working and getting business back on its feet. The lockdowns in Italy and Spain have taken their toll of shutting both infected and asymptomatic people up together and creating perfect conditions for viral spread. The China case was total lockdown under a strict regime and it did widespread testing of the Wuhan and Hubei populations, but Europe was too slack in enforcing these kind of measures and allowed unrestricted travel and movement of people whilst they were making their minds up to it.

    Only Germany seems to have had the nouse to adopt the Oxford methodology ... vorsprung durch teknik!

    And yes the media are loving this easy news feed of apocalyptic scenarios and skewed data.
    __________________
    Dorabella

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
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    503

    Re: Chopping and changing of CV stats counting, confusing.

    Quote Originally Posted by dorabella View Post
    Johns Hopkins figures on recovery are more up to date - 179 rather than Worldometer's 135.

    Even so, given the ever-changing methodology of accumulating data it's hard to make out what the situation is in the UK. Because they are NOT TESTING anyone except those poor souls who end up in hospital. Surely better to concentrate on antibody testing - as the Oxford study recommends - to work out the greater mass of the population who have had it, rule them out, and then concentrate on treating the remainder.

    Rational thinking would surely tend towards the possibility that a lot of people had this virus earlier in the year - back in February and even January - but mistook it for seasonal cold and mild flu. They are all extensions of the same virus group. Surely better to rule these cases out - and let some of the population get back into working and getting business back on its feet. The lockdowns in Italy and Spain have taken their toll of shutting both infected and asymptomatic people up together and creating perfect conditions for viral spread. The China case was total lockdown under a strict regime and it did widespread testing of the Wuhan and Hubei populations, but Europe was too slack in enforcing these kind of measures and allowed unrestricted travel and movement of people whilst they were making their minds up to it.

    Only Germany seems to have had the nouse to adopt the Oxford methodology ... vorsprung durch teknik!

    And yes the media are loving this easy news feed of apocalyptic scenarios and skewed data.
    As I've said before in other CV-related threads on here, It is very likely that myself and my parents had CV back in February (and mistook it for the 'normal' cold/flu) for just over a fortnight in total and then recovered, but my brother somehow wasn't convinced at the time as he said that we would have probably have felt like we were almost dying and feeling virtually unable to move had we actually had CV, but then again he admitted to having mild CV-like symptoms last week and has now more or less recovered and didn't ring NHS 111, but still followed all the other recommended self-isolation procedures.

    I know I am sounding like a pessimist here, but it does seem like the authorities here in the UK have been dragging their heels over a lot of the antibody testing, which as you said, might help to define the situation a lot better, which would in turn lead to more stats on recoveries being published and certain restrictions pertaining to the current lockdowns possibly being eased, with those who were previously affected but now fully recovered being able to return to work, etc. And I also wish we had entered our lockdown at least one week earlier than we actually did, which would have probably slowed the spread much quicker.

    Still the 'makeshift' Nightingale Hospital at the ExCel Centre in London will be opening at the end of this week, and others are now in the process of being set up in or near other major cities throughout the country, which should hopefully help to ease the pressures on existing facilities.

    And another likely reason for the sudden jump in newly-confirmed CV cases since yesterday (and Monday's figures also subsequently being revised upwards) could be that more people have been tested for the virus once again, which seems to have been rather on the erratic side over the past few weeks, again, another inconsistency.

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