Exiting lockdown. How best to do it?

[Gary A]

Most of us in the UK are probably at a point of irritation right now as to the lack of information about this coming from our government. Personally, I don’t believe they know what to do and this is why they are refraining from having the discussion right now.

So, what are people’s thoughts on this? Do we ease gradually? Just go for broke and try to quickly achieve herd immunity? Go in and out of lockdown until a vaccine is found and distributed?

Personally, I think herd immunity is a no go. 60% of our population must become infected to achieve this, we don’t have enough evidence to suggest that natural immunity lasts for a significant enough period of time to halt transmission even if 60% do become infected.

I fully believe we have to break the UK into sections right now. Places like London and the midlands that have been hit hard should be zoned in on with a first wave of testing and contact tracing. Get transmission under control in these areas then gradually migrate testing and contact tracing to other cities that are less affected and work your way to remote areas eventually.

This would mean that lockdowns could be lifted one by one, rather than just opening the floodgates back up countrywide and starting over again. Testing should be done by designated teams visiting homes. This lessens the risk of transmission by not having folk entering medical settings.

I don’t know, I just don’t see this discussion from our government right now, so has anyone got any other ideas?

[glassgirlw]

I don’t know too much about the U.K. and how the cities are structured - but my state in the US has developed 3D printed nasal swabs and will be starting more expansive drive thru testing over the next couple weeks. They want to get a better idea of the true percentage of the population that is infected. There are also antibody tests that have started to roll out and they want to see how many may possibly already have antibodies. Like you said though, we have no way of knowing that antibodies give you an extended length of immunity to this.

i personally think we’ll see the social distancing requirements continue until vaccine development. Restaurants may reopen but with more expansive measures to condone distancing requirements. Barber shops and salons will probably require use of masks for customers and employees. I think things will reopen in stages, all the while the expanded testing will continue.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

[PanickyGuy]

I know this is specifically pertaining more to the U.K.'s lockdown issues, but I'll give you a U.S. citizen's perspective because it's about the same over here. Now my daughter is a health care worker, and she made some pretty good points as to why "stay at home" or lockdown is necessary until the infection rates are near the bottom of the curve. I'll repeat what she has told me.

1. Hospitals - If they get overwhelmed all over, doctors have to start making choices as to who gets to be on the ventilators and who does without. So it becomes a life and death choice. It gets worse, those who do get ventilators have a 20 - 25% chance of surviving. If by chance they do survive they may have lung scars and/or neurological issues later on. The virus will leave it's mark on you one way or another when you've gotten to that point.

2. They need this virus to spread slowly, not fast with the herd immunity BS, so they can study the virus and find better ways to combat it, if or when a second or third wave hits. By the time a another wave hits, they could be better prepared to contain the hot spots and have treatments that could help with a better outcome then the first time around.

3. If we go with the herd immunity BS, the virus is going to shut most businesses down anyway, because there will be more deaths, more sickness and a crap load of absenteeism. She pointed out what happened at Tysons recently as an example. Even though they tried to take social distancing and PPE cautions, in order to keep on working, just about all their employees got infected anyway and they had to close the plant down for cleaning. That will happen everywhere with businesses if we go the way of herd immunity. The virus will decide if we don't care what happens and let it.

4. Learn from history or be doomed to repeat it. She pointed out, what you see going on now with this virus, happened nearly the same back in 1918 with the H1N1 flu. The similarities are amazing right now, even down to how people behaved over the 1918 flu. Hospitals got overwhelmed, people didn't pay attention or agree with "stay at home" orders, got out and protested in some places, and in places like Philadelphia they even had parades. They got sick and 48 hours later their death tolls was astonishingly high. While at the same time, places like St. Louis, Missouri practiced "stay at home" orders, flattened the curve and had very low death tolls. So because some people didn't care and carried on to their normal routines, the U.S. suffered over 675,000 flu deaths and the world suffered 50 to 100 million worldwide.

So I don't know about ya'll, but she pretty much convinced me. And it's like Trump said, yeah I know he's an idiot, but he got this right at least -if he didn't start shutting things down, although it wasn't soon enough IMO, we would be looking at millions of deaths right now in the U.S. alone. His medical team were projecting that if people didn't start practicing "stay at home" and social distancing and for once in his life I'm glad he listened to them. I just wish some of these state governors over here would get their heads out of their butts and quit trying to jump ahead of the gun, just to get the economy going again. Big mistake!

[WiseMonkey]

Most of us in the UK are probably at a point of irritation right now as to the lack of information about this coming from our government. Personally, I don’t believe they know what to do and this is why they are refraining from having the discussion right now.

So, what are people’s thoughts on this? Do we ease gradually? Just go for broke and try to quickly achieve herd immunity? Go in and out of lockdown until a vaccine is found and distributed?

Personally, I think herd immunity is a no go. 60% of our population must become infected to achieve this, we don’t have enough evidence to suggest that natural immunity lasts for a significant enough period of time to halt transmission even if 60% do become infected.

I fully believe we have to break the UK into sections right now. Places like London and the midlands that have been hit hard should be zoned in on with a first wave of testing and contact tracing. Get transmission under control in these areas then gradually migrate testing and contact tracing to other cities that are less affected and work your way to remote areas eventually.

This would mean that lockdowns could be lifted one by one, rather than just opening the floodgates back up countrywide and starting over again. Testing should be done by designated teams visiting homes. This lessens the risk of transmission by not having folk entering medical settings.

I don’t know, I just don’t see this discussion from our government right now, so has anyone got any other ideas?

We in NZ are going down to Level 3 tomorrow (Tuesday) as our new cases of Covid19 have been in single figures for a week and all our 16 clusters are contained. Those NZers who have returned from overseas are in enforced quarantine for 14 days. We will still have to do distancing of 2m or 1.5m for businesses reopening. Businesses have to have wash stations installed with hand sanitiser etc and follow safety procedures. They have to keep records of who visited, contact numbers etc in case contact tracing is required. Schools will be open to children of essential workers if required, others will remain at home with online learning. Office workers will remain working from home.

Not all business will be reopening, so not restaurants, cafes, hairdressers, barbers, salons, movie theaters, libraries etc or anywhere where people can congregate. Food outlets can do take-a-ways only.
We can extend our bubble (home living group) by one or two people but those people can only have contact with us, no one else.

These may seem extremely cautious measures but this is what it takes to eradicate the virus from our country. We don't want to go backwards. The govt health organisations are carrying out extensive testing in numerous areas around NZ and so far these tests have come up negative, showing that there is no community spread. This testing is ongoing. Today monday, NZ has just 5 new cases. All cases are related to a known source so all is contained (for now).
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12327755

I honestly can't see Britain coming out of isolation until the virus cases are under control so this could takes any months because of the sheer population numbers and the rampant spread of the virus.

[Panicattacka]

This is the new normal, get used to it. You will never have the freedoms and ease of movement you had before.

[NancyW]

This is the new normal, get used to it. You will never have the freedoms and ease of movement you had before.

That's a bit extreme isn't it?

We've survived and overcome many diseases, in time we will overcome this one too.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I agree on the zones approach. Some areas are bad and they need a tailored approach compared to those with fewer cases. The tube is a prime example of something you just can't handle in a situation like this but it's a unique situation requiring a unique solution.

But even opening up areas will still see them impacted by neighbouring worse hit ones remaining locked down. A lot of people travel between areas in the West Midlands that vary in how they have been impacted. I wouldn't fancy a previous role where I was travelling into those places several times a week until they have been significantly reduced.

Social distancing may as well continue for some time. For many it's not that bad, as in something like shopping where it can be controlled to some extent, or can at least be reduced in various areas of their lives if not all.

[MyNameIsTerry]

That's a bit extreme isn't it?

We've survived and overcome many diseases, in time we will overcome this one too.

Yeah, wars spring to mind. A few generations back saw people's lives change a lot more drastically than this and for a lot longer (permanent for many).

Things look pretty rosy right now compared to my grandparents & parents (the latter being young children back then) days.

I'm still a lot luckier than a lot of people in this world even if this went on for many years.

[Lolalee1]

Yes Terry we are lucky,lucky we aren’t homeless and starving in countries of the D’s shithouse Africa.
My mate is still stuck in the Congo with a shortage of ventilators,masks and gloves she sent me pictures last night and they are not pretty.

[ankietyjoe]

That's a bit extreme isn't it?

We've survived and overcome many diseases, in time we will overcome this one too.

I think the answer to this is yes and no.

The world was a very different place during previous pandemics, where global commuting was unheard of. I would say that 99% of people rarely set foot out of the area they were born in, and the 'new normal' being referred to may have to happen for the foreseeable. It's the contemporary mass movement of people between communities that may be a big stumbling block to recovery.

One of the main problems I'm seeing where I live (and I presume this to be an issue nationwide) is that measures are only effective if people follow them, and people are NOT following them here for the most part, or at least a significant minority aren't. This alone could have measures remain in place for many more months.

I can't see normal returning within 12 months, that's for sure. Depending on how you perceive 'normal'.