Covid-19 discussion thread

[Gary A]

From what I have seen the Zoe stats seems generally to have been the more accurate and/or reliable, but it does seem to me that it really is about time that the government, SAGE and the PHE stop the daily drilling of numbers and associated confusion of how these dictate what we may or may not do or behave. As a lot of scientists have said, the virus has now become endemic and at low transmission level. It isn't going to go to zero-transmission level so we should put that to the back of our minds and get on with life. According to UCL science, we have now breached the herd immunity threshold ... which was what everyone was banging on about last year, and should ensure that this 'pandemic' is truly on the wane.

That’s completely at odds with what UCL actually said. Yes, they reckon the level of immunity generated by natural infection and vaccination could well be at a level that could be called herd immunity, but they also said that just opening the flood gates would then require the percentage of immunity to go higher in order to maintain herd immunity.

Their modelling is based on current data. Current data, obviously, is being collected during pretty strict lockdown measures. It incorporates the risk of catching the virus, the current R rate and of course the degree of immunity within the population. So, end restrictions, the R rate inevitable rises, as does the risk of infection, that in turn renders this particular model completely redundant.

Herd immunity can only truly be called when restrictions are completely gone and the R0 of the virus stays consistently below 1. Unfortunately, we’re still a bit away from that.

[Pamplemousse]

Herd immunity can only truly be called when restrictions are completely gone and the R0 of the virus stays consistently below 1. Unfortunately, we’re still a bit away from that.

I give you the "Swiss Cheese" model.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources...6-2cda6b0acb3f

[Pamplemousse]

Meanwhile, this is what happens when you have a massively-divided society led by a brain-dead far-right populist.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...erica-56723439

[Lencoboy]

Meanwhile, this is what happens when you have a massively-divided society led by a brain-dead far-right populist.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...erica-56723439

Totally unbelievable!

And we've often thought that the British alone were such a society.

[Lencoboy]

Yep, and here is the result:

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-04-12/...edium=referral

Am I surprised by reports of the police doing nothing? Nope. Dick is back to her previous strategy of not wanting to upset the apple cart.

Sounds like a carnival. We just need some pics of dancing coppers now.

Trouble is, the police are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

But of course there's still the odd chance those photos could have been from an earlier time, even pre-pandemic, particularly given the media often have a bit of a habit of reusing stock photos, plus they often add certain imagery to make things look even more dramatic than they really are!

I'm still wondering as to whether or not yesterday's easements were still a tad premature, especially as my dad believes they are, plus renewed scares about the SA variant running riot in south London but on the other hand I can't help but think that we can't stay shut down and keep shutting ourselves away forever more and have to bite the bullet at some point.

However today's ZOE case stats have continued to drop (albeit marginally), now down to 1.6k today vs 1.7k yesterday.

Today's dashboard update is delayed owing to Wales' data being delayed until further notice.

[Lencoboy]

They did also mention on the dashboard site that cases on Sunday (11th April) were removed by error on that date, hence the lower count of 1k, which could very well have been artificial.

[venusbluejeans]

Uggghhh... So my daughter just called. Her and her husband got the 1st dose of the vaccine last week. A day later, both of them started feeling really rough. 3 days later, they're losing taste and smell. Apparently, they were exposed prior to the vax (several at my SIL's workplace tested positive) and both just tested positive. They'll be Ok but they're not feeling the love at the moment and will be quarantining the next two+ weeks

Positive thoughts

FMP.... stop with the covert digs at other members, stop trying to cause an argument, you need to accept that others may have a different opinion to yourself, however much you and other people believe that opinion to be wrong....Maybe try the ignoring is the best policy approach.... please!

[swajj]

lol I can just imagine the emails flying around right now.

[swajj]

I used to get them about certain members. Put your hand up if you’ve had some about me. Seriously admin you have no idea.

[Pamplemousse]

Read elsewhere today; someone lost a colleague to a pulmonary embolism recently.

Said colleague had just gone back on the contraceptive pill.

Edit; looks like admin have been busy with the scissors again, looking at posts above that make no sense.