Covid-19 discussion thread

[Carys]

I only lifted my third lockdown today !! LOL I want more than one day LOL

[Gary A]

I agree with you wholeheartedly that a full-on fourth national lockdown might be a bit of an unwarranted knee-jerk response from the govt as things currently stand, and should only be pursued as an absolute last resort if all other avenues explored beforehand prove to be completely ineffective.

Plus they do believe (at least until further notice) that the Indian variant whilst allegedly having similar properties of contagion to the Kent variant (and most others apart from the original), is no more deadly nor resistant to current vaccines than the Kent variant.

They have mentioned about surge testing being ramped up in areas currently seeing general Covid spikes (irrespective of variants) such as Bolton (NW), Moray (Scotland), parts of Leicester and Nottingham, Long Eaton (East Mids), parts of Gtr London, etc, rather than imposing lockdowns willy-nilly.

I think lockdowns being reimposed anywhere right now in this country would certainly be met with derision and futility!

The idea of lockdown was only ever supposed to be nothing more than a stall. It was to buy time in order to create effective vaccines, run various trials and then finally, get them into people’s arms.

Cases are gently falling, but hospitalisations and deaths are plummeting at a far faster rate. AstraZeneca are now “unblinding” trial participants so they’ll know if they’ve had a vaccine or not. The final data from the trial claims 100% effectiveness against severe illness, an outstanding achievement.

I say all of these things because I think you’re a bit too fixated on case numbers and new variants. Variants will crop up, that’s just how viruses work. The chances of any new variant just magically waltzing through vaccine induced immunity is almost zero. Sure, some may render the vaccines a bit less effective, but completely ineffective? That’s a stretch.

I think you’d be doing yourself a big favour by trying to focus on the positives right now. New cases, as we speak, do not have the same implications that they once did. The vast majority of folk even remotely at risk of a bad outcome from this virus are now wandering around with very high levels of protection from severe illness.

My advice to you is to at least be sure to have some context when you’re analysing new cases and variants. Fixating on these things so closely and with that cloud of dread hanging over you is going to do nothing more than bring you down.

[Pamplemousse]

I keep wondering should we have a fourth national lockdown ASAP in order to nip a potential third wave in the bud while we still can, or would that be overdoing it, and would it be unwarranted, at least at this stage?

Any thoughts?

If you want to start a riot, you go for it.

Seriously - to announce a new lockdown now would cause immense trouble.

[Pamplemousse]

Yes, it is for my brother being in a village in Yorkshire thesedays. However for me being reliant on public transport I can get to some of these places with a similiar level of effort as taking the train into another city because it takes hours with the long bus routes & changes (quoted distance 10 miles being straight distance also means going 5 miles into the city centre to link up with the route out). I might have to pick a day for a hike to one to get around the public transport to get it done.

My concern was when I was car-less, it would take the best part of a day to do it via public transport; the joys of rural life.

The closest hub to me is about 1.2m. There are plenty of others within 4 miles. Sadly, they have no slots and haven't for weeks. It seems there was a mad rush to book when they moved to my group. That might mean slots start to appear as the weeks move on.

Not sure I would want to go two counties apart. It's starting to sound like the job centre

Well my dad ended up getting his 2nd only a week late in the end. Hopefully yours won't be far off. The protection offered is showing to be very impressive.

Yes, the two counties one raised a few eyebrows here! I'm hoping it'll be soon as in that "week late" period I took on four days of work... I'm available the week prior because I turned work down to leave it clear; but I also have doubts about the competence of my local practice.

[Lencoboy]

If you want to start a riot, you go for it.

Seriously - to announce a new lockdown now would cause immense trouble.

Another (fourth) lockdown is absolutely the last thing I want right now, due to both the inconveniences and the torment of hearing about the inevitable mass protests.

So surge testing in areas where local 'flare-ups' arise should hopefully suffice, at least for the time being.

Let's face it, unlike during the peaks of both the first and second waves, plus even well into the summer months last year when overall cases were reportedly lower, there doesn't appear to be any articles in the news of late concerning UK hospitals being overwhelmed, plus almost three quarters of the UK population currently eligible for the jabs have had their first dose, and a sizeable (and growing) proportion have now had their second dose, which I'm sure is helping to keep overall cases in the UK from rising exponentially once again.

At least this week's R-rate is back down again very slightly, plus the ONS figures this week are also down once again.

[Scass]

I only lifted my third lockdown today !! LOL I want more than one day LOL

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pulisa]

May the Fourth never happen.....

Will you be hitting the town tomorrow, Carys? I went back to Woking on Tuesday after a year's absence. It was still pretty soulless and grim but it was before Covid so no change there.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Another (fourth) lockdown is absolutely the last thing I want right now, due to both the inconveniences and the torment of hearing about the inevitable mass protests.

So surge testing in areas where local 'flare-ups' arise should hopefully suffice, at least for the time being.

Let's face it, unlike during the peaks of both the first and second waves, plus even well into the summer months last year when overall cases were reportedly lower, there doesn't appear to be any articles in the news of late concerning UK hospitals being overwhelmed, plus almost three quarters of the UK population currently eligible for the jabs have had their first dose, and a sizeable (and growing) proportion have now had their second dose, which I'm sure is helping to keep overall cases in the UK from rising exponentially once again.

At least this week's R-rate is back down again very slightly, plus the ONS figures this week are also down once again.

Remember last year's infection figures were nonsense. They can't be compared without an adjustment to add missing cases. Basically, ignore them and stick to firm figures like hospitalisations and deaths. Unless you add the difference via estimates made.

I agree with Gary. I suspect this is part of your wider fears about civil unrest. You may dread a 4th lockdown so you jump to it rather than see it as a last resort measure. That's classic Cognitive Distortion (multiple forms).

And whilst it can be interesting looking at the numbers (I like watching the trends) you have to remember that unless an unusual figure has a big impact, it's trends everyone is watching out for. A spike generally has less impact than a steady increase but a spike can cause other effects e.g. a spike in one city can overwhelm their hospital(s). But that's where special measures come in. Whereas a one day spike across 100 hospitals might be a meh to bosses.

[Pamplemousse]

Well, a letter turned up with the appointment for my second jab in it.

It's on Friday, exactly eleven weeks to the minute that I had my first one - it's also a day I'm working (and on a late shift too, that no-one else likes doing)

Now, being a member of the so-called "gig economy", not only will I lose over £400 in pay for that day but I run the risk of being seen as unreliable - and consequently may lose further employment opportunities...

I think I'll be asking questions on Monday if it can be shifted.

[Lencoboy]

Remember last year's infection figures were nonsense. They can't be compared without an adjustment to add missing cases. Basically, ignore them and stick to firm figures like hospitalisations and deaths. Unless you add the difference via estimates made.

I agree with Gary. I suspect this is part of your wider fears about civil unrest. You may dread a 4th lockdown so you jump to it rather than see it as a last resort measure. That's classic Cognitive Distortion (multiple forms).

And whilst it can be interesting looking at the numbers (I like watching the trends) you have to remember that unless an unusual figure has a big impact, it's trends everyone is watching out for. A spike generally has less impact than a steady increase but a spike can cause other effects e.g. a spike in one city can overwhelm their hospital(s). But that's where special measures come in. Whereas a one day spike across 100 hospitals might be a meh to bosses.

Yes, last year's infection figures in this country were greatly underestimated due to the lack of community testing, especially earlier on in the pandemic, and didn't really start proper until midway through last summer IIRC.

It's also a shame that surge testing was never previously considered until from at least the start of this year, which had it been considered and pursued last year, particularly in spike-hit areas, it could have save a lot of headaches (no pun intended) over the past year or so, but I guess in all fairness it's been an ongoing learning curve.