Covid-19 discussion thread

[fishman65]

One is enough for me. I don't mind there being 3 if they explain the differences. The BBC is just late and not far out. ZOE seems to be based on something else and if that's untested self reported data I wouldn't see it as clean if it's based on the public spotting symptoms. It does says it's based on tests but it's numbers are nothing like test data.

ZOE is one I haven't really checked to be honest so I've not investigated how it gets it's numbers. Quick reading last night on their own site shed no light on the differences.

Considering Spector is causing confusion twice in two weeks it needs properly explaining.

I think I'm with Eddie Hitler's frustrated crossword answer on this one...

I always remember an episode of the Young Ones where Rick says 'Borrrring!!! Might just as well be listening to Genesis'. My mate at the time was a big Genesis fan and I used to rib him over it.

[Lencoboy]

One is enough for me. I don't mind there being 3 if they explain the differences. The BBC is just late and not far out. ZOE seems to be based on something else and if that's untested self reported data I wouldn't see it as clean if it's based on the public spotting symptoms. It does says it's based on tests but it's numbers are nothing like test data.

ZOE is one I haven't really checked to be honest so I've not investigated how it gets it's numbers. Quick reading last night on their own site shed no light on the differences.

Considering Spector is causing confusion twice in two weeks it needs properly explaining.

I think I'm with Eddie Hitler's frustrated crossword answer on this one...

I think the general consensus right now is (according to the 'experts') that daily cases are likely to 'bobble' up and down over the coming days/weeks, but it still all remains very much in limbo, and in the lap of the gods as to how things might or might not pan out, but hopefully things won't be anywhere near as dire as they were back in January.

Like I keep saying, only time will tell.

[pulisa]

"They" can dress it up all they want but nobody knows basically.

[Pamplemousse]

I think the general consensus right now is (according to the 'experts') that daily cases are likely to 'bobble' up and down over the coming days/weeks, but it still all remains very much in limbo, and in the lap of the gods as to how things might or might not pan out, but hopefully things won't be anywhere near as dire as they were back in January.

Like I keep saying, only time will tell.

I think what little faith I had in Neil Ferguson evaporated when only a week or so ago he forecast daily cases in six figures, yet today he said
‘I’m positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic’

He just seems to say whatever pleases the government at any particular moment.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I think what little faith I had in Neil Ferguson evaporated when only a week or so ago he forecast daily cases in six figures, yet today he said
‘I’m positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic’

He just seems to say whatever pleases the government at any particular moment.

That and his escapades last year.

It's strange how they change with the wind. I'm not an expert but much of this wave has spread in a pattern I expected. I don't understand how they seem to be so far out? I appreciate they have to produce a range of models including worst case but, as you say, one minute it's up and the next down.

Recently we had Spector saying the opposite (going down when trend going up), which I thought (I believe mistakenly now) was due to regional differences in speed, but now seems he was predicting ahead. He was right but he didn't make that clear. Now he is predicting the other way so I will judge him based on what happens next. He seems to say it's based on data now but that doesn't make sense unless he sees something that either isn't published or doesn't reflect the government metrics. It sounds the latter.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I always remember an episode of the Young Ones where Rick says 'Borrrring!!! Might just as well be listening to Genesis'. My mate at the time was a big Genesis fan and I used to rib him over it.

I never saw much of that. A bit before my time. I remember Richie (Bottom) calling hello to a passing copper from his kitchen window, his face showing the shitty response he got and replying 'no wonder they make programmes like The Bill to take the piss out of you'

[Lencoboy]

That and his escapades last year.

It's strange how they change with the wind. I'm not an expert but much of this wave has spread in a pattern I expected. I don't understand how they seem to be so far out? I appreciate they have to produce a range of models including worst case but, as you say, one minute it's up and the next down.

Recently we had Spector saying the opposite (going down when trend going up), which I thought (I believe mistakenly now) was due to regional differences in speed, but now seems he was predicting ahead. He was right but he didn't make that clear. Now he is predicting the other way so I will judge him based on what happens next. He seems to say it's based on data now but that doesn't make sense unless he sees something that either isn't published or doesn't reflect the government metrics. It sounds the latter.

Yeah, both Ferguson and Spector seem to have a habit of forever chopping and changing their Covid 'forecasts'.

Whilst out walking the dog yesterday evening, I cast my mind back to the height of the first wave in March-April 2020 when the entire country was in strict lockdown for the first time (most ironically with far fewer 'known' Covid cases at the time, but of course with Covid vaccines then still some 6-8 months away), and how unreal (and indeed creepy on occasions) nearly everything was with barely a soul about, and only a handful of vehicles on the road.

Now, by stark comparison, we're probably the closest to the old 'normal' once again that we last saw during late February-early March 2020, despite overall daily cases currently being within the 20-30k range.

[Lencoboy]

Another thing I have noticed so far since Monday (for better or worse) is the lack of posts on all the other Covid threads on here.

Nor any new Covid-related threads being created.

[pulisa]

I would imagine that people are completely Covided-out..with virus fatigue.

[Lencoboy]

I would imagine that people are completely Covided-out..with virus fatigue.

You could be right there Pulisa.

Mind you, there hasn't really been anything new reported over the past few days, Covid-wise.