Covid-19 discussion thread

[Lencoboy]

My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

Unfortunately that's something we're all concerned about, but try only to worry about it if it actually happens (heaven forbid), but so far so good.

[Lencoboy]

Wow, cases in the UK still continuing to decline today, and for 6 days on the trot as well!

24k today vs 29k yesterday.

Approximately 45k at the beginning of last week.

What's making this all the more remarkable right now is that it's without the aid of a (fourth) lockdown!

Still the real proof of the pudding will be in about a week or two's time re last Monday's final easements, and of course things can still change in due course, but nevertheless, still encouraging signs one week on.

[Gary A]

Thing is Gary, since December we've had four mutations so what may have been applicable in December may be utterly irrelevant now - that is what bothers me. The apparent fact that Delta puts young, unvaccinated people into ICU (which Covid 1.0 seldom did) to this simple soul at least suggests it's a lot more dangerous.

I spoke to a colleague today who's isolating after his wife showed symptoms (and subsequently tested positive) at the weekend, but those symptoms were the newer "like a bad cold" ones.

The idea that the Delta variant is putting more younger people in hospital is a bit of a warped perception. The fact is that it’s simply more likely for a younger person to be hospitalised now but only in comparison to older people.

Younger people, right now, are going into an almost open society with a fair amount of them either only partially or completely unvaccinated. Whereas before the virus was affecting older folk in ratios far greater than younger, that’s no longer the case due to vaccination. Younger people aren’t all of a sudden more susceptible, the event of anyone below 40 being hospitalised is still incredibly rare, it’s just not being clouded by swathes of over 50’s taking the brunt, so it’s now far more noticeable.

It’s also worth noting that the idea of younger people being put in hospital may be getting a bit more airtime right now in order to encourage better vaccine uptake in that group. It’s surely no coincidence that as vaccine uptake slows, the media start publishing stories of severe illness in younger people.

[spectrum123]

The idea that the Delta variant is putting more younger people in hospital is a bit of a warped perception. The fact is that it’s simply more likely for a younger person to be hospitalised now but only in comparison to older people.

Younger people, right now, are going into an almost open society with a fair amount of them either only partially or completely unvaccinated. Whereas before the virus was affecting older folk in ratios far greater than younger, that’s no longer the case due to vaccination. Younger people aren’t all of a sudden more susceptible, the event of anyone below 40 being hospitalised is still incredibly rare, it’s just not being clouded by swathes of over 50’s taking the brunt, so it’s now far more noticeable.

It’s also worth noting that the idea of younger people being put in hospital may be getting a bit more airtime right now in order to encourage better vaccine uptake in that group. It’s surely no coincidence that as vaccine uptake slows, the media start publishing stories of severe illness in younger people.

I agree with this view. In the midst of the pandemic while the deaths were piling up, there were still young people in hospital and as now generally surviving, but the big news was the death toll.

What we do know now, although the young were surviving, some are being left with permanent damage from the virus.

[fishman65]

The obvious thing to do is just get vaccinated. My 22 year old daughter has had one jab so far, she asked me why she can't just let her immune system protect her. I explained that its far far better to have a vaccination trigger her immunity into action than the virus, its a no brainer.

[AntsyVee]

My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

Yes, this is my big fear also.

[fishman65]

My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

But isn't there likely to be a trade-off with mutations? Increased transmissibility but decreased lethality or vice versa?

[AntsyVee]

True, FM. More mutations usually decreases the severity/lethality.

[Gary A]

But isn't there likely to be a trade-off with mutations? Increased transmissibility but decreased lethality or vice versa?

Well, a virus that is good at transmitting is seldom lethal. Think common colds. We’ve all had one, sometimes a few times a year, yet it’s nothing more than an annoyance.

Covid is very good at transmitting but it’s actually not very lethal. It looks lethal due to the numbers that succumb to it, but when you consider the sheer volume of infections the actual death rate is highly likely to be below 1%.

The SARS virus that spread in 2002 was far more “lethal” than the current virus, but it was contained rather easily due to how obvious symptoms became before a person can transmit. The same is true for MERS, another coronavirus.

Being more lethal is actually bad for the virus. It’s evolution, at the end of the day. Dogs evolved from wolves because they became less lethal and more suited to the dominant species, humans. The exact same thing is true for viruses.

[pulisa]

I suppose it is the potential legacy from Covid which marks it out from other virulent viruses? Organ damage in young people, the enigma of Long Covid and whether it can be classed as a functional disorder or a neurological issue?