Covid-19 discussion thread

[Pamplemousse]

So... over 130 deaths reported today.

It gives me no comfort to say this, but I predicted this would happen a couple of weeks ago and was practically accused of pulling figures out of my arse.

I await apologies from my accusers.

[pulisa]

Who knows what's really going on though? What about the 100,000+ daily cases by mid-August?

[Pamplemousse]

Who knows what's really going on though? What about the 100,000+ daily cases by mid-August?

Well, ZOE reckons about 62,000 per day at the moment and it's only late July: it has been posited that the .gov figures are both lagging by at least a week and will be subject to the removal of school testing figures. Cases may be falling (according to .gov) but hospitalisations and deaths are climbing. Locally the hospitalisation figure has doubled in a week but so far, no deaths.

Worth a read: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57971990

[Gary A]

So... over 130 deaths reported today.

It gives me no comfort to say this, but I predicted this would happen a couple of weeks ago and was practically accused of pulling figures out of my arse.

I await apologies from my accusers.

Let’s not play games with words here PM. You asked me if I thought hundreds of deaths per day were acceptable, I then said that you pulled that figure out of thin air because I never said ANY FIGURE was acceptable. If you want proof of that then here you go;

https://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showth...eopening/page4

Perhaps it’s you who owes me an apology for twisting my words and making it seem like I said something that I never did?

Just another example of you seemingly getting irritated by someone genuinely trying to ease your concerns by using some context. You really need to start recognising help when you’re getting it. Even if it isn’t received it would be bloody nice for you to at least tell yourself that a person cares enough to try, rather than lashing out all the time.

[elizabethalice]

My concern is - delta isn't necessarily more deadly, just more transmissible. But with such low vaccination rates, especially in the US (and purely by choice) - the virus is just going to keep mutating, right? What happens when there is a mutation that is both more deadly and more transmissible? What happens when there is a mutation that the vaccine isn't effective against?

So I am not a scientist at all but I have been working with some recently (I just work on various websites behind the scenes!) And I've had the chance to ask them loads of questions!

Common consensus is that its very unlikely that a variant that evades vaccines would be more lethal. I'm not sure exactly what the science is behind that but partly to do with the fact that it's not in viruses interests to get more lethal, like mentioned here. So, if we do eventually get a vaccine resistant variant, it would likely be a lot less harmful.

Also, variants don't suddenly end up vaccine resistant. It's a gradual process. A mutation of Delta may be slightly more vaccine resistant, but only slightly. Then, scientists will tweak jabs for the dominant variant. That's why we have a different flu jab each year.

So the chances of a very dangerous completely vaccine resistant variant emerging all of a sudden are very low. Hope that helps!

[Pamplemousse]

Let’s not play games with words here PM. You asked me if I thought hundreds of deaths per day were acceptable, I then said that you pulled that figure out of thin air because I never said ANY FIGURE was acceptable. If you want proof of that then here you go;

https://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showth...eopening/page4

Perhaps it’s you who owes me an apology for twisting my words and making it seem like I said something that I never did?

Just another example of you seemingly getting irritated by someone genuinely trying to ease your concerns by using some context. You really need to start recognising help when you’re getting it. Even if it isn’t received it would be bloody nice for you to at least tell yourself that a person cares enough to try, rather than lashing out all the time.

So let me get this right: you are in the wrong and yet you expect me to apologise to you?

I think you're starting to get a level of arrogance and self-importance that certain other posters on this forum have.

Blocked.

[MyNameIsTerry]

But deaths were greatly reduced over the weekend so couldn't this be a reporting issue? If it drops back to normal it might just be late reporting.

Until I see trend I'll consider it a blip. One day isn't enough to tell us much.

[MyNameIsTerry]

This is the big issue with all this, and has often been the case - there's no control group.

Agreed. But they could easily provide a % of young people infected leading to hospitalisation and compare to previous waves. I would be surprised if they haven't.

[MyNameIsTerry]

You've reminded me of my former neighbours and their endearingly cute cocker spaniel, Phoebe; she was very good at coming to the dinner table, plonking her head on the table on one side with big eyes and whimpering gently. One of neighbours' elderly relatives - upon seeing this - remarked "she's been here before", a remark implying said doggy had a soul from a previous life.

My dog does something similiar. We get the head tilt with the eyes and often he lies down. Sounds a lot like Phoebe.

I'm sure I read something about this a while back. Something the species has evolved to influence us.

[Lencoboy]

But deaths were greatly reduced over the weekend so couldn't this be a reporting issue? If it drops back to normal it might just be late reporting.

Until I see trend I'll consider it a blip. One day isn't enough to tell us much.

Deaths are always higher on Tuesdays due to the weekend catch-up.

But whilst even just one death is still one too many, at least it's not in excess of 1k per day like back in January-early Feb this year, which is increasingly less likely now due to the effects of the jabs.