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Thread: The Corona Conundrum

  1. #1
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    The Corona Conundrum

    As many of you may probably already be aware, confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK have been on a very steadily upward trend for the past month or so, after reaching a low point at the beginning of July.

    Despite this, over the same period the overall number of related deaths has continued its steadily downward trend (or at least more or less stabilised), with the same trend also applying to hospitalisations.

    Up until today, Scotland has reported no CV- related deaths since 17th July, and NI have gone even longer without reporting any, but Wales has fluctuated between reporting no deaths in some days to reporting a few on others, whilst finally, England, has still reported deaths on a daily basis, albeit on a downward (or at least stable) trend.

    Three possible explanations for the continued downward trend in overall CV death rates (though not gospel):

    1. More younger people (typically below 35) have been contracting the virus over more recent weeks, and that age group are generally thought to be more resilient and less liable to die directly of the virus, though there have be the odd exceptions.

    2. The recently discovered steroid that is supposedly capable of reducing deaths and aiding speedier recoveries may now be starting to see more widespread use in treatments for CV, and inadvertently lowering the death rates.

    3. As already suggested by some scientists around the world, the virus might now be starting to evolve into a less lethal strain, which is also likely to yield lower death rates.

    I could be talking a load of bull but it's still food for thought.
    Last edited by Lencoboy; 09-08-20 at 17:39.

  2. #2
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    I heard it was due to the fact that loads more tests are taking place in areas where there are local outbreaks, compared to general national testing.

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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Carys View Post
    I heard it was due to the fact that loads more tests are taking place in areas where there are local outbreaks, compared to general national testing.
    You could be correct there, Carys, though what I have found most interesting (and indeed baffling but nevertheless reassuring), as I have already mentioned above, is the cases edging upwards over the past month, but strangely still not culminating in increased death and hospitalisation rates so far, though only time will tell, of course.

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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    I think you may be correct in your assumption in points 1 and 2, Lencoboy - I note today we've passed the 1,000 cases a day barrier again this time with two outbreaks in Swindon. I think point 3 may be wishful thinking, although it is in a virus's best interest not to kill its hosts as without them it too dies.

    It proves the disease is still out there and it still kills people though; and remember, we're mid-summer at the moment. If cases continue to rise, I doubt October and November will see as little as double-digit daily deaths. The Express (I know) is already running with various doomsday scenarios such as a second lockdown next month. I hope school children can return to schools safely next month (I won't mourn the closure, perhaps final, of pubs if necessary) as their social development is very important.

    I do expect lock-down for obese over-50s in the next month or two, especially with pre-existing conditions. Guess that's me taking my pension early then.

  5. #5
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Carys View Post
    I heard it was due to the fact that loads more tests are taking place in areas where there are local outbreaks, compared to general national testing.
    This is pretty much it imo.

    Early statistics were mainly people being tested for confirmation who were already in trouble. There was a higher likelihood of them having serious or fatal complications. Many more would have been infected without even realising.

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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Pamplemousse View Post
    I think you may be correct in your assumption in points 1 and 2, Lencoboy - I note today we've passed the 1,000 cases a day barrier again this time with two outbreaks in Swindon. I think point 3 may be wishful thinking, although it is in a virus's best interest not to kill its hosts as without them it too dies.

    It proves the disease is still out there and it still kills people though; and remember, we're mid-summer at the moment. If cases continue to rise, I doubt October and November will see as little as double-digit daily deaths. The Express (I know) is already running with various doomsday scenarios such as a second lockdown next month. I hope school children can return to schools safely next month (I won't mourn the closure, perhaps final, of pubs if necessary) as their social development is very important.

    I do expect lock-down for obese over-50s in the next month or two, especially with pre-existing conditions. Guess that's me taking my pension early then.
    Just to put the record straight (in a non-confrontational manner), the 'wishful thinking' regarding my third point isn't instigated by me, as I am just quoting something that has been suggested by a couple of scientists, and had it simply been my own idea, I wouldn't even have dared to mention it on here.

    And as far as the Daily Express (Depress) are concerned, like their other rabid right-leaning rivals the Daily Fail and The Scum, we have to take whatever stuff they whack out with a pinch of salt.

    Ironically, given today's case count is the highest since 25th June, the BBC News website has so far kept it low-key, with it only being mentioned in the daily 'Look-up tool' page on there, whereas I personally thought they would have otherwise made a much bigger deal of it.

    Like I already mentioned in the main CV discussion thread earlier, they also don't appear to be bothering as much with their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page of late, which I also find a bit baffling.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way accusing Aunty Beeb of playing down the CV thing ATM.
    Last edited by Lencoboy; 09-08-20 at 19:22.

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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    Like I already mentioned in the main CV discussion thread earlier, they also don't appear to be bothering as much with their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page of late, which I also find a bit baffling.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not in any way accusing Aunty Beeb of playing down the CV thing ATM.
    They're getting bored with it. Have you ever listened to Don Henley's Dirty Laundry?


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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Pamplemousse View Post
    They're getting bored with it. Have you ever listened to Don Henley's Dirty Laundry?

    Or probably now realising that all things Corona have pretty much been done to death since about February or so, and that other news also matters, though on the other hand, I wonder if it also smacks of complacency, especially given yesterday's daily case count being the highest since 25th June?

    Re Don Henley's song 'Dirty Laundry', I have heard it as my dad has the DVD of The Eagles 'Live In Melbourne' that features that song, and it's pretty cool.

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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Guess what?

    The BBC have reinstated their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page on their News website this morning.

    Also, today's Daily Express (seen via the 'Papers' page on the BBC News website) has the polar opposite headline on the front page compared to the 'Doomsday scenario' headlines yesterday (as pointed out by Pamplemousse), suggesting that this country may be 'defeating the virus'!!

    From one extreme report to the other, another factor in this 'conundrum'!!

    Little wonder many feel confused.

  10. #10
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    Guess what?

    The BBC have reinstated their dedicated live 'rolling' CV page on their News website this morning.

    Also, today's Daily Express (seen via the 'Papers' page on the BBC News website) has the polar opposite headline on the front page compared to the 'Doomsday scenario' headlines yesterday (as pointed out by Pamplemousse), suggesting that this country may be 'defeating the virus'!!

    From one extreme report to the other, another factor in this 'conundrum'!!

    Little wonder many feel confused.
    About fifteen minutes or so ago, I dared to take a quick peek at the Daily Depress website (normally avoided like the plague by me but today I somehow couldn't resist it) as I was interested in today's front page headline about Britain 'defeating the virus', but yesterday's story speculating about a possible second national lockdown in September is still active on there (the 'one extreme to the other' syndrome) and features an image of BoJo, but was actually suggested by a person who is a former govt adviser from 2000-07 (whose name I have already forgotten), so IMO said article comes across as a little dubious as it seems to be based on the opinions of just one person, and also that it hasn't (AFAIK) been covered by the BBC and other outlets.

    If anyone dares to visit the DE website today, be warned, there are other articles on there ATM that could be potentially disturbing and triggering to some people on here, so view at your own risk!!
    Last edited by Lencoboy; 10-08-20 at 14:32.

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