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Thread: The Corona Conundrum

  1. #11
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    I'm still bewildered (in positive ways) about the CV deaths still being lower (and non-existent in both Scotland and NI for over an entire month despite spikes in both nations over the same period), despite the average daily cases now being back above 1k (apart from today's 713) and we were having similar daily case counts during the last week or two of March when people were dropping like flies in the hundreds every day, unlike now where it's in the single (since Saturday) or even very low double digits (last Wednesday to Friday).

    I know the counting method for deaths in England was radically changed last Wednesday, and brought into line with the other UK nations, but nevertheless I still have a feeling that the virus might now be evolving into a lesser strain, though I reiterate that this is still not gospel and only what I am personally surmising, even though it has already been suggested by a couple of scientists before.

  2. #12
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    I'm still bewildered (in positive ways) about the CV deaths still being lower (and non-existent in both Scotland and NI for over an entire month despite spikes in both nations over the same period), despite the average daily cases now being back above 1k (apart from today's 713) and we were having similar daily case counts during the last week or two of March when people were dropping like flies in the hundreds every day, unlike now where it's in the single (since Saturday) or even very low double digits (last Wednesday to Friday).

    I know the counting method for deaths in England was radically changed last Wednesday, and brought into line with the other UK nations, but nevertheless I still have a feeling that the virus might now be evolving into a lesser strain, though I reiterate that this is still not gospel and only what I am personally surmising, even though it has already been suggested by a couple of scientists before.
    Well, the UK started out by only testing folk who were ill enough for hospitalisation, so of course a higher proportion of positive cases would end up succumbing to the effects of the virus if the only people being tested were already very unwell.

    Now, most tests are carried out routinely, or on anyone with symptoms. A lot more of the positive cases now are in younger healthier people who aren’t ill enough to need medical intervention. It would be nice if the virus were mutating into less aggressive strains, but right now there just isn’t the evidence to suggest it is.

  3. #13
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary A View Post
    Well, the UK started out by only testing folk who were ill enough for hospitalisation, so of course a higher proportion of positive cases would end up succumbing to the effects of the virus if the only people being tested were already very unwell.

    Now, most tests are carried out routinely, or on anyone with symptoms. A lot more of the positive cases now are in younger healthier people who aren’t ill enough to need medical intervention. It would be nice if the virus were mutating into less aggressive strains, but right now there just isn’t the evidence to suggest it is.
    I most certainly agree with your reply.

    Regarding the strain of the virus, I did actually say that it's only what I am surmising ATM and I completely acknowledge that there still isn't any proof that the virus could now be becoming less lethal.

    Only time will tell and the real proof of the pudding will be at least over the next month or two.

    BTW, congrats to all the people of your home nation of Scotland for managing to keep your CV deaths at zero for an entire month, a remarkable feat, regardless of whether the virus is actually changing or not.

    Ditto NI.

  4. #14
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    I most certainly agree with your reply.

    Regarding the strain of the virus, I did actually say that it's only what I am surmising ATM and I completely acknowledge that there still isn't any proof that the virus could now be becoming less lethal.

    Only time will tell and the real proof of the pudding will be at least over the next month or two.
    There is a little buzz from a handful of scientists who say that the viral strains are weakening in potency, but they’re largely in the minority, unfortunately.

  5. #15
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    This second wave we keep hearing about, how likely does everyone think this might happen? Because haven't the Nightingale hospitals been taken down? That would seem a strange policy if a second wave is on the cards.
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  6. #16
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    I'm still bewildered (in positive ways) about the CV deaths still being lower (and non-existent in both Scotland and NI for over an entire month despite spikes in both nations over the same period), despite the average daily cases now being back above 1k (apart from today's 713) and we were having similar daily case counts during the last week or two of March when people were dropping like flies in the hundreds every day, unlike now where it's in the single (since Saturday) or even very low double digits (last Wednesday to Friday).

    I know the counting method for deaths in England was radically changed last Wednesday, and brought into line with the other UK nations, but nevertheless I still have a feeling that the virus might now be evolving into a lesser strain, though I reiterate that this is still not gospel and only what I am personally surmising, even though it has already been suggested by a couple of scientists before.
    Maybe it's the whisky?
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  7. #17
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    It's still really odd that despite just one CV death each occurring in both in Scotland and NI respectively last week that both nations' trend of zero deaths has pretty much since resumed, even more baffling considering both nations having higher numbers of cases over the past 2-3 weeks or so, and their R-rates being higher than average compared to both England and Wales.

    I know things could very well change in due course, but nevertheless, the Corona Conundrum still lives on.

  8. #18
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Shouldn't it return to zero if they are managing it? Death rates not indicating any upward trend are what we want but there will be blips just as someone healthy might die.
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  9. #19
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    Shouldn't it return to zero if they are managing it? Death rates not indicating any upward trend are what we want but there will be blips just as someone healthy might die.
    Whilst I absolutely agree with what you're saying Terry, it's all the hysteria that ensues with people jumping to conclusions that the second wave has now started when we're still not even over the first wave yet, coupled with all the other typical Doomsday commentary, that really gets me.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not in any way attempting to downplay this pandemic,
    and I appreciate the fact that even just one death is still one too many (as the saying goes), but in the grand scheme of things it's negligible compared to the situation back in late March right through to about June or so when UK-wide, people were dying of CV in the hundreds on a daily basis, even brushing with the thousands on a couple of occasions back in April, even going by the new counting system in England.

    And it's still a possibility that those who test positive for CV might actually die from something else (and completely unrelated) within the prescribed 28 days alone, such as a car crash/being run over, falling down the stairs head-first, heart failure, strokes, cancer, overdose, suffocation, drowning, house fires, you name it.

  10. #20
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Despite 1,715 confirmed cases today (the highest for almost 3 months), just 1 confirmed death.

    Still not sure as to whether the lower numbers typically announced on Sundays and Mondays (under the previous system of counting in England) still apply under the newer system.

    Whatever the event, the deaths still appear to be lower on average than they were at the start of this month, regardless of the recent changes to the counting methods in England.

    ETA, the last time case numbers hit this (approximate) number was on Thursday 28th May, but we had 343 deaths on that date, unlike just 1 today.

    And that is the recently revised figure.
    Last edited by Lencoboy; 30-08-20 at 16:51.

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