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Thread: The Corona Conundrum

  1. #21
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    I know this thread is almost a year old now but today's stats from both the dashboard and ZOE seem to be showing a gulf. The dashboard site today has confirmed 48k cases whilst the ZOE site has confirmed 32,919 cases plus the latter site is saying that 'cases have now started to plateau ahead of Freedom Day', which to me sounds like ZOE are in cloud cuckoo land right now!

    Also, the BBC website (as yet) still hasn't been making a song and dancing about today's 48k (dashboard) cases and daily deaths above 60, which I'm finding rather odd.

    On another note, my borough is below 500 cases today, according to the dashboard site, though it's pretty much odds on that the numbers will start going up again after next Monday.

  2. #22
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    I know this thread is almost a year old now but today's stats from both the dashboard and ZOE seem to be showing a gulf. The dashboard site today has confirmed 48k cases whilst the ZOE site has confirmed 32,919 cases plus the latter site is saying that 'cases have now started to plateau ahead of Freedom Day', which to me sounds like ZOE are in cloud cuckoo land right now!

    Also, the BBC website (as yet) still hasn't been making a song and dancing about today's 48k (dashboard) cases and daily deaths above 60, which I'm finding rather odd.

    On another note, my borough is below 500 cases today, according to the dashboard site, though it's pretty much odds on that the numbers will start going up again after next Monday.
    Also only just a few weeks ago the ZOE daily cases were higher than those of the dashboard, again following the then-previous cycle of being lower than those of the dashboard.

    ZOE forever seem to keep flip-flopping with their counting methods.

  3. #23
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    While dashboard daily cases have seemingly been cycling up and down since mid-July, it seems that both hospitalisations and deaths are now starting to fall after rising exponentially over the same period.

    A strange but encouraging trend.

  4. #24
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    While dashboard daily cases have seemingly been cycling up and down since mid-July, it seems that both hospitalisations and deaths are now starting to fall after rising exponentially over the same period.

    A strange but encouraging trend.
    They seem to bob up & down. I expect they will start to rise again soon. It's the lag but this time the spikes are more staggered across the UK.
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  5. #25
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by MyNameIsTerry View Post
    They seem to bob up & down. I expect they will start to rise again soon. It's the lag but this time the spikes are more staggered across the UK.
    While there's still the odd chance that the current downward trends in recorded Covid hospitalisations and deaths could be just a temporary blip, it's still nevertheless encouraging signs that the criteria for a possible fourth national lockdown still isn't being met.

    Still only time will tell, of course.

    Perhaps it might now be a consequence of the combo of the vast majority now having been double-jabbed, coupled with a significant proportion of the population having already had Covid (both jabbed and still unjabbed) and successfully recovered, plus the majority of those most vulnerable to dying of the virus have now died already?

  6. #26
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Lencoboy View Post
    While there's still the odd chance that the current downward trends in recorded Covid hospitalisations and deaths could be just a temporary blip, it's still nevertheless encouraging signs that the criteria for a possible fourth national lockdown still isn't being met.

    Still only time will tell, of course.

    Perhaps it might now be a consequence of the combo of the vast majority now having been double-jabbed, coupled with a significant proportion of the population having already had Covid (both jabbed and still unjabbed) and successfully recovered, plus the majority of those most vulnerable to dying of the virus have now died already?
    I would seriously doubt there will ever be another full on national lockdown. In fact, that may even set us back. Immunity to this virus is only going to get stronger as it is. We now have a huge percentage of the population fully vaccinated and another fairly large percentage immune due to previous infection.

    It’s now very clear that the vaccination campaign has reduced bad outcomes from this virus quite substantially. In January and February, we had around 1200-1400 deaths per day. This, keep in mind, was with most hospitality venues closed and strict measures in place to keep people apart. We don’t have that now, we haven’t for a few months. Deaths are still happening, and yes any death is awful, but we’re talking about a maximum of about 100 per day if you average it out.

    That’s a huge difference even with control measures in place. It’s even more remarkable that this drop in deaths comes at a time when pretty much every control measure has been removed. Imagine what the death rate would be without vaccination and no control measures in place? You’re talking thousands per day.

    In all honesty, I don’t think this is being talked about as much as it should be. Everywhere you look people are saying the vaccines aren’t working due to the high levels of infection still being detected. It’s so short sighted. People need to realise that without vaccination those infection rates would be far higher and the bad outcomes from them would be unimaginable.

  7. #27
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary A View Post
    I would seriously doubt there will ever be another full on national lockdown. In fact, that may even set us back. Immunity to this virus is only going to get stronger as it is. We now have a huge percentage of the population fully vaccinated and another fairly large percentage immune due to previous infection.

    It’s now very clear that the vaccination campaign has reduced bad outcomes from this virus quite substantially. In January and February, we had around 1200-1400 deaths per day. This, keep in mind, was with most hospitality venues closed and strict measures in place to keep people apart. We don’t have that now, we haven’t for a few months. Deaths are still happening, and yes any death is awful, but we’re talking about a maximum of about 100 per day if you average it out.

    That’s a huge difference even with control measures in place. It’s even more remarkable that this drop in deaths comes at a time when pretty much every control measure has been removed. Imagine what the death rate would be without vaccination and no control measures in place? You’re talking thousands per day.

    In all honesty, I don’t think this is being talked about as much as it should be. Everywhere you look people are saying the vaccines aren’t working due to the high levels of infection still being detected. It’s so short sighted. People need to realise that without vaccination those infection rates would be far higher and the bad outcomes from them would be unimaginable.
    With regards your last paragraph, I reckon a lot of it is coming from the die-hard antivaxxers who are essentially using it as justification for not getting jabbed, and basically saying 'what's the point?', despite still-strong evidence to the contrary.

    Also remember back in July when some experts were heavily predicting daily cases to hit 100k + by early August onwards, which still hasn't (yet) materialised.

    And you're correct that so far during this third wave, daily Covid deaths have been way down on what they were back in December 2020-February 2021, which is mostly thanks to the vaccines, coupled with elements of herd immunity, all despite Delta. Plus an increasing number of cases now are much milder and inadvertently, inconsequential for the most part. Also, we're probably now the closest to the 'old' normal than we've been since late February 2020.

    I seriously dread to imagine what the situation might have been by now had Covid vaccines still not existed.

    Definitely stacks more cases, hospitalisations, deaths and endless waltzing in and out of lockdowns/restrictions.

  8. #28
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    Dec 2014
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    If you want to see how low the anti-vaxxers can go:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ds-murder.html

  9. #29
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    Mar 2014
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    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Pamplemousse View Post
    If you want to see how low the anti-vaxxers can go:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ds-murder.html
    It wouldn't surprise me if he started turning up at funerals to justify anti lockdown.
    __________________
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    For free Mindfulness resources, please see this thread I have created to compile many sources together http://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showthread.php?t=168689

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Posts
    27,320

    Re: The Corona Conundrum

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary A View Post
    I would seriously doubt there will ever be another full on national lockdown. In fact, that may even set us back. Immunity to this virus is only going to get stronger as it is. We now have a huge percentage of the population fully vaccinated and another fairly large percentage immune due to previous infection.

    It’s now very clear that the vaccination campaign has reduced bad outcomes from this virus quite substantially. In January and February, we had around 1200-1400 deaths per day. This, keep in mind, was with most hospitality venues closed and strict measures in place to keep people apart. We don’t have that now, we haven’t for a few months. Deaths are still happening, and yes any death is awful, but we’re talking about a maximum of about 100 per day if you average it out.

    That’s a huge difference even with control measures in place. It’s even more remarkable that this drop in deaths comes at a time when pretty much every control measure has been removed. Imagine what the death rate would be without vaccination and no control measures in place? You’re talking thousands per day.

    In all honesty, I don’t think this is being talked about as much as it should be. Everywhere you look people are saying the vaccines aren’t working due to the high levels of infection still being detected. It’s so short sighted. People need to realise that without vaccination those infection rates would be far higher and the bad outcomes from them would be unimaginable.
    I agree. The BBC give figures showing infections, hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination but it's very muted.

    That's the media for you, death good life bad.
    __________________
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    For free Mindfulness resources, please see this thread I have created to compile many sources together http://www.nomorepanic.co.uk/showthread.php?t=168689

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