The Corona Conundrum

[Pamplemousse]

Now, driving home last night I'm pretty sure I heard the Midnight news on Radio 4 claim that 112,000 deaths have been prevented by vaccination. How do they calculate that?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/covid-vaccines-saved-112000-lives-uk-deputy-medical-officer-says-2021-09-14/

[Lencoboy]

I agree. The BBC give figures showing infections, hospitalisations and deaths prevented by vaccination but it's very muted.

That's the media for you, death good life bad.

Yeah, because many people find all the bad news far more exciting, as always.

[spectrum123]

Now, driving home last night I'm pretty sure I heard the Midnight news on Radio 4 claim that 112,000 deaths have been prevented by vaccination. How do they calculate that?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/cov...ys-2021-09-14/

With the information we have relating to infection rates, hospitalisations, and deaths both pre- and post-vaccination you can model a curve of probabilities, ideally you take the middle of the curve for your figure. The media and political parties tend to use each end of the curve to suit their narrative.

[Gary A]

Now, driving home last night I'm pretty sure I heard the Midnight news on Radio 4 claim that 112,000 deaths have been prevented by vaccination. How do they calculate that?

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/cov...ys-2021-09-14/

Just guessing but I’d imagine it’s by weighing up infection levels post vaccination against infection levels pre vaccination. It’s maybe then just a case of comparing death rates to infections pre and post vaccination. Perhaps they’d factor in restrictions or lack thereof.

Again though, just a guess. It’s actually starting to bother me how little effort is put into showing the actual bloody data and how they’re arriving at certain conclusions.