Noticed something odd about the numbers

[WiredIncorrectly]

We now that that lovely smile.

It's just a shame other people were not cautious enough to notice it. They had their head in newspapers while congregating down the local pub ... or they were shooting Grouse.

National lockdown here we come. The media has been softening the blow all week. Boris is about to announce it. I give it less than 7 days before we're all locked up again.

[Lencoboy]

We now that that lovely smile.

It's just a shame other people were not cautious enough to notice it. They had their head in newspapers while congregating down the local pub ... or they were shooting Grouse.

National lockdown here we come. The media has been softening the blow all week. Boris is about to announce it. I give it less than 7 days before we're all locked up again.

And we all know whose fault it is don't we?

[Lencoboy]

I know there is usually a 3-week lag between confirmed positive cases and deaths and deaths have unfortunately started to edge up a bit over the past couple of weeks, but still at relatively low levels ATM compared to earlier in the pandemic. (37 for 2 days running, although yesterday was Tuesday of course). And this is despite the daily cases being back in 4-digit figures since the beginning of August, and during the latter half of March were having far more deaths per day with far less cases, that is if the cases were actually correct, of course.

Having said that in Spain and France, their 'second waves' of positive infections have been even greater than their first ones recently, whilst overall deaths in both countries have still remained lower than during their first respective waves.

[Gary A]

I know there is usually a 3-week lag between confirmed positive cases and deaths and deaths have unfortunately started to edge up a bit over the past couple of weeks, but still at relatively low levels ATM compared to earlier in the pandemic. (37 for 2 days running, although yesterday was Tuesday of course). And this is despite the daily cases being back in 4-digit figures since the beginning of August, and during the latter half of March were having far more deaths per day with far less cases, that is if the cases were actually correct, of course.

Having said that in Spain and France, their 'second waves' of positive infections have been even greater than their first ones recently, whilst overall deaths in both countries have still remained lower than during their first respective waves.

Again, this so called “second wave” thus far is an absolute picnic compared to March and April. It’s estimated that in early April there were as many as 100,000 new cases per day that simply were not picked up due to testing being limited to those ill enough to be placed into medical settings.

It took until the end of April before testing was ramped up to anything like 100,000 per day, when you consider this compared to an average of 350,000 per day now, you can see the difference. The positive cases now are STILL lower than April, and that’s with this huge expansion in testing.

The important number that proves growth now is the percentage of positive cases to testing capacity. Anything above 5% per day signifies exponential growth, we are teetering on that brink now so we need to slam the brakes on for a bit just to get those percentages down.

I think looking at positive cases per day is a bit of a waste of time, you need to compare the testing volume capacity for that number to have any context whatsoever.

[Lencoboy]

Again, this so called “second wave” thus far is an absolute picnic compared to March and April. It’s estimated that in early April there were as many as 100,000 new cases per day that simply were not picked up due to testing being limited to those ill enough to be placed into medical settings.

It took until the end of April before testing was ramped up to anything like 100,000 per day, when you consider this compared to an average of 350,000 per day now, you can see the difference. The positive cases now are STILL lower than April, and that’s with this huge expansion in testing.

The important number that proves growth now is the percentage of positive cases to testing capacity. Anything above 5% per day signifies exponential growth, we are teetering on that brink now so we need to slam the brakes on for a bit just to get those percentages down.

I think looking at positive cases per day is a bit of a waste of time, you need to compare the testing volume capacity for that number to have any context whatsoever.

You're probably right there Gary.

Also the current situation might very well be a walk in the park compared to back in the spring, especially as a lot more is now known compared to back then, coupled with the far greater number of daily tests now compared to the March-May period, though we should still keep being vigilant of course.

It does seem that the panic situation has now been mostly reversed, it's the govt that seem to be doing most of the panicking right now whilst much of the general public don't seem to give a damn, unlike back in February and early March this year much of the general public were trembling in their boots at the very mention of the word Coronavirus, whilst the govt were caught napping over it and more concerned about 'getting Brexit done'!!

[glassgirlw]

I will say that although, admittedly our response to Covid here in the US has been just horribly embarrassing, thankfully our death rates have dramatically decreased here over the last couple months. At least in my state (Midwest). There is a daily broadcast by a couple high ranking doctors for the largest health system here in Kansas, they’re amazing, and give a calm and well thought out briefing each day. They also answer questions from the media and public. Both doctors largely attribute the decreasing death rate to not only the age of people being mainly affected now (under 40) but also to the fact that we know more now than we did in February about treating this virus,and what all it can affect other than just the respiratory system. I love watching them because they don’t fuel mass panic.

[Lencoboy]

I will say that although, admittedly our response to Covid here in the US has been just horribly embarrassing, thankfully our death rates have dramatically decreased here over the last couple months. At least in my state (Midwest). There is a daily broadcast by a couple high ranking doctors for the largest health system here in Kansas, they’re amazing, and give a calm and well thought out briefing each day. They also answer questions from the media and public. Both doctors largely attribute the decreasing death rate to not only the age of people being mainly affected now (under 40) but also to the fact that we know more now than we did in February about treating this virus,and what all it can affect other than just the respiratory system. I love watching them because they don’t fuel mass panic.

Sounds like your local answer to the likes of our very own Dr John Campbell.

I agree that a lot more is now known about the virus the world over compared to back in February and what we had back then was just the tip of the iceberg. Our own Dr JC mentioned in his YouTube video yesterday in reference to our latest T&T app which suggests active cases of the virus are still very likely to be more widespread than the daily stats tell us, which gives even more credibility to the likelihood of overall infections back in February-March (in the UK in particular) actually being in excess of approximately 200k at the time, which is still far greater than at present.

Both my parents had their annual flu jab around this time last year as well (but not me) and all 3 of us had this nasty flu-like virus midway through February which had many of the hallmarks of Covid 19 (though I never had any major breathing difficulties but had the other symptoms), so I still believe it's odds on that we could well have had Covid back then, but disguised as hidden/unconfirmed cases, given our authorities were still mostly napping over it at the time, but if that was the case, we luckily survived and naturally recovered, though we had our illnesses for approximately 2 and a half weeks.

Perhaps the flu jabs my parents had last autumn demonstrates it could well have been Covid, but thankfully non-fatal.

[Lencoboy]

Over on the Digital Spy forum ATM there are a couple of FMs who are blatantly disputing the decline in today's cases, saying stuff like 'it's the weekend lag effect', 'there are massive cock-ups in the labs', 'the govt are massaging the figures', etc. Some right know it alls.

I thought the weekend lag effect mainly affects the death count as I have actually known higher case counts on Sundays and Mondays compared to the days before. Also there have been sizable declines in confirmed cases for 3 consecutive days since Saturday, which IMO is most certainly telling, though whether or not it's sustainable is another matter, of course.

It's as if there are certain individuals who seem to revel in denial of cases falling, let alone the blatant Covid deniers, especially those mobs who were protesting in central London on Saturday, who must be more than prepared to face the music if this virus comes up and smacks them hard in the face!

I know I am probably cruel in saying the latter, but I can't help thinking about the possibility of karma striking those Covidiots, who were obviously trying to act 'ard and no doubt in pursuit of their 15 minutes of fame!

[Pamplemousse]

There may be an element of truth in what they say re: cases - but looking at previous Mondays and Tuesdays should tell you what's happening. Don't forget there have been issues with the numbers because of delays in getting tests and subsequent results in recent weeks.

At the moment I'm quite concerned that France seems to be losing control: 14,400 cases today. I suspect M. Castex is going to have to make some difficult decisions before long. However, where I live is Covid-free again and the major city nearby is at 21 cases per 100k.

[Lencoboy]

There may be an element of truth in what they say re: cases - but looking at previous Mondays and Tuesdays should tell you what's happening. Don't forget there have been issues with the numbers because of delays in getting tests and subsequent results in recent weeks.

At the moment I'm quite concerned that France seems to be losing control: 14,400 cases today. I suspect M. Castex is going to have to make some difficult decisions before long. However, where I live is Covid-free again and the major city nearby is at 21 cases per 100k.

Pleased to know your area is Covid free again PM.

Looking at the news today it does appear there have been issues with labs in Scotland (806 cases today there vs 222 yesterday), though not sure if the same is also happening in England, Wales and NI, we'll just have to wait and see later on this afternoon.

As far as daily cases are concerned, I still don't really buy into the much-touted weekend lag effect, because on some occasions I have known cases to be higher on a Sunday than the previous day (Saturday) and also higher on a Monday than the previous day (Sunday).

It's also been speculated that today's case stats (especially in Scotland) might also account for previously unrecorded cases last week, which has allegedly been known to happen UK-wide before where previously unrecorded cases from days, weeks or even months earlier, have been added to the daily case count, which can artificially inflate day-to-day figures.