Noticed something odd about the numbers

[Lencoboy]

I honestly feel a bit dumb here. I still don't get it. In July the numbers were around 1,000 reported cases and deaths around 100. 2 weeks ago the reported cases was around 1,000 but death rates higher. I don't get how in 1 month the cases are the same, but deaths absurdly low in comparison to the same figures in July. I hope I make sense here.

Ohhhh wait I think I get it.

Because more people are tested now it's revealing large numbers of less-symptomatic people that otherwise wouldn't have been picked up. So the testing is now catching the young etc who are not at risk of death.

Literally clocked it as I was writing so I'll continue to post this to show where my thinking was off. This is why I ask these questions because I know somewhere there's a logical explanation.

Did you not learn of the changes to England's counting system for the CV deaths from the 12th August onwards, with the 28 day time limit between testing positive and death?

And young people have still been known to die from CV (albeit very rarely), but are more likely to survive and recover fully.

[Lencoboy]

Not necessarily. Most of these infections are being found via routine screening, which implies that these folk have either mild illness or are completely asymptomatic.

As I said, these infections have been happening since the start of this pandemic, they’re being picked up now because of more access to testing.

I wish more people would view the current situation in the context you have stated above.

Sadly this bloke I know, who is a serial pessimist, is convinced the pandemic situation in the UK is now much worse than back in the spring, and keeps harping on about governmental conspiracies and the like. I did try to explain that it seemed that mainly the most serious cases were probably accounting for the bulk of our initial spike, those that result(ed) in hospitalisations and/or deaths, unlike now, less serious cases are now being accounted for, especially persons who are asymptomatic and/or are carrying dead cells.

But as per usual, he weren't having none of it. And still moans for England about having to mask up in shops and the like.

[Gary A]

I wish more people would view the current situation in the context you have stated above.

Sadly this bloke I know, who is a serial pessimist, is convinced the pandemic situation in the UK is now much worse than back in the spring, and keeps harping on about governmental conspiracies and the like. I did try to explain that it seemed that mainly the most serious cases were probably accounting for the bulk of our initial spike, those that result(ed) in hospitalisations and/or deaths, unlike now, less serious cases are now being accounted for, especially persons who are asymptomatic and/or are carrying dead cells.

But as per usual, he weren't having none of it. And still moans for England about having to mask up in shops and the like.

The positive cases now are largely in folk who are either routinely screened, such as care home workers and healthcare workers, and people who kind of maybe have symptoms of Covid-19. The way I see it, if we were seeing 10,000 new cases per day when testing was kept for those who required medical intervention, you could probably add another 10,000 people to that list who either had mild illness or no symptoms at all.

As much as nobody wants to see the new cases rise, there is absolutely no question, for me anyway, that the rate of true new infections in the UK now are absolutely nowhere near what they were at the peak. Do also keep in mind that we are testing at a rate far and above what we were at the peak, and the percentages of positive tests are still incredibly low when measured up against tests performed. In Scotland, the rate of positive cases per day is around 1.8% of those tested. That’s honestly almost low enough to be called negligible.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Well, in my opinion, our government made a rip roaring arse of it during the early days in the peak of this pandemic. The deaths in care homes made up a ridiculous percentage of the daily deaths, and it’s simply not acceptable.

I have been saying since early March that testing and tracing was the way to go, but for god knows what reason we decided to only test those with symptoms that rendered people hospitalised. We removed older folk from wards in hospitals and placed them into care settings WITHOUT testing those same people for Covid-19 before they got there.

It honestly is the most stupid political decision I’ve ever witnessed in my life. Multiple doctors, scientists and politicians should be hanging their heads in shame right about now. Their failure to recognise that error before it happened is something that should never be forgotten. It’s also, again only my opinion, a decision that cost in the region of 20,000 lives.

As for what’s happening now, yes, death rates are low and infection rates are relatively high. That’s because we’re dealing with a virus that overcomes those with an already slight immune system. Those who are being infected now are those who were definitely being infected in March/April, but because our government decided to only test those ill enough to be in hospital, those infections at that time were simply not picked up.

There isn’t a big mystery here at all. This virus is highly transmissible and for the most part, risky to those with existing ailments. In the 8 months or so since we learned of its existence, we’ve learned how to control it better. Do not be at all surprised if cases rise to around 2500-3000 a day.

Our government have been aiming for herd immunity from the get go. They got caught with their pants down in March and made a mess of it. Now, they realise that 99.9% of our population can contract and survive this virus, they’re quite happy to send kids to school and people back to work. Some of us will get quite ill, less of us will get ill enough to end up in hospital. A minute percentage of us will die.

Covid-19 is nothing more than another life risk that we have to live with. We reacted early because we didn’t understand it. Science has had time to catch up with it now, and I’m genuinely beginning to think that we need to start getting a more sensible perspective on this whole thing.

Also worth noting care homes weren't even being included early on and the mortality rates were still far higher than now.

I also don't buy the masks being a reason for less cases without further analysis. It raises questions about why we don't have higher hospitalisation and mortality rates. I suspect it's more a combination of factors e.g. pubs (as if drunks will be distancing when they can't follow other rules/laws), relaxation by people as the perception it's gone, more people forced together by return to work. Masks may be a factor but these are greater reasons for younger generations to catch it. The mystery is what factors prevent the worth cases happening. Have our hospitals got better at treating it?

[MyNameIsTerry]

It was never an error. Given that certain advisers close to the PM believe in eugenics and have employed eugenicists before righteous public outrage saw them removed I'm afraid it doesn't surprise me one iota. This Government has always looked for the cheapest solution and that was "herd immunity". So what if it kills your nan? She was going to die anyway. The spectacle of the so-called "Nightingale Hospitals" was just a PR stunt because they didn't have appropriate staff to man them.

Conspiracy theorist? No, just a realist who knows a neo-Fascist Government when he sees one, and I don't say that lightly. They're a bunch of clueless chancers who were elected solely to "get Brexit done" to appease Northern xenophobes and enable their mates to make a killing on 'shorting' Sterling when it all goes tits-up on 1/1/21.

We're not all xenophobes up here, regardless of the way we voted in the referendum.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I honestly feel a bit dumb here. I still don't get it. In July the numbers were around 1,000 reported cases and deaths around 100. 2 weeks ago the reported cases was around 1,000 but death rates higher. I don't get how in 1 month the cases are the same, but deaths absurdly low in comparison to the same figures in July. I hope I make sense here.

Ohhhh wait I think I get it.

Because more people are tested now it's revealing large numbers of less-symptomatic people that otherwise wouldn't have been picked up. So the testing is now catching the young etc who are not at risk of death.

Literally clocked it as I was writing so I'll continue to post this to show where my thinking was off. This is why I ask these questions because I know somewhere there's a logical explanation.

Yes, all the way from the start we were told the mortality rate would be around 2%. My local area was reporting 11-13% all the way once it really kicked off. The numbers were heavily skewed because they only reported those most likely to die i.e. hospitalised.

Germany reported the lot. Their numbers were much lower.

[Lencoboy]

The positive cases now are largely in folk who are either routinely screened, such as care home workers and healthcare workers, and people who kind of maybe have symptoms of Covid-19. The way I see it, if we were seeing 10,000 new cases per day when testing was kept for those who required medical intervention, you could probably add another 10,000 people to that list who either had mild illness or no symptoms at all.

As much as nobody wants to see the new cases rise, there is absolutely no question, for me anyway, that the rate of true new infections in the UK now are absolutely nowhere near what they were at the peak. Do also keep in mind that we are testing at a rate far and above what we were at the peak, and the percentages of positive tests are still incredibly low when measured up against tests performed. In Scotland, the rate of positive cases per day is around 1.8% of those tested. That’s honestly almost low enough to be called negligible.

Very wise words there, Gary.

I think the problem with a lot of people, especially the 'serial pessimist' that I know, is so-called 'confirmation bias'.

On a more positive note, have a look at Dr Campbell's latest vid on YouTube, incidentally titled 'Optimism'.

[Gary A]

Yes, all the way from the start we were told the mortality rate would be around 2%. My local area was reporting 11-13% all the way once it really kicked off. The numbers were heavily skewed because they only reported those most likely to die i.e. hospitalised.

Germany reported the lot. Their numbers were much lower.

Recent research by Queen Mary university is suggesting that gp’s recorded around 9000 suspected cases between February and April. These were never entered into official figures as these cases were never tested.

Obviously not all of those will be absolute cases, but at that time, during the peak in the UK, a fair percentage must have been. That’s not even mentioning those with mild illness or those asymptomatic cases that never went as far as reporting symptoms to a gp.

The study suggests that, at the height of the pandemic, cases were 3 times higher than those officially recorded.

It has always been inevitable that as time went by we would get a better and more accurate grasp on the true scale of infections and be able to more accurately deduce an actual mortality rate. At this point even a 2% mortality rate is looking quite wide of the mark.

[fishman65]

Dr Campbell has suggested a mortality rate as low as 0.3% However its not just about deaths, there is what has been dubbed 'long covid' where people suffer symptoms for months after the initial infection.

[pulisa]

Isn't Long Covid just a version of post viral syndrome? I've had chronic pain since having pleurisy nearly 3 years ago..Is it anything new or yet another Covid-related phenomenon receiving too much media attention?