Noticed something odd about the numbers

[Lencoboy]

It does seem that the way daily cases are compiled on the Covid Dashboard site has become a bit of a joke of late.

Probably already was a joke before, but at least they have finally come clean and prefaced the home page with the disclaimer notice alerting us to the likelihood of vast increases in daily confirmed cases over the coming days due to both technical issues and backlogs in counting since 24th September, rather than massive increases in actual infections.

[Lencoboy]

Although I've been trying not to get too bogged down with the daily Covid stats over the past week or so, I have noticed that over the same period the daily cases have barely skyrocketed (last Tuesday was the highest with 19k odd cases) but seem to have remained mostly stable, though yo-yoing every other day on average. At the same time the news headlines have continued their gloomy narrative with Wales now set for a fortnight of national lockdown.

I wonder how long it will be before both Boris and Nicky are forced to bite the bullet and do the same in England and Scotland, respectively?

It does seem like all the restrictions introduced over recent weeks aren't working so far.

Personally, I wouldn't have any issue with a 2-week lockdown over Christmas,
which would probably make us reflect on the true meaning of the festive season which had sadly been lost over the years.

Meanwhile, there still barely seems to be any news on the progress of the Covid vaccines.

[Gary A]

Meanwhile, there still barely seems to be any news on the progress of the Covid vaccines.

Pfizer have started mass producing their vaccine which indicates that trial results are going well. Same goes for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. They have to gather the data and asses it, no easy task in trails that include tens of thousands of people. There also must be enough positive cases within those groups to have reference point.

The earliest we’re going to see any type of vaccine is December this year. As for people under the age of 60 with no long term health issues, we’re about two to three years away from being inoculated. Those most at risk will get it first, then essential workers with age or health risks. Part of me thinks that the majority of the population won’t even be offered it once the most at risk are inoculated, as the sting from the pandemic is gone at that point.

The percentages of deaths and hospitalisations of younger fitter people are so low that it may render inoculation of those groups utterly pointless and basically a waste of resources.

[Lencoboy]

Pfizer have started mass producing their vaccine which indicates that trial results are going well. Same goes for the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine. They have to gather the data and asses it, no easy task in trails that include tens of thousands of people. There also must be enough positive cases within those groups to have reference point.

The earliest we’re going to see any type of vaccine is December this year. As for people under the age of 60 with no long term health issues, we’re about two to three years away from being inoculated. Those most at risk will get it first, then essential workers with age or health risks. Part of me thinks that the majority of the population won’t even be offered it once the most at risk are inoculated, as the sting from the pandemic is gone at that point.

The percentages of deaths and hospitalisations of younger fitter people are so low that it may render inoculation of those groups utterly pointless and basically a waste of resources.

I do see your point there.

Perhaps hopefully once the first groups have been vaccinated the R-rate will probably start to drop, which will be a start.

[Gary A]

I do see your point there.

Perhaps hopefully once the first groups have been vaccinated the R-rate will probably start to drop, which will be a start.

The aim is to get hospitalisations and deaths to as low a level as possible. If you can prevent, or greatly reduce the risk of those with higher risk factors being infected, then you‘ve pretty much blown the virus out of the water.

If the R is above one but that rate is only in those with little to no risk factors then all of a sudden the R loses significance. High infection rates amongst young fit people aren’t going to overwhelm healthcare systems, it’s not going to take a high amount of lives.

I think those of us who don’t suffer with adverse health or who are below a certain age need to be prepared to step aside for those who need it more. We need that vaccine but we need it to protect those most at risk. It’s going to be a few years before we can say that we’re all immune to this coronavirus.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Pfizer. The company that tried to screw the NHS in recent times over prices by blocking out non branded.

Better watch them over this. In the US the issue exists that drug companies greatly overcharge for critical meds.

[Lencoboy]

It does sadly seem like we've lost control of the virus here in the UK, we're now above 20k cases today, but hardly surprising though.

Though we're not quite at 50k per day at this stage as originally predicted a few weeks back, I do predict that what's about to happen in Wales might well also be on the horizon in England and Scotland in due course.

In some ways I now kind of wish Boris would just bite the bullet and lock England down as well for a fortnight at the same time as Wales.

[glassgirlw]

This was the news this morning where I live. Daily media update given by a group of hospital docs, and health Dept officials....they’re usually pretty trustworthy and the only news I watch related to Covid.

• Pfizer has announced that it will have a vaccine available sometime in mid-November.
• Distribution will be rolled out in phases – with the first two being fairly close together – vaccinating hospital workers and those in vulnerable populations, such as long-term care facilities.
• There will be a very limited amount of vaccine available immediately, but then production and distribution is expected to ramp up with it being fully available in the marketplace after mid-2021.
• Pfizer has secured service agreements with Walgreens and CVS to vaccinate residents of senior care facilities.
• It’s likely that many vaccines will be introduced around the same time. How do people decide which one to choose or whether or not to be vaccinated? Doctors recommend you follow the science. Following FDA approval, there will be extensive product reviews by an advisory council. Those reviews will also be important to follow.
• And as vaccines are released, there will be changes as new discoveries are made. It could become very confusing.

[Lencoboy]

There's definitely been something rather odd about the numbers the past 2-3 days.

Tuesday the daily case count went up to 21k odd, yesterday (Wednesday) went up even further to 26k odd, and today (Thursday) back down again to 21k odd.

I wonder if there's still been issues with undercounting, then followed by overcounting of daily cases as a consequence, like at the end of September and the very beginning of this month (October)?

[dorabella]

I think that SAGE and the three horsemen of the apocalypse (Whitty, Handcock and Valance) are just using whatever data is available to justify their ridiculous agenda ... poor old Boris is forced to spout this nonsense and you can clearly see he's not convinced, together with a lot of the population how are questioning this whole sorry saga. If the government did a u-turn now and admitted that the have got it all wrong and let's try another approach they would get a hell of a lot of stick for whatever ensues.

So many stats flying about and it is impossible to make sense of any any of them ... the govt could tell us that on the basis of their statistics green is now orange with red spots and we would have no way of proving it isn't.

I agree in part with Gary, in that it appears the R-number is being driven by mostly younger, lower-risk generations, hence the NHS is not being overwhelmed. Herd immunity (oooh that dirty word) could be eased in if the government would just engage in some joined-up thinking, stop the panic and doom mongering, and make an effort to protect the more vulnerable in the population and treat the rest of us like adults who can exercise some common sense and evaluate the risk for ourselves. We might then see a better way out of this mess they have created. Can't keep locking everyone up until they find a vaccine .... which by the time they do will most likely not be of any use to the majority of the population who will have already reached a level of HI.