Noticed something odd about the numbers

[Lencoboy]

I think that SAGE and the three horsemen of the apocalypse (Whitty, Handcock and Valance) are just using whatever data is available to justify their ridiculous agenda ... poor old Boris is forced to spout this nonsense and you can clearly see he's not convinced, together with a lot of the population how are questioning this whole sorry saga. If the government did a u-turn now and admitted that the have got it all wrong and let's try another approach they would get a hell of a lot of stick for whatever ensues.

So many stats flying about and it is impossible to make sense of any any of them ... the govt could tell us that on the basis of their statistics green is now orange with red spots and we would have no way of proving it isn't.

I agree in part with Gary, in that it appears the R-number is being driven by mostly younger, lower-risk generations, hence the NHS is not being overwhelmed. Herd immunity (oooh that dirty word) could be eased in if the government would just engage in some joined-up thinking, stop the panic and doom mongering, and make an effort to protect the more vulnerable in the population and treat the rest of us like adults who can exercise some common sense and evaluate the risk for ourselves. We might then see a better way out of this mess they have created. Can't keep locking everyone up until they find a vaccine .... which by the time they do will most likely not be of any use to the majority of the population who will have already reached a level of HI.

I think I agree with many of your views there Dorabella.

It does seem that the govt are now mostly the ones getting hysterical about this so-called 'second' bout and much of the general public now blasé about the whole situation, seemingly the opposite to earlier in the year when it was much of the general public who were quaking in their boots at the Covid situation and the govt initially seeming uninterested with their heads in the sand.

Surely the govt, as much of a joke as I and many others think they are, will still get it in the neck whatever they say or do (or not). Keir and Co would no doubt be copping it just the same as Boris and Co right now had they been in power, and very likely the same for the Lib Dems, Green Party, UKIP, BNP, you name them!

I mentioned in the other thread earlier today about yesterday's BBC News reports of the UK's overall R-rate declining slightly over the previous week, and while some will no doubt pipe up with something like 'well it just ain't good enough', or 'it's too little too late', well that may well be so but even just a small downward trend for me is still far better than no downward trend, or in the worst-case scenario, the trend going from bad to even worse, which it seems like has been happening relentlessly over the past few weeks.

Though strangely, I'm no longer feel anywhere near as freaked out over it now like I did earlier in the year, in spite of the Covid situation getting worse again since the end of August.

[Lencoboy]

YIKES! 33k cases today!

Why the sudden increase?

No explanation from anyone or anywhere thus far.

Even the BBC haven't yet elaborated on the possible reasons for this sudden jump.

What the hell has been going on?

More 'lost' cases from several days/weeks ago suddenly showed up?

The mass testing pilot programme in Liverpool?

More actual people suddenly becoming infected over the past 24 hours?

Especially when we're the first week into this second 'so-called' lockdown!

[AntsyVee]

Probably Guy Fawkes day/Halloween/Dia de los Muertos/Samhein. Our cases have seen huge spikes this week because people got together over Halloween/Dia de Los Muertos. Unfortunately, people don't follow the rules on holidays, and with Diwali, Thanksgiving (here) and Chanukah and Christmas coming up, I think it's only going to get worse.

[WiredIncorrectly]

Probably Guy Fawkes day/Halloween/Dia de los Muertos/Samhein. Our cases have seen huge spikes this week because people got together over Halloween/Dia de Los Muertos. Unfortunately, people don't follow the rules on holidays, and with Diwali, Thanksgiving (here) and Chanukah and Christmas coming up, I think it's only going to get worse.

I think it needs a couple more weeks to see any changes. At the moment it's constantly rising, but the lockdown is 1 week in. People will be showing symptoms round about now if they caught it pre-lockdown.

It's kind of like how I posted this thread and at first death rates were low (they're still very low compared to the infection numbers so that's a huge positive). My lawyer brother said "That will increase give it 2-3 weeks". He was right. It might be the same case here. Too early to begin to see any changes.

See, I am a source of positive information too I'm not always a pessimist.

[tommeasor]

People still have good levels of vitamin D from the summer sunshine; but not enough to stop them being ill, but enough to stop them dying from Covid-19. However, as there vitamin D levels drop off, death rates will start to rise again. I’ve been telling people to take vitamin D since last March, as vitamin D is the crucial ingredient for our immune systems to work. It’s not really a vitamin but a hormone, a hormone that regulates the immune system, telling ‘T’ cells to kill the virus and telling ‘B’ cells to make antibodies. It also regulates inflammation in the lungs, which is killing people. It’s that important, that the UK government is going to deliver two months supply to millions of vulnerable people in Britain in the next few weeks! I took 100ug (4000 IU’s) for a few month, got a vitamin D blood test from my doctor and it was 40ng/ml (100 nmol/l), which is where you want it. Does it work? Well I’m 72 with lot’s of underlying illnesses and my wife is 56. She got the virus and was ill for a week but I must have caught the virus but had no symptoms, but to verify I did actually get the virus, I was lucky to be picked for a random antibody test by the NHS, and it was positive. I did get the virus but my immune system – thanks to good vitamin D levels – killed it before it could hurt me, or possibly kill me.

[AntsyVee]

Vitamin D certainly helps, but it's not as simple as take vitamin D and you won't get Covid. I'm not saying not to encourage people to take vitamin D, please do encourage them. But for those who don't spend their time educating themselves about this situation, I don't want to over-simplify it. There is so much misinformation out there already.

[MyNameIsTerry]

YIKES! 33k cases today!

Why the sudden increase?

No explanation from anyone or anywhere thus far.

Even the BBC haven't yet elaborated on the possible reasons for this sudden jump.

What the hell has been going on?

More 'lost' cases from several days/weeks ago suddenly showed up?

The mass testing pilot programme in Liverpool?

More actual people suddenly becoming infected over the past 24 hours?

Especially when we're the first week into this second 'so-called' lockdown!

A paramedic just told me about this number and said they haven't been told yet. He did say it was going up like mad.

[MyNameIsTerry]

Vitamin D certainly helps, but it's not as simple as take vitamin D and you won't get Covid. I'm not saying not to encourage people to take vitamin D, please do encourage them. But for those who don't spend their time educating themselves about this situation, I don't want to over-simplify it. There is so much misinformation out there already.

I would also advise caution. I can't remember the dosage without checking but D3 above a certain mg meds a balancing dose of vitamin k otherwise it causes calcified deposits in your bloodstream. And when I last looked into this there were D3 supplements on places like EBay that were above this.

[MyNameIsTerry]

People still have good levels of vitamin D from the summer sunshine; but not enough to stop them being ill, but enough to stop them dying from Covid-19. However, as there vitamin D levels drop off, death rates will start to rise again. I’ve been telling people to take vitamin D since last March, as vitamin D is the crucial ingredient for our immune systems to work. It’s not really a vitamin but a hormone, a hormone that regulates the immune system, telling ‘T’ cells to kill the virus and telling ‘B’ cells to make antibodies. It also regulates inflammation in the lungs, which is killing people. It’s that important, that the UK government is going to deliver two months supply to millions of vulnerable people in Britain in the next few weeks! I took 100ug (4000 IU’s) for a few month, got a vitamin D blood test from my doctor and it was 40ng/ml (100 nmol/l), which is where you want it. Does it work? Well I’m 72 with lot’s of underlying illnesses and my wife is 56. She got the virus and was ill for a week but I must have caught the virus but had no symptoms, but to verify I did actually get the virus, I was lucky to be picked for a random antibody test by the NHS, and it was positive. I did get the virus but my immune system – thanks to good vitamin D levels – killed it before it could hurt me, or possibly kill me.

Just wanted to add to say that's great news about you and your wife.

[Lencoboy]

A paramedic just told me about this number and said they haven't been told yet. He did say it was going up like mad.

It's more that cases had seemingly levelled off for over a fortnight and all of a sudden they've skyrocketed.

Even more baffling is that it's seemingly over a single 24-hour period and the govt last night denied that there were any backlogs in counting and also insisted that the mass testing programme in Liverpool won't be showing up in the daily stats just yet.

I think we're also being misled about this second lockdown in England, where the term 'lockdown' is being used as a misnomer, as this is worlds apart from the first lockdown in the spring. If things deteriorate even further from today onwards perhaps (dare I say it) the govt should go the whole hog and repeat the very same restrictions from late March-May.

But sadly that would only wreck the economy all the more!

Perhaps yesterday could have been just a one-off blip and we might end up being back down to 20k-odd cases again (and hopefully lower) in due course.

Also the first vaccines will soon start gradually being rolled out over the coming weeks, which is a ray of hope.