Vaccine to fly

[WiredIncorrectly]

Of course it's possible, that's what Virus's do. If you've ever looked into Smallpox you'll know how awful it was. Some estimates suggest that it killed 20% of ALL humans that were ever born for nearly 3000 years. It mutated so fast and was so virulent (sic) that humans simply couldn't build up resistance to it fast enough.

However, corona viruses are a different kettle of fish. We know enough about how they work now and can predict with some degree of accuracy what's going to happen. Not 100% of course, but the science is there. The biggest weapon we have against large mutation is a vaccine, simply because it pushes the R number down so low that it simply can't spread.

We experience small mutations in the flu virus every year etc, but the immune memory from the last strain is almost always enough to not produce pandemic level problems.

That makes sense.

[Pamplemousse]

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-ceo-immunity-passports/

[WiredIncorrectly]

https://simpleflying.com/qantas-ceo-immunity-passports/

I think a lot places are going to do this because it will allow them to open up business and run as normal.

Despite some promising trial results, no COVID-19 vaccine is yet available and there is no guarantee one will become available. But Alan Joyce has long been bullish about a vaccine as a way out of his airline’s COVID-19 woes.

This is the type of stuff that worries people like me. It makes my brain think "that's conflicting with what I've just read". Argh I shouldn't have opened that.

[pulisa]

Do you think there's any chance the virus could mutate and make the vaccine useless? I haven't heard anybody say this, and I'm not even going to Google it. It was literally something that I thought as I was reading your reply.

I'm sure you will have googled it by now though....? Remember how suggestible you are to online "information"!

[pulisa]

I'm amazed how many virologists and epidemiologists are dusting down their PhDs in order to proffer their opinions to the media..

It's all guesswork no matter how many letters they have after their names

[ankietyjoe]

I'm amazed how many virologists and epidemiologists are dusting down their PhDs in order to proffer their opinions to the media..

It's all guesswork no matter how many letters they have after their names

Well no it's not really. This has been studied in detail for decades, and there are certain patterns that can be predicted.

Of course it depends on data in, which is dependent on the behavioral patterns of the general public. Taiwan was a good example of predictive action, where the government put strict guidelines in place almost immediately, predicted that numbers would be X in around 6 weeks and that's exactly what happened. That's mainly because the population just put their bloody masks on and didn't start whining about freedom.

[WiredIncorrectly]

I'm sure you will have googled it by now though....? Remember how suggestible you are to online "information"!

I haven't Googled it yet. I seem to be ok with resisting Google atm. Probably because I'm vey busy.

[WiredIncorrectly]

Taiwan was a good example of predictive action, where the government put strict guidelines in place almost immediately, predicted that numbers would be X in around 6 weeks and that's exactly what happened. That's mainly because the population just put their bloody masks on and didn't start whining about freedom.

That's why I feel this country should be doing the same. I don't understand the reason for opening pubs and restaurants because they're breeding grounds. All seems a bit ludicrous. It sucks to be in this situation but I think we all need to be patient and proactive.

Good things come to those that wait?

[pulisa]

Well no it's not really. This has been studied in detail for decades, and there are certain patterns that can be predicted.

Of course it depends on data in, which is dependent on the behavioral patterns of the general public. Taiwan was a good example of predictive action, where the government put strict guidelines in place almost immediately, predicted that numbers would be X in around 6 weeks and that's exactly what happened. That's mainly because the population just put their bloody masks on and didn't start whining about freedom.

It all depends on compliance and human behaviour and the Great British Public please themselves because they can.

[ankietyjoe]

That's why I feel this country should be doing the same. I don't understand the reason for opening pubs and restaurants because they're breeding grounds. All seems a bit ludicrous. It sucks to be in this situation but I think we all need to be patient and proactive.

Good things come to those that wait?

We absolutely should be doing it too, but for whatever reason we have a large minority of people who 'know better'.

I will concede that some concessions need to be made to the economy and you can't just expect every single person in the country who can't work from home to just suck it up, but we as a population really do need to play ball a bit more and stop whining like little babies about our 'lost freedoms'. It's pathetic.

It all depends on compliance and human behaviour and the Great British Public please themselves because they can.

Yes I completely agree, I'm just suggesting that it's not all a big guessing game. There are very sophisticated modelling tools out there that can predict multiple levels of outcome in startling accuracy.