My COVID Prediction

[ankietyjoe]

To my knowledge (could be incorrect) but there's currently no way of knowing how long the vaccine will last. If one presumes the vaccine will only provide short term vaccination then it poses a significant problem.

For it to work it would require mass vaccine rollout. Everybody have the jab at around about the same time. And this assumes everyone will have the vaccine.

If not, the vaccinated are still carriers, who pass it to the non vaccinated and the non vaccinated pass it back to the previously vaccinated who now need a re-jab again. There will be a large number of people who can't have the vaccine.

1 in 200 people have a nut allergy. That's one group of people that won't be able to have the current vaccine.

With respect (again) J, you're completely wrong here and making some assumptions.

People with allergies CAN be vaccinated as there will be a number of options, and even those that DO react will be treated swiftly. Source, my sons best friend who has a lethal nut allergy and will be getting the vaccination as soon as possible with the proper monitoring.

Furthermore, the point of the vaccine isn't just to stop people getting the virus, it's also to stop the virus mutating as fast as it would otherwise, and to encourage global herd immunity, effectively stopping the spread dead.

Furthermore (2) - The first round of vaccinations can help boost the immune response to a point that your body knows how to react to any altered strains in the future, creating a far smaller global health issue than we currently experience. Source, a friend of mine in the USA who is a clinical research biologist (with a speciality in RNA vaccines, mostly for cancer research) who I have been talking to about this since day one.

You can't just look at this as a black and white issue where a vaccine has to be 100% effective AND everybody has to have it or 'what's the point'.

[Gary A]

To my knowledge (could be incorrect) but there's currently no way of knowing how long the vaccine will last. If one presumes the vaccine will only provide short term vaccination then it poses a significant problem.

For it to work it would require mass vaccine rollout. Everybody have the jab at around about the same time. And this assumes everyone will have the vaccine.

If not, the vaccinated are still carriers, who pass it to the non vaccinated and the non vaccinated pass it back to the previously vaccinated who now need a re-jab again. There will be a large number of people who can't have the vaccine.

1 in 200 people have a nut allergy. That's one group of people that won't be able to have the current vaccine.

60% effective at absolute worst is a good result. It’s also up to 90% effective. We need to wait for more study to be put into this vaccine before racing to conclusions.

Let’s say for talking sake the vaccine is only 60% effective. That means that infection and death rates would be 60% less than what they are right now. Combine that with advancements in treatment and the fact that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is far from the only vaccine that will be available, we have multiple weapons against this.

We need to stop treating this virus like some indestructible harbinger of the apocalypse. The biggest problem we have with it is how young it is. It’s still only been in existence for around a year and if you consider that in that time we have sequenced it’s genetics, found a weakness and produced a vaccine that will exploit that weakness. That’s a remarkable achievement in such a short time, so to say that we won’t see a change to this in our lifetimes is just not reality.

[WiredIncorrectly]

Joe, my predictions have been correct numerous times. I don't claim to hold any special powers but it's logical. I hope in a years time I can eat my own hat mate, but sadly I think we'll still be in this same predicament.

Only time will tell on this one.

Ps. I said "If one presumes". Which means what I am saying is not fact, but a thing that could in the future be a concern. I've ensured all my words are correct so one can not assume I am speaking in tin foil hat mode. The world needs the pessimist as much as the optimist.

[WiredIncorrectly]

60% effective at absolute worst is a good result. It’s also up to 90% effective. We need to wait for more study to be put into this vaccine before racing to conclusions.

Let’s say for talking sake the vaccine is only 60% effective. That means that infection and death rates would be 60% less than what they are right now. Combine that with advancements in treatment and the fact that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is far from the only vaccine that will be available, we have multiple weapons against this.

We need to stop treating this virus like some indestructible harbinger of the apocalypse. The biggest problem we have with it is how young it is. It’s still only been in existence for around a year and if you consider that in that time we have sequenced it’s genetics, found a weakness and produced a vaccine that will exploit that weakness. That’s a remarkable achievement in such a short time, so to say that we won’t see a change to this in our lifetimes is just not reality.

Please can everybody on this thread not turn this into another pissing debate.

Please ensure you know what the word "presumes" means. Don't get me started on this today. I'm in a foul mood already.

[WiredIncorrectly]

I need to do an article on this. Too many people here (and elsewhere) don't know how to interpret what is written.

[WiredIncorrectly]

My signature makes it perfectly clear now. Don't even start this one.

[MyNameIsTerry]

60% effective at absolute worst is a good result. It’s also up to 90% effective. We need to wait for more study to be put into this vaccine before racing to conclusions.

Let’s say for talking sake the vaccine is only 60% effective. That means that infection and death rates would be 60% less than what they are right now. Combine that with advancements in treatment and the fact that the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is far from the only vaccine that will be available, we have multiple weapons against this.

We need to stop treating this virus like some indestructible harbinger of the apocalypse. The biggest problem we have with it is how young it is. It’s still only been in existence for around a year and if you consider that in that time we have sequenced it’s genetics, found a weakness and produced a vaccine that will exploit that weakness. That’s a remarkable achievement in such a short time, so to say that we won’t see a change to this in our lifetimes is just not reality.

And that's a very simple assumption since breaking the pattern of spread will only increase that % as less people are able to pass it on. Some may never come into contact with others who have it or be close enough to transmit it. So, 60% would be a very safe figure.

[ankietyjoe]

I've ensured all my words are correct so one can not assume I am speaking in tin foil hat mode.

Well no they're not. They're completely 100% incorrect about the allergy sufferers not getting the vaccine.

They will get the vaccine, with precautions in place to avoid or treat any kind of reaction. Just the same as they do with every single child that has any kind of vaccine in a school setting.



If you're bothered about the way I pick at some of your posts, rest assured that I am equally as vociferous about similar half truths I see on both social media AND face to face with friends and family. There is SO much bullshit being spread about this virus AND the vaccines, we don't actually need MORE ignorant pessimism. It's a dangerous precedent for Covid denial.

[Gary A]

Please can everybody on this thread not turn this into another pissing debate.

Please ensure you know what the word "presumes" means. Don't get me started on this today. I'm in a foul mood already.

Oh I forgot, unless everybody completely agrees with every word you type you throw a world class hissy.

Sorry, my mistake for only trying to put things into a bit less of a gloomy perspective.

[NoraB]

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When you take a peek at a thread and see the shit that's going down...