Tip of the iceberg?

[Lencoboy]

With all the stuff in the news about the South African Covid variants in the news over the past week or so, I can't help but wonder if there is a sense of deja vu over this time last year, when there only seemed to be only just a handful of known cases of the original Covid strain present within our shores, but by the end of last February through the beginning of April (soon after the start of the first lockdown), cases suddenly skyrocketed.

Also it's still widely speculated that back then it's highly likely that actual infections were far higher than was actually realised at the time, so I am now wondering the same about the more recently discovered SA variant, whether or not infections with it might actually be far more widespread than we currently know?

Then again, the main differences between then and now are that (obviously) vaccines were nothing but a distant dream, plus there were still no such thing as lockdowns/restrictions this time last year, which there most certainly are of both now one year on, which are more likely to help contain the spread of the SA variant more successfully.

But surely, like the original strain exactly a year ago, this must be just the tip of the iceberg?

[Gary A]

Not really. We are testing at a far higher level than we were last year. If you recall, the only folk who were tested were those ill enough to be hospitalised. That certainly isn’t the case now, with mass testing performed on symptomless people and those who have symptoms encouraged to be tested.

I think there could be more cases that we don’t know about, but it’s estimated that we were missing around 95% of new infections in the beginning, I don’t think that’s anywhere near what’s going on right now.

[WiredIncorrectly]

FWIW data on testing etc can be found here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Lencoboy]

Not really. We are testing at a far higher level than we were last year. If you recall, the only folk who were tested were those ill enough to be hospitalised. That certainly isn’t the case now, with mass testing performed on symptomless people and those who have symptoms encouraged to be tested.

I think there could be more cases that we don’t know about, but it’s estimated that we were missing around 95% of new infections in the beginning, I don’t think that’s anywhere near what’s going on right now.

It does seem that overall community testing is being ramped up big time now, which will of course detect all cases in general, regardless of strain.

Hopefully the authorities have learned from a lot of their mistakes this time last year when they were too slow to act, and therefore don't want to be caught napping again this time round.

[Fishmanpa]

Looking at this from the big picture and realistically, we're in the infancy of this pandemic. The virus is mutating and will continue to do that. That's what viruses do and all one needs to do is look at the flu virus and how it's mutated over the years. Yes, there's a difference as COVID seems to be much more aggressive but medical science has been able to adapt and the vaccines will be modified to adjust to it. In the mean time, there is no timeline nor is it productive to speculate. Wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands. There's only so much we have in our control at the moment. We'll get there but in the mean time, use common sense!

Positive thoughts

[Lencoboy]

Looking at this from the big picture and realistically, we're in the infancy of this pandemic. The virus is mutating and will continue to do that. That's what viruses do and all one needs to do is look at the flu virus and how it's mutated over the years. Yes, there's a difference as COVID seems to be much more aggressive but medical science has been able to adapt and the vaccines will be modified to adjust to it. In the mean time, there is no timeline nor is it productive to speculate. Wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands. There's only so much we have in our control at the moment. We'll get there but in the mean time, use common sense!

Positive thoughts

That's pretty much what I believe. Covid will very likely in due course become just another seasonal 'flu-like' virus, which we never really made that big a deal out of pre-2020.