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Thread: Here we go ... again.

  1. #1
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    Here we go ... again.

    Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. But I predicted by end of May we'll be in trouble with COVID.

    It takes weeks before we see the after effects of lockdown lifting, but I believe it's coming. The stats are not looking healthy at all.

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  2. #2
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    You must be glad you've had your vaccines then, James?

  3. #3
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Quote Originally Posted by WiredIncorrectly View Post
    Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. But I predicted by end of May we'll be in trouble with COVID.

    It takes weeks before we see the after effects of lockdown lifting, but I believe it's coming. The stats are not looking healthy at all.

    9Wo7zD8.png
    What about those stats leads you to believe weíll be in trouble by the end of May? Cases arenít dropping at the rate they were around a month ago but thatís inevitable with lockdown easing.

    The fact of the matter is that new infections simply donít have the same implications as they once did. The vast majority of people at risk of bad outcomes from Covid are now well protected by vaccination.

    The blunt truth is that this virus isnít the same beast it was only a few months ago. The evidence of that is the continued plunging of deaths and hospitalisations while cases seem to have hit a bit of a plateau.

  4. #4
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary A View Post
    What about those stats leads you to believe weíll be in trouble by the end of May? Cases arenít dropping at the rate they were around a month ago but thatís inevitable with lockdown easing.

    The fact of the matter is that new infections simply donít have the same implications as they once did. The vast majority of people at risk of bad outcomes from Covid are now well protected by vaccination.

    The blunt truth is that this virus isnít the same beast it was only a few months ago. The evidence of that is the continued plunging of deaths and hospitalisations while cases seem to have hit a bit of a plateau.
    Correct Gary.

    While I totally understand WIC's concerns, it's probably best for us all at this stage not to jump to conclusions that the 'third wave' has started in the UK.

    I admit to being concerned about a week ago when overall daily cases first started edging up again, and wondering whether or not a fourth lockdown was inevitable. Dr JC also bemoaned the govt of having been caught napping over the Indian variant and as usual leaving it until the eleventh hour before adding India to the 'red list'.

    On Monday (10th May) the next proposed easements were officially given the go-ahead by the govt and all the other relevant organisations ready for next Monday (17th May), plus the national Covid threat level was downgraded from 4 to 3, none of which would have happened if the UK was seriously on the brink of a third wave.

    And like you said Gary, upticks in overall daily cases (at current rates) don't seem to have the same implications they previously had, especially pre-vaccines, plus the most vulnerable have now already had both jabs.

    But it's obviously still very much a 'wait and see' situation.

  5. #5
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Scientific advisers for the government themselves have said that any third wave is highly likely to be far less severe and easily manageable as far as the NHS is concerned.

    They are now in the zone of accepting that this virus is endemic. The vaccines against Covid-19 are far more effective than even the best flu vaccines, yet we donít lock the nation down when flu cases spike during winter months.

    Lockdown was a stall until vaccines were made, tested and distributed. Almost all of those clinically at risk have been fully vaccinated as we speak. In a few months the entire adult population will be vaccinated.

    Lockdowns, as far as Iím concerned, are over. We have the tools to fight this virus, we canít keep running and hiding from it.

  6. #6
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gary A View Post
    Scientific advisers for the government themselves have said that any third wave is highly likely to be far less severe and easily manageable as far as the NHS is concerned.

    They are now in the zone of accepting that this virus is endemic. The vaccines against Covid-19 are far more effective than even the best flu vaccines, yet we donít lock the nation down when flu cases spike during winter months.

    Lockdown was a stall until vaccines were made, tested and distributed. Almost all of those clinically at risk have been fully vaccinated as we speak. In a few months the entire adult population will be vaccinated.

    Lockdowns, as far as Iím concerned, are over. We have the tools to fight this virus, we canít keep running and hiding from it.
    I agree that evidence now increasingly seems to be implying that full-on lockdowns aren't really warranted in this country anymore, and most scientists/experts seem to agree that if ever we do end up having some kind of 'third wave' in this country later this year, it will hopefully be less severe and far more manageable for the NHS and the like, plus the vast majority of our population should be fully vaccinated by then, coupled with greater levels of herd immunity.

    Like you said, pre-Covid we never locked down during severe seasonal flu outbreaks, even with healthcare facilities being more overwhelmed than usual on some occasions, neither did we lock down during the Swine Flu pandemic of 2009.

  7. #7
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Gary, is literally my 'go to' sensible COVID information source !

  8. #8
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carys View Post
    Gary, is literally my 'go to' sensible COVID information source !
    Agreed.

  9. #9
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    As my refusenik sister said: don't look at the number of cases, but look at hospitalisations and deaths.

  10. #10
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    Re: Here we go ... again.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pamplemousse View Post
    As my refusenik sister said: don't look at the number of cases, but look at hospitalisations and deaths.
    Yes you're right. Hospitalisations and deaths have generally continued to decline despite the fluctuations in daily cases over the past 3-4 weeks or so, coupled with the concerns over the Indian, SA and Brazilian variants during the same period.

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