19th July Reopening

[Lencoboy]

It isn’t, and I genuinely haven’t heard anyone saying it is. Herd immunity probably isn’t going to happen either, given that we’re now dealing with a variant that is ridiculously more transmissible than the variant first detected in Wuhan.

As for the vaccine not working, I again have to point out that case levels seen over the past month or so would have previously seen is thrown into strict lockdown, hospitals would be jam packed and we’d probably be dealing with around 300-400 deaths per day.

As it is, hospitals are dealing with this with relative ease, death rates are around the same as daily fatal road accidents and with every day that passes we’re putting highly protective vaccines in the arms of tens of thousands more people.

As it stands, we remove restrictions. The data says it’s right. If the data starts to show huge growths in severe illness, we put the brakes on. At a certain point we need to fight this bloody virus, running and hiding is, at this point, no longer an option.

Some very good points there, Gary, especially what you said about case numbers over the past month or so which 6-12 months ago would have automatically meant far more hospitalisations and deaths, plus inadvertently, full-on national lockdowns. And all without the jabs.

For a bit of perspective and context;

Today's cases: 32,548.
Today's deaths: 33.
Latest hospitalisations: 386 (3/7/21).
Latest daily Covid tests: 968,588.

(And with 86% now having received their first jab and 64% having received their second).

Compare that to the first time daily Covid cases exceeded 30k, on 12th November 2020, on that date;

Cases: 33,470.
Deaths: 563.
Hospitalisations: 1,687 (4 days earlier).
Daily Covid tests: 377,608.

(And all still pre-vaccines).

Quite a significant difference with the deaths, hospitalisations and even tests then vs now when measured against roughly similar case numbers on both occasions.

However, I agree with Pulisa that we still need to keep a close watch on the clinically vulnerable and immunocompromised, who are still most likely to slip through the net, despite their being double-jabbed.

As for those who are deliberately refusing the jabs (not counting those who have fully legit reasons for doing so) and still, inadvertently, ignoring and refusing to follow the guidelines, they can basically 'own' it and face the music!

Plus they're probably the ones who would most likely be having hissy fits if we were (heaven forbid) forced to have a fourth national lockdown!

I know I probably sound a bit harsh, but that's how I feel right now about the deniers and non-believers!

[Lencoboy]

Some very good points there, Gary, especially what you said about case numbers over the past month or so which 6-12 months ago would have automatically meant far more hospitalisations and deaths, plus inadvertently, full-on national lockdowns. And all without the jabs.

For a bit of perspective and context;

Today's cases: 32,548.
Today's deaths: 33.
Latest hospitalisations: 386 (3/7/21).
Latest daily Covid tests: 968,588.

(And with 86% now having received their first jab and 64% having received their second).

Compare that to the first time daily Covid cases exceeded 30k, on 12th November 2020, on that date;

Cases: 33,470.
Deaths: 563.
Hospitalisations: 1,687 (4 days earlier).
Daily Covid tests: 377,608.

(And all still pre-vaccines).

Quite a significant difference with the deaths, hospitalisations and even tests then vs now when measured against roughly similar case numbers on both occasions.

However, I agree with Pulisa that we still need to keep a close watch on the clinically vulnerable and immunocompromised, who are still most likely to slip through the net, despite their being double-jabbed.

As for those who are deliberately refusing the jabs (not counting those who have fully legit reasons for doing so) and still, inadvertently, ignoring and refusing to follow the guidelines, they can basically 'own' it and face the music!

Plus they're probably the ones who would most likely be having hissy fits if we were (heaven forbid) forced to have a fourth national lockdown!

I know I probably sound a bit harsh, but that's how I feel right now about the deniers and non-believers!

Also, whilst on the same subject, how ironic would it be if the pro-lockdown brigades were to protest en masse in central London (and other major cities) during the run up to the final easements currently proposed for 19th July?

[Gary A]

For a bit of perspective and context;

Nice to see someone actually doing this on this site rather than constantly hitting the panic button.

Lockdowns were a stall until vaccinations were administered. They have been administered. Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.

[Gary A]

On a lighter note, congratulations to all my English friends on here for reaching a major final. A bit of sunshine in an otherwise awful time.

[Lencoboy]

On a lighter note, congratulations to all my English friends on here for reaching a major final. A bit of sunshine in an otherwise awful time.

Thank you for your kind comments, Gary.

First time it's happened since 1966.

[Lencoboy]

Nice to see someone actually doing this on this site rather than constantly hitting the panic button.

Lockdowns were a stall until vaccinations were administered. They have been administered. Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.

Yes, I actually studied the dashboard site in depth, making the best possible side-by-side comparisons with the first (and previous) time that cases exceeded 30k last November.

Of course, we're still at the mercy of whether or not more harmful Covid variants even worse than Delta develop in due course, but so far so good.

[Carys]

Good 'perspective and context' stuff, illustrating what Gary (and reports) have been saying for a few weeks now.......good to see in numbers like that though.

Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.

Yup, seems so.......and so onwards we have to go.....living with what it is right now.

[MyNameIsTerry]

I think mask wearing and social distancing should continue since these aren't costing us any more than a little inconvenience. So I hope the NHS and business will continue given some PPE is already in place e.g. screens. I can't see the NHS changing this whilst Delta is in play. Granted, some costs remain to business (such as staff issued masks) but big business can weather that bill to their bottom line.

But it's not as simple as increased infection = increased mortality. It is, if you live in a corona-vacuum view of society. There has to be a measuring up of which is worse because regardless of which way, some are going to die. Cancer patients died during this period because the NHS wasn't running as normal. All those resources that exist to support us come at a cost that have to be balanced. If we lockdown for the rest of the year what is the impact on them? Vaccination means less impact allowing the NHS to refocus on it's BAU. But current rules prevent loved ones being there so I think we would welcome relaxation this way.

If NHS bosses can handle this whilst returning to other important treatments then the rock and hard place is more economical. After this all that mounting debt is going to hammer local services. No doubt people will complain when resources are cut and maybe taxes go up. Sadly belts will have to be tightened due to unforeseen circumstances. But many will moan anyway. Every party would have done similiar with lockdowns and financial support; some would have gone further and increased debt. But the cost is always coming back.

As services suffer you can bet so will people. Some may even die. The longer we postpone a return to some normality what is the impact downstream? Would less cancer drugs be purchased? Would less support to chronically ill people be available?

It will be interesting 5 years from now what experts believe to have been best. Future generations might be annoyed if we kick the can so far down the road they get saddled with it. Future patients denied treatments might disagree with previous strategies.

I do not agree with the personal responsibility route because it's a good way to wash your hands when you should be planning for pillocks. The government overreach mob (hard left and right) will complain but protection is more important than liberty to me in a health situation like this.

I still think it's important to understand why people are dying. It's still horrible if you are the unlucky family. But are we hoping for zero Covid when we think nothing of the many ways the same people die each year? Why don't we want all this PPE and extra rules then? Could it have made the difference? How do I know people dying are taking steps to protect themselves? Are the counting rules appropriate now?

It's always going to sound callous. We are back to pounds vs people. But at what point does Covid become another one of those which so many of us rarely consider unless it's in the media?

[Squishchips]

Nice to see someone actually doing this on this site rather than constantly hitting the panic button.

Lockdowns were a stall until vaccinations were administered. They have been administered. Unless anyone here fancies living in perpetual lockdown this really is as good as we’ve got right now.

I do understand what you are saying but I don't think it's hitting the panic button necessarily - it's now been seen this new variant can get through some of the vaccinated, we've got 30,000+ cases a day now and hospitalisations are going up (albeit nowhere near what it was thankfully!)

Over 100 doctors/scientists have now signed a letter saying these restrictions being removed early are dangerous (https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/s...869643268?s=21)

I agree lockdown needs to end but to end it without the simplest of measures (keeping mask wearing) is dangerous in my opinion.

I guess time will tell and I'm really hoping I'm wrong obviously. I do have a tendency to look at the worst case scenario so maybe I am hitting that panic button after all but I just don't see how any of this can be positive personally.

[spectrum123]

We have at least 10,000 deaths per year from flu, and we accept that, there has to be a level of deaths we must accept from covid now as it's clear it's not going away.